ThriveFantasy NFL Top Picks & Plays: Divisional Round
Super Wild Card Weekend has come and gone, and now we are onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. If you used the player props mentioned here last week, your lineups were off to a great start, and we are going to hope to replicate that in the divisional round! We are going to look to some fantasy superstars for some massive days, notably from Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills respectively.
I have some NFL player props for you to use on Thrive’s individual Saturday and Sunday slates. Here are my favorite NFL player props that you must target this week on Thrive, and these players will also likely generate some interest for your daily fantasy football lineups for the divisional round! It’s time to #PropUp over at ThriveFantasy!
Interested in playing on Thrive? Head to http://www.thrivefantasy.com/?promo=ALARM with the promo code ALARM to get an instant match of 100% of your deposit up to $100!
ThriveFantasy Top Picks Divisional Round Playoffs
Saturday
Travis Kelce OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards
Jacksonville should put all of their eggs in the “stop Kelce at all costs” basket, but can they do that? They rank 32nd in DVOA against the tight end position, and back in Week 10 when these teams played, Kelce went for 81 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Over Jacksonville’s last couple of games, take a look at the production from opposing tight ends:
- Wild Card Round vs LAC: 6-109-1 for Gerald Everett
- Week 18 vs. TEN: 3-42-1 for Chig Okonkwo
- Week 17 @ HOU: 4-80-0 for Jordan Akins, O.J. Howard, and Brevin Jordan
- Week 16 @ NYJ: 5-64-0 for Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah
Over the last two seasons, Kelce has appeared in six playoff games, and he has at least 95 yards in each contest. He’s Mahomes’ top guy when it matters most, and he’s going to get his in this matchup.
Jalen Hurts OVER 264.5 Passing + Receiving Yards
Despite missing two weeks at the end of the season, Hurts returned and totaled 242 passing and rushing yards. He ran nine times in this game, and this offense is all on Hurts’ back. He has seven games with 50+ rushing yards this season and just four games with fewer than 200 passing yards. In his two games against the Giants this season, he’s put up 294 and 242 total yards, and we just saw Cousins put up 273 passing yards against them.
Graham Gano UNDER 8.5 Points
Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka know that it will take touchdowns to win this game, not field goals. This isn’t the time for the Giants to get conservative, and I don’t expect them to do so. Sure, Gano will get an opportunity or two, but he’ll need field goals to get to the over here, and again, Daboll knows that they need touchdowns. If the Giants get to the red zone, and the first down line is one or two yards away, Daboll is going for it, and Gano will stay on the sidelines. I expect the Philadelphia offense to be firing on all cylinders, and Daniel Jones will have to keep up with touchdowns, not field goals. In the two games against the Eagles this year, albeit one without Daniel Jones, Gano put up a total of six points.
Sunday
Ja'Marr Chase OVER 84.5 Receiving Yards
Chase went for 84 yards last week against the Ravens and he is a star in the postseason. He has at least 84 yards in all but one career postseason game, and now gets to face a Buffalo squad that ranked 29th in DVOA against the WR1. This game has the makings of a shootout, and both teams are going to want to air it out. I like Chase to go for 100+, but we only need 85 yards here for 100 points.
Ezekiel Elliot UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Zeke hasn’t topped this mark since Week 16 against the Eagles, and now he has to face a San Francisco team that ranked second in DVOA against the run! Elliott has had some tough matchups in recent weeks, and hasn’t done much with opportunities given, whereas Tony Pollard has looked better. San Francisco has not been friendly to opponents on the ground, and I don’t expect Zeke to be the one that breaks the mold.
For a more in-depth explanation of Thrive Fantasy, check out there “How to Play” video below:
Reminder: Head to http://www.thrivefantasy.com/?promo=ALARM with the promo code ALARM to get an instant match of 100% of your deposit up to $100!
Related Articles and Tools:
- 2022 NFL Playoffs Bold Predictions from the Fantasy Alarm Staff
- 2022 NFL Injury Report Divisional Playoffs: Isaiah McKenzie, Mecole Hardman, and Jamison Crowder Injury Updates
- Like & Subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube Channel!
- Fantasy Football Weekly Player Rankings
- Fantasy Football Weekly Projections
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.