NFL DFS Week 8 Watch List: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks

Published: Oct 28, 2022
Updated: Friday, October 28 at 3:15pm ET
Our NFL Week 8 DFS research begins here with another lesson learned. After speaking with many of you over the past 48 hours, it sounds like we are seeing mixed results with regard to both our cash game and GPP tournament play. As you'll see below, the optimal lineups built from last week's NFL DFS Playbook were strong and would have easily cashed everywhere, but with so much Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf in the Example Lineups, many struggled to cash with those holes in your lineup. Nothing you can do about injuries. St. Brown and Metcalf were fantastic plays and had they stayed healthy, we'd be having a completely different discussion.
But that's a moot point. Taking a zero from one guy is one thing. Taking a second zero really puts you behind the 8-ball, especially if you miss at a key spot like quarterback. And that's where our trouble was. We were well-invested in Justin Herbert and also splashed in some Tom Brady for our cash lineups and those guys really stunk it up for us. With so many people re-investing in the Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase tandem for a second week in a row and having them pop off the way they did, struggles are going to happen. Even having all those running backs hit, it wasn't enough because so many others were also on Josh Jacobs and Kenneth Walker that they weren't difference-makers for us. It happens. Nothing to do but dust ourselves off and get back at it.
This should be a real interesting week because of all the marquee names off the slate. With the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers on bye, we lose Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and a slew of supportive wideouts. But then we also lose Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with the Ravens and Bucs playing Thursday, we lose Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and all the Bills and Packers who play Sunday night and then we lose Burrow, Chase, Joe Mixon, NickChubb and Amari Cooper with a Monday Night Football match-up of the Bengals and Browns. Oh yeah! And there's a London game but I don't think any of us are going to miss the Broncos or the Jaguars.
This actually puts us at an advantage as those who don't dive into the research and just rely on lineup optimizers won't have the insights to find the mismatches, so I'm pretty excited for this week. They say in DFS you have to accept the peaks and valleys. This week, we're climbing to the top!
We've got our 7-day free trial (promo code BENDER) going on right now, so before we get to the players we are studying in this week's DFS Watch List, please allow me to welcome some of the new faces at Fantasy Alarm. Whether you have played daily fantasy football before or not, we appreciate you giving us the opportunity to help. So please allow me to give you the Welcome talk.
“If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he’ll eat for a lifetime.”
We take this adage to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.
Therefore, we will begin each week with the Weekly NFL DFS Watch List which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries, which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to Sunday kick-off. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.
So what exactly did last week's Playbook deliver? As always, we like to check in to ensure we remain on the right path.
Scoring The Playbook Week 7
As noted up above, the injury bug took a huge bite out of both our asses and out lineups last week. You can check the NFL Injury Report, but to sum it up – Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf both got hurt early on and were lost for virtually the entire day. But we also lost Deebo Samuel to a hamstring injury, Allen Lazard hurt his shoulder, Michael Pittman lost his QB to an injury and for all intents and purposes, so did Lazard and Romeo Doubs as Aaron Rodgers spent most of the day holding his thumb. These things happen. Nothing you can do but if you didn't cash, you can at least take solace in the fact that the plays were right. Guys just got hurt. Of course, again, our big miss was the quarterbacks as Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers got hurt, Tom Brady got old and neither Lamar Jackson nor Justin Herbert played well in smash-spots that didn't pan out. Our running backs were out strength, but just not enough for some.

And here are the top lineups you could have created on your own using ONLY the players from the Playbook and Dart Board:

All set? Are you ready to start diving into an early look at Week 8 NFL DFS? Let's do it!
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Jalen Hurts | PIT @ PHI Sun 1:00 | 8300 | 9200 |
JUST ADDED – Hurts is an obvious play and someone you should probably think about locking in for your cash game lineups as his floor is plenty high and the Steelers defense just isn't what it once was. They're allowing almost 120 rushing yards per game with four rushing touchdowns and they're giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game (275.4) with 13 passing touchdowns. It's ripe for the picking here for Hurts. The double-digit point spread does lend credence to the possibility that the Eagles take their foot off the gas in the second half and just run the ball hard, but Hurts has to get them to that point in the game anyway, so if you can afford the spend-up, it should return value. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the mid-to-high 50's with partly cloudy skies and very low wind. | ||||
QB | Kirk Cousins | CAR @ ATL Sun 1:00 | 6100 | 7800 |
The Vikings are coming off their bye week, so the hope is that Cousins and head coach Kevin O'Connell ironed out all the kinks and we are ready for the high-flying offense we've been expecting. The Cardinals haven't been giving up a ton of fantasy points to the quarterback position, but they are allowing almost 260 passing yards per game and have given up 12 touchdowns through the air. With opposing quarterbacks posting a 97.2 passer-rating against Arizona, we expect Cousins to light things up this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
QB | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA @ DET Sun 1:00 | 6200 | 7700 |
While the expression is way overused in fantasy circles, this is an absolute smash-spot for Tua and the Dolphins. The Lions defense has been absolutely atrocious and while they've only allowed nine passing touchdowns this season, they ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and are giving up almost 250 passing yards per game. With the system MIke McDaniel has implemented and the weapons at Tua's disposal, this could prove to be a big game for Miami. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
QB | Daniel Jones | WAS @ IND Sun 4:25 | 5700 | 7500 |
The Seahawks rank 19th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. They also just allowed Kyler Murray to rush for 100 yards against them and after watching Jones take off running for 107 yards against the Jaguars and having three rushing touchdowns to his credit, we are in for this match-up against the Seahawks. You can also add to it that Seattle is allowing almost 250 passing yards per game, they've given up 11 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 95.9 passer rating against them. Jones should be able to rack up the points with both his arm and his legs. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
QB | Jameis Winston | NYG @ SEA Sun 4:25 | 5300 | 7100 |
With the Raiders giving up 262.7 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns on the year, we would love to see Winston back under center this Sunday. The Saints have not committed to him or Andy Dalton so we're just going to have to watch the practice schedule all week. The Raiders just gave up 300 yards and two scores to Davis Mills last week and the week before that it was Patrick Mahomes throwing for 292 with four touchdowns. And now with Nate Hobbs, their best cover guy, on IR, the cracks in the secondary are getting easier to find. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps will be in the mid 50's with potential rain and winds blowing 13mph SSW. | ||||
QB | Davis Mills | TEN @ HOU Sun 4:05 | 5200 | 6500 |
Mills is coming off a big game against the Raiders and will likely be called upon to do the same against the Titans. While Lovie Smith has enjoyed running the football with Dameon Pierce, the Texans are likely to do more throwing again this week as Derrick Henry is going to do to them what Josh Jacobs did to them last week. That should help Tennessee grab an early lead and force Mills into catch-up mode. The good thing is that the Titans secondary is awful, they're giving up 277.5 passing yards per game and they've allowed 13 touchdowns through the air. Given the match-up, I feel like Mills could even be a worthy cash game QB. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Unsure if the roof will be closed for this game, but if it's open temps will be in the low 70's with partly cloudy skies. | ||||
QB | Sam Ehlinger | DEN @ JAC Sun 9:30 | 4000 | 6000 |
JUST ADDED – Jon Impemba is going to hate me for putting Ehlinger into the Watch List (you could here the hate during the DFS Podcast) but given the minimum price, how much does he actually have to do to even 3x his value? Ehlinger is a high-risk gamble, for sure, but in an era where DFS players are salivating over mobile quarterbacks, Ehlinger actually fits the bull. The guy was a huge asset for the University of Texas and rushed for over 1,500 yards during his years as their starter. Washington's pass-rush and the Colts offensive line's pass-blocking issues are going to force him out of a collapsing pocket and if he can't find anyone downfield, he's going to take off running. Maybe that helps open things up for Jonathan Taylor and then suddenly the Colts are in a normal game, something Matt Ryan was unable to give them. If Ehlinger throws for 175 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 40-50 yards and another touchdown for himself, he's easily paying off value. Even if he throws a pick or two, he's still offering string value. I wouldn't suggest this against a team with a stronger defensive unit, but against the Commanders? Yeah, I'll throw this dart. Game Type: GPP | ||||
RB | Derrick Henry | BAL @ TB Thu 8:15 | 8400 | 10000 |
This is going to be all about the price tag, but with so many marquee players off the main slate, we just might be able to find enough value to lock Henry into all of our lineups this week. Sure, he'll be 95% owned, but it will be worth it, I'm sure. We just watched Josh Jacobs rush for over 140 yards and three touchdowns against this Texans defense, so you almost have to figure Henry can surpass those numbers. We'll dive into more roster construction further down the road. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | Saquon Barkley | PIT @ PHI Sun 1:00 | 8100 | 9500 |
The Seahawks may rank 17th in DVOA against the run, but they are giving up the most fantasy points per game to running backs, the third-most rushing yards per game (149.7) and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season. They also rank 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so if there were ever a game you would want Barkley locked into all your lineups, this would certainly be it. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the mid-to-high 50's with partly cloudy skies and very low wind. | ||||
RB | Eno Benjamin | LV @ NO Sun 1:00 | 6000 | 7000 |
JUST ADDED – With recent news that James Conner is out for Week 8, we need to take another look at Benjamin in this match-up against the Vikings. Minnesota ranks 21st in DVOA against the run and they've allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season while allowing 112.5 rushing yards per game. They also rank 16th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and that's more Benjamin's thing than running between the tackles. At first glance, I like the match-up but I'm going to have to dig a little deeper before I love the match-up. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
RB | Tony Pollard | TEN @ HOU Sun 4:05 | 6100 | 6300 |
JUST ADDED – We've taken Zeke out of the Watch List and plug Pollard in for almost the same reasons. The Bears are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (149.7) and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Now, Pollard doesn't go between the tackles like Zeke does, but the offensive line should be able to clear numerous paths for Pollard throughout the game, allowing him to take full advantage of the Bears defensive shortcomings. He's likely to be a lock for cash games given the price tag and the match-up. Tony Pollard truthers finally have all of their dreams come true. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Unsure if the roof will be closed for this game, but if it's open temps will be in the low 70's with partly cloudy skies. | ||||
RB | Raheem Mostert | LV @ NO Sun 1:00 | 5900 | 6800 |
Let's overuse the cliche again, shall we? Smash-spot. That's what we've got here and that's why we, along with every other DFS player, are going to invest in Dolphins for our cash games. We can splash them into our GPP lineups as well, but the ownership is going to be high. Why? Smash-spot, of course. The Lions are giving up 168.2 rushing yards per game (second-most in the NFL) and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns on the year. With the way Mostert has taken over this backfield, you can help but love him for this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
RB | D'Onta Foreman | CIN @ CLE Mon 8:15 | 5300 | 6400 |
We'll be checking in on Chuba Hubbard's status throughout the week, but for now, we'll lock in on Foreman. Now, obviously, this has the potential to blow up in our faces because, after all, it's D'Onta Foreman and he's about as mediocre as you can get. Yes, the Panthers took the Bucs by surprise last week and this is Atlanta, a much worse run defense, but you always have to err on the side of caution. The Falcons don't allow a whole lot of rushing yards – just 100.3 per game – but they have given up seven rushing touchdowns and they do rank 26th in DVOA against the run. On paper this looks great, but we'll keep digging throughout the week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly clear | ||||
WR | Justin Jefferson | ARI @ MIN Sun 1:00 | 9100 | 9000 |
Um. Yes, please. Given me all the JJ I can get this week. We like Cousins against the Cardinals and we LOVE Jefferson against Marco Wilson who is arguably one of the worst cover-corners in the game right now. This one could certainly get out of hand quickly, but don't worry, Jefferson will get his before O'Connell even remotely thinks about turning to the run. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA @ DET Sun 1:00 | 8500 | 8700 |
I might have to find some sort of song parody for “smash-spot” as that could be the theme of this entire week. I can't remember the last time I was ever this into using the Dolphins, but this passing attack is going to be too much for the Lions to handle. Hill lines up all over the field, so if you were concerned about Jeffrey Okudah, don't be. If the Lions try to shadow hill with Okudah, then Waddle will destroy them. Their best bet is to try and double-team Hill and put Okudah on Waddle, but none of the Lions cornerbacks have the speed to stay with Tyreek. We're going to get him into our lineups all over the place. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | DeAndre Hopkins | BAL @ TB Thu 8:15 | 7400 | 7900 |
Hopkins is likely to see a lot of Patrick Peterson, but he's just not the cover-corner he used to be. We could see Cam Dantzler on Hopkins too and that would be just as tasty. We witnessed, first hand, Kyler Murray's obsession with feeding the ball to Hopkins and we should see a repeat performance of that this week. The Vikings rank 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 75.5 receiving yards to them. Expect a heavy target share and for Hopkins to bring up that average for the poor Vikings secondary. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Michael Pittman | WAS @ IND Sun 4:25 | 7200 | 7100 |
Listen, I'm not so sure we need to downgrade the Colts receivers with Sam Ehlinger taking over under center. I mean, can he be worse that Matt Ryan? It'll be tough for him to be, that's for sure. Pittman is incredibly talented and if Ehlinger puts the ball near him, he's got the wingspan and the ability to fight off defenders and come down with the ball. We'll monitor practices, but we know the Commanders struggle in coverage, so we can't just ignore the Colts receivers. In fact, the Commanders rank 19th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 84.5 receiving yards per game to them. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF @ LA Sun 4:25 | 6100 | 6700 |
While Deebo Samuel works his hamstring issues out, we'll happily turn to Aiyuk against he Rams this week. Los Angeles ranks 27th and 29th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and 2 respectively and with the way their defense now has to focus on Christian McCaffrey, we should see this 49ers passing attack blossom. Let's forget about what happened against the Chiefs. The Rams are a hot mess right now and even coming off a bye week, I do not think we need to fear them at all. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Chris Olave | LV @ NO Sun 1:00 | 6000 | 6900 |
The Raiders rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, they've allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (275.2) and they've given up 13 receiving touchdowns this season. Both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry remain questionable which means Olave should be locked in as the Saints No. 1 receiver this week. He's got two 100-yard efforts and two touchdowns in his last four games and should find his way into the end zone in what could turn into a bit of a shootout this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS @ IND Sun 4:25 | 6000 | 6800 |
We hit with McLaurin last week and we're ready to go back to the well once again. Taylor Heinicke already looks like an upgrade from Carson Wentz and he and McLaurin have a great rapport that dates back to last season. The Colts aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air, but they do rank 29th in DVOA against the opponent's No. 1 receiver. For a team that allows the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game, a ranking like that means they're giving up the touchdowns to the wideouts, not the big yardage games. We'll happily another 5-73-1 line from McLaurin at this price. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Brandin Cooks | LV @ NO Sun 1:00 | 5900 | 6100 |
Don't roll your eyes at me. I know Cooks has been well below average this season. I can simply go with the “he's due” narrative, but would rather just dive into the disgustingness that is the Titans secondary. First off, the narrative here is an obvious one, especially if you read what I wrote about Derrick Henry up above. Titans go up big, run Henry hard and the Texans are forced into a pass-heavy second half. The Titans are allowing the third-most receiving yards per game (295.0) and have allowed 13 touchdowns through the air, so you have to figure Mills locks onto Cooks, especially with Nico Colins banged up. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | DJ Moore | CHI @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 5300 | 6200 |
Amazing that we have multiple Panthers here in the Watch List after they are so overtly tanking for C.J. Stroud. Or are they? Last week's win over Tampa Bay was a huge stunner, as was Moore's 69 yards and a touchdown. Not that he doesn't have the talent, but that no one had that pegged coming into the game because we expected Carolina to roll over and die. This week it's a little different. The match-up against Atlanta is incredibly favorable, especially when we learn that cornerback A.J. Terrell is unlikely to play this week. Even before Terrell's injury, the Falcons ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the most receiving yards per game (318.3) and have allowed 13 touchdowns through the air. If they are suddenly playing with fire, we just might have to use Moore in our lineups. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG @ SEA Sun 4:25 | 4700 | 5900 |
Robinson has been someone I've been watching for a little while as I know he fits Brian Daboll's scheme to a tee, but the early-season injury derailed the head of steam he was really starting to pick up. But what we've now seen over these last two weeks has been exactly what we had hoped. Robinson does a great job running the crossing route or underneath slants and picking up yards after the catch, so he's going to continue seeing this increased target share and keep this vibe going that he has with Daniel Jones. He went from four targets to eight targets and now faces a Seattle defense that gives up plenty of receiving yards. True, they haven't given up a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers, but given the Giants game plan, he's going to be a fantastic PPR asset, especially at this price. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps will be in the mid 50's with potential rain and winds blowing 13mph SSW. | ||||
WR | Michael Strachan | WAS @ IND Sun 4:25 | 3000 | 4700 |
JUST ADDED – Keep this one in your back pocket as it likely won't be discussed by anyone until Sunday when it hits. I'll probably have him in the Dart Board this week as opposed to the Playbook, because it's a real high-risk GPP play, but the logic makes sense. How many times have you heard me mention that when a back-up QB comes into the game or gets a random start like Ehlinger is getting this week, that you have to look at the back-up receivers in DFS? When the pocket collapses and Ehlinger is on the run and looking downfield, is he looking for guys like Michael Pittman or is he looking for someone like Strachan who he's been practicing with and throwing to throughout the offseason and the first seven weeks? He'll go where he is most comfortable and he knows Strachan's tendencies as well as Strachan knows his. For a minimum price, it's going to be worth the dart. Game Type: GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
TE | Zach Ertz | WAS @ IND Sun 4:25 | 5100 | 6000 |
The Vikings rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end position and Ertz is still going to see a healthy target share even with DeAndre Hopkins on the field. Guys like Robbie Anderson are one-trick pony deep threats and ROndale Moore is still learning the ins and outs of being an NFL receiver. Ertz remains a strong and reliable target for Kyler Murray and should see ample work in a game that could go back and forth. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
TE | Pat Freiermuth | PIT @ PHI Sun 1:00 | 3900 | 5700 |
With Kenny Pickett under center, Freiermuth should continue to see a strong target share. I don't know if he's going to see the nine targets he got last week, but with the state of the tight end position, even just half a dozen targets will suffice. He's got good hands and isn't afraid to mix it up on the field for some contested catches. We would like to see a few more red zone targets as he only has one touchdown on the year, but considering the Eagles are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, we'll look to invest. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the mid-to-high 50's with partly cloudy skies and very low wind. | ||||
TE | Mike Gesicki | CIN @ CLE Mon 8:15 | 3800 | 5400 |
I am by no means a Gesicki-truther, but against the Lions? I think every Dolphin is in a smash-spot this week and we'd be foolish not to look at every avenue possible. The Lions rank 31st in DVOA against the position and they're allowing an average of 64.9 receiving yards per game to them. But what I love seeing the most is the five red zone targets Gesicki has seen over just the last two games. If he's going to be that much of a threat near the end zone, you'd be a fool not to use him. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly clear | ||||
TE | Irv Smith | TEN @ HOU Sun 4:05 | 3500 | 5000 |
Big Irv is back and the Cardinals are not going to be able to stop him. OK, I don't want to get too ahead of myself, but he's ben seeing consistent targets each week and sees a red zone look almost every week. He found the end zone just before the bye and the Cardinals, who rank 28th in DVOA against the position, are also allowing an average of 72 receiving yards per game. He makes for a really nice pay down with a decent floor. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Unsure if the roof will be closed for this game, but if it's open temps will be in the low 70's with partly cloudy skies. | ||||
TE | Hunter Henry | NE @ NYJ Sun 1:00 | 3400 | 5100 |
Henry didn't do much of anything Monday against the Bears, but with the Jets allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, you have to pay attention. We'll have to see how Bill Belichick handles the quarterback situation as an injured Mac Jones is not the preferred start, but really, either guy should be able to get the ball to Henry and likely near the goal line. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Partly cloudy skies with temps in the high 50's and very little wind. |
Jalen Hurts, QB | ||||
JUST ADDED – Hurts is an obvious play and someone you should probably think about locking in for your cash game lineups as his floor is plenty high and the Steelers defense just isn't what it once was. They're allowing almost 120 rushing yards per game with four rushing touchdowns and they're giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game (275.4) with 13 passing touchdowns. It's ripe for the picking here for Hurts. The double-digit point spread does lend credence to the possibility that the Eagles take their foot off the gas in the second half and just run the ball hard, but Hurts has to get them to that point in the game anyway, so if you can afford the spend-up, it should return value. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the mid-to-high 50's with partly cloudy skies and very low wind. | ||||
Kirk Cousins, QB | ||||
The Vikings are coming off their bye week, so the hope is that Cousins and head coach Kevin O'Connell ironed out all the kinks and we are ready for the high-flying offense we've been expecting. The Cardinals haven't been giving up a ton of fantasy points to the quarterback position, but they are allowing almost 260 passing yards per game and have given up 12 touchdowns through the air. With opposing quarterbacks posting a 97.2 passer-rating against Arizona, we expect Cousins to light things up this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Tua Tagovailoa, QB | ||||
While the expression is way overused in fantasy circles, this is an absolute smash-spot for Tua and the Dolphins. The Lions defense has been absolutely atrocious and while they've only allowed nine passing touchdowns this season, they ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and are giving up almost 250 passing yards per game. With the system MIke McDaniel has implemented and the weapons at Tua's disposal, this could prove to be a big game for Miami. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Daniel Jones, QB | ||||
The Seahawks rank 19th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. They also just allowed Kyler Murray to rush for 100 yards against them and after watching Jones take off running for 107 yards against the Jaguars and having three rushing touchdowns to his credit, we are in for this match-up against the Seahawks. You can also add to it that Seattle is allowing almost 250 passing yards per game, they've given up 11 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 95.9 passer rating against them. Jones should be able to rack up the points with both his arm and his legs. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Jameis Winston, QB | ||||
With the Raiders giving up 262.7 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns on the year, we would love to see Winston back under center this Sunday. The Saints have not committed to him or Andy Dalton so we're just going to have to watch the practice schedule all week. The Raiders just gave up 300 yards and two scores to Davis Mills last week and the week before that it was Patrick Mahomes throwing for 292 with four touchdowns. And now with Nate Hobbs, their best cover guy, on IR, the cracks in the secondary are getting easier to find. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps will be in the mid 50's with potential rain and winds blowing 13mph SSW. | ||||
Davis Mills, QB | ||||
Mills is coming off a big game against the Raiders and will likely be called upon to do the same against the Titans. While Lovie Smith has enjoyed running the football with Dameon Pierce, the Texans are likely to do more throwing again this week as Derrick Henry is going to do to them what Josh Jacobs did to them last week. That should help Tennessee grab an early lead and force Mills into catch-up mode. The good thing is that the Titans secondary is awful, they're giving up 277.5 passing yards per game and they've allowed 13 touchdowns through the air. Given the match-up, I feel like Mills could even be a worthy cash game QB. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Unsure if the roof will be closed for this game, but if it's open temps will be in the low 70's with partly cloudy skies. | ||||
Sam Ehlinger, QB | ||||
JUST ADDED – Jon Impemba is going to hate me for putting Ehlinger into the Watch List (you could here the hate during the DFS Podcast) but given the minimum price, how much does he actually have to do to even 3x his value? Ehlinger is a high-risk gamble, for sure, but in an era where DFS players are salivating over mobile quarterbacks, Ehlinger actually fits the bull. The guy was a huge asset for the University of Texas and rushed for over 1,500 yards during his years as their starter. Washington's pass-rush and the Colts offensive line's pass-blocking issues are going to force him out of a collapsing pocket and if he can't find anyone downfield, he's going to take off running. Maybe that helps open things up for Jonathan Taylor and then suddenly the Colts are in a normal game, something Matt Ryan was unable to give them. If Ehlinger throws for 175 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 40-50 yards and another touchdown for himself, he's easily paying off value. Even if he throws a pick or two, he's still offering string value. I wouldn't suggest this against a team with a stronger defensive unit, but against the Commanders? Yeah, I'll throw this dart. Game Type: GPP | ||||
Derrick Henry, RB | ||||
This is going to be all about the price tag, but with so many marquee players off the main slate, we just might be able to find enough value to lock Henry into all of our lineups this week. Sure, he'll be 95% owned, but it will be worth it, I'm sure. We just watched Josh Jacobs rush for over 140 yards and three touchdowns against this Texans defense, so you almost have to figure Henry can surpass those numbers. We'll dive into more roster construction further down the road. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Saquon Barkley, RB | ||||
The Seahawks may rank 17th in DVOA against the run, but they are giving up the most fantasy points per game to running backs, the third-most rushing yards per game (149.7) and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season. They also rank 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so if there were ever a game you would want Barkley locked into all your lineups, this would certainly be it. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the mid-to-high 50's with partly cloudy skies and very low wind. | ||||
Eno Benjamin, RB | ||||
JUST ADDED – With recent news that James Conner is out for Week 8, we need to take another look at Benjamin in this match-up against the Vikings. Minnesota ranks 21st in DVOA against the run and they've allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season while allowing 112.5 rushing yards per game. They also rank 16th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and that's more Benjamin's thing than running between the tackles. At first glance, I like the match-up but I'm going to have to dig a little deeper before I love the match-up. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Tony Pollard, RB | ||||
JUST ADDED – We've taken Zeke out of the Watch List and plug Pollard in for almost the same reasons. The Bears are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (149.7) and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Now, Pollard doesn't go between the tackles like Zeke does, but the offensive line should be able to clear numerous paths for Pollard throughout the game, allowing him to take full advantage of the Bears defensive shortcomings. He's likely to be a lock for cash games given the price tag and the match-up. Tony Pollard truthers finally have all of their dreams come true. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Unsure if the roof will be closed for this game, but if it's open temps will be in the low 70's with partly cloudy skies. | ||||
Raheem Mostert, RB | ||||
Let's overuse the cliche again, shall we? Smash-spot. That's what we've got here and that's why we, along with every other DFS player, are going to invest in Dolphins for our cash games. We can splash them into our GPP lineups as well, but the ownership is going to be high. Why? Smash-spot, of course. The Lions are giving up 168.2 rushing yards per game (second-most in the NFL) and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns on the year. With the way Mostert has taken over this backfield, you can help but love him for this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
D'Onta Foreman, RB | ||||
We'll be checking in on Chuba Hubbard's status throughout the week, but for now, we'll lock in on Foreman. Now, obviously, this has the potential to blow up in our faces because, after all, it's D'Onta Foreman and he's about as mediocre as you can get. Yes, the Panthers took the Bucs by surprise last week and this is Atlanta, a much worse run defense, but you always have to err on the side of caution. The Falcons don't allow a whole lot of rushing yards – just 100.3 per game – but they have given up seven rushing touchdowns and they do rank 26th in DVOA against the run. On paper this looks great, but we'll keep digging throughout the week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly clear | ||||
Justin Jefferson, WR | ||||
Um. Yes, please. Given me all the JJ I can get this week. We like Cousins against the Cardinals and we LOVE Jefferson against Marco Wilson who is arguably one of the worst cover-corners in the game right now. This one could certainly get out of hand quickly, but don't worry, Jefferson will get his before O'Connell even remotely thinks about turning to the run. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Tyreek Hill, WR | ||||
I might have to find some sort of song parody for “smash-spot” as that could be the theme of this entire week. I can't remember the last time I was ever this into using the Dolphins, but this passing attack is going to be too much for the Lions to handle. Hill lines up all over the field, so if you were concerned about Jeffrey Okudah, don't be. If the Lions try to shadow hill with Okudah, then Waddle will destroy them. Their best bet is to try and double-team Hill and put Okudah on Waddle, but none of the Lions cornerbacks have the speed to stay with Tyreek. We're going to get him into our lineups all over the place. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
DeAndre Hopkins, WR | ||||
Hopkins is likely to see a lot of Patrick Peterson, but he's just not the cover-corner he used to be. We could see Cam Dantzler on Hopkins too and that would be just as tasty. We witnessed, first hand, Kyler Murray's obsession with feeding the ball to Hopkins and we should see a repeat performance of that this week. The Vikings rank 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 75.5 receiving yards to them. Expect a heavy target share and for Hopkins to bring up that average for the poor Vikings secondary. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Michael Pittman, WR | ||||
Listen, I'm not so sure we need to downgrade the Colts receivers with Sam Ehlinger taking over under center. I mean, can he be worse that Matt Ryan? It'll be tough for him to be, that's for sure. Pittman is incredibly talented and if Ehlinger puts the ball near him, he's got the wingspan and the ability to fight off defenders and come down with the ball. We'll monitor practices, but we know the Commanders struggle in coverage, so we can't just ignore the Colts receivers. In fact, the Commanders rank 19th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 84.5 receiving yards per game to them. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Brandon Aiyuk, WR | ||||
While Deebo Samuel works his hamstring issues out, we'll happily turn to Aiyuk against he Rams this week. Los Angeles ranks 27th and 29th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and 2 respectively and with the way their defense now has to focus on Christian McCaffrey, we should see this 49ers passing attack blossom. Let's forget about what happened against the Chiefs. The Rams are a hot mess right now and even coming off a bye week, I do not think we need to fear them at all. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Chris Olave, WR | ||||
The Raiders rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, they've allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (275.2) and they've given up 13 receiving touchdowns this season. Both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry remain questionable which means Olave should be locked in as the Saints No. 1 receiver this week. He's got two 100-yard efforts and two touchdowns in his last four games and should find his way into the end zone in what could turn into a bit of a shootout this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Terry McLaurin, WR | ||||
We hit with McLaurin last week and we're ready to go back to the well once again. Taylor Heinicke already looks like an upgrade from Carson Wentz and he and McLaurin have a great rapport that dates back to last season. The Colts aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air, but they do rank 29th in DVOA against the opponent's No. 1 receiver. For a team that allows the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game, a ranking like that means they're giving up the touchdowns to the wideouts, not the big yardage games. We'll happily another 5-73-1 line from McLaurin at this price. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Brandin Cooks, WR | ||||
Don't roll your eyes at me. I know Cooks has been well below average this season. I can simply go with the “he's due” narrative, but would rather just dive into the disgustingness that is the Titans secondary. First off, the narrative here is an obvious one, especially if you read what I wrote about Derrick Henry up above. Titans go up big, run Henry hard and the Texans are forced into a pass-heavy second half. The Titans are allowing the third-most receiving yards per game (295.0) and have allowed 13 touchdowns through the air, so you have to figure Mills locks onto Cooks, especially with Nico Colins banged up. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
DJ Moore, WR | ||||
Amazing that we have multiple Panthers here in the Watch List after they are so overtly tanking for C.J. Stroud. Or are they? Last week's win over Tampa Bay was a huge stunner, as was Moore's 69 yards and a touchdown. Not that he doesn't have the talent, but that no one had that pegged coming into the game because we expected Carolina to roll over and die. This week it's a little different. The match-up against Atlanta is incredibly favorable, especially when we learn that cornerback A.J. Terrell is unlikely to play this week. Even before Terrell's injury, the Falcons ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the most receiving yards per game (318.3) and have allowed 13 touchdowns through the air. If they are suddenly playing with fire, we just might have to use Moore in our lineups. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Robinson has been someone I've been watching for a little while as I know he fits Brian Daboll's scheme to a tee, but the early-season injury derailed the head of steam he was really starting to pick up. But what we've now seen over these last two weeks has been exactly what we had hoped. Robinson does a great job running the crossing route or underneath slants and picking up yards after the catch, so he's going to continue seeing this increased target share and keep this vibe going that he has with Daniel Jones. He went from four targets to eight targets and now faces a Seattle defense that gives up plenty of receiving yards. True, they haven't given up a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers, but given the Giants game plan, he's going to be a fantastic PPR asset, especially at this price. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps will be in the mid 50's with potential rain and winds blowing 13mph SSW. | ||||
Michael Strachan, WR | ||||
JUST ADDED – Keep this one in your back pocket as it likely won't be discussed by anyone until Sunday when it hits. I'll probably have him in the Dart Board this week as opposed to the Playbook, because it's a real high-risk GPP play, but the logic makes sense. How many times have you heard me mention that when a back-up QB comes into the game or gets a random start like Ehlinger is getting this week, that you have to look at the back-up receivers in DFS? When the pocket collapses and Ehlinger is on the run and looking downfield, is he looking for guys like Michael Pittman or is he looking for someone like Strachan who he's been practicing with and throwing to throughout the offseason and the first seven weeks? He'll go where he is most comfortable and he knows Strachan's tendencies as well as Strachan knows his. For a minimum price, it's going to be worth the dart. Game Type: GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Zach Ertz, TE | ||||
The Vikings rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end position and Ertz is still going to see a healthy target share even with DeAndre Hopkins on the field. Guys like Robbie Anderson are one-trick pony deep threats and ROndale Moore is still learning the ins and outs of being an NFL receiver. Ertz remains a strong and reliable target for Kyler Murray and should see ample work in a game that could go back and forth. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Pat Freiermuth, TE | ||||
With Kenny Pickett under center, Freiermuth should continue to see a strong target share. I don't know if he's going to see the nine targets he got last week, but with the state of the tight end position, even just half a dozen targets will suffice. He's got good hands and isn't afraid to mix it up on the field for some contested catches. We would like to see a few more red zone targets as he only has one touchdown on the year, but considering the Eagles are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, we'll look to invest. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the mid-to-high 50's with partly cloudy skies and very low wind. | ||||
Mike Gesicki, TE | ||||
I am by no means a Gesicki-truther, but against the Lions? I think every Dolphin is in a smash-spot this week and we'd be foolish not to look at every avenue possible. The Lions rank 31st in DVOA against the position and they're allowing an average of 64.9 receiving yards per game to them. But what I love seeing the most is the five red zone targets Gesicki has seen over just the last two games. If he's going to be that much of a threat near the end zone, you'd be a fool not to use him. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly clear | ||||
Irv Smith, TE | ||||
Big Irv is back and the Cardinals are not going to be able to stop him. OK, I don't want to get too ahead of myself, but he's ben seeing consistent targets each week and sees a red zone look almost every week. He found the end zone just before the bye and the Cardinals, who rank 28th in DVOA against the position, are also allowing an average of 72 receiving yards per game. He makes for a really nice pay down with a decent floor. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Unsure if the roof will be closed for this game, but if it's open temps will be in the low 70's with partly cloudy skies. | ||||
Hunter Henry, TE | ||||
Henry didn't do much of anything Monday against the Bears, but with the Jets allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, you have to pay attention. We'll have to see how Bill Belichick handles the quarterback situation as an injured Mac Jones is not the preferred start, but really, either guy should be able to get the ball to Henry and likely near the goal line. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Partly cloudy skies with temps in the high 50's and very little wind. |