NFL DFS Week 4 Playbook: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks

From just a numbers and match-up standpoint, Allen is a clear-cut no-brainer for this week. The Bills passing offense is one of the most prolific in the league while the Baltimore defense has allowed the most passing yards per game this season at 353.3, they've coughed up seven touchdowns through the air and they have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. But now we've got some weather concerns in Baltimore where the rain is expected to start in the morning and linger throughout the day and into the night. Winds are supposed to be around 12-14mph with gusts up to 20mph. Not ideal, but I still don't want to panic and throw such a tasty match-up away. Allen can be just as effective with the short-passing work as he can be taking deep shots down the field and with the holes the Bills have on defense, this game is likely to go back and forth. We'll continue to watch the weather, but given the rest of the QB match-ups this week, it's going to be difficult to pay down from here. 

So everything we just said about the weather above in the Josh Allen write-up goes for Jackson and the Ravens, obviously. But this weather might also tip me more towards Jackson because of his rushing totals. Yes, Allen can run too, but Jackson has made it an art form and opposing defenders trying to catch Jackson on a slippery field could end up looking like a Benny Hill chase scene (Google it if you don't know). Bottom line is the Bills defense is dealing with a ton of injuries and, like the Ravens defense, is expected to give up a lot of points so look for both QBs to try and take command of this game. Jackson has put the team on his back before and still has the fifth-most rushing yards in the league. 

He wasn't in the original Watch List, not because I didn't believe in him or want to use him this week, but more because we were trying to look at more bargain-priced QBs for GPP tournaments due to the overwhelming desire to pay up for Allen or Jackson this week. But the weather has changed some things and while there are supposed to be some weather concerns in Philadelphia, they are to a much lesser degree than they are in Baltimore. In fact, the rain is supposed to be heavier in the early morning and then lighten up near game-time. Hurts is playing MVP-caliber football right now and has clicked beautifully with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He is also kicking in the rushing yards and touchdowns as well, averaging 56 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown per game this season. The Jaguars pass-rush will likely force him out of the pocket a little more often which always brings about more rushing totals, but as he surveys the field, he knows his guys can best the coverage they are up against. 

Now that he is off the injury report, I can feel a whole lot better about using Herbert in my lineups again. It's been a rocky start to the season for a team with such high expectations, but let's not focus on last week's drubbing at the hands of the Jaguars. Herbert was not even close to 100-percent, the team lost Joey Bosa on defense and things just routinely spiraled out of control. But this team is too good to spend its time lamenting over last week when you've got a team like the Texans in front of them. Houston isn't giving up a whole lot of passing yards this season, but let's also take a look at who they've faced – Matt Ryan? Justin Fields? Russell Wilson? Yeah that last one seems out of place, but that's more about the coaching than anything else. Herbert and this Chargers offense is looking for a massive rebound and they are going to go into Houston and take back their power this week. I don't think Herbert will need to throw for 300 yards, but he'll have a couple of touchdown passes to throw, that's for sure.

While Goff has systematically lost two of his best pass-catching weapons, we're still confident in him – ok, maybe it's more confidence in the Seattle defensive ineptitude – for cash game purposes this week. IF you want to pay down, that is. Seattle is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, they've allowed opposing QBs to post a 100.6 passer rating which is seventh-best in the league and they have been incredibly vulnerable over the middle of the field. The weapons may not be elite, but with the way Dan Campbell has this team eating kneecaps, Goff should be good to go this week. 

Now we're getting into the deep, dark territory of GPP-only quarterbacks. While we may not love Brissett on his own, in a cheap Browns stack against an Atlanta offense that has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game (271.3), seven touchdowns through the air and second-most fantasy points per game to the QB position, there is definitely some appeal. And while we know Nick Chubb should be unleashed against these Falcons, Brissett is still going to have the freedom to air it out at times as well. We watched him connect with Amari Cooper and David Njoku last week and we should see the Browns continue down this path of a balanced offense despite Brissett's shortcomings as a passer. 

OK, stop laughing. And stop rolling your eyes. Pretty sure we've already established that this is not the greatest of weeks for the QB position, but when the match-ups point us in a direction, we have to explore it. Nothing has really changed over the last few days, save for some weather scares in other games, so for GPP tournaments, this play may be ugly, but it is not bereft of potential fantasy goodness. The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and while they're only allowing an average of 231 passing yards per game, they've allowed seven passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have an impressive 105.9 passer rating against them. Trubisky knows he is under fire right now and Mike Tomlin understands that, despite 15 seasons without a losing record, the seat upon which he sits is getting hotter and hotter with every game that goes by without Kenny Pickett under center. Look for him and Trubisky to assuage the angry mob with a strong effort this week. 

I know we're supposed to take things one week at a time and whatever happened last week doesn't mean it's going to happen again, but it's difficult to pay up at a position that has so wildly disappointed us through the first three weeks of the season. Paying up at running back has been a bad idea thus far, but while we're going to avoid the behemoth price tags of most of the top-priced backs, we're going to take a long look at Barkley in this match-up against Chicago. There is no doubt that Barkley looks great on the field. He's got that explosive burst through the line again and he is finding the holes he needs to have a successful 2022 campaign. The Bears run defense is horrendous, allowing an average of 157 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns on the year, so expecting them to contain Barkley seems like an exercise in futility. His price is climbing, so this might be one of the last remaining chances to get him at an affordable price. 

OK, one more pricey guy, but this is more of a contrarian play for me which is why I have Ekeler listed as a GPP-only play. There are plenty of cheaper cash-game options from which to choose, but in a match-up against the Texans, I am not going to waver on my analysis of the Chargers, even without Rashawn Slater on the offensive line. People probably thought I was out of my mind even thinking about putting Ekeler on the cover of this week's Watch List, but I'm not going to let three games, two of which his quarterback was struggling through fractured rib cartilage, change my opinion of Ekeler's talent and how he fits with Joe Lombardi's offense. The Texans have allowed a league-high 202 rushing yards per game, they've allowed three rushing touchdowns on the year and while they may rank third in DVOA against running back pass plays, they don't have a lot of outside speed on their front-seven which means they can be exposed. And the best part? Everyone is going to be scared to use him. 

Well if we're looking at Trubisky, you can bet your butt we're going to look at Harris as well. Let's not forget that the Jets are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. They're giving up 105.3 rushing yards per game and have allowed three rushing touchdowns this season. Granted, those three scores came from Nick Chubb in one game, but given Harris' usage rate, you know he's going to plow through the line to do a little endzone-dancing for himself. We may not love the Pittsburgh offensive line, but it matches up beautifully against the Jets defensive front.

While it's a shame that D'Andre Swift is going to miss this week, Williams could not be stepping into a better situation than facing a horrible Seahawks defense for his first game as the Lions' No. 1 running back. Seattle ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run, they've allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (157) this season and have allowed four rushing touchdowns through three games. The Lions are looking to rebound from their tough loss to the Vikings and will take their aggression out on Seattle this week. Some contrarian players are going to build some lineups with Craig Reynolds, but I still believe Williams is the guy to use, especially in cash games.

David Montgomery has officially been ruled out for Sunday which means Herbert will be the lead back for the Bears this weekend. Chicago is actually in a great spot this week against the Giants who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season. Given the shortcomings of Justin Fields, the coaching staff's lack of trust in him and the potential for some rain, Herbert should be toting the rock quite often. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this season and with Herbert seeing the majority of carries, the opportunity is a great one. Not to mention how chalky he will be. That's perfect for cash-game play.

While Harris was not in the Watch List this week, I've been talking about this Patriots/Packers game quite a lot. In fact, I wrote it up for betting purposes over on Pickswise because I believe we are in for a massive ground attack from New England – something even resembling what we witnessed last season when Bill Belichick ran the ball all night long against Buffalo and only let Mac Jones throw the ball four times all game. But now Jones is out and Brian Hoyer is in. That only reinforces my belief in a strong rushing attack for the Patriots and while the Packers have only allowed 113.3 rushing yards per game, they rank dead-last in DVOA against the run. Harris should have ample opportunities and put forth a fantastic effort. But, of course, the problem we always have with the Patriots backs is not knowing which one to use. So how about both…? 

Yes, you heard me. Both Patriots backs and if you're playing in GPP tournaments, you can actually get both of them into your lineups and feel good about it. You know one isn't going to get that much more work over the other to the point where you fear a zero, so if you're taking chances in a tourney and run the risk of a zero from some rando, min-priced receiver, then this is actually a better play. Even if Harris gets the touchdown carries, you know Stevenson will accrue points in the passing game. Can he also find his way into the end zone? Of course. Which is why we actually prefer to invest in the Patriots ground game way more than taking a stab at any of their receivers.

While the rest of the world focuses on their darling Lions, we're going to take advantage of everyone's preconceived notions and take a long look at the Seahawks. Earlier in the week, everyone was looking at this game's expected total of 48 and started smashing the over button. But suddenly, the Lions lost D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown and everyone is pivoting off the game? Did they think the Lions were going to score 40 points? Maybe, but while everyone pivots away, we can stay with the Penny against a defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, the sixth-most rushing yards per game and seven…count ‘em…seven rushing touchdowns this season. Even better is that the Lions also rank 22nd in DVOA against running back pass-plays so even if you're concerned about Kenneth Walker, you know Penny is always going to see more opportunities.

At the start of the week, Diggs was easily going to be everyone's top choice at wide receiver. He's been an absolute stud for Josh Allen and the Bills and the Ravens secondary has been absolutely torched through the first three games of the season. They're allowing an average of 353.3 passing yards per game, they've allowed seven touchdowns through the air and they've given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Our DFS Ownership Forecaster still has Diggs as the second-highest owned player on DraftKings and FanDuel, but with more rain moving in, perhaps we even get him at lower ownership rates. That would be nice, wouldn't it?

Justin Herbert is good to go and Keenan Allen is out. Hello, Big Mike. Your table is right this way. Take a little trip back in time when we were talking about the Chargers offensive scheme in the NFL Draft Guide. Remember that? We talked about how Joe Lombardi's system funneled massive targets to the X-receiver? Well, here we are again, only this time our QB's ribs are another week into the healing process and he's not even on the injury report. yes, teams are running on Houston a ton, but then they're also throwing on them consistently. In fact, opposing teams have thrown  to their top receiver an average of 10.7 times per game for an average of 106 yards. If Williams even comes close to that kind of volume, he's going to explode all over the Houston secondary.

If you are looking for a slice of this Chargers passing attack but cannot afford the Mike Williams price tag, then take a look at Palmer who will probably be more featured in cash games than GPP tournaments, strictly due to ownership. When Allen was ruled out, the menacing herd immediately began to scream Palmer and while the play is solid, we ‘re likely to just take the discount and the high ownership. Using Palmer should help us afford the higher-priced guys capable of popping off in our cash lineups and if he eats it, we won’t be losing out. We'll just be in the same boat as every other mindless drone.

I should put a DON'T FORGET tag here as Pittman went from being one of the most coveted wide receivers in season-long fantasy, to the ultimate forgotten man in DFS over just three weeks. The Titans rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's top receiver and are going to struggle massively in coverage against Pittman who is arguably, one of the most talented receivers in the game right now. Tennessee is allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game and have given up the most passing touchdowns in the league. Yes, we will see plenty of Jonathan Taylor, but you can expect Ryan to throw the ball downfield to his top target a bunch in this game.

Surprisingly, Jim Bowden wasn't as rah-rah over the Cowboys as I thought he would be this week. I even tried to incite him a little with my Watch List write-up, but he didn't take the bait, even with our pie bet on the outcome of this Dallas-Washington match-up. But don't let Jim's silence fool you. Lamb is very much in a sweet spot this week against a Commanders defense that has allowed 274 passing yards per game with eight total receiving touchdowns this season. What I love even more than that is the fact that Lamb has taken 54-percent of his snaps out of the slot and that means he'll be matched-up against Benjamin St-Juste, a player we have learned to targets against over these first three weeks of the season. 

While we expect to see Sutton opposite Nate Hobbs most of the time, the Broncos have been moving Sutton side-to-side often enough to not panic over the match-up. According to the data from our friends over at Pro Football Focus, Sutton has lineup up on the left (Hobbs' side) 47-percent of the time. He's been on the right, where Rock Ya-Sin patrols, 39-percent of the time and you know that's a mismatch Russell Wilson will want to exploit as much as possible. Sutton has seen 21 targets over the last two games, so you know the opportunities are there. That he's turned them into 15 catches for 219 yards, should tell you that, not only is he talented and explosive, but he's about to go ham on these Vegas defensive backs once Nathaniel Hackett gets his head out of his ass.

Back-to-back weeks of double-digit targets, 101 receiving yards and a touchdown is going to put Cooper onto everyone's radar this week. He'll probably be a solid cash game play because so many people will want to use him, especially at his DK price, and so if he puts up a stinker, it's not going to ruin your lineups. But who's to say he will, right? This Atlanta defense is pretty weak and once the Browns establish the ground game, the play-action will open up and Brissett and Cooper should return to do what has worked these last two weeks.

This should be quite the interesting match-up as Lockett is not the one who is going to draw the tough coverage. DK Metcalf has been the focal point of Geno Smith's attention, but you can expect the Lions to keep Jeffery Okudah on him as much as possible. Okudah shut down DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin and Justin Jefferson over the first three weeks, so while he's busy doing similar things to Metcalf, Lockett should have ample opportunities against weaker coverage guys. Remember, the Lions have allowed the the seventh-most passing yards per game and they've allowed five passing touchdowns. For a GPP tournament, Lockett should be a solid play this week.

While the rest of the point-chasers and mindless drones turn to Romeo Doubs this week, we are going to happily stay with Lazard who should really step up in this match-up against a very weak Patriots secondary. Jonathan Jones is the lone decent corner on New England and since they don't shadow, you can expect to see him opposite Doubs most of the time. That puts Lazard against either a banged-up Jalen Mills or Myles Bryant which suits you, me and everyone else with the sensibility to use Lazard this week. He's seen touchdowns in his first two games of the season and figures to remain a very high-profile target for Aaron Rodgers.

With no Amon-Ra St. Brown, we can make a very easy pivot to Reynolds this week. The price tag is delicious and the volume should be strong. DJ Chark is much more of a deep threat, so that leaves Reynolds to pick up the slack left behind with St. Brown's absence. Reynolds showed flashes of talent while with the Rams and has simply been stuck behind a more dynamic receiver on the depth chart. For this price and the likelihood that everyone and their grandmother will be on Reynolds this week, he makes for a decent pay-down in cash games.

While everyone else fawns all over Diontae Johnson's targets and George Pickens' one-handed grab, I'll happily use Claypool who should see ample work in this match-up against the Jets. And best of all, he's going to work primarily out of the slot. Once the Steelers' locked-in Z-receiver, Claypool was moved to the slot so Pickens could handle the outside work. The Jets rank 30th in DVOA against the slot and the Steelers are likely to capitalize on that shortcoming. And you have to love this price tag too, amirite?

James is sort of cut from the same cloth as Josh Reynolds in Detroit. It's all about targets and opportunity. Sterling Shepard is out for the season, Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson are out with injuries of their own and everyone seems to hate Kenny Golladay. So where will Daniel Jones throw the ball? Who's the target? It's James, of course. Teams are running all over the Bears this year and that won't stop with Barkley, but once Brian Daboll's offense has a lead and starts to get a little more sure of themselves, you can expect Jones to start throwing the ball with a little more confidence.

Rain or shine, Andrews looks mighty fine….in all of our lineups. There was an interesting, little DFS tweet the other day that basically said the top-50 lineups in the Milly Maker had at least a 76% share of Andrews in each week. Sometimes, even if Captain Obvious is wearing a cape, we need to see statistics like this so we don't forget the obvious. Isn't that what Occam's Razor is all about? The most obvious solution to a problem is the right one? We don't even need to start quoting numbers. We know Andrews will see a heavy target share, plenty of red zone looks and likely be worth every penny we spend up for him. 

The tight end position has been a hot mess this season already and identifying which guy is going to pop off each week has been a daunting task. Maybe it's because tight end scoring is a little more down this year than in previous seasons, but nevertheless, we have to stay with what works and if that means paying out a few extra shekels to use a top guy, we're going to do it. As Andrew Cooper identifies in the TE Coach, Waller leads all tight ends in routes run from a receiving spot and he is not doing a whole lot of blocking on team pass-plays. The Broncos tend to leave linebacker Josey Jewell alone in coverage against the tight end and that's going to blow up in their faces against someone of Waller's caliber.

Similar to Waller, we're looking for tight ends with greater opportunities to catch passes and while we have been disappointed with the overall results for Pitts, we caught a glimpse of what could be last week. He's running plenty of routes, both out of the tight end spot and the receiver positions, so if the Falcons can just build off that momentum from Week 3, then Pitts should be in a good spot this week. The Browns are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, so at a decent price, especially on DK, Pitts plays. 

While the Jets rank 15th in DVOA against the tight end, they do allow the most fantasy points per game to the position and that cannot be stated enough when you're talking about a Pittsburgh offense that really needs to right the ship and prove itself. He'll probably see more targets like Weeks 1 and 2, so consider hm for both cash and GPP tournaments, especially with Kelce and Kittle off the main slate.

Anyone who knows me knows that I am not a Hockenson fan and even though he found the end zone, my use of him is strictly on a week-to-week basis and only in DFS. I'm actually surprised his price tag isn't higher, but I'll happily take a shot here against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. And even better for Hockenson are the injuries to Swift and St. Brown. With both of them off the field, the target share should bump up for the Lions tight end.

Let me be clear – we are NOT chasing points here. Yes, Njoku had a phenomenal game last week and suddenly he's in the crosshairs of every season-long and DFS player who's been struggling with tight ends all year, but we are here chasing targets, as I identified back in the preseason. I have zero faith in guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones or David Bell. I do have faith in Njoku as the No. 2 target on this team. Amari Cooper gets the primary looks, then Njoku and then Kareem Hunt. When your tight end is sitting like that in the targets pecking order, then you take the volume and hope for the best. It took a couple of weeks for things to iron themselves out in Cleveland, but they are on the right path now. 

The Raiders are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and the opposition has thrown to the position an average of 8.3 times for 61.7 yards per game. We know he gets looks both between the 20s and inside the red zone, so perhaps Russell Wilson and the rest of the Broncos offense wakes up. For this price, it's certainly worth a shot in GPP tournaments.

If you're looking to pay up for a defense, then most are turning to the Packers who are, obviously, in a good spot with Brian Hoyer taking over under center for the Patriots. However, you need to be careful. I'm ok with using them in a cash game if the ownership is going to be high and you're just looking to keep the score down, but you need to be careful that the Patriots could be looking at a very heavy run-scheme this weekend to try and limit potential turnovers. I like the match-up, but I'm not really enamored with them as many people might be.

The Cowboys are a defensive force right now and while they only have two takeaways, they have 13 sacks already and will be looking to tear apart this Washington offensive line. Micah Parsons is an absolute beast, so if you're looking to get those sack-points, this is where you sit.

The Eagles pass-rush has been ridiculously strong, generating 12 sacks already, but they have also forced five turnovers. We're all enamored with what the Jaguars offense is doing right now, but let's not forget that they are still very much a work in progress. Trevor Lawrence is still pretty green and so is their offensive line. If the Jags fall behind and go into catch-up mode, the turnover chances for the Eagles will grow.

You can run on the Bears. This much, we know. But do you also know they've posted five takeaways so far this season, have stopped some really strong offenses inside the red and green zones and even have six sacks to their credit. This play is more about saving money than anything else, but we've seen Daniel Jones get careless with the football and he may not be rid of all his bad habits just yet.

Is this our ultimate pay-down this week? Bill Belichick may not have the top-flight personnel he once had, but the mad genius can still disrupt an offense with his hidden pass-rush and coverage schemes. He'll try to take away the top weapons which is why we aren't relying on Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon in this week's Playbook. Ten sacks and four takeaways? In a week like this, we just might be better off not spending anything on a defense.