DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Good afternoon, FA nation! Are you ready for some Sunday Night Football? What better way to end the NFL regular season than an NFL DFS Showdown on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tonight, we have an NFC North showdown as the 8-8 Detroit Lions square off against the 8-8 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Lions playoff fate may be determined by kickoff (if the Seahawks beat the Rams) but they can still play spoiler to a Packers team that is in full control of their post-season destiny tonight. Green Bay is a 4.5 home favorite with a 49.0 game total as Aaron Rodgers has a healthy receiving corps ready to roll. For tonight’s matchup there is a full rundown of players and suggestions below and you can always take a look at our Weekly Match-Up Report and use NFL DFS Tools like our DFS Lineup Generator (a.k.a. the DFS lineup optimizer). 

 

First, from the words of our fearless leader at Fantasy Alarm, Howard Bender:

Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits, and everyone shares in the prizes, but, often, you need to hit on that random dart throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, now let’s get to tonight’s action.

Spread: Packers -1

Opened: Packers -4.5.

O/U: 

Open- 47.0

Live- 49.0

Lions- 22.25

Packers- 26.

 

Weather: Lambeau Field

Temp: 25 degrees

Humidity: 83%

Precipitation: 0%

 

Notable DFS Injuries:

Lions

Justin Jackson- RB- Hip (P)

Jason Cabinda- FB- Knee (Q)

Packers

Aaron Rodgers- QB – Right Thumb (P)

Aaron Jones- RB- Knee (Q)

 

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings:

Lions

Vs Pass: 28th

Vs Run: 26th

Packers

Vs. Pass:8th

Vs. Run: 32nd
 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

NOTE:  

The significance of this game can change immensely based on the outcomes of earlier games today. The Packers are all in as they become the #7 seed with a win. The Lions need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams (they are six-point favorites) or they will be eliminated from the playoffs and will not have anything to play for. If the Seahawks do happen to lose (the most helpful scenario for our SNF SD), the Lions will have something to play for and must beat the Packers in this SNF game to get into the playoffs.  
 

TOP CAPTAIN/MVP

Aaron Rodgers- Green Bay Packers QB

The Packers were a mess to start the season and now are knocking on the Playoff door. I bet this is a big personal game for ARod (3,490 yards with 25 TDs and 11 picks for the four-time MVP) as he plays for the final NFC Wild Card spot. He has not thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 12, but we cannot count out the future Hall of Famer who has all his weapons healthy and ready to roll. Swan song for Rodgers as he faces one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Jamaal Williams- Detroit Lions RB

Last weekend Williams scored his league-leading 15th rushing touchdown plus put together a season-best 22 carry, 144 yard and one touchdown day. He needs just six rushing yards to reach 1000 yards for the first time in his career and three touchdowns to break the Lions record (plus $250K in incentives). Williams is a fairly cheap captain tonight and the Packers have allowed an average of one TD on the ground per game this season. When these two teams met in Week 9 Williams posted a 24/81 rushing line and we can expect the same or even more tonight in what is a revenge game for Williams.

Amon Ra St. Brown- Detroit Lions WR

If the Seahawks lose and the Lions have something to play for then St. Brown should see double-digit targets. The key here is that he should also avoid full Jaire Alexander coverage since he is a slot receiver but the Packers have still allowed only the 10th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.  St. Brown has at least nine targets in 11 of his 15 games played this season and 100 receptions on the season for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns.

Aaron Jones- Green Bay Packers RB

I am only playing Jones at captain tonight in the “Packers pound the Lions into the ground” scenario. Jones may have the highest ceiling on the slate and the Lions defense is so bad that he may just run and catch the ball all game. Jones is a better option than AJ Dillon on FanDuel since Dillon gets a $3.2K discount on DraftKings but we all have seen Jones crush on prime time so what makes tonight any different? 

Jared Goff- Detroit Lions QB

Goff comes in as a sneaky captain tonight mainly because he can spread the ball around and multiple receivers could get touchdowns (which helps the QB in Showdown slates). He has now gone eight straight games without an interception, and over the past five, he’s thrown for over 330 yards in three contests.

Allen Lazard- Green Bay Packers WR 

Lazard has a smash matchup tonight against a bad Lions defense. He took advantage of this secondary once before in Week 9 and caught 10 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown (19 DKFP).  The Lions have allowed an NFL-most 1,519 yards to players in the slot this season and Lazard has caught four of his five scores from that position. Lazard also comes in $1.6K cheaper on DraftKings with a higher target upside than the popular Christian Watson which gives us a great opportunity for a leverage captain play. 

 

UTILITY

DJ Chark Jr.- Detroit Lions WR

Chark Jr. is the contrarian dart play in large field GPPs. He certainly is not safe but he is a vertical threat on the outside and all it takes is one big play or a game like two weeks ago at Carolina where he caught four passes for 108 yards (18 DKFP). He will come in low owned due to facing a Packers defense that has totally shut down perimeter wide receivers. 

D’Andre Swift- Detroit Lions RB

Swift started the season on fire but after missing week 4-7 with injury and then saw his usage level frustratingly drop. It all turned around last week with a monster game (11-78-2 for 27 DKFP) and by being fully healthy Swift could be the best player on the field tonight if the Lions still have something to play for. 

AJ Dillon- Green Bay Packers RB

Aaron Jones comes in a little on the expensive side plus he is still dealing with knee and ankle injuries. Dillon may be the safer and cheaper choice, especially since he is seeing volume (11+ carries in four straight games and six touchdowns over his last five). The Lions have also allowed 15 touchdowns on the ground putting Dillon in play. Another option is playing both Jones and Dillon in the same GPP lineup in “Lions eliminated” scenarios. This is still one of the running back tandems in the NFL and both are capable of multiple touchdown games. 
 

VALUE

Mason Crosby – Green Bay Packers K

The veteran kicker is 22-25 on the year kicking field goals and 1-3 past the 50. If the Packers cruise past their implied total, we could see Crosby having one of his busiest games of the season tonight.

Michael Badgley- Detroit Lions K

Badgley is also 22-25 and 2-3 from past the 50-yard line. There is a lot of value tonight but not much in terms of safety so it may be smart to go the kicker route and hope the contest blows by the Vegas game total of 49 points.

Randall Cobb- Green Bay Packers WR

As mentioned earlier, the Lions have allowed an NFL-most 1,519 yards to players in the slot this season and the Rams run a zone-heavy scheme. That makes Cobb an appealing value play, as he leads all Packers receivers with 2.14 yards per route run versus zone (per Action Network). Now if this becomes a must-win game we could see a narrative of Rodgers going to his veteran much more than normal and the primary slot-receiver could smash at $3.6K.

Shane Zylstra and Brock Wright - Detroit Lions TE

Zylstra and Wright can be used in GPP lineups as the “last man in” as Goff tends to look their way in the end zone. Last week Wright caught three passes on four targets and scored twice while the week before that Zylstra caught five passes on six targets and scored three touchdowns! That’s five touchdowns in the last two weeks from the tight end position. If being forced to choose one Zylstra leads Lion tight ends in routes run (39.4%) and target share (6.7%) over the last five weeks. 

 

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