As we roll through the month of August, the fantasy football season is fast approaching. If you’re like me, you’ve already completed several fantasy football best ball drafts to get ready for the upcoming 2022 NFL season. Not only are you finding your fantasy football sleepers and favorite late-round targets, but you’re likely also building up your fantasy football “Do-Not-Draft” lists. NFL red zone stats and trends are a key way to help us find the gems in fantasy football ADP and NFL pre-season projections. Each week of the season, I will be looking at the red zone stats from the past week, as well as the 2022-2023 season as a whole, to see who stands out, what trends are emerging, and who could be in line for regression to the mean in the touchdown department. While this article won't focus on fantasy football player rankings, it will be a valuable resource for identifying what players have their quarterback’s or coach’s attention in the 20-yard window that arguably matters the most for fantasy football. This article may be more geared toward seasonal fantasy football advice, but those making NFL DFS lineups on a regular basis will also be able to benefit. The in-season articles will feature more numbers and fantasy football statistics, but this primer is just going to wet your whistle and get you excited for the 2022 fantasy football season.

 

 

Touchdowns Often Lead to Breakouts

It seems obvious, but it’s the truth. Touchdowns multiply fantasy points quickly, and a bunch of them catapult players up the rankings. When we look at the leaders at the four major offensive positions last season in Half-PPR setups, here is what we see:

  • We’ll get into quarterbacks running into the end zone later, but in terms of throwing the football: Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen had the most passing attempts inside the 10-yard line last season. Of quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts within the red zone, Davis Mills and Tua Tagovailoa had the highest completion percentage (65%).
  • The top seven fantasy running backs last year and 11 of the top 13 RBs scored at least 10 touchdowns. Coincidentally, the top six scoring RBs all had double-digit rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season.
  • Of the 10 wide receivers who had at least 25% of their team’s targets within the red zone, the average number of touchdowns was 6.8. Michael Pittman Jr. had just three TDs and DJ Moore had four. Progression to the mean for those two could be quite nice, as they finished as the WR13 and WR17, respectively, despite the dearth of touchdowns.
  • Imagine if Kyle Pitts had scored more touchdowns last season… He saw an 18% target share in the red zone, but scored just one touchdown. Another interesting name is Cole Kmet, who saw 21% of his team’s red zone targets, but never found the end zone.

Opportunity is king in fantasy football – we all know that. However, opportunities within the red zone are critical, especially when projecting touchdown growth.

Red Zone Carries/Targets are the Money Carries/Targets

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, but opportunity is king in fantasy football. Opportunity can cover up a lack of efficiency for fantasy purposes and red zone carries – and most likely production – can quickly make up for it tenfold. James Conner was a top-five running back in Half-PPR setups last year thanks to his 15 rushing touchdowns, but he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and had 752 rushing yards on 202 attempts. Najee Harris had 15 more carries than Joe Mixon, but ran for five less yards on the ground. Nick Chubb ran for 59 more yards than Harris, despite having 79 fewer carries.

While a player can be profitable with a lack of touchdowns, it’s much harder. However, more often than not, work in the red zone sustains a touchdown floor. It can help offset some of the wacky touchdown predictability, or unpredictability for that matter, we see on a year-to-year basis. Red zone work sustains a solid fantasy floor, but also points to potentially massive upside.

Pay Attention to Teams with Greedy QBs

The most notable recent case of this is Cam Newton with the New England Patriots back in 2020. Newton had 12 red zone rushing touchdowns that season and he handled over 43% of the team’s carries inside the red zone. If we look inside the 10-yard line and 5-yard line, he handled 51.7% and 73.1% of the carries, respectively. Heading into the 2021 season, the knock on Damien Harris was that Newton was vulturing too many of the red zone touches that Harris needed to establish fantasy dominance. Well, the Patriots cut Newton to roll with Mac Jones, and Harris had 13 rushing touchdowns in the red zone and handled over 47% of the team’s red zone carries last season. 

I’m not saying that touchdown production can’t be had when your quarterback is stealing red zone carries, but it’s something that does need to be mentioned. During the course of the season, we’ll be able to dive into this more, but here are some notable quarterbacks and the amount of red zone work they “stole” from their running backs in 2021:

Quarterback

% of Team’s RZ Carries

Top Red Zone RB

Red Zone Carries

Jalen Hurts

33%

Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders

21%

Josh Allen

28%

Zack Moss

30%

Lamar Jackson

28%

Latavius Murray

26%

Kyler Murray

25%

James Conner

42%

Justin Herbert

22%

Austin Ekeler

44%

Dak Prescott

19%

Ezekiel Elliott

51%

Ryan Tannehill

17%

Derrick Henry

43%


 

Again, not saying it cannot be done, but it is worth noting. Also, for DFS purposes, it’s nice to know what quarterbacks sneak some considerable end zone work, a la Justin Herbert.

The fantasy football red zone report here at Fantasy Alarm will be your one stop shop for all things red zone opportunity, production, and more! Stay tuned for more red zone stats and trends as the NFL season rolls on. 

 


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