NFL DFS Week 10 Watch List: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks

Welcome back to the main slate, Mr. Mahomes. It feels like you haven't been with us for some time. Good thing we're getting you in this tasty match-up against the Jaguars who rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. Mahomes is lighting up secondaries in recent weeks, averaging 402.3 passing yards per game over his last three games, and has a 21:6 TD:INT for the season. The Jaguars are a team on the rise, so expect this to actually be a bit of a battle between these two. That should keep Mahomes throwing all day again, something we hope to get at this price. 

We've been talking about the strides Fields has made over the past several weeks and it certainly shined bright last week as he threw for three touchdowns and rushed for 178 yards and another score. The Bears may have dished off their defense at the trade deadline, they have boosted their offense with Chase Claypool and suddenly this group looks like it can put up points on anyone. Fortunately they only need to best the Lions who rank near the bottom in DVOA against both the run and the pass. Detroit is actually allowing an average of 268.5 passing yards with 13 touchdowns, so while Fields will continue to run, he may find the passing a little easier this week, given the match-up.

The Browns aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air – just 208.3 per game to be exact – but they have struggled against the pass due to a variety of injuries in the secondary. We'll watch to see what their status is closer to game-time, but with the way this offense has been producing, it doesn't feel like the opponent even matters. Tua is finding both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle regularly on these underneath routes and letting them add yards after the catch and when he extends the play with his legs, he lets them gain separation through their speed and is doing a great job of finding them downfield. With the ground game stronger than ever, Tua has a clear path to success.

It doesn't seem right even bringing up Wilson, given the way he and the rest of this offense have played this season, but this is one of those match-ups we have to pay attention to this week. We know the Titans are going to come out hard with Derrick Henry and with the way Denver has struggled against the run, you can probably expect them to play from behind. That will put Wilson into the driver's seat and throwing as often as he can. The Titans pass defense is horrible and will struggle to cover both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, so this just might be the breakout game for Wilson we've been hoping to get all year.

Time is of the essence as Deshaun Watson lurks in the shadows, awaiting the end of his suspension. If Brissett is going to stay on with the team as their primary back-up or is looking for another job for next year, it means he needs to shine in plus match-ups. Miami improved their pass-rush with the addition of Bradley Chubb, but they are still struggling in coverage and rank 31st in DVOA against the pass. Nick Chubb will undoubtedly set the tone early for this game, but with Miami's firepower, you know Brissett needs to be sharp through the air. He's got the receivers to do it, so maybe in a GP tournament, we lock into him.

This match-up looks absolutely amazing for the Giants, especially coming off their bye week. The Texans are allowing the most rushing yards per game (180.6), the most fantasy points per game to the position, they've given up 12 rushing touchdowns and Barkley is primed to abuse them this week. The Texans even rank 16th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Barkley is well-rested and Brian Daboll has had two weeks to scheme for this week. Expect Barkley to shine.

The Broncos rank 25th in DVOA against the run and have allowed an average of 122.6 rushing yards per game. They've only allowed five rushing touchdowns, but that just looks like a stat waiting to be corrected. Henry gets all the volume he needs to run roughshod over every opponent, so expect him to do so this week, especially at home after five-straight 100-yard efforts and six touchdowns over his last four games.

While the run defenses the Jags have faced over the past three weeks haven't been anything spectacular, you have to respect three-straight 100-yard efforts that have come with four touchdowns and an average of two catches per game. Considering the firepower of the Chiefs, we could actually see a few extra targets come Etienne's way which would probably be the better way to attack Kansas City as they rank 26th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and are allowing an average of 53.2 receiving yards per game to them.

He really put us in a bind last week coming up so short against the Packers, but we have to go back to the well again as he is the lead back in the Detroit offense and the Bears are horrible against the run. In fact, they're allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (147.2), they've given up 15 rushing touchdowns and they no longer have Roquan Smith or Robert Quinn. Just go back and look at what the tandem of Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert did to them last week. Or what Tony Pollard did to them the week before. Or what Rhamondre Stevenson did to them the week before that. Need I go on?

It would have been nice to have seen what Aaron Jones could have done against the Lions had he not gotten hurt, but maybe we can get something similar out of Montgomery this week. Of course, we also need to figure out whether there is a concern over Khalil Herbert taking too much of the workload away, so we may even choose to pivot to him after digging deeper. For now, though, we know we want a slice of the Bears backfield given the match-up as the Lions are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (148.8) and have given up 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. Perhaps both can eat? We'll see.

UPDATE: Matthew Stafford went into concussion protocol on Tuesday afternoon and now needs full clearance before stepping on the field Sunday. That doesn't bode well considering the way the league is finally responding to concussions. Josh Wolford steps in as the QB which will hurt some of the value here. The game plan is still to feed Kupp targets, but the timing could be an issue. ORIGINAL ANALYSIS: It's not that you need me to tell you to play Kupp, but the simple fact is that his ownership rates have been insanely low over the past few weeks. I get it. The price tag is always a pain in the ass and there is always some lingering concern over Matthew Stafford's elbow and the struggles of the offensive line, but how many 100-yard efforts do you need to see before you realize the dude is just a cheat code for lineups? No matter the score or the defense, Kupp continues to put on a show with five 100-yard games and six touchdowns this season. He also may want to exactly a little revenge this week as the first meeting against Arizona was his worst performance of the season. Avoid if you thing Kliff Kingsbury has his number, but if not, then at least make sure you find a spot for him in your GPP lineups.

UPDATE: The point spread for this game has dropped from 6 to 3.5 and the Bills haven't even announced that Allen will be out this week. Sounds like he will miss the game so be wary of locking in Diggs this week. ORIGINAL ANALYSIS: This could end up being a super-contrarian play as I am sure no one is trusting Josh Allen's elbow or Case Keenum's arm. Not to mention this price-tag. Welp, just like I said up above with Kupp, if no one is going to play him then I need to look deeper into the match-up and see if it's worth it to me. The Vikings do rank 30th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 wide receiver and they are allowing an average of 81 receiving yards per game to them, so that's positive. And if you are concerned over Keenum taking over, remember, that he and Stefon Diggs have already shared the field of battle back in their days in Minnesota together so, yes, this is, in fact, a DOUBLE-REVENGE narrative!

Even if the Browns secondary wasn't still a little banged-up coming off their bye, I'd still be pushing to use Hill and probably even Jaylen Waddle for all my lineups. The match-up is solid and this Dolphins offense looks like a very well-oiled machine. The Browns are going to come at Miami hard with Nick Chubb and given the way Miami has struggled against the run at time, you can expect them to come back with some firepower through the air, especially if they find themselves in a shootout like we've seen over the last two weeks. Hill sees mad targets and does a phenomenal job with them every week. Even if he doesn't get into the end zone, he still crushes the fantasy points with receptions and yards.

It's been a little aggravating that Olave hasn't found the end zone since returning from his concussion, but the guy is still average 10 targets per game over his last three and has one 100-yard effort in that span. The Steelers are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (288.5) and have given up a league-high 17 touchdowns through the air this season. There is always concern about Andy Dalton's abilities or Taysom Hill poaching key work, but Olave still manages to produce a high enough floor for us to use in cash games.

Welcome back, Captain Kirk! After a few less-than-stellar but still decent weeks, Kirk got back to business last week against the Raider with eight catches for 76 yards and a touchdown, only his second in his last six games. It came just in time as this match-up against the Chiefs is a crucial one for Jacksonville, not because of standings, but because of respectability. The Jags may be 3-6 on the year, but we are seeing strong improvements from both Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne which means Kirk's role as the team's No 1 receiver is more vital than ever. The Jags defense is good, but keeping pace with Patrick Mahomes is a very tall order. Kirk and Lawrence should be in lockstep with each other for this game and that should put the targets his way and the receptions in his hand. If that means a little end zone dancing too, we're all-in.

While Courtland Sutton has seen more snaps this season, Jeudy has actually seen more targets over the last three weeks and seems to be more of the go-to guy for Russell Wilson right now. In fact, Jeudy has averaged eight targets per game over the last four weeks, took down 13 catches for 159 yards over the last two and finally got back into the end zone last week. Sutton may be the deep threat, but for cash games, we'll take the targets and reliability.

Super-risky, I know, but I just can't ignore the talent level of Pittman. Does the change of coach and offensive coordinator change anything here? Sam Ehlinger still looks like he's got plenty to learn and lots of skills to hone, but this Raiders pass defense is pretty darn soft and doesn't generate any sort of pass-rush. In fact, the Raiders have just nine sacks on the year which is, by far and away, the lowest in the league. Maybe we just set him up as a GPP player only, but I'm going to watch practices all week and make a determination lter.

Pretty sure Jon Impemba was the only guy on Mooney last week and, unfortunately, I didn't listen to him. But I dug a little deeper after last week's 7-43-1 stat line from last week and continue to see steady progress for Mooney as Justin Fields gets better. He's averaging just over seven targets per game over the last four weeks and has had a decent floor with an average of close to five catches for 58.5 yards. Now he'll be facing a Detroit secondary that continues to get burned by mediocre receivers. Let's just hope the DFS sites keep undervaluing him.

How many people have failed to notice what Hardman has been doing recently? A lot. Sure, everyone took notice when he had his three-score game thanks to two rushing touchdowns, but people have missed the fact that he has a receiving touchdown in each of his last three games and saw nine targets from Patrick Mahomes last week. Yes, Mahomes has been spreading the ball around plenty and has been very successful doing it, but that doesn't mean you can't get a slice of it, especially at this price. They're onto him over on FanDuel, but DK, thankfully, still seems to be missing the boat.

Here's another guy the DFS sites and many players are missing on as well. Robinson came back from injury and posted a 3-37-1 stat line and then followed that up with catching 7-of-8 targets for 50 yards. Then, in a rain-soaked game in Seattle, he came up short and everyone wants to drop him from seasonal play and ignore him in DFS? What? Come on, people. You're better than that. The Giants are coming off a bye week, Daniel Jones has been working closely with his receiving weapons and now they face the Texans who rank 31st and 25th respectively against the opposition's No. 1 and 2 wideouts. For a bargain price like this, I'll use Robinson in cash to squeeze in better guys elsewhere and not worry one bit.

Finally! Oh how we've missed having an elite tight end on the slate. Yeesh! It's been hot trash for what feels like weeks now. But here we go with Kelce in what should be a favorable match-up. While the Jaguars aren't allowing a lot of fantasy points to the tight end position, they do rank dead-last in DVOA against the position. The best tight end the Jags faced this season was Dallas Goedert and he caught five passes for 72 yards. You know Kelce is going to surpass that by a country mile.

He put up a big zero for us last week and that hurt. Not gonna lie, I had him in my main GPP lineup and it crushed my soul. But I'm willing to go back to the well here against Arizona as the Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends and the last time these teams faced each other back in Week 4, Higbee hauled in four catches for 61 yards. No one is going to be on him this week after last week and that's an ownership percentage I can get behind for our GPP lineups.

Will the prodigal son return? Man, I hope so. I was all over Njoku in the preseason because of his expected targets share among these sketchy Cleveland pass-catchers and we enjoyed five-straight weeks of deliciousness as he averaged nine targets per game over those five games. If he returns this week, he's in a great spot against the Dolphins who allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Njoku is out, we may look to Harrison Bryant but only in GPP tournaments.

The Packers aren't giving up very much in the way of fantasy points to the tight end position, but they do rank 21st in DVOA against them and we know Schultz is a favorite of Dak Prescott's. Injuries have made it difficult for this Dallas offense to find a rhythm, but with the by last week, they've had two weeks to just work together and scheme against a Packers team that is circling the drain. If Schultz is going to see a similar target share to what he saw in the beginning of the season, we can look to him for a strong effort this week. 

It's dirty and it feels a little like chasing, but Kmet has been a featured target for the steadily improving Justin Fields and he saw a season-high six targets this past week. But more importantly, Kmet has seen two red zone targets in each of his last two games and has six in his last four. Detroit has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Kmet sits at an incredibly low cost. We might have to try that second bit of the apple. 

JUST ADDED – Are we being gifted value here at the crappiest position this week? With both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow landing on Injured Reserve, Moreau officially steps in as the No. 1 tight end and probably No. 3 on the target distribution list behind Davante Adams and Mack Hollins. The Colts are allowing the 10th most fantasy football points to tight ends and rank 27th in DVOA against the position. Also allowing almost 54 receiving yards per game here.