As we head into Week 17 of the NFL season, or championship week for those playing in season long leagues, some unlikely suspects are emerging as potential league winners based on their recent usage and production. 

Now more than ever league managers are scrambling to set lineups featuring as many fantasy relevant running backs (RBs) whose potential snap counts, receiving targets, and carries give them the best chance to win their league’s championship. However, they might find that some of their best options might have been right under their noses all along. 

In last week’s column we mentioned that Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard was starting to see an uptick in his playing time and overall production. Hubbard got the start and continued to be more involved in the Panthers’ offense in Week 16. He and D’Onta Foreman played an almost identical percentage of offensive snaps. Hubbard (125 rushing yards) played 46% of the teams’ offensive snaps and Foreman played 44%. Foreman rebounded nicely from a recent slump by rushing for 165 yards and scoring a TD. Hubbard and Foreman square off against the Bucs in Week 17, who’ve been a bit more generous to RBs lately. 

Just about all of us, including the Rams, had written Cam Akers off earlier this season but he seems fully recovered from his Achilles injury and has six TDs (three of which came in Week 16) and a 4.45 YPC average in his last four games. He’s also averaging 19.5 PPR fantasy points per game during that timeframe.

James Conner proves that sometimes slow and steady wins the race. He has a modest 4.2 YPC average on the season but his 22.4 PPR fantasy points per game average over the past five weeks leads all RBs. In addition, he has seven total TDs and is playing an average of just over 92% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps in his last six games. 

There are a few other RBs and team backfield situations that deserve our attention as we approach the last two weeks of the regular season. Let’s dive in and analyze their recent and potential future RB usage and attempt to project how their RBs will be utilized as the season continues winding down.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette is only averaging 3.6 YPC this season. That’s his lowest average since 2018. Fournette’s average rate of offensive snaps played has also dropped from 85% after Week 3 to just under 60% in his last 11 games. Fournette dropped a hint at why his production has taken a hit this season in a since deleted tweet that revealed that he’s been playing through a Lisfranc injury. Fournette didn’t mention when he initially suffered the injury, and head coach Todd Bowles told the media that he didn’t know the severity of the injury. The timing of the tweet is ironic since it came right after Fournette’s most productive game of the season. Fournette led Buccaneers RBs with 20 carries and he played the highest percentage of the teams’ offensive snaps (60%). In comparison, Rachaad White had seven carries and played just 36% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps. Fournette has been more productive than White this season, averaging 15.6 PPR fantasy points per game. He also usually runs more routes per game than White, who has averaged 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game on the season. Fournette’s injury is worth monitoring this week but it’s likely that he will continue to play through it in Week 17.

Indianapolis Colts

In the Colts’ first game since Jonathan Taylor (ankle) was placed on season ending IR, Zack Moss dominated playing time among Colts RBs. Moss played 69% of the teams’ offensive snaps and rushed for 65 yards on 12 carries for a 5.42 YPC average. Deon Jackson played just 15% of the teams’ offensive snaps. He didn’t carry the ball, but he led Colts RBs with three catches. As expected, Jordan Wilkins was promoted from the Colts’ practice squad. He was a depth piece, playing 15% of the teams’ snaps and he had just one carry.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks’ backfield continues to be ravaged by injuries. Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas managed to play despite being questionable all week due to ankle injuries. However, Travis Homer suffered an ankle injury early in Week 16, knocking him out of the game. Dallas took over the pass catching duties the rest of the way. He ran 30 routes, catching six passes for 32 yards. Monitor Homer’s progress this week. Should he be out Dallas would once again play the pass catching role. The Seahawks did promote Wayne Gallman and Godwin Igwebuike from their practice squad in Week 16 in order to add some depth to their backfield and may need to do so again this week. 

Houston Texans

He wasn’t very effective (just 2.0 YPC), but Royce Freeman was the lead back operating out of the Texans’ backfield. He played 55% of the teams’ offensive snaps and had twice as many carries (16) than Dare Ogunbowale. Freeman and Rex Burkhead each ran 10 routes. Burkhead was targeted twice, and Freeman was targeted once. Based on his role in Week 16 Freeman has some fantasy value, however high usage doesn’t always lead to high fantasy production. Texans RB do have a favorable matchup against the Jaguars who’ve given up the ninth highest average of fantasy points per game to the position over the past four weeks.

Chicago Bears

Khalil Herbert was activated from the IR for Week 16 and saw his first game action since Week 10. He played 41% of the teams’ offensive snaps however David Montgomery had 16 carries compared to Herbert’s six. Montgomery caught all four of his targets and Herbert snagged two of his three targets, but he recorded negative receiving yardage. Montgomery played 67% of the Bears’ Week 16 offensive snaps and continues to be the Bears RB to start on a weekly basis. 

Washington Commanders

Jonathan Williams played his highest percentage of offensive snaps of the season (27%).  Williams’ increased activity was probably directly related to Antonio Gibson suffering what head coach Ron Rivera called a sprain. Williams played in 18 of the Commanders’ last 19 offensive snaps of the game. Rivera indicated that Gibson’s injury will be monitored closely and further evaluated as Week 17 kickoff approaches. 

Green Bay Packers

Packers RB Aaron Jones’ health should also be monitored this week. He appeared on the Packers’ injury report this week with a knee injury and his snap count was somewhat limited. Jones, who was attended to on the sidelines during the game, played 25 snaps compared to 38 for A.J. Dillon.  If Jones were to be inactive in Week 16 Dillon would take over as the teams’ lead back and Patrick Taylor Jr. would back him up.

Miami Dolphins

After missing Week 15 due to a hip injury, Jeff Wilson Jr. returned to action and split carries with Raheem Mostert in Week 16. Wilson played slightly more snaps and ran four more routes than Mostert, but Wilson only had one more carry (9) than Mostert. Wilson did find the end zone last week but the last thing that fantasy managers want to see is a 50/50 split in a backfield leading up to fantasy football championship week.