Week 6 NFL DFS wraps up tonight with another classic AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. The teams are trending in opposite directions right now as the Chargers have won their last two while the Broncos have lost two in a row and are doing it in ugly fashion. In fact, four of the Broncos five games have combined for an average of just 25 points. Either teams are playing down to their level or their defense is that good. Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams are set to find out tonight while Russell Wilson tries to lead his team up and down the field with both the finesse and tenacity their fans have been longing for all year. Now the questions remain – will we get that explosive offensive output that makes playing a DFS Showdown slate fun or will the Broncos drag us down into yet another prime-time disappointment. Either way it falls, we intend on having the right guys in our lineups as we look to win our DFS contests.

Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

 

 

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -4.5

O/U: 45.5

Weather: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the high 60s w/ winds blowing WSW at 7 mph

Notable Injuries:

Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Denver Broncos

  • vs Pass: 2nd 
  • vs Run: 15th 

Los Angeles Chargers

  • vs Pass: 12th 
  • vs Run: 22nd 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Austin Ekeler, RB LAC – Over the last two games, Ekeler has been phenomenal, rushing for a total of 233 yards with three touchdowns while also catching 10 of 11 targets for 75 yards and two more scores. Granted, those numbers came against Houston and Cleveland, but Denver’s run defense isn’t too far behind the others. They allow and average of 112.4 rushing yards per game, they’ve given up two rushing touchdowns and we just watched unheralded rookie Deon Jackson rush for 4.8 yards per carry while Josh Jacobs completely carved them up the week before. Ekeler should have no problem producing tonight.

Melvin Gordon, RB DEN – This is Gordon’s third season with the Broncos, but you never forget your first, right? If he is healthy, and we may not even know his full availability until game-time, then look for Gordon to take his old team to the woodshed tonight. The Chargers run defense was torn up by the Browns last week to the tune of 213 rushing yards and they have now allowed an average of 165 rushing yards per game over their last three. If Gordon is playing without limitations, you may just want him in your top spot tonight.

Mike Boone, RB DEN – If Gordon is limited or if we suddenly get word that his neck and rib injuries are just too much, then Boone is likely to step in as the Broncos lead back. Yes, they have Latavius Murray and we’ll get to him in a moment, but Boone will get the edge as he should take on the bigger role, especially as the pass-catcher from this backfield. Not only are the Chargers allowing an average of 130.4 rushing yards per game with five rushing touchdowns allowed this season, but they also rank 30th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If the Broncos are playing from behind, which they usually are, then Boone should see plenty of snaps and touches.

Mid-Tier Value Plays

Latavius Murray RB DEN – So here is where it could get a little weird for the Broncos and why you’re going to have to watch pre-game warm-ups like a hawk. If Gordon can’t go tonight then the workload will be shared between Boone and Murray. Obviously, Murray profiles as more of a lead back with Boone handling the third-down work, so if Gordon is out, having both Boone and Murray in your Showdown lineup could be a good thing. Again, the Chargers run defense is incredibly soft, so if this game grinds down to the halt like almost every other Broncos game, using multiple running backs could be your winning ticket.

Justin Herbert, QB LAC – This should be an interesting game for Herbert, who is coming off a fairly quiet performance against the Browns last week. Denver’s secondary has been strong this season and we expect a heavy dose of rushing from Ekeler. But you don’t own a Ferrari to keep it in the garage which means Herbert should be out there slinging the rock enough to be worthy of using in your Showdown lineup. The Broncos play a lot of Cover-2 which Herbert should be able to carve up some, but they do flip back and forth to some man-coverage as well which will complicate things somewhat.

Mike Williams, WR LAC – The Chargers are going to have to get creative and make sure that Williams isn’t lining up opposite Patrick Surtain the entire time. When he is on the other side, facing either Damarri Mathis or Darius Phillips, he’ll have that trademark physical advantage Williams has over most cover-corners. Without Keenan Allen, things have been a little tough for Williams, but he’s come through for back-to-back 100-yard efforts and has two touchdowns through his first five games.

Russell Wilson, QB DEN – It’s an amazing time when you have to say that Wilson makes for an interesting contrarian pick and it’s because of his performance, not his price tag. Wilson and his receivers have had tremendous difficulty getting on the same page and this offense looks like it is perpetually stuck in the mud. We’ve been waiting for the sudden breakout, but have left virtually every Broncos game wanting more. If you think the breakout comes tonight, you will definitely have the contrarian advantage.

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN – If you believe in Wilson tonight, then you should pair him up with Sutton who, at least on paper, has a distinct advantage over Chargers cover-corners Asante Samuel and J.C. Jackson. He’s got the size and speed to beat both, whether it’s stretching the field or coming over the top in traffic. He’s posted good but not great numbers, but, like Wilson, you definitely feel a breakout coming at some point. If this is that day, then get onboard.

DeAndre Carter, WR LAC – If there is a weakness in this Denver secondary, it is coming against the slot receiver. K’Wuan Williams doesn’t exactly grade out too well in coverage and he certainly does not have the speed to keep up with Carter. Denver ranks 17th in DVOA against the opposing slot-receiver, so if you think Williams is going to be blanketed by Surtain, we actually like the pivot to Carter. 

Joshua Palmer, WR LAC – Filling in for Keenan Allen isn’t so easy, is it? Palmer has stepped into the No. 2 receiver role for the Chargers, but the results have been middling, at best. Just seven targets over the last two games might have more to do with Ekeler’s stellar performance than anything else, but Herbert just doesn’t lean on Palmer like we would if Allen were playing. One thing working in Palmer’s favor would be a potential absence or limited performance by Damarri Mathis. If the Broncos have to turn more to Darius Phillips, it could help a bit.

Gerald Everett, TE LAC – It has been an up and down season for Everett so far. He’s looked great in three games, averaging 62 yards per game and scoring twice and then he’s fallen off the proverbial cliff in two, amassing just 27 yards on three catches. The Broncos rank fifth in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Not great, Bob. Not great.

Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN – Again, if you think Wilson and his receivers find themselves on the same page tonight, then Jeudy is worth a look, specifically on DraftKings because of its full-point PPR format, Jeudy has averaged just over six targets per game and has three red-zone looks in the last two. He’s played second-fiddle to Sutton for the most part, but this situation feels more like a 1 and 1A as opposed to a 1 and a 2. Again, probably more of a contrarian play these days, but it’s not like Wilson isn’t going to have to throw the ball at some point.

Dart Throw Bargain Plays

Joshua Kelley, RB LAC – He’s a bruising back who does a good job between the tackles when the Chargers need a little more ground and pound and less finesse. He’ll never supplant Ekeler as the No. 1, but he does find his way into some touches, he’s gotten some red zone carries and Denver’s run defense is bleh.

Eric Saubert, TE DEN – The Chargers rank 16th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. He’s actually cheaper than Albert Okwuebunam which works in our favor because if he is healthy, he’ll see the targets. But that questionable tag stands out like a turd in a punchbowl, so if you are planning to use him, be prepared to pivot to Okwuebunam.