And just like that we’re back to playing DFS Showdown slates here in NFL Week 15. We get a classic NFC West battle as the San Francisco 49ers head north to take on the Seattle Seahawks. If the 49ers win, they actually clinch the division, so expect them to go all out and try to secure that NFC playoff spot. But Seattle won’t go down without a fight and if you’ve checked the NFL Injury Report recently, you’ll see that they are back to full-strength and ready to play spoiler for their division rivals. While we expect a hard-nosed, back and forth game that may not hit the over-43.5 game total Vegas is giving us, we do expect to see some scoring from both sides. Making those tough lineup choices are always fun, so let’s just get right to it 

Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

 

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: 49ers -3.5

O/U: 43.5

Weather: clear skies w/ temperatures in the hgh-30s; winds blowing NE at 4 mph

Notable NFL Injuries:

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

San Francisco 49ers

  • vs Pass: 5th 
  • vs Run: 2nd 

Seattle Seahawks

  • vs Pass: 18th 
  • vs Run: 26th  

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Christian McCaffrey, RB San Francisco 49ers

Just because it’s the obvious play doesn’t make it wrong. McCaffrey will be super-chalky tonight against Seattle’s porous run defense that allows the second-most rushing yards per game (160.5) and has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns on the season. On top of that, Seattle ranks 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays so we are expecting a very active night for the Niners running back.

George Kittle, TE San Francisco 49ers

If you’re looking to get a little different with your lineups and are looking for the next greatest weakness in the Seahawks defense, it’s against the tight end. They rank 27th in DVOA against the position and they’re allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. With no Deebo Samuel, we expect Kittle’s target share to climb a bit in this one.

Geno Smith, QB Seattle Seahawks

It’s a tough defense to go up against, but not one that hasn’t had its moments of struggle at times. The problem is, which way do you attack it – through the air or on the ground? Chances are, Seattle is going to have to take it to the air, so instead of guessing which way they go between Metcalf and Lockett, why not just get a slice of each with Smtih? You’ll save a few bucks which maybe affords you an extra mid-tier guy in your lineups.

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays

Brock Purdy, QB San Francisco 49ers

You’re either afraid of the oblique issue or you’re not. If Purdy starts this game, which he is fully expected to do, then you have to go all-in with him and not worry that his injury could push him to the sidelines. He had a stellar debut in relief of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo and this defensive match-up isn’t all that tough. We expect the lean on McCaffrey, but Purdy is going to need to throw as well, so don’t be afraid to get him into your lineup.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR San Francisco 49ers 

With Deebo on the shelf, Aiyuk steps up as the top receiver against a Seahawks defense that ranks 18th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and, while they aren’t allowing a ton of yards through the air this season, they’ve given up 19 passing touchdowns on the season. With his increase in targets, Aiyuk should post strong totals by night’s end.

Kenneth Walker, RB Seattle Seahawks

The ankle injury is behind him and he’s got fresh legs so expect Pete Carroll to do some early leaning on Walker to try and soften up that defensive line. He’ll also be useful in neutralizing the pass-rush by running tight up the gut. If nose-tackle Al Woods plays, he’s not going to be at 100-percent, so look for Seattle to focus on running right at him. The 49ers give up the fewest rushing yards per game, so Walker might actually be a contrarian pick for many which is good, especially if he can get into the end zone.

DK Metcalf, WR Seattle Seahawks

He’s on a nice, little tear right now with touchdowns in each of his last two games and four in his last six. Metcalf is averaging close to 10 targets per game over that span and should continue to see a heavy workload, especially if the 49ers jump out to an early lead. With the injuries the 49ers have in the secondary, Metcalf should see a lot of Deommodore Lenoir in coverage which is definitely a favorable match-up.

Tyler Lockett, WR Seattle Seahawks

Lockett may not be seeing the target share Metcalf gets, but he’s got touchdowns in six-straight games, so why wouldn’t you want to lock him into your lineups? The 49ers actually rank 32nd in DVOA against the opposition’s No. 2 receiver and while Lockett may be more of a 1A than a 2, the match-up numbers still work.

San Francisco 49ers D/ST

Even though the Seahawks are sitting at full-strength, we expect the 49ers defense to be a fairly chalky play tonight. They rank fourth in the league in takeaways (21) and seventh overall in sacks (36). Expect a significant amount of blitzing and look for them to be aggressive in coverage as well. If they can turn out a pick-six or a fumble-recovery for a touchdown, then we are, most definitely, in business. 

Marquise Goodwin, WR Seattle Seahawks

Goodwin has actually found a nice home as the Seahawks’ No. 3 receiver. He was only seeing a handful of targets while both Metcalf and Lockett were on the field, but he saw a nice uptick last week and rewarded the team with five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. It’s a little but tougher of a match-up this week, but if you’re one of those narrative folks, this does qualify as a revenge-game.

Jauan Jennings, WR San Francisco 49ers

He’ll step in as the 49ers No. 2 receiver and should see a decent uptick in targets. If you believe the Seahawks will focus the majority of their defensive attention on McCaffrey and Aiyuk, Jennings becomes a nice under-the-radar option at a very good price for Showdown lineups.

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR San Francisco 49ers

McCloud will step into the third-receiver role for this game and should see a couple of targets come his way. He is capable of stretching the field with his speed and he doesn’t mind going across the middle for some contended catches either. He could be an interesting way to get a little weird with your lineups.

Noah Fant, TE Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers do rank sixth in DVOA against the tight end position, but Fant is seeing red-zone targets, so if you’re looking to save some salary and maybe get a little weird, we can certainly think of worse plays than this.

**Both kickers are very much in-play for tonight’s action. The lean is probably Robbie Gould of the 49ers since his kicking-points prop is a tick higher than that of Jason Myers, but either one works for salary-saving purposes.

Dart-Throw DFS Bargains

Kyle Juszczyk, FB San Francisco 49ers

How many times are we going to see Juszczyk run that wheel-route up the sideline before we try to take advantage of it? He’s seen seven targets over the last three games and wobbled his way into the end zone back in Week 13 against the Dolphins. Can lightning strike twice in the same season? We’ve seen it before so why not now?

Will Dissly, TE Seattle Seahawks

If the Seahawks are struggling inside the red zone, we all know Carroll likes for his quarterback to take the safe route and hit big ol’ Dissly in the end zone. Using him means you’re willing to concede multiple catches and more yards for a chance at the end zone, but it’s a chance like any other.

For additional fantasy football insights and NFL Week 15 best bets, check out the latest episode of the Cash It podcast with Howard Bender and Adam Ronis:

 

 

 

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