NFL Week 18 Sunday Night Football Showdown Playbook: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions DFS Picks
DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Good afternoon, FA nation! Are you ready for some Sunday Night Football? What better way to end the NFL regular season than an NFL DFS Showdown on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tonight, we have an NFC North showdown as the 8-8 Detroit Lions square off against the 8-8 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Lions playoff fate may be determined by kickoff (if the Seahawks beat the Rams) but they can still play spoiler to a Packers team that is in full control of their post-season destiny tonight. Green Bay is a 4.5 home favorite with a 49.0 game total as Aaron Rodgers has a healthy receiving corps ready to roll. For tonight’s matchup there is a full rundown of players and suggestions below and you can always take a look at our Weekly Match-Up Report and use NFL DFS Tools like our DFS Lineup Generator (a.k.a. the DFS lineup optimizer).
First, from the words of our fearless leader at Fantasy Alarm, Howard Bender:
Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits, and everyone shares in the prizes, but, often, you need to hit on that random dart throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, now let’s get to tonight’s action.
Spread: Packers -1
Opened: Packers -4.5.
O/U:
Open- 47.0
Live- 49.0
Lions- 22.25
Packers- 26.
Weather: Lambeau Field
Temp: 25 degrees
Humidity: 83%
Precipitation: 0%
Notable DFS Injuries:
Lions
Justin Jackson- RB- Hip (P)
Jason Cabinda- FB- Knee (Q)
Packers
Aaron Rodgers- QB – Right Thumb (P)
Aaron Jones- RB- Knee (Q)
2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings:
Lions
Vs Pass: 28th
Vs Run: 26th
Packers
Vs. Pass:8th
Vs. Run: 32nd
**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.
NOTE:
The significance of this game can change immensely based on the outcomes of earlier games today. The Packers are all in as they become the #7 seed with a win. The Lions need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams (they are six-point favorites) or they will be eliminated from the playoffs and will not have anything to play for. If the Seahawks do happen to lose (the most helpful scenario for our SNF SD), the Lions will have something to play for and must beat the Packers in this SNF game to get into the playoffs.
TOP CAPTAIN/MVP
Aaron Rodgers- Green Bay Packers QB
The Packers were a mess to start the season and now are knocking on the Playoff door. I bet this is a big personal game for ARod (3,490 yards with 25 TDs and 11 picks for the four-time MVP) as he plays for the final NFC Wild Card spot. He has not thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 12, but we cannot count out the future Hall of Famer who has all his weapons healthy and ready to roll. Swan song for Rodgers as he faces one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Jamaal Williams- Detroit Lions RB
Last weekend Williams scored his league-leading 15th rushing touchdown plus put together a season-best 22 carry, 144 yard and one touchdown day. He needs just six rushing yards to reach 1000 yards for the first time in his career and three touchdowns to break the Lions record (plus $250K in incentives). Williams is a fairly cheap captain tonight and the Packers have allowed an average of one TD on the ground per game this season. When these two teams met in Week 9 Williams posted a 24/81 rushing line and we can expect the same or even more tonight in what is a revenge game for Williams.
Amon Ra St. Brown- Detroit Lions WR
If the Seahawks lose and the Lions have something to play for then St. Brown should see double-digit targets. The key here is that he should also avoid full Jaire Alexander coverage since he is a slot receiver but the Packers have still allowed only the 10th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. St. Brown has at least nine targets in 11 of his 15 games played this season and 100 receptions on the season for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns.
Aaron Jones- Green Bay Packers RB
I am only playing Jones at captain tonight in the “Packers pound the Lions into the ground” scenario. Jones may have the highest ceiling on the slate and the Lions defense is so bad that he may just run and catch the ball all game. Jones is a better option than AJ Dillon on FanDuel since Dillon gets a $3.2K discount on DraftKings but we all have seen Jones crush on prime time so what makes tonight any different?
Jared Goff- Detroit Lions QB
Goff comes in as a sneaky captain tonight mainly because he can spread the ball around and multiple receivers could get touchdowns (which helps the QB in Showdown slates). He has now gone eight straight games without an interception, and over the past five, he’s thrown for over 330 yards in three contests.
Allen Lazard- Green Bay Packers WR
Lazard has a smash matchup tonight against a bad Lions defense. He took advantage of this secondary once before in Week 9 and caught 10 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown (19 DKFP). The Lions have allowed an NFL-most 1,519 yards to players in the slot this season and Lazard has caught four of his five scores from that position. Lazard also comes in $1.6K cheaper on DraftKings with a higher target upside than the popular Christian Watson which gives us a great opportunity for a leverage captain play.
UTILITY
DJ Chark Jr.- Detroit Lions WR
Chark Jr. is the contrarian dart play in large field GPPs. He certainly is not safe but he is a vertical threat on the outside and all it takes is one big play or a game like two weeks ago at Carolina where he caught four passes for 108 yards (18 DKFP). He will come in low owned due to facing a Packers defense that has totally shut down perimeter wide receivers.
D’Andre Swift- Detroit Lions RB
Swift started the season on fire but after missing week 4-7 with injury and then saw his usage level frustratingly drop. It all turned around last week with a monster game (11-78-2 for 27 DKFP) and by being fully healthy Swift could be the best player on the field tonight if the Lions still have something to play for.
AJ Dillon- Green Bay Packers RB
Aaron Jones comes in a little on the expensive side plus he is still dealing with knee and ankle injuries. Dillon may be the safer and cheaper choice, especially since he is seeing volume (11+ carries in four straight games and six touchdowns over his last five). The Lions have also allowed 15 touchdowns on the ground putting Dillon in play. Another option is playing both Jones and Dillon in the same GPP lineup in “Lions eliminated” scenarios. This is still one of the running back tandems in the NFL and both are capable of multiple touchdown games.
VALUE
Mason Crosby – Green Bay Packers K
The veteran kicker is 22-25 on the year kicking field goals and 1-3 past the 50. If the Packers cruise past their implied total, we could see Crosby having one of his busiest games of the season tonight.
Michael Badgley- Detroit Lions K
Badgley is also 22-25 and 2-3 from past the 50-yard line. There is a lot of value tonight but not much in terms of safety so it may be smart to go the kicker route and hope the contest blows by the Vegas game total of 49 points.
Randall Cobb- Green Bay Packers WR
As mentioned earlier, the Lions have allowed an NFL-most 1,519 yards to players in the slot this season and the Rams run a zone-heavy scheme. That makes Cobb an appealing value play, as he leads all Packers receivers with 2.14 yards per route run versus zone (per Action Network). Now if this becomes a must-win game we could see a narrative of Rodgers going to his veteran much more than normal and the primary slot-receiver could smash at $3.6K.
Shane Zylstra and Brock Wright - Detroit Lions TE
Zylstra and Wright can be used in GPP lineups as the “last man in” as Goff tends to look their way in the end zone. Last week Wright caught three passes on four targets and scored twice while the week before that Zylstra caught five passes on six targets and scored three touchdowns! That’s five touchdowns in the last two weeks from the tight end position. If being forced to choose one Zylstra leads Lion tight ends in routes run (39.4%) and target share (6.7%) over the last five weeks.
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Player News
The Chiefs will play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.
The Week 13 matchup will bring Patrick Mahomes and the AFC champion Chiefs to Dallas for the day’s late afternoon game. It could be a shootout if key players on both sides are healthy. Dak Prescott heads into the season with George Pickens as a legit WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, and Mahomes — who has talked this offseason about more explosive plays for the KC offense — will have Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Hollywood Brown at his disposal. Mahomes has faced Dallas once in his NFL career, a Week 11 win in 2021 in which he threw for 260 scoreless yards. The hope for both the league and fantasy managers is that the Cowboys are still in postseason contention by the end of November.
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.