Good afternoon, Family and Happy Christmas Eve! Are you ready for some Saturday Night Football? What better way to end your holiday week than an NFL DFS Showdown on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tonight, we have the 6-8 Las Vegas Raiders visiting the 6-8 Pittsburgh Steelers in real cold weather (low teens) on a night that the Steelers will celebrate the 50th Anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. The play, which happened on Dec. 23, 1972, changed the direction of Steelers football for years to come when the Steelers beat the then Oakland Raiders on Franco Harris' miracle catch and 60-yard touchdown. Tonight both legendary organizations are at it again and we have a strange 38-total game in which the Steelers are favored by two points. The Raiders have gone over their 18.25 total in all but three games this year and still have Wild Card hopes alive. The Raiders Big 3 consists of Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams while the Steelers are led by running back Najee Harris. For tonight’s matchup there is a full rundown of players and suggestions below and you can always take a look at our Weekly Match-Up Report and use NFL DFS Tools like our DFS Lineup Generator (a.k.a. the DFS lineup optimizer). 

First, from the words of our fearless leader at Fantasy Alarm, Howard Bender:

“Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits, and everyone shares in the prizes, but, often, you need to hit on that random dart throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.”

OK, now let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Spread: Steelers -2

Opened: Steelers -1

O/U: 

Open- 40.0

Live- 38.5

Raiders- 18.25

Steelers- 20.25

Weather: Acisure Stadium

Temp: 12 degrees

Humidity: 56%

Precipitation: 14%

Las Vegas Raiders Injuries

No key offensive players

Pittsburgh Steelers Injuries

Derek Watt- FB- Ankle (P)

Diontae Johnson- WR- Toe (Q)

Pat Friermuth- TE – Foot (P)

 

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Raiders

Vs Pass: 31st

Vs Run: 22nd

Steelers

Vs. Pass: 18th

Vs. Run: 8th

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

TOP CAPTAIN/MVP

Najee Harris - Pittsburgh Steelers RB

Vegas expects this game to be low scoring with the Steelers gaining the edge. If you believe that it plays out that way, then Harris would be your Captain. He is not the bell cow that he was last season and does share time with Jaylen Warren but Najee can still get it done.  He has practiced fully (hip) and is averaging 17.2 carries per game in Weeks 10-15 compared to just 13.5 carries per game in Weeks 1-8. One more thing, Rhamondre Stevenson totally smashed this Raider run defense last week so no reason that Najee can’t do the same. 

Davante Adams - Las Vegas Raiders WR

Adams is the alpha of this Raiders receiving room and is a straight up stud. He will cost you, but he matches up nicely against the Steelers pass defense. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings fantasy points to WRs (38.3) and 16 touchdowns plus Adams has played well on the road with a 22.2 DraftKings fantasy points average and seven touchdowns.

Josh Jacobs - Las Vegas Raiders RB

Jacobs is a real bell cow in Vegas. Since Week 8 he has seen at least 20 opportunities and 25+ in eight of them. The Steelers run defense is not a pushover but Jacobs has rushed for at least 93 yards in five straight games and has four rushing touchdowns over that span. It’s a tough matchup but Jacobs has been too good- especially if he gets 25+ touches. Raiders have some hope in the Wild Card and will be looking to lean on their stud.

Derek Carr - Las Vegas Raiders QB 

This is my leverage play since I believe the Raiders quarterback will go overlooked tonight with the weapons that he has. Carr has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven games and in 10 of 14 contests overall. In last week's contest against the Patriots, Carr passed for 231 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception and we could expect similar results against Pittsburgh's defense, which has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points to QBs this season (18.6). One little note: He is 0-6 in weather 37 degrees or less at kickoff with five touchdowns, six interceptions and an average completion percentage of 57 percent.

George Pickens - Pittsburgh Steelers WR

One more leverage play at the top spot – Pickens. Since the Chase Claypool trade 32% of Pickens’ targets have come 20+ yards downfield. Even though has seen just 10 targets over the last three games Pickens still has a solid 6/133 line and with Pickett at the helm he has six double digit DraftKings fantasy point games (nine played). We know he will get some deep looks and the second-round pick out of Georgia who has had a productive rookie season (42/643/2) could very well nuke the slate. 

NFL DFS FLEX PLAYS

Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh Steelers QB

Pickett is probably a little too expensive to slot in as a Captain but he does have some rushing upside which he will need since he has thrown over 300-yards only once this year and has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game. 

Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers WR

Johnson is a volume receiver and has the best chance on the team to post a 7-90 -type effort but here’s the kicker- all of his good games came with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback and DJ currently has 123 targets on the season without a receiving TD, which would break the NFL record. If he finally does something with the targets tonight, he could be in the optimal. 

Mack Hollins - Las Vegas Raiders WR

Hollins has come out of nowhere this year to become one of Derek Carr’s favorite targets. The speedster has had a solid season with both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow dealing with injuries, producing 51 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns. Hollins has only had one big week (Week 3 against the Titans when he went for 158 yards and a touchdown on eight catches) but he’s seen five or more targets in nine games and in five of his last six contests.  With Davante Adams drawing the Steelers attention we could see Hollins produce tonight. 

Darren Waller - Las Vegas Raiders TE

Waller made his return with a 3/48/1 line on three targets while playing 49% of the snaps. His snap count should be back to the 70% range, but DraftKings did us no favors with his salary. I do not mind the play, but he will eat into the ceiling of his teammates, and it is wort to note that his one big game this season came against the Arizona defense that has been historically bad against the tight end position.  

NFL DFS VALUE PLAYS

Pat Freiermuth- Pittsburgh Steelers TE

He did not see a target last week against Carolina, but we could see a bounce back game tonight as the Raiders defense is allowing the 10th-most DraftKings points (13), ninth-most receptions, and six touchdowns to the tight end position. If you think the Steelers will have success in the air Freiermuth has the type of body to haul a pass or two in the end zone.

Steven Sims Jr - Pittsburgh Steelers WR

Last week Sims Jr. caught one pass for 10 yards and ran the ball two times for 19 yards (3.9 DraftKings points). In the game before that against the Ravens he caught the ball four times for 30 yards and a season-best 7.1 DraftKings points. At $1.4K and with skill position tough to come by tonight, he is worth a punt as the Steelers WR3 who is earning a 35% target share in each of the last six games. 

Daniel Carlson - Las Vegas Raiders K

It is well known that the Raiders tend to not finish drives so Carlson and his big leg have the most FGs per game in the NFL. He is 29-32 on the season and 9-11 past the 50-yard line. Carlson is a top choice for all Cash lineups tonight.

 

NFL DFS DART THROW PLAYS

Zack Gentry / Miles Boykin / Gunner Olszewski - Pittsburgh Steelers 

All will see the field and can be rotated in and out in Steelers passing stacks

Foster Moreau / Keelan Cole - Las Vegas Raiders

Will see the field and can be rotated in and out in Raiders passing stacks

Jaylen Warren – Pittsburgh Steelers RB

Should get 5-10 touches as leverage off Najee Harris. Maybe even vulture a touchdown?

Ameer Abdullah - Las Vegas Raiders RB

Passing down back as leverage off Jacobs. Can be last part of a Raiders pass-heavy stack. 

 

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