Super Bowl LV: Showdown Slate

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Chiefs -3 (opened Chiefs -3.5)

Over/Under: 56 (opened 57.5)

Money Line: Chiefs -162; Buccaneers +140

Betting Trends:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games
  • 9-7 ATS in 2020
  • 5-3 ATS at home
  • The Over hit in 9-of-16 games this season (four at home)

Kansas City Chiefs

  • 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games
  • 7-9 ATS in 2020
  • 4-4 ATS on the road
  • The Over hit in 8-of-16 games this season (four on the road)

Weather: High 50s, clear with 13% chance of precipitation and winds blowing N 6mph

Last Meeting:

Chiefs beat the Bucs 27-24 in Week 12 (11/29/2020)

  • Patrick Mahomes threw for 462 yards & 3 TD
  • Tom Brady threw for 345 yards with 3 TD & 2 INT
  • Tyreek Hill led all Chiefs receivers/tight ends with 13 catches for 269 yards & 3 TD
  • Rob Gronkowski led all Bucs receivers/tight ends with 6 catches for 106 yards
  • Chiefs running backs totaled just 59 rushing yards
  • Buccaneers running backs totaled just 76 rushing yards

Notable Injuries:

Chiefs:

Buccaneers:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

KC: Run D – 31st Pass D – 16th 

TB: Run D – 5th Pass D – 1st 

Chiefs allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game in the playoffs

Bucs allowed 85.7 rushing yards per game in the playoffs

KC vs RB pass plays – 31st (48.3 ypg)

TB vs RB pass plays – 6th (41.2 ypg)

Chiefs allowed 245.5 passing yards per game in the playoffs

Bucs allowed 280.7 passing yards per game in the playoffs

**Remember – just because you don’t see a player listed below, doesn’t mean he is a complete fade.

Captain/MVP

Tyreek Hill , WR KC – Bracket coverage or not, there is no player on the field with a higher ceiling than the Cheetah. He had 15 touchdowns during the season, three multi-score games and can rattle off 100-plus yards without breaking a sweat., as evidenced by the back-to-back efforts here in the playoffs. His numbers against the Bucs back in Week 12 were downright ridiculous and that’s what you’re looking for in your top spot.

Leonard Fournette , RB TB – It’s a contrarian play for the top spot, but also something you have to do if you want to fit some of the big boys in your lineups. The Bucs are likely to come out running hard as Brady loves to kick things off with slow, methodical, clock-eating drives and this game should be no exception. Fournette is the lead back, he’s Brady’s guy and he should be featured throughout the game. Let the others use a QB here and be forced to bottom-of-the-barrel dart-throws in their lineups. You can build a stronger, more-balanced lineup this way. 

Travis Kelce , TE KC – It’s simply a matter of opinion as to which top Chiefs pass-catcher you want to use. We know Kelce has a strong ceiling and we know he sees a boatload of targets. Patrick Mahomes leans on him heavily and this game should be no different. If you’re not convinced Tyreek will go off in this game, then Kelce is a logical move for the top spot.

Mid-Tier

Patrick Mahomes , QB KC – Not sure we can expect another 462 yards out of Mahomes on Sunday, but he will be throwing heavy and he will have multiple touchdowns. He’s here and not in the Captain seat due to the price tag, and as I explained above, it prevents you from balancing out your lineup with legitimate plays rather than deeper dart throws. If you can squeeze both QBs into your lineup, that’s tremendous, but if only one, then Mahomes is the guy.

Tom Brady , QB TB – If you don’t subscribe to the notion that the Bucs will lean on Fournette early and throughout this game, particularly down at the goal-line, then get Brady in there. He’s more than capable of a 300-yard, multi-touchdown effort and, as you’ve seen with the public, many are buying into all the narratives surrounding him.

Mike Evans , WR TB – Remember during the pre-season when everyone was worried about Evans’ production this year? That Brady would struggle to throw deep and Chris Godwin would become the new Julian Edelman ? Well, Evans caught a career-best 13 touchdowns, posted his seventh-straight 1,000-yard season and has two touchdown grabs in three playoff games this year. He and Brady are very much in-sync.

Worthy Plays

Rob Gronkowski , TE TB – With Cameron Brate dealing with a back injury, the targets should fall more to Gronk in this one. When these teams met in Week 12, he had six catches for 106 yards and we are all very much aware of how Brady and Gronk connect in high-profile games. It wouldn’t be the weirdest thing in the world if he found the end zone more than one.

Sammy Watkins , WR KC – Usually I’m the last person to come to for a Watkins endorsement, but with the expectation of bracket coverage on Hill and extra attention coming Kelce’s way, Watkins could be in line for a heavier target share on Sunday. He’s followed his usual M.O. of lighting it up in Week 1 and then disappearing for most of the season with injuries, but he always seems to make it back in time for the playoffs, where he seems to shine. Last year, in three playoff games, including the Super Bowl, he averaged 96 receiving yards and had one touchdown. Not many will be on him, fearing the calf injury, which should only help boost your lineup.

Chris Godwin , WR TB – The fact that he hasn’t scored a touchdown in either of his last two game may steer some people away, so the ownership percentages may just be middle-of-the-road which is helpful. Prior to the Divisional game against the Saints, Godwin had five touchdowns in four games and averaged eight targets per game during that span. The 56-point game-total tells you there will be plenty of scoring so Godwin certainly warrants consideration.

Dart-Throws

Antonio Brown , WR TB – There’s an obvious risk with the knee injury, but Brown put in a full practice Friday and should be good to go for the Bucs on Sunday. He’s Tom Brady ’s guy – there’s no other way to put it. Brady lobbied for Brown to come to New England last year and he lobbied for him to be brought to Tampa. Once things started to click shortly after the bye week, Brady and Brown connected for five touchdowns in four games and he saw almost eight targets per game during that time. Similarly to Gronk’s situation, it’s prime-time and you expect to see these guys featured.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC – The Cheifs are dealing with some offensive line issues as Eric Fisher is out and guys are playing out of position. If things get tough, we may see more check-downs to CEH as Mahomes gets rid of the ball quicker. We haven’t seen a lot of running back pass-plays from the Chiefs this season, but that might also be something they bust out to give the Bucs a different look.

Mecole Hardman, WR KC – If you think Watkins will aggravate his calf injury or be limited in any fashion, then Hardman makes for an interesting play. His target share would certainly increase. But even if that doesn’t happen, you know Andy Reid likes his gimmicks, which means jet sweeps are likely.

Tyler Johnson, WR TB – While everyone else is on Scotty Miller because of his touchdown catch last week in the conference championship, we’ll look to Johnson and the contrarian play now that we like more. Should Brown be limited, Johnson will likely be the prime beneficiary and should get a few targets even if Brown plays all game.

Super-Dart Throw

Anthony Sherman , FB KC – OK, fine. It didn’t work last week, but after talking to Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, my suspicions/expectations of some trickery from Reid in the Super Bowl are validated. Kerkhoff opined a tackle-eligible kind of situation where one of the offensive linemen catch a pass, but with the shuffling they’ve had to do in the wake of the Fisher injury, a gimmick play to the fullback seems even more likely to me. It is the super-cheap, deep-deep dart in a boom or bust lineup filled with top names, but there’s nothing wrong with having a little fun with that for one last NFL showdown.