Week 8 kicks off with action once again from across the pond in London as the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars face off in Wembley Stadium. There are plenty of storylines to follow heading into this matchup including the Jaguars trading James Robinson to the New York Jets as well as Russell Wilson rehabbing and stretching for four hours while his teammates died a little more on the inside. Either way, we get Sunday morning football at 9:30am ET and that means an extra NFL DFS slate to get exposure to. Be sure to take advantage of all the offerings at Fantasy Alarm including our NFL DFS Projections (be sure to filter by “DEN @ JAC”  in the Slates tab), the Fantasy Football WR/CB Matchup Report, our NFL DFS Draft Percentage Forecaster, Practice Reports, and much more to get you prepared for this game as well as Sunday’s NFL DFS main slate for Week 8!

 

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)

O/U: 40.5

Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 60’s/high 50’s as the game progresses and winds will be blowing SSW at 6-7mph.

Notable Injuries

Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars

MVP/Captain

Travis Etienne Jr., RB JAC 

The trade of James Robinson to the New York Jets signaled that it was officially Travis Etienne’s time to take over as the lead back. He’s totaled over 100 yards in three straight games and he’s broken off at least a 30-yard run in each of those games as well. He’s now in line for 15+ touches including action in the passing game as well with 12 targets in his last three outings. He’s the most expensive player on the board, but he certainly has that “break the slate” upside. Denver has allowed 546 rushing yards over the last four games so this is a spot where Etienne could carve them up with a big play or two… Or three… Or four…

Christian Kirk, WR JAC 

The fact that Kirk is more expensive than Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton is a bit surprising, but I can understand it. The aerial attack, and overall offense for Denver, has been pretty bad through seven games. So naturally, Jeudy and Sutton have suffered at times. But with that said, Kirk has operated as the WR1 for Jacksonville. In four of seven games he’s seen at least nine targets and has four touchdowns on the year. If the volume is there he can certainly pop off for over 100 receiving yards (for the DraftKings bonus) and find the end zone. That kind of upside firmly puts him in play as an MVP/Captain in tournaments.

Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

Jeudy received 11 targets last week, but those came with Brett Rypien under center. But still he was seeing about six-to-eight targets with Wilson per game. But as has been the case with most of the players on Denver, the ceiling has been pretty low from a fantasy perspective. I prefer correlating my WR Captains with the accompanying quarterback, but that doesn’t necessarily need to be the case on Sunday with Wilson exhibiting poor play and he’s coming off injury.

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN

A lot of people may be off Sutton because in his last two games he’s yielded just 8.7 total fantasy points, but he did have Brett Rypien throwing him the ball for one of those games. He still has a significant target share in this offense (24.8%) and there will be an effort to get him the ball. He’s only found the end zone once this year, but he has the kind of upside to consider as an MVP/Captain.

Mid-Tier DFS Value Plays

Russell Wilson, QB DEN

Every week there’s a new story about Captain Cringe, but at the end of the day we only want the fantasy production from this game. Wilson has only posted 20+ fantasy points twice all year in DFS and he only has five touchdown passes. Prior to the injury, he had been a little more productive on the ground with 20+ rushing yards in three straight games, but that won’t be enough to compensate for the lack of production through the air. Volume has been fairly inconsistent as well so I don’t feel great about utilizing him at Captain or MVP. On DraftKings he’ll cost $15,300 to fill that spot and it’s hard to justify that price tag with how bad he’s been.

Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

Lawrence may only have one touchdown through the air in his last three games, but he also has three rushing touchdowns in that span as well. If the volume is there, I can see a game script where Lawrence puts up 20-25 points. But he would need multiple touchdowns or the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings. He works well in lineups that feature Christian Kirk or Travis Etienne Jr. as the MVP/Captain, but if he’s not putting up 25+ points for Sunday’s game, then I don’t see how we play him at Captain.

Latavius Murray and Melvin Gordon, RB DEN

Why not just mention these two together? For what it’s worth, this backfield is essentially split which is a welcomed sign considering how things were shaping up two weeks ago when Gordon had just three carries. Both will likely see about 10-12 touches in this game, but that could change if one of them gets hot. If I have to take one I’ll give Murray the lean because I believe he’s been getting the more “high value” touches after he found the end zone last week.

Zay Jones, WR JAC

I’m a big fan of Jones this week. The pricing is great and I’m a little partial to him because he helped take down a Showdown Tournament last year in his time with the Raiders. But this is a great spot for him if the Broncos focus more on Etienne and Kirk. In four of six games this year he has at least eight targets. He’s a very sneaky player that I think may get overlooked simply because of the lack of production. But there’s been an effort to get him the ball and I love the upside this week if they continue to pepper him with targets. Similarly enough, don’t sleep on Marvin Jones Jr. He has 19 targets in his last two games and he has some big play potential. Both these pass catchers work well in Jags stacks.

Greg Dulcich, TE DEN

This price tag just seems way too low for the rookie tight end. He’s made some noise the last two weeks and has worked his way up the depth chart. He found the end zone in Week 6 and had nine targets last week with Brett Rypien under center. Can we see him maintain similar chemistry with Russell Wilson? We sure hope so. I also think he’s eligible to play at Captain/MVP in some builds and he certainly opens up salary if you go that route.

Evan Engram, TE JAC

Here’s another puzzling price tag. Engram isn’t great, but I thought he’d be about $1,200 more on DraftKings but by no means will I complain about the discount. Engram has 15 catches on 23 targets in his last three games. He just hasn’t found the end zone this year, but maybe a trip to Europe is just what Engram needs for a huge day. He has this stigma of dropping passes that I’m hoping keeps his rostership numbers down. I doubt it, but I really hope he finds the end zone on Sunday.

Dart-Throw DFS Bargains

JaMycal Hasty, RB JAC

I imagine Hasty is going to be a very popular paydown option for DFS. At $2,200 he’s worth getting exposure to based solely on the fact that Etienne can’t carry the whole workload, right? I’ll buy into the fact that Hasty is still ahead of Snoop Conner and could see maybe six-to-eight touches. If he can pull off a big touchdown like he did a couple weeks ago then he’s likely optimal. But that’s a HUGE “if.”

Marlon Mack, RB DEN

You have to scroll way down to the last $200 player to unearth Mack in the DraftKings player pool. After we observed Melvin Gordon’s questionable usage in Denver’s matchup against the Chargers, it’s clear the Broncos could be going with a committee approach. Mack isn’t a slam dunk, nor is he a lock but at $200 he just needs a couple touches and production to help us out. Mack was signed to the active roster on Monday and Nathaniel Hackett has said that Gordon is definitely an option for some work on Sunday. That’s a good sign and if he can just carve out some semblance of a role in this offense, he’ll likely catch a fire emoji by game’s end. UPDATE: Marlon Mack is officially inactive for today's game.

D/ST’s and Kickers

If you’ve read any of my previous Showdown Playbooks, you know I’m not wild about playing these positions at Captain/MVP. By all means use them as a Flex or Utility option. Can a D/ST or Kicker be optimal as a Captain/MVP? Yes, but the chances of it happening are about 7%. I usually only play one of these positions in the Flex. However, the projected total is so low in this game that I’m not opposed to playing two options. I don’t like playing both D/ST’s but I’m fine playing both Kickers. Kickers and Quarterbacks correlate very well. I won’t write up either position in depth because the Kicker position is dependent on the offense moving the ball effectively but staying out of the end zone. Kickers won’t break the slate kicking extra points. Both D/ST’s are in play since there’s enough concern on both offenses to warrant getting exposure to both across multiple lineups. And as always, it’s a position of variance.

I’m looking forward to this matchup, I hope it’s a surprising shootout with a lot of fantasy production. Join me in the NFL DFS Discord Channel if you have any questions leading up to lock!

 

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