NFL DFS Week 13 Watch List: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks

It's really no surprise to see Herbert atop this list when he's facing the Raiders this week. When they faced each other back in Week 1, Herbert threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns and we should see him, at the least, repeat those numbers. The Chargers run defense has been a mess, so we expect the Raiders to lead with Josh Jacobs which should then force the Chargers into a much more pass-heavy scheme. We were rock-solid with Herbert as our cash game QB last week and should be fine once again.

Last week wasn't exactly a huge week for Burrow, though the Bengals did grab a very important win. This week, Burrow is expecting to see his favorite target Ja'Marr Chase back on the field and this game could/should turn into a shootout at some point, as evidenced by 52.5 over/under. The Chiefs are allowing 233.5 passing yards per game with a whopping 22 passing touchdowns allowed, but equally important is the fact that opposing quarterbacks are posting thee third-highest passer-rating (99.2) against them. I'm sure we'll have Patrick Mahomes in the final Playbook for this match-up, but for now, we'll stay focused on a less expensive Swaggy Joe.

Will there be rust? Maybe. But regardless of how you feel about Watson on a personal level, DFS is business and we are in the business of making money. We would be idiots if we didn't explore the possibilities of Watson facing his former team after all the bad blood between him and the organization. Obviously, it helps when Houston is a complete disaster on the field and rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass. I still feel like the Browns have to lean on Nick Chubb, but that should only open things up more in the passing game and Watson should get comfortable shredding the secondary in the second half when there's no pressure or early-game jitters. The price on FanDuel is egregious considering Watson hasn't been on the field since 2020, but the DK price isn't terrible. 

As much as I love Herbert, Burrow and Mahomes, Lawrence could end up as my lock cash-game quarterback. The Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, they're allowing almost 260 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns through the air this season and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 94.7 passer-rating against them which is the 10th-highest in the league. Vegas has this game as the second-highest expected total at 51.5, so I am going to need to be invested here – both cash and GPP.

Who's ready to chase some points? First of all, I'm not even 100% sure White is going to be under center this week. We'll have to monitor what is going on with Zach Wilson's punishment before finalizing. The thing is, we know White has a short shelf-life for quality games. Just go and look at the fourth game he played last year. Yeesh! But we have to take a longer look at him this week with the Vikings ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass and 21st against running back pass-plays. They're also giving up the most passing yards per game (276.1), the seventh-most passing touchdowns (16) and the fifth-highest pass-rating against (97.2) them this season. I don't love the play, but for a bargain GPP quarterback, there are certainly worse guys to look at.

You want the particulars? Fine. Houston ranks 30th in DVOA against the run. They are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back position, the most rushing yards per game (168.8) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (15). Now the heart of it – Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt would have to be out of their friggin' minds to not give Chubb at least 20 carries in this game. Watson being back should have absolutely nothing to do with what Chubb's workload should be and if he doesn't come away with over 100 yards and at least one trip into the end zone, then I may have to just retire from the analysis business. Get ready for a Fantasy Alarm Love Letter on this Wednesday's show. I've got Stefanski right here in my cross-hairs. 

He's the No. 1 running back in standard and half-point PPR scoring formats and now he gets to face one of the worst run defenses just one week after posting more than 300 all-purpose yards in an epic performance against the Seahawks. The Chargers are allowing an average of 151.4 rushing yards per game on the season and, over the last three games, that number has jumped to 167.0. The only thing working against us right now is the calf injury that seemed to crop up late last week but that he managed to play through. Supposedly, he aggravated the injury, we can only assume on his 86-yard touchdowns run, and the team doesn't expect him to practice much this week. We will monitor the situation and see if maybe Ameer Abdullah will be a better option.

We just watched the Jets back-ups put up 152 rushing yards on the Bears this past week and they're now allowing an average of 143.9 rushing yards per game with a league-high 19 rushing touchdowns allowed. What do you think is going to happen when Jones takes the field and either a broken Aaron Rodgers or an inexperienced Jordan Love is under center? This game might even be one of those where we could explore the possibility of using AJ Dillon as well. Maybe even the same lineup like we did on Thanksgiving with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

How about pairing up Aaron Jones with Montgomery and just run-game stack this one? The Packers rank dead-last in DVOA against the run and they're allowing an average of 154.8 rushing yards per game with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. And if you take an even closer look, you'll see that Green Bay has actually allowed over 200 rushing yards per game over their last three. With Khalil Herbert on the sidelines and Justin Fields potentially limited or out, Montgomery should have a full plate this weekend.

This, obviously, all comes down to the health of Travis Etienne. If we think he's fine and can play through this, then we'll happily use him against a Lions defense that has allowed 170.3 rushing yards per game over their last three. But if Etienne can't go, Hasty becomes an immediate chalk play. FanDuel already got a little funky with his price after a solid performance last week against the Ravens, but this price on Draft Kings has me thinking maybe it wouldn't be so bad if they help out Etienne for the week just to make sure he's good for the future.

The question we have to ask ourselves is whether or not we are willing to pay this kind of a price for a guy who is just coming back from a hip injury that has had him sidelined for the last four games which also included the Bengals bye week. If we can trust him then, obviously we want to use him in this match-up against the Chiefs. It's supposed to be a major shootout with Burrow vs Mahomes and Chase, Burrow's BFF, gets a matchup against a secondary that ranks 26th against the opposing WR1 and allows an average of 87 receiving yards per game to them. Go ahead and say it – smash-spot.

He's averaging almost 10 targets per game over his last five, two 100-yard efforts in his last three and finally got back into the end zone last week. If that doesn't make you want to start him, how about the 51.5 game total for this match-up against the Jaguars? How about the Jaguars being 30th in DVOA against the pass, allowing 248.1 passing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns allowed on the year? All signs point to these teams battling back and forth with each other all game and while the Lions will run hard early on, they're doing it to set up the pass. St. Brown will not disappoint.

While I stand by the fact that Kevin Stafanski would have to be the biggest idiot on the planet if he didn't give Chubb a minimum of 20 carries in this game, I do expect the passing game to open up with Watson on the field. Might take a little time for him and Cooper to get on the same page, especially when Watson is rolling out and extending plays with his legs, but the two should be able to connect this week and start building their on-field rapport. Houston ranks 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1, in case you needed another reason to use Cooper this week.

This one might not even be fair. Allen against this Raiders secondary with Amik Robertson as the slot-corner? Come on. He's had two games to knock the rust off and is ready to springboard back into superstardom. Vegas ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass, they're allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (258.0) and they've allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns on the season (19). Allen should have no trouble beating coverage and dominating in this match-up.

People need to stop crying that Metcalf didn't get into the end zone last week. You're killing me. The guy catches 11-of-15 targets for 90 yards and we're crying over here? Come on. He's got two touchdowns in his last four games and with 40 targets over his last four games, it's pretty clear who the go-to guy is. The Rams secondary is struggling, Jalen Ramsey looks like a shell of his old self and, frankly, Los Angeles seems to be packing it in anyway. Metcalf should excel against a team that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game over their last three. Even better is that his price is still well-under what it should be.

Let's see…where to begin? The Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They are giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the fifth most receiving touchdowns on the season. This game is expected to turn into a shootout with its 51.5 over/under. Or how about the fact that he is ready to make everyone forget about the Kirk who only had four catches for 46 yards and welcome back the guy who had nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns the game before? I'll have some stacks going on in this game and for every Detroit stack I build, Kirk is going to be the guy coming back.

Not only do the Giants rank 28th in DVOA against the pass, they are 24th against the opposing WR1. McLaurin will spend most of his time lined up opposite Fabian Moreau which grades out to the receiver's advantage, according to our friends over at Pro Football Focus. The fact that he hasn't found the end zone in five games should put us back to GPP-only for him, but eight targets per game is a healthy number and he should be able to do plenty with them this week.

The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game this season with the fifth-most receiving touchdowns as well. They are also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, so with Pickens being Kenny Pickett's go-to guy, we have to keep him in mind for a pay-down with true WR1 upside. Now I'm not saying Pickens will have top-5 numbers this week, but at this price, he doesn't need to. We know he's going to see the targets and the red zone work, so that's not a concern at all. Now you've got a great match-up and a heavy target share at a discounted price. Let the lineup building begin.

Here we go. Here's the unfortunate point-chasing I fear. I had Wilson in the Watch List all of last week and then left him off the Playbook because of the horrendous weather. His two-score performance was, much to my chagrin, fantastic and now he goes up against the Vikings secondary which we just watched get shredded by Mac Jones. Minnesota is dealing with injuries in their secondary and the coverage numbers have not been good. In fact, the Vikings rank 27th in DVOA against the pass, 29th against the opposing WR1 and are giving up the most passing yards per game (327.3) over their last three. If Mike White is on his game, Wilson could have another big day.

I really like JuJu Smith-Schuster as well, but my lean here to MVS is for a few reasons. First off, the Bengals rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and overall, their secondary has had some serious issues. Second, MVS is starting to see an increased target-share with Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney out and neither of them are coming back this week. And, of course, the deep-threat upside that you are looking for in GPP tournaments. We're just looking for respectable pay-downs, so don't over-commit. We just don't want to have to follow the herd and do somersaults over Zay Jones.

Interesting week for the 49ers as they are dealing with injuries to the backfield as well as a knee issue for Jimmy Grapes. We'll monitor the severity of the latter to determine whether or not we can trust in Kittle this week, but the former works very much in our favor. Miami ranks 29th in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. If the ground game isn't humming, we could see a nice lean on Kittle in this one. 

OK, fine. It didn't work last week. We tried. What I'm curious about is whether or not the problem for Everett is the return of Keenan Allen who works heavily out of the slot. Because he runs those underneath routes, there may not be much of a reason to target Everett. Something to take a long look at this week before finalizing the Playbook. On paper, this is a great match-up for Everett as the Raiders rank 22nd in DVOA against the tight end and give up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to them. We'll dive in deeper to see if it goes beyond these surface numbers.

Pretty tough to be eyeballing a guy who didn't see a single target last week, but since I don't know/think we see Bryce Perkins under center again this week, I won't rule out Higbee in a soft match-up. Seeing John Wolford as the starting quarterback would make me feel a whole lot better. Seattle continues to struggle against the tight end, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to them, and with Allen Robinson now joining Cooper Kupp on the injured list, the targets need to land somewhere. If Higbee can land 6-to-8 targets this week, he should pay off this salary.

Quietly, the Giants have become one of the worst defenses in guarding against the tight end position. They rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and they are tied with Seattle for allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game. Thomas is only averaging four targets per game over the last four weeks, but we do like the three red zone targets he's seen in that span. A touchdown would certainly pay off the salary and then literally anything else is gravy. 

His production has slipped a little over the last three games, but only one of those games (Week 9 vs Las Vegas) saw a favorable spot for the tight end. Engram gets Detroit this week in a game labeled as a potential high-scoring affair. With the Lions giving up the third-most fantasy points per game and ranking 23rd in DVOA against the position, we should be able to look at Engram and expect a return to the six-target status he once had. I'm definitely looking at a Jaguars stack this week and Engram's price certainly helps.