Understanding the Importance of NFL Red Zone Stats
As we roll through the month of August, the fantasy football season is fast approaching. If you’re like me, you’ve already completed several fantasy football best ball drafts to get ready for the upcoming 2022 NFL season. Not only are you finding your fantasy football sleepers and favorite late-round targets, but you’re likely also building up your fantasy football “Do-Not-Draft” lists. NFL red zone stats and trends are a key way to help us find the gems in fantasy football ADP and NFL pre-season projections. Each week of the season, I will be looking at the red zone stats from the past week, as well as the 2022-2023 season as a whole, to see who stands out, what trends are emerging, and who could be in line for regression to the mean in the touchdown department. While this article won't focus on fantasy football player rankings, it will be a valuable resource for identifying what players have their quarterback’s or coach’s attention in the 20-yard window that arguably matters the most for fantasy football. This article may be more geared toward seasonal fantasy football advice, but those making NFL DFS lineups on a regular basis will also be able to benefit. The in-season articles will feature more numbers and fantasy football statistics, but this primer is just going to wet your whistle and get you excited for the 2022 fantasy football season.
Touchdowns Often Lead to Breakouts
It seems obvious, but it’s the truth. Touchdowns multiply fantasy points quickly, and a bunch of them catapult players up the rankings. When we look at the leaders at the four major offensive positions last season in Half-PPR setups, here is what we see:
- We’ll get into quarterbacks running into the end zone later, but in terms of throwing the football: Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen had the most passing attempts inside the 10-yard line last season. Of quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts within the red zone, Davis Mills and Tua Tagovailoa had the highest completion percentage (65%).
- The top seven fantasy running backs last year and 11 of the top 13 RBs scored at least 10 touchdowns. Coincidentally, the top six scoring RBs all had double-digit rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season.
- Of the 10 wide receivers who had at least 25% of their team’s targets within the red zone, the average number of touchdowns was 6.8. Michael Pittman Jr. had just three TDs and DJ Moore had four. Progression to the mean for those two could be quite nice, as they finished as the WR13 and WR17, respectively, despite the dearth of touchdowns.
- Imagine if Kyle Pitts had scored more touchdowns last season… He saw an 18% target share in the red zone, but scored just one touchdown. Another interesting name is Cole Kmet, who saw 21% of his team’s red zone targets, but never found the end zone.
Opportunity is king in fantasy football – we all know that. However, opportunities within the red zone are critical, especially when projecting touchdown growth.
Red Zone Carries/Targets are the Money Carries/Targets
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, but opportunity is king in fantasy football. Opportunity can cover up a lack of efficiency for fantasy purposes and red zone carries – and most likely production – can quickly make up for it tenfold. James Conner was a top-five running back in Half-PPR setups last year thanks to his 15 rushing touchdowns, but he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and had 752 rushing yards on 202 attempts. Najee Harris had 15 more carries than Joe Mixon, but ran for five less yards on the ground. Nick Chubb ran for 59 more yards than Harris, despite having 79 fewer carries.
While a player can be profitable with a lack of touchdowns, it’s much harder. However, more often than not, work in the red zone sustains a touchdown floor. It can help offset some of the wacky touchdown predictability, or unpredictability for that matter, we see on a year-to-year basis. Red zone work sustains a solid fantasy floor, but also points to potentially massive upside.
Pay Attention to Teams with Greedy QBs
The most notable recent case of this is Cam Newton with the New England Patriots back in 2020. Newton had 12 red zone rushing touchdowns that season and he handled over 43% of the team’s carries inside the red zone. If we look inside the 10-yard line and 5-yard line, he handled 51.7% and 73.1% of the carries, respectively. Heading into the 2021 season, the knock on Damien Harris was that Newton was vulturing too many of the red zone touches that Harris needed to establish fantasy dominance. Well, the Patriots cut Newton to roll with Mac Jones, and Harris had 13 rushing touchdowns in the red zone and handled over 47% of the team’s red zone carries last season.
I’m not saying that touchdown production can’t be had when your quarterback is stealing red zone carries, but it’s something that does need to be mentioned. During the course of the season, we’ll be able to dive into this more, but here are some notable quarterbacks and the amount of red zone work they “stole” from their running backs in 2021:
| Quarterback | % of Team’s RZ Carries | Top Red Zone RB | Red Zone Carries |
| Jalen Hurts | 33% | 21% | |
| Josh Allen | 28% | 30% | |
| Lamar Jackson | 28% | 26% | |
| Kyler Murray | 25% | 42% | |
| Justin Herbert | 22% | 44% | |
| Dak Prescott | 19% | 51% | |
| Ryan Tannehill | 17% | 43% |
Again, not saying it cannot be done, but it is worth noting. Also, for DFS purposes, it’s nice to know what quarterbacks sneak some considerable end zone work, a la Justin Herbert.
The fantasy football red zone report here at Fantasy Alarm will be your one stop shop for all things red zone opportunity, production, and more! Stay tuned for more red zone stats and trends as the NFL season rolls on.
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Related NFL Links:
- FREE Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Football Draft Guide
- 2022 Fantasy Football Player Rankings
- 2022 Fantasy Football ADP
- 2022 NFL Training Camp Report August 8: Does Kareem Hunt Belong on Your Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List?
- Understanding and Navigating Fantasy Football ADP
- Identifying Breakout Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.