NFL Week 15 DFS contests wrap up with a very interesting Showdown Slate on Monday Night Football as we head to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers play host to the Los Angeles Rams who are now led by journeyman quarterback Baker Mayfield. This game may not have any playoff implications, but that is irrelevant for DFS purposes. All we want to know is how much scoring there will be and who is going to do it. The over/under of 39 doesn’t exactly scream barn-burner, but what can you expect when we’ve got freezing cold temperatures and two teams that have struggled all season? Once again, for our purposes, it doesn’t matter how much scoring there is. We just want to make sure our winning DFS lineups are loaded with the guys who actually find their way into the end zone.

 

 

Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -7

O/U: 39

Weather: cloudy with temperatures in the mid-to-high teens. Wind blowing SSE at 3 mph

Notable Injuries:

Los Angeles Rams

Green Bay Packers

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Los Angeles Rams

  • vs Pass: 23rd 
  • vs Run: 5th 

Green Bay Packers

  • vs Pass: 8th 
  • vs Run: 32nd 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers

It’s a home game in prime-time for Rodgers and while he hasn’t been the same quarterback we’ve all grown to love (and hate), it’s tough to not expect him to want to be in the spotlight for Monday’s action. The Rams are allowing an average of 228.6 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns allowed through the air, but, more importantly, opposing quarterbacks are posting a 94.5 passer-rating against them, eighth-highest in the NFL.

Christian Watson, WR Green Bay Packers

Watson is probably the captain’s seat chalk for this game as he has blossomed into Rodgers’ favorite target and now has eight touchdowns (seven receiving, one rushing) over his last four game. Sure, he’ll see Jalen Ramsey in coverage quite a bit, but Ramsey doesn’t shadow anymore nor is he the cover-corner he once was. Watson should se his usual complement of targets, so keep him in your lineups (captain or not), to make sure you keep pace with the field.

Cam Akers, RB Los Angeles Rams

If you’re looking for a contrarian captain’s pick for this game, then Akers makes for a potentially low-owned option. The sharps will include him because everyone knows the Packers struggles against the run, but the masses may avoid just based off Akers’ struggles this season. But Green Bay is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (154.8) and they’ve allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this year, so if Akers gets his double-digit carries (three out of the last four games), he should be able to build on the three touchdowns he’s punched in over the last two games.

Mid-Tier and DFS Value Picks

Aaron Jones, RB Green Bay Packers

The loss of Aaron Donald has certainly softened the Rams run defense and they’re allowing almost 25 more rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. We know that Rodgers loves getting the ball to Jones and we know head coach Matt LaFleur loves to establish a strong ground game. Jones does not have any injury designation so the ankle/shin shouldn’t cause him any issues, nr should it deter the team from giving him double-digit carries out of the backfield.

AJ Dillon, RB Green Bay Packers

We might see higher-than-expected ownership on Dillon given his performance over his last two games – 26 carries for 157 yards and two touchdowns – but be wary of the fact that the workload is in direct correlation to the injury to Aaron Jones. With the bye week having come and gone, Jones is healthy and should take the lead. If you believe Dillon will still be the short-yardage guy and punch one in near the goal line, then get him into your lineups.

Allen Lazard, WR Green Bay Packers

The targets have certainly come down for Lazard and you can look directly at the thumb injury to Aaron Rodgers as the reason why. As a veteran gunslinger, Rodgers has no problem heaving the ball downfield, but the throws over the middle that require pinpoint accuracy have suffered and that was a specialty of Lazard’s. He is still being targeted as a top wideout on the team and, hopefully, the bye week helped Rodgers, so if you’re pushing the chips all-in on the Packers passing game, he is very much still playing a big role.

Baker Mayfield, QB Los Angeles Rams

Believe it or not, Rams head coach Sean McVay has as close to his ideal situation as he’s had all year with Mayfield under center. The veteran quarterback is still learning the playbook, but he does exactly what McVay tells him to do when he’s on the field. McVay talks to his quarterback right up until the coms go quiet with 15 seconds left on the play-clock, but by then he’s already told Mayfield exactly what he needs to know. The Packers pass defense has been solid, but McVay should have his quarterback throwing the ball plenty.

Tyler Higbee, TE Los Angeles Rams

On paper, this looks like a fantastic match-up as the Packers rank 24th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing an average of double-digit fantasy points to the position each week. We’ve been disappointed in recent games, however, as he went from seeing eight targets per game in Weeks 10 and 11, but only eight in total since then. He does have three red zone targets over the last four games, so that should be encouraging.

Van Jefferson, WR Los Angeles Rams

Jefferson may not see a world of targets, but he’s been pretty productive with what he’s been given since returning from injury back in Week 10. He’s only averaging about two catches for 36 yards over the last five games, but he does have three touchdowns so you know when the Rams are inside the red zone, he’s going to have his number called.

Ben Skowronek, WR Los Angeles Rams

He’s sort of become the go-to guy between the 20s as most of his targets come when the Rams need to move the chains. He averaged five targets per game since he and Van Jefferson became the team’s two top options, so he appears to be a better play on Draft Kings than FanDuel due to the full-point PPR scoring.

Romeo Doubs, WR Green Bay Packers

We watched earlier in the season as Doubs and Rodgers developed a nice on-field rapport, but he’s been out for the last four games and will need to work himself back in. He could have a limited role in this game, but he should be considered a deep-threat targets for the Packers. It’s a little better than a dart-throw, though maybe not by much.

Kyren Williams, RB Los Angeles Rams 

He presents himself as another rushing option for the Rams, especially against a soft run-defense like that of the Packers. More importantly for Williams, the Packers rank 17th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so he should see some looks on shorter third-downs as well as some designed screens.

Brandon Powell, WR Los Angeles Rams

He’s a bit of a low-budget sleeper as we’ve seen him active in both the rushing and passing attacks. He’s the new option for jet-sweeps and end-arounds, so he’ll add a few points that way, but we’ve also seen him grab a handful of targets as well. He’s only seen one red-zone touch over the last seven games, but he could be an intriguing way to differentiate yourself from the rest of the herd.

Randall Cobb, WR Green Bay Packers

The veteran receiver always gets an extra look when he’s on the field with Rodgers, so if you need to save some salary and still get a handful of targets, Cobb could be your guy. He may have gotten shut out in Week 13, but he found the end zone the week prior and has three red zone targets over his last two games. 

Robert Tonyan, TE Green Bay Packers

He’s only seen 10 targets over his last four games, but the Rams rank 15th in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing double-digit fantasy points per game to the position. While the production has been down all year, the red zone targets in each of the last two games can be your silver lining.

**If you’re looking for some salary relief, both kickers should be in-play. Conditions should be fine for the game, so Mason Crosby would be the first choice with so much experience kicking at Lambeau Field in the cold, but Matt Gay has a strong leg and should be able to push a kick or two over the crossbar.

Dart-Throw DFS Bargains

Tutu Atwell, WR Los Angeles Rams

He’s been the gadget-guy for the Rams for some time, but he’s really exploded with 14 targets over the last two games. He’s turned them into seven catches for 98 yards and he’s also been used in the rushing game as well. If the Rams continue to audition their younger, less-used players, perhaps this target increase is for real and we can look to Atwell as more than just a dart-throw.

Marcedes Lewis, TE Green Bay Packers

If you’re looking for a real off-the-radar dart-throw that will barley cost you anything then Lewis could be your guy. He won’t see more than a target or two but they could come inside the red zone given the size of this behemoth.

 

 

Related NFL Articles & Tools: