Good afternoon, Family! Are you ready for some Sunday Night Football? What better way to end your week than an NFL DFS Showdown on DraftKings and FanDuel? We have a nice NFL  matchup tonight between the 5-1 Buffalo Bills and 3-4 Green Bay Packers. It’s been a tough year for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and it will not get much easier tonight as they travel to Buffalo as 10.5-point underdogs with a low 18.25 team implied total.  This showdown game has playmakers on both sides who can set your DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups up for success. The Bills are led by one of the QB/WR combos in the NFL – Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs while the Packers lay claim to Rodgers, the reigning back-to-back NFL MVP and veteran running back Aaron Jones. There is a full rundown of players and suggestions below and you can always take a look at our Weekly Match-Up Report and use NFL DFS Tools like our DFS Lineup Generator (a.k.a. the DFS lineup optimizer). 

 


First, from the words of our fearless leader at Fantasy Alarm, Howard Bender:

Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits, and everyone shares in the prizes, but, often, you need to hit on that random dart throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, now let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Spread: Bills -10.5

O/U:

Open- 48.0

Live- 47.0
 

Weather: Highmark Stadium

Temp: 46 degrees

Humidity: 76%

Precipitation: 0%
 

Notable DFS Injuries:

Packers

Aaron Rodgers, QB- thumb (Q)

Sammy Watkins, WR – hammy (Q)

Allen Lazard, WR- shoulder (OUT)

 

Bills

Taiwan Jones, RB- knees (Q)

Jake Kumerow, WR- ankle (Q)

 

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings:

Packers

Vs Pass: 11th

Vs Run: 31st
 

Bills

Vs. Pass: 4th

Vs. Run: 1st
 

KEY STATS

Points Per Game

GB- 18.3

BUF- 29.3

 

Points Against Per Game

GB- 20.9

BUF- 13.5
 

Yards Per Game

GB- 331.6

BUF- 440.8
 

Yards Against Per Game

GB- 308.4

BUF- 281.5

 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/CAPTAIN

Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) 

Allen will carry high ownership tonight and it’s certainly well deserved after throwing for 329 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs. He now has at least 24 fantasy points and multiple touchdowns in six straight games. The Packers defense is no walk in the park for opposing QBs but Allen is in matchup-proof territory and can be comfortably played in the top spot tonight for Cash games.
 

Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills) 

After doing it only once last season Diggs already has four games of 100+ receiving yards and one plus touchdowns. Once again- the Packers are solid against opposing receivers, but Diggs is coming off a monster 10 reception and 148 yard/one touchdown game against the Chiefs. Diggs is my top GPP captain while Allen is the DK Cash Capt/FD MVP 
 

Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills) 

Singletary has one of the best matchups of the game and you can’t beat the price on either site. He played 86% of the snaps last week and ended with a hearty line of 21 touches for 107 total yards. He does lack touchdowns, but it appears that the Bills have finally settled on Singletary as their every-down back. Yes, we have seen his usage go up and down in the past but at this price we don’t even need him to be a bell cow and he is hugely underpriced as a big home favorite. Singletary is my top value and certainly will be a GPP Captain in some lineups. 
 

Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers)

Jones is my leverage GPP captain tonight. The majority of the field will be looking to roster Allen or Diggs in the top spot tonight so why not take a chance on flipping the script with the Packers running back? The Bills are a top defense against the run but have been known to struggle against RBs in the passing game
 

UTILITY

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

Rodgers is clearly not having one of his signature seasons but he also is not been playing as bad as some are reporting. I will not have him in any Captain/MVP spots but there's a good chance he will be airing out the football as 11-point road underdogs. He is only $10K on DraftKings in the utility spot and as a veteran that doesn’t turn the ball over much plus lives for the lights of prime-time football ARod should make value tonight as well as the 300-yard bonus.
 

Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills) 

Davis is the home run hitter and when you have an accurate QB like Josh Allen throwing deep he is always a threat for a big play or score. He only has a 13.7% target share, but Davis leads the team in yards per reception (27.4) and yards per target (14.7). Davis is boom or bust and usually needs a touchdown to make value, so he becomes an interesting GPP leverage play due to his price tag in tonight’s Showdown. 
 

VALUE

Romeo Doubs (Green Bay Packers)

Someone is going to have to step up tonight for the Packers with Allen Lazard out. Doubs’ numbers are not good (48+ yards just once all season) but as the WR1 and he will be massively owned. He will see the brunt of the target share among the Packers receiving corps and with he potential of a negative game script as big road dogs Doubs should be a steal at only $4K on DraftKings.  
 

Tyler Bass (Buffalo Bills) 

Bass should be good for 8-10 fantasy points tonight, especially with the Bills sitting at a near 30-point team implied total. He has been a top-10 fantasy kicker over the last couple of seasons and enters this week first in the league in extra points (21). Rostering the Kicker on the favored team has become a near-must in Cash games, especially one that comes from one of most efficient offenses in the NFL. 
 

Sammy Watkins (Green Bay Packers)

Absolutely love Watkins price tonight as the GPP pivot off the chalky Doubs. If Watkins plays, he will see his share of routes in Rodgers’ dropbacks after running a route in 56% of them last week in his first game back. 

 

Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) 

Knox has struggled with injuries after a solid 2021 season. With 20 targets and 15 receptions for 148 yards and a TD on the season Knox is touchdown reliant but has a plus matchup against Quay Walker. 

 

Robert Tonyan (Green Bay Packers)

Tonyan only plays about half of the snaps but is the most reliable active pass catcher on the team (besides Jones). He enters the game as the team’s leading receiver with 30 receptions for 251 yards and one touchdown but has only had one solid game. Tonyan can be utilized as a run back utility in Bills stacks.

 

James Cook (Buffalo Bills) 

Cook is the dart play of the game. If the Bills win big, he may get some mop up duty as it appears he has taken hold of the RB2 spot with Zack Moss a healthy scratch last game. 

 

Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers)

If healthy, Watson is a fair price at only $1.4K on DraftKings. He is only viable if multi-entering GPPs, but I could see the Packers wanting to give the rookie some run to see what he looks like. 
 

STACKING SUGGESTIONS

Josh Allen (Capt)/Diggs plus a lower owned Bills WR

Stefon Diggs (Capt)/Josh Allen/Robert Tonyan/Bills DST

Aaron Jones (Capt)/Aaron Rodgers/Isaiah McKenzie/Christian Watson

Josh Allen (Capt)/Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis/Sammy Watkins

Gabe Davis (Capt)/Josh Allen/Isaiah McKenzie/Aaron Jones