NFL DFS Week 1 Watch List: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks

There are far too many people down on Mahomes this season now that Tyreek Hill is in Miami, so we're hoping the masses will avoid him and keep his ownership low for GPP purposes. But the bottom line is Mahomes is an absolute stud and while Hill might not be there, he's got the No. 1 tight end in the league and an arsenal of receivers who have the speed to shake man-coverage which is what the Cardinals like to play. It may be difficult to pinpoint which receiver he will favor the most, but that doesn't matter to us. He could hit seven different receivers for seven touchdowns and while some people will complain about where the ball is headed, all we care about here is where it's coming from. With the highest expected game total on the slate, Mahomes should be locked in to your lineups.

Herbert showed you last season exactly why he can and should be considered the top quarterback in the game and he should continue his ascension this season as Year 2 of Joe Lombardi's offense locks in for the Chargers. These AFC West games have all the earmarks of a good old-fashioned shootout and Herbert has the weaponry to do some serious damage. Las Vegas hasn't given up a world of passing yards over these last two seasons, but Herbert, in four games, has 10 touchdowns to just one interception. Expect more of the same this year. 

This actually has less to do with the Jets being a punching bag on defense and more to do with Jackson betting on himself and playing for a contract. The rushing yards he is able to accrue are huge in the fantasy space and he's learned to be a much more efficient passer, posting a completion rate of no lower than 64.4% over the past three years. With J.K. Dobbins banged up, we may even see Jackson run more as Mike Davis doesn't exactly scream trustworthy, does he? He should produce like a top-3 quarterback this week and  be worth every penny you have to pay for him here.

Hurts was the perfect example of a quarterback who is better in fantasy than he is in reality. That's not to say he can't lead the Eagles to the top of their division because he certainly can. But this is all about fantasy and that means we want to and will see him run early and often. You've got to love the improved weapons he has now and while the Lions continue to improve, they still allowed almost 250 yards per game through the air and the third-most passing touchdowns last season. For a mobile QB, this looks to be a really nice price.

**JUST ADDED** I've been extremely bullish on Carr throughout the summer and am a big fan of Josh McDaniels taking over as the head coach and Davante Adams as the new No. 1 receiving weapon. The system should give him some added autonomy at the line and the route trees for his pass-catchers should provide him with some strong outlets throughout the game. Carr's accuracy has been on-point over the past three seasons (never lower than 68-percent) and he should have no issues connecting on the high-percentage pass-plays we expect to see. The AFC West games have all the earmarks of turning into some high-scoring shootouts, so expect some strong numbers here. If there is one caveat, it's the pass-blocking of the offensive line. They boosted themselves by getting rid of Alex Leatherwood, but can they give him the time and protection he needs to set up in the pocket? Given what we've seen in camp thus far, we're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

This should come as no surprise if you've been following/listening to me all summer. I am extremely bullish on this Vikings offense now that Kevin O'Connell is putting his stamp on the passing attack and I expect to see them throw much more often this season. In a run-first scheme last year, Cousins had six 300-yard efforts and threw for fewer than two touchdowns just four times. He missed the second game against the Packers last season due to COVID, but in the first meeting, he tossed three touchdowns with 341 yards. As he and the Vikings look to assert their dominance in the NFC North, he will provide you with immense value in the DFS space.

The consensus 1.01 in seasonal fantasy football has one of the tastiest Week 1 match-ups of all the running backs which makes him a lock for cash games. The Texans tried to improve upon their run defense which allowed the second-most yards per game last year, but not enough to even remotely think about fading Taylor. He'll see strong carries to open the game and once the Colts have this one well in-hand, he will likely be used to help chew up the clock. And how many times did we see big runs at the end of games last year? Lots. In fact, Taylor had 14 rushes for over 20 yards last year and five of those went for more than 40 yards. He's pricey, but oh so worth it.

Expect to see plenty of Chargers in this Watch List every week. While many keep screaming “touchdown regression” for Ekeler, I am simply going to continue riding him every opportunity I get. Remember, this offensive scheme is what helped turn Alvin Kamara into the stud running back we watched in New Orleans and Ekeler showed more than just flashes of it last season. He's slightly more tasty on DraftKings due to the full PPR format, but as he and the Chargers look to push past the Raiders in style, he's got plenty of value on any DFS site.

Speaking of Kamara, guess who gets to take on a Falcons team that didn't do enough to improve its defense during the offseason. Atlanta allowed over 130 rushing yards per game last year, they coughed up 18 rushing touchdowns and while they may have ranked 10th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, Atlanta still watched as quarterbacks routinely tossed the ball to guys coming out of the backfield for roughly six or seven catches and close to 40 yards. Jameis Winston is not known for his dump-offs, but this offensive scheme has plenty of designed screens for Kamara. Use with confidence.

Mixon is another guy I am super-high on this season and I expect him to finish as a top-five back this season. The Bengals have vastly improved their offensive line and this is a team that loves to use the pass to set up the run. Look for them to jump out to an early lead and then use Mixon to help pound the Steelers into submission. Another key factor as well is how head coach Zac Taylor discussed getting Mixon more involved in third-down situations which means we will hopefully watch him catch more passes as well. He might be better for GPP contests than cash, but I'll still use him for both.

You either believe in Saquon or you don't and if you are of the latter, that is just fine. More room for me…and Saquon to dance. This new spread offense is going to do wonders for the Giants overall, but more importantly, we should see better running lanes open up for Barkley as well as more opportunities to catch passes out of the backfield. Yes, he's been hurt the last two years, but when healthy, he can be one of the most explosive backs in the game. Maybe he doesn't have the burst he had pre-injury, but the Giants formations and personnel packages should help open things up for him to get out in space more. The Titans defense does not have the speed to keep up with him, so if he can get into the next level of the defense, he could be ripping off huge chunks of yardage.

**JUST ADDED** It's not often we find a strong running back bargain-play for cash games but one who we will also fade for GPP, but this seems to be what we have in Pierce this week. The seasonal fantasy community is buzzing like a bee hive regarding Pierce and rightfully so as he will be the lead back and likely bell-cow for the Texans. The hype is incredibly strong and for that reason, you can expect his ownership percentages to be high. Now, do I really want to invest in a rookie running back for the Texans? Against the Colts defense? Probably not which is why he's a GPP fade. But if we see updated ownership numbers that push him up, then we can get away with him in cash and invest bigger bucks in other players and positions. This is exactly the type of player for which the Watch List was built. We'll see what happens come Saturday Playbook time.

While Adams won't be force-fed targets like he saw in Green Bay, he is going to be a major focal point in this offensive game plan. Like the Raiders, the Chargers don't give up a ton of yardage through the air, but they did allow 27 passing touchdowns last year, seventh-most in the league. Cornerback J.C. Jackson is banged up and while Asante Samuel is talented, keeping pace with Adams is a whole other situation. Look for Adams to debut in style and get your Fresno State gear ready as he and Carr look to connect all day long. 

He's my No. 1 receiver this year and there is zero chance I don't plug him into lineups all over the place. While we expect Jaire Alexander to shadow Jefferson, he is not the shutdown corner he once was, regardless of how much the Packers are paying him right now. Kevin O'Connell plans to move Jefferson around all over the field, just like he did with Cooper Kupp, and that means Alexander will be out of position at times, opening things up much more for the third-year wideout. Remember every game last year where you were scratching your head as to how Kupp kept getting open? Expect that for Jefferson this season.

Chase and Burrow have a special connection and it was on full display last year after the QB demanded his team draft his former LSU teammate. We're going to see plenty more of that this season and as such, Chase will likely dominate on those big plays we've seen him crush opponents with in the past and his ability to add yards after the catch will be on full display. He bested the Steelers with ease last season and should have little trouble with their secondary, even with Minkah Fitzpatrick cheating over to his side. 

Big Mike had a breakout season in the first year of Joe Lombardi's offense and he is fully committed to building off last season's momentum. He came out of the gate white-hot, scoring five touchdowns in four games and this should be the year he maintains that level of play throughout the year. Defenses still have to key in on Keenan Allen, so Williams should have plenty of room downfield. Whether it's a sideline route or a vertical leap in the end zone, Williams should be one of the most dominant X-receivers in the game.

The biggest knock on Brown has been his health, but he walks into the season ready for action. Jalen Hurts, obviously, needs to improve his accuracy, but let's face facts – this is the first time he's got a legitimate WR1 on his side. The connection with DeVonta Smith was nice, but Brown brings so much more to the table. He's a big-play guy who can get physical with the best of corners, so putting him up against the Lions who were notorious for giving up the long ball is going to be fun to watch and lucrative in DFS.

With no DeAndre Hopkins or Christian Kirk, Hollywood will be on full display for the Cardinals this week as he reunites with his old college quarterback in a game that has the highest expected points total in Week 1. He should be able to stretch the field and beat the Chiefs corners as the two teams land themselves in a second-half shootout, so there is definitely multi-touchdown potential here. I'm only using him for GPP tournaments right now because of the lack of other receiving options, but if Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz handle the underneath work, the sky's the limit for Brown.

Lovie Smith is bringing his Tampa-2 defense to the Texans, and while that's been a proven scheme over the years, it's going to be difficult to pull off in Houston. To do so, you need a strong pass-rush or shutdown corners, neither of which do the Texans have. As Jonathan Taylor racks up the rushing yards and dominates the line of scrimmage, you can bet the play-action from Matt Ryan will fool the secondary and open things up downfield. Pittman is more than capable of taking that next step which means he is going to be extremely dangerous now that he has a quarterback with accuracy.

This is more of a gut-play than anything else as I believe JuJu can be the guy Patrick Mahomes needs to replace Tyreek Hill. I'm not saying he is anything near Hill, but he is capable of lining up all over the field, he can run crisp routes and has the hands needed to snare the passes coming from Mahomes at all angles. The Cardinals are not going to be able to keep up in coverage when the Chiefs go into three and four-receiver sets and while Mahomes can and will spread th ball around, you can also expect him to lock into a guy once he's proven himself on the field. 

Kirk is the new No. 1 receiver in Doug Pederson's offense and should easily become the go-to guy for Trevor Lawrence. Kirk can line up all over the field, he can go deep and he can also go across the middle without concern. Pederson comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree and will get his running backs heavily involved, but one the ground game is established, he will utilize the passing assets to their fullest. He's a coach that has turned average receivers into true No. 1's, so now he's got an above-average guy and he's going to vault him to the top of the league's receiver rankings.

You've heard me joking about it in articles and on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy, but in all seriousness, you don't want to sleep on Sammy this season. Especially not here in Week 1. With Allen Lazard questionable for Week 1, Watkins has the potential to be Aaron Rodgers' top target this week and that could prove to be a phenomenal play against Minnesota's still-developing secondary. But don't take my word for it – it's not exactly an Impemba Special, but this tweet says it all.

**JUST ADDED** We caught a glimpse of the possibilities with Toney last season when he had 16 catches for 267 yards over a two-game span before getting hurt and falling off the radar the rest of the way. The spread offense that Brian Daboll has implemented should start to feature Toney a lot more as the defense will be stretched thin and the speedy Toney can run those underneath routes that get him the ball out in space with running room in front of him. The Giants will use Kenny Golladay to stretch the field which should help open things up across the middle even more and given the sluggishness of some of the Titans' linebackers, this could turn into a track meet at times. The cost is extremely favorable so if looking for a budget wideout with some solid upside, Toney fits the bill.  

While the Jets defense remains a work in progress, you have to look at their DVOA ranking of 30th against the tight end last year and understand that they probably haven't done enough to completely fix the problem. The secondary has seen improvements, but the linebackers who will be tasked with helping out against Andrews haven't improved enough to contain him. The red zone work will be abundant, so be sure to get yourself a slice of the MANdrews for this week's contests.

I mean…do I really need to provide analysis here? I love the fact that he's not the most expensive tight end on DraftKings and will likely use him all over my lineups there. We know the rapport with Mahomes and we know defenses routinely have trouble covering him. Don't be foolish and fade him because I'm going to beat you every time you do.

While the Saints have toutinely been good against the tight end, we're not just talking about a tight end here. Pitts will line up all over the field and he will create some insane mismatches in coverage. Yes, there is some concern regarding Marcus Mariota's ability to consistently get him the ball, but Arthur Smith has gotten the best out of him in the past and should be able to get him to lock onto Pitts no matter where he is lined up. Even with Tyrann Matthieu at safety,  the Falcons should find numerous creative ways to get Pitts the ball this week.

The Browns lack pass-catchers in this offense and Njoku is very likely to be the No. 2 target in this offense. We've seen Jacoby Brissett lock onto his tight ends in the past and with the heavier coverage falling onto Amari Cooper, Njoku should see ample opportunities both between the 20s and inside the red zone. He's a big, wide-body who can gain position on both slow-footed linebackers and undersized corners, so look for the Browns to get him involved throughout the game.

Hooper is another tight end who finds himself as someone who could be heavily targeted early on. Robert Woods is coming back from an ACL injury, Treylon Burks has been banged up all summer and the Titans really don't have anyone else. Last season the Giants gave up more than seven catches and 50 yards per game to the position and while they've boosted their linebacking corps, that was more about the pass-rush than it was for coverage. If you're paying down in a GPP, don't overlook him.

**JUST ADDED** While I've never been sold on Kmet as a breakout tight end candidate, the situation in Chicago does seem to point targets his way, at least for this week. Justin Fields' top target will undoubtedly be Darnell Mooney, but behind him lies a group of pass-catchers with some serious question marks. Byron Pringle has been banged up and hasn't had a lot of time on the field with his QB and Velus Jones, the 25-year-old rookie is still listed as questionable. Beyond that are names you would sooner forget than even remotely think about for your lineups. That pushes Kmet into the picture with a much clearer path to targets. As Andrew Cooper mentions in this week's TE Coach, Jimmy Graham saw some impressive red zone targets down the stretch last year and with him gone, Kmet steps into the limelight a little further.