NFL DFS Week 8 Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks
Published: Oct 29, 2023
I'd ask who's ready to build some winning DFS lineups for NFL Week 8, but I already know everyone is ready. Just take a stroll through the Winner's Circle channel in the Fantasy Alarm Discord and you'll see a number of people posting their winning screenshots. And I mean real, solid wins. Real money for real people. Sure, I could try and sell you on how the Playbook's optimal lineups would have won the Milly-Maker, but that's not what we're all about. We're about helping you become a better DFS player so that you can pull down winning weekends in the thousands without handing it all back the following week chasing some pipe-dream. We all have rent, mortgages, bills and other major expenses. Some of you have kids, pets and other responsibilities that cost way more than some of us would even like to admit. Winning at DFS is not like playing the lottery where you pick a bunch of numbers and hope to win. This is work, research, dedication and patience. This is a grind. It can and should be a fun grind, but a grind nonetheless. And after a weekend like we all had last week, it is EXTREMELY important that you keep a level head and maintain your process. If you want to level-up and play in some higher-stakes contests because you've been winning consistently, then great. Go for it. But NEVER play beyond your means, NEVER haphazardly throw money at donkey contests where you're chasing a six or seven-figure pay-out, and ALWAYS maintain your process and budget.
I don't say this to lecture you. I say this to help you; to teach you. I say this to you because I am speaking from experience. Early on in my DFS play, I took down $10K with a mid-level lineup and got all sorts of full of myself. I leveled-up in entry fees and I got cocky, thinking that this game is too easy. I started chasing pipe dreams. I didn't have anyone explaining to me about maintaining the process, being careful with your bankroll, that no one wins that kind of money on a regular basis. I wish I had someone helping me like that back then and having that feeling is why I am so adamant about guiding you through your play. Winning big is an amazing feeling and when you can take a chunk of money out of your DFS account and apply it to your real-life expenses, there is a natural rush of wanting to do it again and again. Yes, winning is a drug. So just understand that it can vanish as quickly as it arrived and being smart with what you do after a big win is just as important – maybe even more important – than how you got there in the first place. So let's keep this momentum going and let's continue to dominate.
With such a successful week, comes a number of new subscribers, so before we dive right into the plays, for those who may be new to the Fantasy Alarm #FAmily, here is a rundown of the NFL DFS content you should be studying while creating your winning DFS lineups. Let's start with our NFL tools. We continue to crunch the numbers and tweak our algorithms so that our daily fantasy football projections are the best in the industry and that, in turn, has improved things like our Lineup Generator/DFS Optimizer, our DFS Compare tool and even our NFL DFS Ownership Projections. Again, all right here on one site for your convenience.
Again, if you are new to the #FAmily, welcome! All the aforementioned tools are, obviously, at your disposal as well, but please allow me to point you towards more of the content and tools we provide to help you crush your DFS contests each week. It also makes for a nice introduction to our DFS team.
QB Coach – Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777)
RB Coach -- Justin Vreeland (@JustinVreeland)
WR Coach -- Colby Conway (@colbyrconway)
TE Coach -- Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco)
D/ST Coach -- Dan Malin (@RealDANlanta)
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Show with me & Jon Impemba, which you can click below and watch as we talk through each position, our favorite plays and even build a lineup on DraftKings. Impemba also does the Value Plays & Contrarian Corner videos so be sure to check that out as well. Also, don't miss out on the complete NFL Weekly Match-Up Report from Britt Flinn (@britt_flinn) and the all-important WR/CB Match-Up Report from JB Barry (@FantasyCoachJB).
If you haven't starting bookmarking everything, do yourself a favor and do it now. Yes, that's a lot of content and sure, it can be overwhelming, but these pieces come out throughout the week, so if you're seeing all of this for the first time, just know that it all starts trickling out on Tuesday so you can attack the info steadily rather than get slammed all at once. I would suggest that you go through the NFL DFS Menu and start bookmarking a lot of these pieces for ease of use in the future.
Once you've got all of that under your belt, it's time to look at the Playbook. It usually arrives in the early afternoon on Saturdays which gives you ample time to read through everything, make your notes and begin working on your lineups. On Sunday morning, we will provide you with Example Lineups for both cash games and GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel, so you have something to compare your own to before finalizing.
Pretty sure that sums up the basics, and as you should know, if you have any questions, we are all available via the Fantasy Alarm Discord Chat, social media and even email, so please do not ever hesitate to ask for help. That's what we are here for.
If you are ready, let's now dive into the Week 8 NFL DFS Playbook!
Oh yeah! One more thing! Don't forget to check out the NFL Week 8 DFS Show with Jon Impemba and Andrew Cooper while you build your winning NFL DFS lineups! Usually it's me & Jon, but life got in the way at the tail-end of the week. Coop does a fantastic job filling in and you all know the man we adoringly call Vanilla Bean brings the heat each and every week!
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Jalen Hurts | PHI @ WAS Sun 1:00 | 8200 | 9200 |
Continue to track any potential news on Hurts' knee, but as it stands for now, we're not going to sweat it since the Eagles left him off the NFL Injury Report. We like investing in the guy who has six rushing (tush-push) touchdowns over his last six games as that raises his floor and makes him viable in all formats. In addition to that, Hurts has had at least one touchdown pass in every game this season and is averaging 260 passing yards per game. The Commanders rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Patrick Mahomes | KC @ DEN Sun 4:25 | 8400 | 9000 |
Just like I said in the DFS Watch List, we're living in Chalk city, baby! You know after last week's performance and the fact that the Chiefs are facing one of the worst defenses in that of the Broncos that mainstream DFS players are going to be locking him down once again. Nothing wrong with it at all, though again, the price tag might be too steep for cash games unless we can identify some strong value plays. But on the whole, there is nothing wrong with using Mahomes. Just keep in mind that if the ground game is humming, Andy Reid will lean on it so the output may not be as explosive as it was this past week against the Chargers. UPDATE: We are going to have to watch the weather now as Adam Schefter just tweeted out that temperatures in Denver will be 29 degrees and lower with a call for 6-14 inches of snow. If Mother Nature doesn't totally crush us, I still like Mahomes in tournaments, but if we're looking at any legitimate precipitation, we may have to move to cash-only. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL @ ARI Sun 4:25 | 8100 | 8800 |
First and foremost, no we are not chasing points from last week. With the way Jackson is capable of playing week in and week out, last week's performance is just scratching the surface. One of the most notable points given about last week's match-up was that the Lions leaned on Cover-2 zone, a defense that struggles against this Air-Raid offense Todd Monken installed. But the Cardinals use press-man coverage, so a lot is going to depend on how the receivers handle the physicality of Arizona's defensive backs. Of course, their secondary ranks 31st in DVOA and the defense doesn't blitz, something that hurt the Lions this past week as well. So if Lamar has the time to throw and his receivers don't struggle getting hit at the line of scrimmage, it's going to be a nightmare for the Cardinals. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU @ CAR Sun 1:00 | 6300 | 7400 |
Funny enough, he's one of my absolute favorite plays this week. There was a time early on this season where I would have avoided this Panthers secondary, but with Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn and Vonn Bell out while Xavier Woods is banged-up and questionable, this secondary is having a very tough time in coverage, especially when their offense continues to struggle and the defense has no time to catch its breath. Stroud has been a fantasy darling, averaging 276.7 passing yards per game with a 9:1 TD:INT and has now had two weeks to prepare for this match-up. While yes, the key to beating the Panthers is to run on them, but the Texans, coming off a bye, are liable to throw everything they have at them for this game. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Dak Prescott | LA @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 6100 | 7300 |
Truth be told, Prescott is here primarily because of his DFS Ownership Projections and his current price tag. If he's going to be that highly-owned and people are using him in cash games, then maybe we keep pace and save some salary. I've also dug in a little deeper into the match-up as a result. You know I don't like going along with the public, but in cash games, I'm willing to eat a little chalk, even if it's not great chalk. But while the Rams aren't allowing a ton of yards through the air, they do still rank 20th in DVOA against the pass and we've watched them struggle when facing a strong defense that forces a lot of three-and-outs. The defense tires and they end up giving up enough points to lose. I also have a sneaking suspicion (as I took the Rams plus the 6.5 points this week) that the Cowboys could be behind in this one in the second half, thus forcing Dak to throw a little more often. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Joe Burrow | CIN @ SF Sun 4:25 | 6000 | 7100 |
I love seeing Swaggy Joe's ownership low. Absolutely love it. By all means, keep underestimating what Burrow, after a bye week, can do to a defense that has had its holes widely exposed by a quarterback like Kirk Cousins. Now I'm not saying the SF defense is a mess, but they are definitely weaker in coverage than they've been in quite some time. Charvarius Ward is having trouble keeping pace with faster receivers and the penalties against him and the rest of the defensive backs have been on the rise as they struggle. With the talent he has in his receiving corps, Burrow should be able to deliver a strong effort in a match-up that many just assume is bad because they haven't dug in deeper in the analysis of the 49ers. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
QB | Derek Carr | NO @ IND Sun 1:00 | 5500 | 6600 |
Back-to-back 300-yard games tells me Carr's shoulder woes are behind him and we're ready to unlock him for this match-up against a Colts secondary that is simply not playing as well as the data is reading. Teams haven't been throwing for huge yardage against them and the Colts have allowed just six passing touchdowns, but they still rank just 16h in DVOA against the pass and they've had their issues, especially against some of the better receivers. I'd say both Chris Olave and Michael Thomas rate as better-than-average, wouldn't you? They are also likely to struggle against all the check-downs to Alvin Kamara, something we've seen Carr do quite a bit lately. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
QB | Matthew Stafford | LA @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 6600 | 6500 |
Yeah, I know….the Dallas defense. It's brutal to face and coming off a bye week, you've got to be concerned. But as I stated up above in the Dak Prescott section, I'm taking the Rams and the points because this just feels like a huge letdown for Dallas, especially with a huge game against the Eagles coming up next week. The Dallas secondary just isn't as strong as it was when Trevon Diggs was playing and when they were finally tested by a worthwhile quarterback and offense, they got smoked by the 49ers. Yes, they had a decent rebound against Justin Herbert, but he still had 227 yards and two scores against them. Stafford has had plenty of experience against top pass-rushes and he can extend plays with his legs when he needs to. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua running around the defensive secondary, Stafford could have himself a surprisingly big game against Big D. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
RB | Christian McCaffrey | CIN @ SF Sun 4:25 | 9200 | 10200 |
I can sit here and quote Bengals defensive numbers like how they rank 27th in DVOA against the run and allow the fourth-most rushing yards pr game, but using McCaffrey all comes down to cost. There are certainly some places where you can find super-cheap value and sneak him into your cash game lineups, but this price tag makes it extremely difficult. Personally, I will earmark him for GPP tournaments in my lineups, but if you can build a high-floor lineup with him in there, by all means. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
RB | Travis Etienne | JAC @ PIT Sun 1:00 | 7200 | 8700 |
Etienne has been absolutely dominant over the last three weeks, racking up 244 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and 10 catches for 100 yards. Dominant. Now he's got a tough test with the Steelers whose defense always seems to play better at home than they do on the road. But they rank 19th in DVOA against the run and allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game. The do a good job against running back pass-plays, but if Trevor Lawrence needs to get rid of the ball when T.J. Watt is about to get him, Etienne will be there for him. Super-pricey on DK, but we can still get him into our FD lineups at a reasonable cost. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | Alvin Kamara | NO @ IND Sun 1:00 | 7300 | 8300 |
Not only is he averaging just over 17 carries per game, he's also averaging just under nine receptions with two games of double-digit targets and catches. Now he's facing a Colts defense that just got shredded on the ground by the Browns and is allowing an average of 118.7 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. Expect another heavy workload in both the rushing and receiving game for him this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | Breece Hall | NYJ @ NYG Sun 1:00 | 5900 | 7200 |
Can I just say that he's on the cover for a reason? OK, fine. I'll delve in deeper. The Jets are coming off the bye week and you know Robert Saleh wants to establish the run and win this battle of New York. Okay…New Jersey. The Giants are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (137.3) and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns already. That's second-most in the NFL. The FanDuel price is pretty much where you would expect it to be, but this price on DraftKings is really tempting. Against the Eagles, he caught five passes, so if the Giants pass-rush is at all effective, we could see some check-downs here to help augment his value. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Drizzle | ||||
RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC @ DEN Sun 4:25 | 6100 | 7400 |
Not gonna lie – last week's rushing output for Pacheco left very little to be desired. Fortunately, Andy Reid likes the kid and has him on the field for passing downs as well which is how Pacheco turned out value for us against the Chargers. This week, our expectations are probably a little higher as we don't expect Denver to compete as much as the Chargers, but then again…who knows? But this match-up is too good to pass up as Denver ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and they're allowing the most rushing yards per game (167.3) and they've allowed eight rushing touchdowns. We locked him in last week and are likely to do the same once we see how chalky he is expected to be. UPDATE: We are going to have to watch the weather now as Adam Schefter just tweeted out that temperatures in Denver will be 29 degrees and lower with a call for 6-14 inches of snow. This could actually boost the value of Pacheco as the ground game will likely take precedent over passing should the weather be this bad. There is also the advantage of being on offense as you know which direction you're headed, the defense is the one that has to react and change direction – something Brian Urlacher used to talk about back when he was playing. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE @ MIA Sun 1:00 | 5400 | 6400 |
This is where the team effort here at Fantasy Alarm is at its finest. I wasn't really on Stevenson at all this week even though the Dolphins allow 112.3 rushing yards per game and have allowed a whopping nine rushing touchdowns. I just kind of assumed he'd be game-flowed out. But I read the RB Coach from Justin Vreeland and he makes a fantastic point that Stevenson has 11 catches for 75 yards on 12 targets over the last two weeks and while Ezekiel Elliott might be poaching some rushing work, Stevenson is the guy on the field catching passes and Miami actually ranks 30th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Thank you, Justin! Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy | ||||
RB | Alexander Mattison | LV @ DET Mon 8:15 | 5600 | 6100 |
The Packers run defense continues to be an issue for them and even though we know Kevin O'Connell is pass-happy, his usage rates of Mattison make him a strong option in this match-up. He didn't see too many carries against a tough Niners defense or during that back-and-forth with the Chiefs, but in games against softer run defenses like the Chargers, Panthers and the Bears, Mattison has not only averaged 18 carries per game, he's been a very active part of the passing game as well – not just check-downs, actual designed screens. No concerns over Cam Akers. This is Mattison's backfield and the Packers are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (143.7), six rushing touchdowns and rank 22nd in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Clear | ||||
WR | Cooper Kupp | LA @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 9000 | 9100 |
I'm not scared off by Kupp's lousy performance last week and I'm not going to get into the whole Kupp vs Nacua debate. Both are incredibly talented, but if I have to pick one or the other and there isn't a significant discount to play Puka, then I'm going to Kupp 99 times out of 100. The Dallas secondary is going to struggle against both and Kupp, if we can afford the salary, is who I want in my lineups. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | A.J. Brown | PHI @ WAS Sun 1:00 | 8000 | 8700 |
Since becoming the squeaky wheel, Brown has amassed five-straight 100-yard games and has three touchdowns over his last four. Now he gets to take on a Washington secondary that ranks 28th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and allow an average of 99.6 receiving yards to them. DFS Ownership projections put him in the top-five of expected rostership, so expect him to be pretty chalky this week, but considering how soft the Commanders secondary is, he should easily be worth the price of admission. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN @ SF Sun 4:25 | 8100 | 8500 |
We just watched Kirk Cousins buck the trend of not being able to play on Monday Night Football as he used Jordan Addison to expose the coverage shortcomings of the 49ers defense. You don't think Joe Burrow can and will do the same thing with Chase? We're talking about a better quarterback and a better wide receiver. Not to mention the fact that the Bengals have stronger pass-catching alternatives which means the coverage is going to have to spread out a little more so they don't get burned by Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. This looks like a fantastic opportunity for us to get some serious points where some people may be looking to avoid. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
WR | Brandon Aiyuk | CIN @ SF Sun 4:25 | 7000 | 7700 |
While the Bengals may rank 11th in DVOA against the pass and fifth against the opposing WR1, the fact remains that, in order to win this game, the 49ers are going to have to throw the ball regardless of whether it's Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold under center. Yes, that comes across as "hey, let's not forget the 49ers in potential garbage time"," but it is what it is. Aiyuk is way too talented to ignore and the 49ers are going to need to do more than hand the ball to a banged-up McCaffrey 30 times a game. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
WR | Jordan Addison | MIN @ GB Sun 1:00 | 5700 | 7300 |
Welcome to today's episode of Point-Chasers, where everyone and their grandmother will be looking at Addison following his seven-catch, 123-yard, two-touchdown breakout game where he almost had a third and possibly fourth. Kirk Cousins was surprisingly on-fire Monday and he only had eyes for Addison. Now the question is – will Jaire Alexander be shadowing him and is Alexander even healthy at this point. We're watching this very closely as we move towards the weekend, along with the DFS Ownership projections to see if the rookie wideout becomes a free square in cash games. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Nico Collins | HOU @ CAR Sun 1:00 | 5500 | 7200 |
As you read above in the Stroud section, this Carolina secondary has been beaten down with so many injuries that opposing quarterbacks are now licking their chops awaiting this match-up. Stroud should be no different and Collins is going to be the primary beneficiary in this match-up. He's got a significant physical advantage over both CJ Henderson and Donte Jackson, not to mention the speed to stretch the field and beat his coverage for long chunk-plays downfield. The DraftKings price might just be too good to pass up so expect to see him in the Playbook and my lineups as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Terry McLaurin | PHI @ WAS Sun 1:00 | 5300 | 7000 |
We obviously expect the Eagles to jump out to enough of a lead that Sam Howell will be slinging the rock early and often. That's the usual M.O. and while the Eagles are only allowing 227.4 passing yards per game, they've allowed 12 touchdowns through the air as the secondary continues to get peppered with injuries. They've gotten some guys back lately which could tighten things up a bit, but they're still allowing an average of 94.5 receiving yards to the opposing No. 1 receiver. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Calvin Ridley | ATL @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 5800 | 6800 |
What I love most about Ridley this week is just how sour everyone is on him. I don't know what people were expecting from him last week with Marshon Lattimore crawling all over him, but Ridley's early-season inconsistency now has everyone off him. That's great for us because getting a talent like him at both a discounted rate and low ownership is what DFS GPP dreams are built on. The Steelers rank 16th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver, they're allowing an average of 89 receiving yards per game to them, the eighth-most passing yards allowed overall and nine touchdowns through the air. I am 100% in for this game. One of the things we talked about all week was how Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars receivers thrive against zone coverage and while the Steelers have played man against 49% of dropbacks, they're dealing with injuries that may push them to more zone in this one. We'll keep Ridley as a GPP-only option for now, but absolutely love him in large-field tournaments. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
WR | Drake London | ATL @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 5100 | 6700 |
While we are all still very angry with Arthur Smith for his bizarro strategies, poor usage rates of Bijan Robinson and his lack of accurate injury reporting, we also have to remember that he is going to be very focused on winning this game as he returns to Tennessee for the first time as an opposing head coach. The Titans are reeling on both sides of the ball and their secondary continues to be a major issue for them. They rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 101.1 receiving yards per game to them. Even Desmond Ridder can't screw this one up for us, can he? Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
WR | Zay Flowers | BAL @ ARI Sun 4:25 | 5600 | 6500 |
The Todd Monken offense was in full-bloom last week and we finally saw Lamar Jackson slinging the rock the way we were promised. Flowers is clearly the No. 1 receiver in this offense, as evidenced by his snap share and target rate, so when we look at Arizona ranking 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and how they allow an average of 100.4 receiving yards per game to them, we can't help but want to get Flowers into our lineups this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Hollywood Brown | KC @ DEN Sun 4:25 | 5200 | 6500 |
While Baltimore ranks 11th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 wideout, they're still allowing an average of nearly 80 receiving yards per game to them. And now we've got a revenge-game narrative for Hollywood in a week where we might even get Kyler Murray back under center? Brown is targeted enough to lock him into cash game lineups this season and this is very likely to be a game where the Cardinals are going to need to throw a ton. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Kendrick Bourne | NE @ MIA Sun 1:00 | 4700 | 6200 |
Well, someone has to catch the passes in New England and we're not going to look anywhere beyond Bourne who has clearly separated himself as the only legitimate game in town. He's seen 18 targets over the last two games and has turned them into 16 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. Miami has too much firepower and while Belichick is a great defensive mind, I still expect the Patriots to be playing from behind. Belichick will look to expose the fact that the Fins rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 100.3 receiving yards per game to them. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy | ||||
WR | Michael Thomas | NO @ IND Sun 1:00 | 4900 | 6000 |
The numbers for Thomas have been ok, but nothing all that special, but the Colts vulnerable secondary ranks 29th in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and he's seeing a steady diet of eight targets per game. I had Chris Olave in the Watch List all week and I wouldn't begrudge using him at all, but Thomas saves you some money and we also don't know how Olave or the team reacts to his arrest on Monday. It's not so much that they bench him or anything, it's just more about the mental distraction, so we'll, ironically, turn to Thomas for some stability. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Tank Dell | HOU @ CAR Sun 1:00 | 4900 | 6000 |
Obviously Nico Collins is my preferred Texans receiver, but Dell is very much in play as a solid pay-down with Robert Woods out for this game. This Carolina secondary has been battered, beaten and bruised so badly that yes, I am thinking Texans stack, as chalky as it may be due to the Stroud-truthers out there. Dell becomes a big part of it while maybe Dalton Schultz becomes the contrarian play. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
TE | Travis Kelce | KC @ DEN Sun 4:25 | 8400 | 9000 |
The Broncos rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and allow the most fantasy points per game to the position. Time is running out before Taylor Swift heads out on the international leg of her Eras Tour, so Kelce has to get in another big game to keep her interested. Yeah, that's my analysis. You wanna make something of it? UPDATE: We are going to have to watch the weather now as Adam Schefter just tweeted out that temperatures in Denver will be 29 degrees and lower with a call for 6-14 inches of snow. Should the weather truly be this bad, we may just have to pivot away due to how expensive Kelce is right now. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
TE | Mark Andrews | BAL @ ARI Sun 4:25 | 6400 | 7700 |
Arizona may not be giving up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end right now, but we cannot ignore the fact that they rank 23rd in DVOA against the position and this Ravens offense finally looks like it's firing on all cylinders. The match-up on paper doesn't look great, so if the cost is too prohibitive, then look at him strictly for GPP tournaments. But also keep in mind that guys like Logan Thomas, Darren Waller and Jake Ferguson have all had strong efforts against Arizona and save for shutting down George Kittle, they really haven't faced a TE of Andrews' caliber. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
TE | Darren Waller | NYJ @ NYG Sun 1:00 | 5200 | 6400 |
Waller found the end zone last week and there is hope on the horizon for him in this match-up against the Jets. While they actually rank eighth in DVOA against the position, they are allowing almost 45 receiving yards per game to them and are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. That means they're giving up some serious touchdowns and that's what you need here. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Drizzle | ||||
TE | George Kittle | CIN @ SF Sun 4:25 | 5400 | 6100 |
The injury to Deebo Samuel has put more targets into Kittle's hands and this is a spectacular week for that to happen. We expect a lot of hype around this potential Super Bowl match-up and that kind of high-profile attention is exactly what Kittle thrives on. It also helps that the Bengals rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If we can't afford Kelce, Kittle could very well be our landing spot if we have the salary available. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU @ CAR Sun 1:00 | 3900 | 5800 |
Completing my run of Texans and obviously making Colby Conway smile like he's the Kool-Aid man, we need to look at Schultz in this match-up now that Jeremy Chinn and Vonn Bell are out while Xavier Woods is banged-up. As the injuries have piled up, the Panthers ranking against the TE has dropped and now sits at 25th overall against the position. Like I said earlier, the Texans stack is going to be chalky this week, so while we're saving some money in a variety of ways, we're going to have to be pretty contrarian with the rest of our plays in that lineup. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
TE | Logan Thomas | CIN @ SF Sun 4:25 | 3400 | 5400 |
Yes, I will continue to bang the Logan Thomas drum because he continues to produce at a top-10 level at the position and he's priced down like he's not. I don't have to go on and on about how Eric Bieniemy likes throwing to the tight end because you've seen it enough no to know that he is a featured pass-catcher, regardless of some random game results. The Eagles rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and are giving up an average of 10.7 fantasy points per game in a PPR format. At this price, that's really all we're looking for, especially in cash games. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
TE | Jake Ferguson | LA @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 3600 | 4900 |
Where's my Jim Bowden when I need him? Oh yeah, out covering the World Series. Don't tell him I'm promoting his Cowboys here, but Ferguson looks like a fantastic pay-down given his usage in this offense. It also helps that the Rams are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, so if you're in need of saving some salary and feel ok about fading Kelce, this could be the play of the week! Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
TE | Trey McBride | BAL @ ARI Sun 4:25 | 2800 | 4700 |
This is more of a volume play than a match-up play as the Ravens rank ninth in DVOA against the tight end and they're allowing the second-fewest fantasy points pr game to the position. But with Zach Ertz on IR, McBride is going to see a major increase in snaps and, potentially, targets. He's seen 11 targets over the past two games and there's a good chance he sees even more if Kyler Murray is under center and looking downfield. It's not my favorite play, but if you're really hard-up for salary, his price is right. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
DST | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI @ WAS Sun 1:00 | 4300 | 5000 |
The Eagles have the third-most sacks and six takeaways this season. Their run defense is going to shut down Brian Robinson which is going to put the Commanders on their heels and force more throws from Sam Howell. With that as a strong possibility, we could see some really nice turnover work. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
DST | Seattle Seahawks | CLE @ SEA Sun 4:05 | 3400 | 4300 |
Seattle's pass-rush is probably their strong suit, followed up by their run defense and then secondary. PJ Walker has had his issues even with a strong offensive line, so if the Seahawks can put enough pressure on him, they should be in line to get some sacks and maybe force some turnovers. I expect the score to stay down in this one. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
DST | New Orleans Saints | NO @ IND Sun 1:00 | 3700 | 4000 |
I just don't have a world of faith in Gardner Minshew. Marshon Lattimore is going to be on Michael Pittman throughout so maybe the safeties can help Alontae Taylor in covering Josh Downs. Just keep an eye on inactives as there's a bug going around the Saints locker room and that could keep a number of starters down. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
DST | Cleveland Browns | CLE @ SEA Sun 4:05 | 3000 | 4100 |
Can't look at the Seahawks and not look at the Browns, can we? Myles Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew and the Browns secondary is extremely strong in coverage. Yes, last week against the Colts got a little aggravating, but they managed a defensive touchdowns, so that and their sack-total gave you more than enough points. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
DST | Atlanta Falcons | ATL @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 2900 | 3400 |
Love the Falcons defense this week now that the Titans are going with a Will Levis/Malik Willis tandem under center. The Tennessee offensive line isn't ripping open holes for Derrick Henry, so if the Falcons defensive line can hold up, you know the secondary can do its job and contain the Titans receivers. The price tag is obviously super-tasty as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain |
Jalen Hurts, QB | ||||
Continue to track any potential news on Hurts' knee, but as it stands for now, we're not going to sweat it since the Eagles left him off the NFL Injury Report. We like investing in the guy who has six rushing (tush-push) touchdowns over his last six games as that raises his floor and makes him viable in all formats. In addition to that, Hurts has had at least one touchdown pass in every game this season and is averaging 260 passing yards per game. The Commanders rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Patrick Mahomes, QB | ||||
Just like I said in the DFS Watch List, we're living in Chalk city, baby! You know after last week's performance and the fact that the Chiefs are facing one of the worst defenses in that of the Broncos that mainstream DFS players are going to be locking him down once again. Nothing wrong with it at all, though again, the price tag might be too steep for cash games unless we can identify some strong value plays. But on the whole, there is nothing wrong with using Mahomes. Just keep in mind that if the ground game is humming, Andy Reid will lean on it so the output may not be as explosive as it was this past week against the Chargers. UPDATE: We are going to have to watch the weather now as Adam Schefter just tweeted out that temperatures in Denver will be 29 degrees and lower with a call for 6-14 inches of snow. If Mother Nature doesn't totally crush us, I still like Mahomes in tournaments, but if we're looking at any legitimate precipitation, we may have to move to cash-only. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Lamar Jackson, QB | ||||
First and foremost, no we are not chasing points from last week. With the way Jackson is capable of playing week in and week out, last week's performance is just scratching the surface. One of the most notable points given about last week's match-up was that the Lions leaned on Cover-2 zone, a defense that struggles against this Air-Raid offense Todd Monken installed. But the Cardinals use press-man coverage, so a lot is going to depend on how the receivers handle the physicality of Arizona's defensive backs. Of course, their secondary ranks 31st in DVOA and the defense doesn't blitz, something that hurt the Lions this past week as well. So if Lamar has the time to throw and his receivers don't struggle getting hit at the line of scrimmage, it's going to be a nightmare for the Cardinals. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
C.J. Stroud, QB | ||||
Funny enough, he's one of my absolute favorite plays this week. There was a time early on this season where I would have avoided this Panthers secondary, but with Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn and Vonn Bell out while Xavier Woods is banged-up and questionable, this secondary is having a very tough time in coverage, especially when their offense continues to struggle and the defense has no time to catch its breath. Stroud has been a fantasy darling, averaging 276.7 passing yards per game with a 9:1 TD:INT and has now had two weeks to prepare for this match-up. While yes, the key to beating the Panthers is to run on them, but the Texans, coming off a bye, are liable to throw everything they have at them for this game. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Dak Prescott, QB | ||||
Truth be told, Prescott is here primarily because of his DFS Ownership Projections and his current price tag. If he's going to be that highly-owned and people are using him in cash games, then maybe we keep pace and save some salary. I've also dug in a little deeper into the match-up as a result. You know I don't like going along with the public, but in cash games, I'm willing to eat a little chalk, even if it's not great chalk. But while the Rams aren't allowing a ton of yards through the air, they do still rank 20th in DVOA against the pass and we've watched them struggle when facing a strong defense that forces a lot of three-and-outs. The defense tires and they end up giving up enough points to lose. I also have a sneaking suspicion (as I took the Rams plus the 6.5 points this week) that the Cowboys could be behind in this one in the second half, thus forcing Dak to throw a little more often. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Joe Burrow, QB | ||||
I love seeing Swaggy Joe's ownership low. Absolutely love it. By all means, keep underestimating what Burrow, after a bye week, can do to a defense that has had its holes widely exposed by a quarterback like Kirk Cousins. Now I'm not saying the SF defense is a mess, but they are definitely weaker in coverage than they've been in quite some time. Charvarius Ward is having trouble keeping pace with faster receivers and the penalties against him and the rest of the defensive backs have been on the rise as they struggle. With the talent he has in his receiving corps, Burrow should be able to deliver a strong effort in a match-up that many just assume is bad because they haven't dug in deeper in the analysis of the 49ers. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Derek Carr, QB | ||||
Back-to-back 300-yard games tells me Carr's shoulder woes are behind him and we're ready to unlock him for this match-up against a Colts secondary that is simply not playing as well as the data is reading. Teams haven't been throwing for huge yardage against them and the Colts have allowed just six passing touchdowns, but they still rank just 16h in DVOA against the pass and they've had their issues, especially against some of the better receivers. I'd say both Chris Olave and Michael Thomas rate as better-than-average, wouldn't you? They are also likely to struggle against all the check-downs to Alvin Kamara, something we've seen Carr do quite a bit lately. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Matthew Stafford, QB | ||||
Yeah, I know….the Dallas defense. It's brutal to face and coming off a bye week, you've got to be concerned. But as I stated up above in the Dak Prescott section, I'm taking the Rams and the points because this just feels like a huge letdown for Dallas, especially with a huge game against the Eagles coming up next week. The Dallas secondary just isn't as strong as it was when Trevon Diggs was playing and when they were finally tested by a worthwhile quarterback and offense, they got smoked by the 49ers. Yes, they had a decent rebound against Justin Herbert, but he still had 227 yards and two scores against them. Stafford has had plenty of experience against top pass-rushes and he can extend plays with his legs when he needs to. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua running around the defensive secondary, Stafford could have himself a surprisingly big game against Big D. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
I can sit here and quote Bengals defensive numbers like how they rank 27th in DVOA against the run and allow the fourth-most rushing yards pr game, but using McCaffrey all comes down to cost. There are certainly some places where you can find super-cheap value and sneak him into your cash game lineups, but this price tag makes it extremely difficult. Personally, I will earmark him for GPP tournaments in my lineups, but if you can build a high-floor lineup with him in there, by all means. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Travis Etienne, RB | ||||
Etienne has been absolutely dominant over the last three weeks, racking up 244 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and 10 catches for 100 yards. Dominant. Now he's got a tough test with the Steelers whose defense always seems to play better at home than they do on the road. But they rank 19th in DVOA against the run and allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game. The do a good job against running back pass-plays, but if Trevor Lawrence needs to get rid of the ball when T.J. Watt is about to get him, Etienne will be there for him. Super-pricey on DK, but we can still get him into our FD lineups at a reasonable cost. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Alvin Kamara, RB | ||||
Not only is he averaging just over 17 carries per game, he's also averaging just under nine receptions with two games of double-digit targets and catches. Now he's facing a Colts defense that just got shredded on the ground by the Browns and is allowing an average of 118.7 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. Expect another heavy workload in both the rushing and receiving game for him this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Breece Hall, RB | ||||
Can I just say that he's on the cover for a reason? OK, fine. I'll delve in deeper. The Jets are coming off the bye week and you know Robert Saleh wants to establish the run and win this battle of New York. Okay…New Jersey. The Giants are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (137.3) and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns already. That's second-most in the NFL. The FanDuel price is pretty much where you would expect it to be, but this price on DraftKings is really tempting. Against the Eagles, he caught five passes, so if the Giants pass-rush is at all effective, we could see some check-downs here to help augment his value. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Drizzle | ||||
Isiah Pacheco, RB | ||||
Not gonna lie – last week's rushing output for Pacheco left very little to be desired. Fortunately, Andy Reid likes the kid and has him on the field for passing downs as well which is how Pacheco turned out value for us against the Chargers. This week, our expectations are probably a little higher as we don't expect Denver to compete as much as the Chargers, but then again…who knows? But this match-up is too good to pass up as Denver ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and they're allowing the most rushing yards per game (167.3) and they've allowed eight rushing touchdowns. We locked him in last week and are likely to do the same once we see how chalky he is expected to be. UPDATE: We are going to have to watch the weather now as Adam Schefter just tweeted out that temperatures in Denver will be 29 degrees and lower with a call for 6-14 inches of snow. This could actually boost the value of Pacheco as the ground game will likely take precedent over passing should the weather be this bad. There is also the advantage of being on offense as you know which direction you're headed, the defense is the one that has to react and change direction – something Brian Urlacher used to talk about back when he was playing. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
This is where the team effort here at Fantasy Alarm is at its finest. I wasn't really on Stevenson at all this week even though the Dolphins allow 112.3 rushing yards per game and have allowed a whopping nine rushing touchdowns. I just kind of assumed he'd be game-flowed out. But I read the RB Coach from Justin Vreeland and he makes a fantastic point that Stevenson has 11 catches for 75 yards on 12 targets over the last two weeks and while Ezekiel Elliott might be poaching some rushing work, Stevenson is the guy on the field catching passes and Miami actually ranks 30th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Thank you, Justin! Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy | ||||
The Packers run defense continues to be an issue for them and even though we know Kevin O'Connell is pass-happy, his usage rates of Mattison make him a strong option in this match-up. He didn't see too many carries against a tough Niners defense or during that back-and-forth with the Chiefs, but in games against softer run defenses like the Chargers, Panthers and the Bears, Mattison has not only averaged 18 carries per game, he's been a very active part of the passing game as well – not just check-downs, actual designed screens. No concerns over Cam Akers. This is Mattison's backfield and the Packers are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (143.7), six rushing touchdowns and rank 22nd in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Clear | ||||
Cooper Kupp, WR | ||||
I'm not scared off by Kupp's lousy performance last week and I'm not going to get into the whole Kupp vs Nacua debate. Both are incredibly talented, but if I have to pick one or the other and there isn't a significant discount to play Puka, then I'm going to Kupp 99 times out of 100. The Dallas secondary is going to struggle against both and Kupp, if we can afford the salary, is who I want in my lineups. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
A.J. Brown, WR | ||||
Since becoming the squeaky wheel, Brown has amassed five-straight 100-yard games and has three touchdowns over his last four. Now he gets to take on a Washington secondary that ranks 28th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and allow an average of 99.6 receiving yards to them. DFS Ownership projections put him in the top-five of expected rostership, so expect him to be pretty chalky this week, but considering how soft the Commanders secondary is, he should easily be worth the price of admission. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Ja'Marr Chase, WR | ||||
We just watched Kirk Cousins buck the trend of not being able to play on Monday Night Football as he used Jordan Addison to expose the coverage shortcomings of the 49ers defense. You don't think Joe Burrow can and will do the same thing with Chase? We're talking about a better quarterback and a better wide receiver. Not to mention the fact that the Bengals have stronger pass-catching alternatives which means the coverage is going to have to spread out a little more so they don't get burned by Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. This looks like a fantastic opportunity for us to get some serious points where some people may be looking to avoid. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Brandon Aiyuk, WR | ||||
While the Bengals may rank 11th in DVOA against the pass and fifth against the opposing WR1, the fact remains that, in order to win this game, the 49ers are going to have to throw the ball regardless of whether it's Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold under center. Yes, that comes across as "hey, let's not forget the 49ers in potential garbage time"," but it is what it is. Aiyuk is way too talented to ignore and the 49ers are going to need to do more than hand the ball to a banged-up McCaffrey 30 times a game. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Jordan Addison, WR | ||||
Welcome to today's episode of Point-Chasers, where everyone and their grandmother will be looking at Addison following his seven-catch, 123-yard, two-touchdown breakout game where he almost had a third and possibly fourth. Kirk Cousins was surprisingly on-fire Monday and he only had eyes for Addison. Now the question is – will Jaire Alexander be shadowing him and is Alexander even healthy at this point. We're watching this very closely as we move towards the weekend, along with the DFS Ownership projections to see if the rookie wideout becomes a free square in cash games. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Nico Collins, WR | ||||
As you read above in the Stroud section, this Carolina secondary has been beaten down with so many injuries that opposing quarterbacks are now licking their chops awaiting this match-up. Stroud should be no different and Collins is going to be the primary beneficiary in this match-up. He's got a significant physical advantage over both CJ Henderson and Donte Jackson, not to mention the speed to stretch the field and beat his coverage for long chunk-plays downfield. The DraftKings price might just be too good to pass up so expect to see him in the Playbook and my lineups as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Terry McLaurin, WR | ||||
We obviously expect the Eagles to jump out to enough of a lead that Sam Howell will be slinging the rock early and often. That's the usual M.O. and while the Eagles are only allowing 227.4 passing yards per game, they've allowed 12 touchdowns through the air as the secondary continues to get peppered with injuries. They've gotten some guys back lately which could tighten things up a bit, but they're still allowing an average of 94.5 receiving yards to the opposing No. 1 receiver. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Calvin Ridley, WR | ||||
What I love most about Ridley this week is just how sour everyone is on him. I don't know what people were expecting from him last week with Marshon Lattimore crawling all over him, but Ridley's early-season inconsistency now has everyone off him. That's great for us because getting a talent like him at both a discounted rate and low ownership is what DFS GPP dreams are built on. The Steelers rank 16th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver, they're allowing an average of 89 receiving yards per game to them, the eighth-most passing yards allowed overall and nine touchdowns through the air. I am 100% in for this game. One of the things we talked about all week was how Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars receivers thrive against zone coverage and while the Steelers have played man against 49% of dropbacks, they're dealing with injuries that may push them to more zone in this one. We'll keep Ridley as a GPP-only option for now, but absolutely love him in large-field tournaments. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
Drake London, WR | ||||
While we are all still very angry with Arthur Smith for his bizarro strategies, poor usage rates of Bijan Robinson and his lack of accurate injury reporting, we also have to remember that he is going to be very focused on winning this game as he returns to Tennessee for the first time as an opposing head coach. The Titans are reeling on both sides of the ball and their secondary continues to be a major issue for them. They rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 101.1 receiving yards per game to them. Even Desmond Ridder can't screw this one up for us, can he? Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
Zay Flowers, WR | ||||
The Todd Monken offense was in full-bloom last week and we finally saw Lamar Jackson slinging the rock the way we were promised. Flowers is clearly the No. 1 receiver in this offense, as evidenced by his snap share and target rate, so when we look at Arizona ranking 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and how they allow an average of 100.4 receiving yards per game to them, we can't help but want to get Flowers into our lineups this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Hollywood Brown, WR | ||||
While Baltimore ranks 11th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 wideout, they're still allowing an average of nearly 80 receiving yards per game to them. And now we've got a revenge-game narrative for Hollywood in a week where we might even get Kyler Murray back under center? Brown is targeted enough to lock him into cash game lineups this season and this is very likely to be a game where the Cardinals are going to need to throw a ton. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Kendrick Bourne, WR | ||||
Well, someone has to catch the passes in New England and we're not going to look anywhere beyond Bourne who has clearly separated himself as the only legitimate game in town. He's seen 18 targets over the last two games and has turned them into 16 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. Miami has too much firepower and while Belichick is a great defensive mind, I still expect the Patriots to be playing from behind. Belichick will look to expose the fact that the Fins rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 100.3 receiving yards per game to them. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy | ||||
Michael Thomas, WR | ||||
The numbers for Thomas have been ok, but nothing all that special, but the Colts vulnerable secondary ranks 29th in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and he's seeing a steady diet of eight targets per game. I had Chris Olave in the Watch List all week and I wouldn't begrudge using him at all, but Thomas saves you some money and we also don't know how Olave or the team reacts to his arrest on Monday. It's not so much that they bench him or anything, it's just more about the mental distraction, so we'll, ironically, turn to Thomas for some stability. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Tank Dell, WR | ||||
Obviously Nico Collins is my preferred Texans receiver, but Dell is very much in play as a solid pay-down with Robert Woods out for this game. This Carolina secondary has been battered, beaten and bruised so badly that yes, I am thinking Texans stack, as chalky as it may be due to the Stroud-truthers out there. Dell becomes a big part of it while maybe Dalton Schultz becomes the contrarian play. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Travis Kelce, TE | ||||
The Broncos rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and allow the most fantasy points per game to the position. Time is running out before Taylor Swift heads out on the international leg of her Eras Tour, so Kelce has to get in another big game to keep her interested. Yeah, that's my analysis. You wanna make something of it? UPDATE: We are going to have to watch the weather now as Adam Schefter just tweeted out that temperatures in Denver will be 29 degrees and lower with a call for 6-14 inches of snow. Should the weather truly be this bad, we may just have to pivot away due to how expensive Kelce is right now. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Mark Andrews, TE | ||||
Arizona may not be giving up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end right now, but we cannot ignore the fact that they rank 23rd in DVOA against the position and this Ravens offense finally looks like it's firing on all cylinders. The match-up on paper doesn't look great, so if the cost is too prohibitive, then look at him strictly for GPP tournaments. But also keep in mind that guys like Logan Thomas, Darren Waller and Jake Ferguson have all had strong efforts against Arizona and save for shutting down George Kittle, they really haven't faced a TE of Andrews' caliber. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Darren Waller, TE | ||||
Waller found the end zone last week and there is hope on the horizon for him in this match-up against the Jets. While they actually rank eighth in DVOA against the position, they are allowing almost 45 receiving yards per game to them and are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. That means they're giving up some serious touchdowns and that's what you need here. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Drizzle | ||||
George Kittle, TE | ||||
The injury to Deebo Samuel has put more targets into Kittle's hands and this is a spectacular week for that to happen. We expect a lot of hype around this potential Super Bowl match-up and that kind of high-profile attention is exactly what Kittle thrives on. It also helps that the Bengals rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If we can't afford Kelce, Kittle could very well be our landing spot if we have the salary available. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Dalton Schultz, TE | ||||
Completing my run of Texans and obviously making Colby Conway smile like he's the Kool-Aid man, we need to look at Schultz in this match-up now that Jeremy Chinn and Vonn Bell are out while Xavier Woods is banged-up. As the injuries have piled up, the Panthers ranking against the TE has dropped and now sits at 25th overall against the position. Like I said earlier, the Texans stack is going to be chalky this week, so while we're saving some money in a variety of ways, we're going to have to be pretty contrarian with the rest of our plays in that lineup. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Logan Thomas, TE | ||||
Yes, I will continue to bang the Logan Thomas drum because he continues to produce at a top-10 level at the position and he's priced down like he's not. I don't have to go on and on about how Eric Bieniemy likes throwing to the tight end because you've seen it enough no to know that he is a featured pass-catcher, regardless of some random game results. The Eagles rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and are giving up an average of 10.7 fantasy points per game in a PPR format. At this price, that's really all we're looking for, especially in cash games. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Jake Ferguson, TE | ||||
Where's my Jim Bowden when I need him? Oh yeah, out covering the World Series. Don't tell him I'm promoting his Cowboys here, but Ferguson looks like a fantastic pay-down given his usage in this offense. It also helps that the Rams are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, so if you're in need of saving some salary and feel ok about fading Kelce, this could be the play of the week! Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Trey McBride, TE | ||||
This is more of a volume play than a match-up play as the Ravens rank ninth in DVOA against the tight end and they're allowing the second-fewest fantasy points pr game to the position. But with Zach Ertz on IR, McBride is going to see a major increase in snaps and, potentially, targets. He's seen 11 targets over the past two games and there's a good chance he sees even more if Kyler Murray is under center and looking downfield. It's not my favorite play, but if you're really hard-up for salary, his price is right. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Philadelphia Eagles, DST | ||||
The Eagles have the third-most sacks and six takeaways this season. Their run defense is going to shut down Brian Robinson which is going to put the Commanders on their heels and force more throws from Sam Howell. With that as a strong possibility, we could see some really nice turnover work. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Seattle Seahawks, DST | ||||
Seattle's pass-rush is probably their strong suit, followed up by their run defense and then secondary. PJ Walker has had his issues even with a strong offensive line, so if the Seahawks can put enough pressure on him, they should be in line to get some sacks and maybe force some turnovers. I expect the score to stay down in this one. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
New Orleans Saints, DST | ||||
I just don't have a world of faith in Gardner Minshew. Marshon Lattimore is going to be on Michael Pittman throughout so maybe the safeties can help Alontae Taylor in covering Josh Downs. Just keep an eye on inactives as there's a bug going around the Saints locker room and that could keep a number of starters down. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Cleveland Browns, DST | ||||
Can't look at the Seahawks and not look at the Browns, can we? Myles Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew and the Browns secondary is extremely strong in coverage. Yes, last week against the Colts got a little aggravating, but they managed a defensive touchdowns, so that and their sack-total gave you more than enough points. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Atlanta Falcons, DST | ||||
Love the Falcons defense this week now that the Titans are going with a Will Levis/Malik Willis tandem under center. The Tennessee offensive line isn't ripping open holes for Derrick Henry, so if the Falcons defensive line can hold up, you know the secondary can do its job and contain the Titans receivers. The price tag is obviously super-tasty as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain |