Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us and while all the focus over the past months has been on seasonal fantasy football drafts and building out those fantasy football player rankings it is finally time to turn our attention to some NFL DFS for Week 1 of the regular season. Week 1 is always a fun time to build DFS lineups because pricing has been out for a while and opportunities to create some unique roster builds given the value plays that are usually on the board is key. An important part of all NFL DFS lineups is figuring out your DFS stacks and your DFS stacks generally start at the quarterback position. So, let’s dive into the top plays, values and fades for NFL DFS Week 1.

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NFL DFS QB Top Plays

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offense will look a little different this season with Tyreek Hill now in Miami but Patrick Mahomes is still the top priced QB on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week as he finds himself going up against the Arizona Cardinals in the game that currently has the highest expected total at 53.5 points. 

While Hill is gone, the Chiefs this offseason did invest at the receiver position as they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling during free agency and used a second-round pick on receiver Skyy Moore. 

The top target in this offense once again figures to be Travis Kelce but it is worth noting that the Cardinals were among the top teams in the league last season when it came to defending the tight end position.

 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

The AFC West is going to be a fun division to watch this season and 2022 kicks off where the 2021 regular season ended with a matchup between the Raiders and the Chargers. Los Angeles is a 3.5-point home favorite this week in a game that has the second-highest point total on the board at 52.5-points. 

Herbert had a phenomenal sophomore season, throwing for 5,014 yards with 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 302 yards and three scores on the ground. In two games against the Raiders last season, he totaled six touchdowns with just one interception.

When it comes to stacking with Herbert the choices are pretty elite with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both coming into this season as top 15 wide receivers. Though not common, you could even include running back Austin Ekeler as part of a three-man stack given Ekeler’s elite pass catching ability and overall involvement in the team’s passing offense.

 

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

There hasn’t been a player this offseason that I’ve been higher on than Jalen Hurts. In 2021, he finished ninth in total points but sixth in fantasy points per game. This offseason, the Eagles made an investment to help him out as they went and acquired receiver A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans. Brown now gives Hurts a receiving group of Brown, DeVonta Smith, who had a great rookie season in 2021, and tight end Dallas Goedert. 

When it comes to fantasy appeal though, we love the rushing upside that Hurts brings to the table. Much in the way Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are capable of having monster DFS weeks because of their rushing ability, as does Jalen Hurts. In 2021, Hurts ran for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns over 15 games. Had he played in all 17 games he would have neared the 900 yard rushing mark.

Hurts also has himself a great Week 1 matchup with the Eagles facing off against a Lions team that still figures to be pretty bad this season in a game that has a 48.5-point total which is the third-highest total on the main slate.

 

NFL DFS QB Mid-Price Plays

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

When we talk about good sophomore seasons, Burrow’s name is in the ring as well as he came back from a bad knee injury suffered during his rookie campaign to throw for 4,611 yards with 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while leading his team to the Super Bowl.

The Bengals have a home matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. The Bengals won both games against the Steelers last season but didn’t need Burrow to really do all that much. He threw for less than 200 yards in each game but completed over 75% of his throws, totaling four touchdowns and just one interception.

Many are expecting Burrow to contend for the leagues passing title in 2022 with top targets in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins potentially being the best WR duo in the NFL this season. If Burrow is to have that big leap this year then getting off to a nice Week 1 is a good way to kickstart it. 

 

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

New offense in Minnesota has many excited for what we could see out of this passing offense which was already pretty good to begin with. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards with 33 touchdowns last season and he had thrown for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns the year before. Justin Jefferson has established himself as one of the leagues best receivers and Adam Thielen continues to be a touchdown catching machine. The evolution of the team’s passing attack this year under new head coach Kevin O’Connell also has some interested in third wide receiver K.J. Osborn as a possible sleeper candidate this season as well.

The Vikings have a home matchup against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 where Minnesota is currently a 1.5-point home underdog in a game with a 48.5-point game total. Close games plus high totals generally equal plenty of fantasy production.

 

NFL DFS QB Value Plays

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not sure we will get Carr this cheap on DraftKings against this season. In 2021 he threw for a career best 4,800 yards and really didn’t have the receivers to do it. 2022 is going to look a lot different for this Raiders now that new head coach Josh McDaniels is there and oh yeah the team brought in Davante Adams. 

Carr’s top receivers will now be Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow after last season having to scratch together an offense led by Renfrow and Zay Jones by the end of the season due to Waller's injury situation throughout the year.

The Raiders draw a tough start, going on the road against the Chargers but this game does have one of the higher point totals on the board and how can you hate a QB in this price range that has Davante Adams to throw the football to. 

 

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

Another QB that likely will not be this low again this season is Winston. The Saints offense is reloaded this year with a healthy Michael Thomas, first-round pick Chris Olave and free agent signee Jarvis Landry now in the fold. The Saints also still have one of the best pass catching running backs in football in Alvin Kamara here as well.

We’ve seen the upside Winston has when there is talent around him as he finished as a top five fantasy quarterback a few years back when he was with the Buccaneers after throwing for 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns.

In Week 1, the Saints face off against the Atlanta Falcons and that matchup alone is enough to likely make Winston and his receivers some of the highest rostered players in Week 1.

 

NFL DFS QB Dart Throw

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

There is lot of uncertainty when it comes to Lance but we know he has the elite rushing upside that can help him put forth some big time fantasy totals. It also helps that he has Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to catch the football when he does decide to throw. 

We know that Lance is likely to struggle with accuracy issues this season but he draws a Chicago Bears matchup that should be favorable with the Bears defense not expected to be anything special this season.

There is a lot of potential here, but we also know the floor is very low as well if the wheels end up coming off and he turns into a turnover machine.

 

NFL DFS QB Fades

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

I just don’t see how you can play Aaron Rodgers at his price point when you don’t even know who his receivers are going to be. Allen Lazard is unlikely to suit up and rookie Christian Watson has barely seen the field during the preseason. This leaves the likes of Sammy Watkins, rookie Romeo Doubs and Randall Cobb as the top guys to catch the football in this matchup.

I think the Packers lean heavily on their two-headed rushing attack with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and this will limit the upside Rodgers will have in this matchup, especially at this price.

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