For the second consecutive night, the NFL gives us an inter-conference matchup in primetime. For Monday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints visit the Kansas City Chiefs and it’s tough to know what we should be making of this game to be honest. We’ll dive into the storylines below as we prepare to build out our winning NFL DFS Showdown lineups with the latest Saints vs. Chiefs picks!

 

 

 

Through their first two games, the New Orleans Saints put up 91 points and looked unstoppable on offense. As someone who predicted they would have a bottom five offense in this league, I was fully prepared to crack an egg over my head. Since then, they’ve scored just 36 points and have dropped back-to-back games to the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.

The offense isn’t quite hitting its stride like it did the first two weeks, and Derek Carr has just 381 passing yards in his last two games. The crazy thing is that the offensive line is still doing a pretty decent job. Carr is only being sacked about once per game, but defenses have made the necessary adjustment to scheming for this offense. Can they find the magic from their first two games or does this team look more like what we were expecting heading into the year?

The Kansas City Chiefs are certainly licking their wounds heading into this game, but they are finding ways to win. You can make an argument about the officiating the last few weeks but at the end of the day, they’re winning games.

They have lost Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice to injury and Travis Kelce is looking every bit of a 35-year-old tight end (who just celebrated his birthday on Saturday). But when you have a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes under center, you can never be counted out of any game.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Chiefs MNF Odds At DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Saints (+195)
    • Chiefs (-238)
  • Game Total: Over 43 (-112) / Under 43 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Saints (+190)
    • Chiefs (-230)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-104) / Under 43.5 (-118)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Saints vs. Chiefs MNF, October 7th

It’s shaping up to be a chilly, but gorgeous evening at Arrowhead Stadium. It seems like temperatures will be in the mid-60’s around kickoff with clear skies. The temps will gradually drop off as the evening progresses and there’s no rain in the forecast. Additionally, winds will be very low so the conditions are great all around.

Saints vs. Chiefs Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Kansas City Chiefs are largely healthy if you take away the injuries to Rice and Pacheco. Their injury report was rather clean. We should know more on the extent of Rice’s knee injury (hopefully) on Monday. If it hasn’t been announced that his season is over by now, then I’d say he has a chance of playing again this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire sounds like he’ll miss this week’s game as he’s dealing with some personal issues.

The Saints are not as fortunate regarding their injuries. Taysom Hill will miss this game with a fractured rib after he scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 4. On the offensive line, Cesar Ruiz and Shane Lemieux will miss the game as well so perhaps that puts Carr more at risk of getting sacked. And on the defensive side of the ball, the Saints will not have Willie Gay and Payton Turner for this matchup.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain For Monday Night Football, 10/7

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $17,000

Once again, we lean into the volume with our first Captain selection for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. Kamara has seen at least 20 touches in every game this year. At a certain point, that should be unsustainable. But at the same time, he’s holding up. He did pop up on the injury report earlier in the week but doesn’t carry a designation for this game.

He has heavy involvement in the passing game for a running back. He’s already caught 17-of-20 targets on the year with six total touchdowns. He’s posted 22+ fantasy points on DraftKings in three-of-four games this year. The Chiefs have not been easy to run on by any means. Since getting torched by Lamar Jackson on the ground in Week 1 the Chiefs have yielded a total of 211 rushing yards in their last three games. 

Fortunately, Kamara can compensate with his ~70% route participation rate. And who knows, maybe this is one of those off-the-wall games he catches a bunch of passes for short yardage and is the optimal captain simply because of volume.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

Kelce’s actually a decent value on DraftKings as the seventh-most expensive player. We all assumed Rice would miss this game and DraftKings still priced him up over Kelce. 

Kelce is older and he’s slower. But two of Mahomes’ best weapons are unavailable so it’s possible he leans more on ole reliable with Kelce who just celebrated a birthday two days ago. Kelce had just a 14.5% first-read target share in the first three weeks but that ballooned to 46.7% in Week 4, where he led all tight ends with a 94% route participation rate.

Xavier Worthy does have upside, but he may not get the volume Kelce will. Kelce’s target per route run rate went up to 27% once Rice left last week’s game and he had a 44% air yardage share as well. It’s kind of boring because we aren’t making a bold claim with Kelce, but he can definitely hit the optimal lineup based on volume in this game.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

I’m taking a bold stance for this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. It’s not that I don’t like Chris Olave, but there are some coverage schemes that I don’t think align with this being a huge game for him. Playable at captain? Of course. He’s a great receiver. But I love this matchup for Shaheed.

The Chiefs utilize press coverage more than any other team in the league and Shaheed destroys press coverage. Per Reception Perception, in 2023 Shaheed had a 74.4% success rate against press coverage and even against zone coverage, Shaheed has been getting more looks this year.

Shaheed is running nearly as many routes as Chris Olave. On top of that, he has a 32.4% first-read target share compared to 27.9% for Olave. And that’s not a bad rate for Olave, but it emphasizes how confident the offense is getting Shaheed the ball. And because he’s the cheaper option, I’ll roll the dice with more captain shares of Shaheed than Olave.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays For Monday

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $16,000

FanDuel’s scoring tends to lead to quarterbacks being the optimal MVP more often than on DraftKings. Mahomes offers a good floor, but the ceiling is worth calling into question. He hasn’t thrown for 250+ yards in his last three games and he has a 6:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the year.

Sure, interceptions only equate to losing one point on DraftKings. But we often don’t consider the points we aren’t getting when the offense has to come off the field.

Mahomes still has a good offensive line in front of him, but the weapons are dwindling outside of Kelce and Xavier Worthy. It would be refreshing to see him more active on the ground with his legs, but that hasn’t been the case. He’s a good correlation/flex play on both sites, with a slight bump on FanDuel.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Admittedly, I am higher on Shaheed from purely an exposure strategy. He’s likely making more lineups at Captain than Olave. However, I’ll still get some shares of Olave at Captain just in case he does pop off. 

It hasn’t been an explosive start for Olave, but he is a solid receiver. Through three games he only had 14 targets, which was stunning when you consider the 91 points the Saints scored in their first three games. He found the end zone in Week 3 and then had 10 targets last week. Pro Football Focus even went so far as to give Olave the second-best receiving grade through the first four games.

Since trading L’Jarius Sneed in the offseason, the Chiefs don’t have anyone that can really shadow opposing receivers. But if they do opt to send someone out against Olave (best of luck to them), Olave is one of the best in the league at creating separation from the shadow coverage.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $12,000

I’m not quite ready to anoint him a league winner by any means, but I was surprised to see him get 16 touches in his return to the Kansas City Chiefs. The performance wasn’t explosive by any measure as he totaled just 10.5 fantasy points per DraftKings scoring. But the workload was nice for a player who, I thought, would need a ramp up period.

Now we should add some context. Carson Steele got the start last week for the Chiefs and lost a fumble in the first half. So the team effectively punished him by pivoting to Hunt and Perine as most of Hunt’s work came in the second half. So I do think there’s a chance Hunt only sees maybe a dozen touches and perhaps Steele has learned his lesson. But there is a chance this backfield is a bit more balanced this week.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Justin Watson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

If we’re going to find value anywhere in this game, it’s likely among the Chiefs wide receivers. On the season, Watson is only running routes at a 48.6% rate, but that increased to 62% when Rashee Rice left the field last week.

Now he only caught two passes for 27 yards. But Patrick Mahomes’ best options are a rookie receiver who hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game, a 35-year-old tight end, and a few other pass catchers on this island of misfit toys. So I’m expecting more routes and opportunities for Watson in this spot and that typically correlates to more work.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $7,000

Gray is simply another guy that could pop off among the Chiefs as we navigate this pool of players who could get more work. Perhaps the Chiefs deploy a little more 12 personnel? Gray  did play 32 offensive snaps last week and caught all four of his targets for 40 yards.

I am a little surprised he’s only $2,600 for this Showdown slate. By comparison, he was $2,600 for Sunday Night Football in Week 3 and $2,800 in Week 2 against. Those were games where Rice was healthy. Now Rice is out, Gray caught four passes last week, and his pricing is still under $3,000? Doesn’t make sense to me and I’m hoping this isn’t a trap.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $2,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

Foster Moreau, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $1,800 | FanDuel: $6,500

Johnson was a full participant late in the week at practice, but he’s been dealing with a forearm injury and only has four catches on the year. Moreau has been getting more work in of late, but has just one catch in his last three games. So both are hard to trust for a decent amount of targets.

However, the Chiefs have been pretty bad defending the tight end position. Isaiah Likely popped for nine catches, 111 yards, and a score in Week 1. Mark Andrews added two catches for 14 yards as well. Then Mike Gesicki collected seven receptions for 91 yards on them in Week 2. And Kyle Pitts had two catches for 59 yards in Week 3 but had a long catch where he was tackled just short of the goal line. If I’m being completely transparent, Gesicki and Pitts don’t typically line up “in line” as often as most tight ends in this league.

It’s hard to imagine either Johnson or Moreau having a massive game, but we can punt down here if we’re looking for a little value from New Orleans.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool, 10/7

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