NFL DFS Week 18 Saturday Playbook: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks

He's the top QB on the slate and the Chiefs need the win to lock down the No. 1 seed and the first-round bye for the AFC playoffs. You can pair him up with Travis Kelce and you can certainly stack him if you like another receiving option, but Mahomes works just as well as a solo play. The Raiders rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and Mahomes has thrown for over 320 yards in three of his last four games with 10 touchdown passes over that span. He is also 430 passing yards away from Peyton Manning's single-season record, so while that may not be the priority, it's still a carrot dangling in front of him should this game get out of hand early.

It's basically a “win and you're in” situation for the Jaguars against the Titans so you know the motivation is there. Yes, the Jaguars could still get into the playoffs even if they lose the game but Doug Pederson isn't going to take any chances there. Lawrence has battled through a toe injury over these last two games which have been less than stellar for the second-year gunslinger, but he faced these same Titans back in Week 14 and he lit them up for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Their defense hasn't gotten any better, so look for another strong effort.

Stidham way exceeded expectations last week, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns, but it shouldn't have come as that great a surprise. He's always had a strong familiarity with Josh McDaniel's system and playbook, dating back to their time together in New England, so leading this offense shouldn't have been that daunting a task. The Raiders aren't in playoff contention anymore, so the pressure is off. He can simply attack the Chiefs pass defense in similar fashion this week and save you a ton of money paying down at the position.

We expect him to be locked into everyone's lineups as Henry's success rate against the Jaguars is pretty darn good. He ripped them for 121 yards and a touchdown back in Week 14 and he totaled 345 yards and five touchdowns in just the two meetings prior. The Jaguars know he's all the Titans really have on offense, so their focus will be on stopping him, but isn't that everyone's game plan against Tennessee anyway? Henry should deliver another strong effort, especially with the extra rest from taking off last week.

Despite missing two practices this week, supposedly for personal reasons and not because of his hip/oblique issues, Jacobs is expected to be on the field and receiving his usual workload. The Raiders chose not to pick up his fifth-year option and with the fact that he is likely to get paid big bucks on the free agent market after potentially winning the rushing title (he's leading as of now), the Raiders may just run him into the ground for one final game and let him walk. He absolutely annihilated the Chiefs when he faced them in Week 5, rushing for 154 yards and a touchdown while hauling in five catches for 39 yards, so there is damage to be done. If you're looking to fade Henry, then Jacobs makes for a solid option if continuing to pay up.

He was downright explosive last week, tearing up the Texans for 108 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, but he also handles back-to-back strong workloads in the two games prior as well. Tennessee's run defense has been surprisingly good this season, but Doug Pederson knows he's going to need to establish a strong ground game to open up the passing for Lawrence. He's probably a bit more of a contrarian play on a two-game slate, but if you are playing multiple lineups, you're going to want to get a piece of him.

It's about time the DFS sites priced-up McKinnon to where he should be, so building your lineups around him will be a little more difficult than usual. He's been an absolute beast over these last five games and it's hard to imagine him not putting up similar stats to what he's done. In addition to the eight touchdowns he's scored, McKinnon has averaged six carries and five catches per game with over 100 all-purpose yards in two of them. In addition to the Raiders ranking 21st in DVOA against the run, they rank 31st against running back pass-plays. With the way Mahomes has leaned on McKinnon, it will be difficult to not use him.

The overall production has not been what we've expected given the workload Pacheco has seen, but when you're looking for a contrarian pay-down at the running back position and Pacheco has averaged 15 carries per game over the last eight games, you know there is opportunity. Couple that with the Raiders mediocre run defense allowing 160.7 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks and you've got a solid pairing at RB if you're paying up for Henry.

More of a dart-throw at the running back position as the Raiders may want to take a longer look at him before heading into the offseason. White has been banged-up throughout the year and we've never really seen him get consistent touches, but should the Chiefs jump out to an early lead and the Raiders want to get a longer look at what they have, we could see White get some extra touches in the second half. Vic Tafur of The Athletic has been one of the few decent NFL beat writers out there, so there is definitely some validity to some of his speculation that White could see “his first serious action of the season.”

How do we not lock Adams into our lineups after watching him and Jarrett Stidham shred the 49ers secondary last week? Not only is he the top wide receiver on the slate, but the Chiefs rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's top wideout, allowing an average of 81.4 receiving yards per game to them. Perhaps the Chiefs move L'Jarius Snead around the field a little more to work over Adams, but there are just some wideout who transcend the match-ups. Lock him in. 

In addition to being the No. 1 target for Trevor Lawrence, Kirk is in a fantastic position working out of the slot against Tennessee. He may not have found the end zone in the last six games, but he's averaged about seven targets per game in that span and he is still seeing consistent red-zone targets. The Titans pass defense continues to be their Achilles heel and they not only rank 18th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 but also 31st against slot receivers. Take all of that and add in that Kirk needs just two catches and 91 yards to reach another million dollars in contract incentives. We expect Lawrence to find him often.

Jones also has some nice contract incentives to achieve, needing just two catches for $250K and 98 receiving yards for another $500K. Jones lines up all over the field so it's difficult to pinpoint one match-up over another, but the Titans pass defense is soft and Jones continues to be a leading target for Lawrence. He's been a little quiet the last two weeks but had 14 catches for 186 yards and four touchdowns in the two games prior so you know the explosiveness is there. The pay-down on Draft Kings is where he looks the most attractive.

The targets haven't been there over the last two weeks, but with a soft Raiders secondary in front of them, Mahomes and JuJu  are likely to rekindle their on-field relationship. We've watched Mahomes spread the ball around before, but he's going to need some reliability throughout the early part of this game. JuJu has been his top-targeted wide receiver, but there is obviously some risk involved here. If you are building multiple lineups, you'll want to make sure you have a piece.

This play is going to come down to whether or not Mecole Hardman returns to action this week. He's been activated from IR and put in limited practices throughout the week, but he is considered a game-time decision. We may want to throw the dart at him if he plays, but if not, Toney is in a great spot working out of the slot in this offense. The Raiders rank dead-last in DVOA against the slot receiver and Toney looked good last week catching four passes for 71 yards.

You can certainly throw a dart at Robert Woods after seeing him targeted nine times last week, but we'd rather throw it at Burks who is a budding WR1 in the NFL and has shown tremendous ability despite battling injuries throughout the season. He did pop up on the injury report with a groin issue after Wednesday's practice, so keep an eye on his status. If he's in, we love the savings. If he's out, you can pivot to Woods.

The last time Kelce faced the Raiders, he was limited to just 25 yards on seven catches. Of course, he also had four touchdowns in that game, so I'd say, you want him in your lineup here. He's topped 100 receiving yards in five of his last nine against the Raiders and is routinely leaned on by Mahomes. While Las Vegas ranks eighth in DVOA against the tight end, they are also allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. The price is steep, but this is Kelce with the No. 1 seed on the line.

Talk about a revelation this season, amirite? Thank you, Andrew Cooper, for helping us all believe in the power of Engram this season. He was pretty quiet last week against the Texans, but saw an average of 11 targets per game over the three prior and amassed a total of 337 receiving yards and two touchdowns in that span, including a 162-yard, two-score game against the Titans in Week 14. We won't get greedy and ask him to repeat those numbers, but we're all pretty psyched to get him into our lineups this week.

In the three games he's played since returning from injury, Waller has seen 13 targets which he's turned into 10 catches for 178 yards and two touchdowns. He and Stidham looked very much on the same page last week and now he'll face a Chiefs defense that ranks 21st in DVOA against the tight end and allows the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

If you're looking for a pay-down dart-throw, then Okonkwo should be able to deliver. He's sharing time with Austin Hooper, but he's also been the more reliable pass-catcher of the two. The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA and allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, so if you're looking for some salary savings, you can either pay down to him at tight end or, even better, use him as a flex option on DK.

As great as Stidham looked last week, we can still expect some growing pains for the Raiders offense with the personnel changes. Not to mention that Stidham also threw two picks last week. Kansas City has 18 takeaways on the season and they have the fourth-highest sack total on the year. They should be able to rattle the young QB this week and hopefully create some turnovers.

Their one mission is to stop Derrick Henry and if they can do that, they will force Joshua Dobbs into some mistakes through the air. They don't have a high sack total on the season, but the defense has really tightened up since getting blown out by the Lions a few weeks ago. They have 25 takeaways on the year and if they can stop Henry and force a few turnovers, they should be in good shape for this game.

Yes, the pass defense is horrible, but they handle the run very well. If they can limit the ground game and Trevor Lawrence is airing it out more and more, mistakes will be made. Maybe not a lot, but some. Lawrence does have two picks over his last two games and going up against Mike Vrabel is never easy, especially in the playoffs. So many people are pulling for the Jags that this would be a contrarian move, but also a potential surprise for everyone.