NFL DFS Week 13 Playbook: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks

If you're looking for a top-tier quarterback looking to exact revenge for a loss in the 2021 SFC Championship game, would you want anyone there other than Mahomes? Probably not. He's first in passing yards and passing touchdowns while also sitting fourth in QB-rating among those with at least 100 passing attempts on the season. He's thrown for at least 300 yards in each of his last six games, including two 400-yard efforts and he has 14 touchdown passes over that span. “Naked” Mahomes is a fantastic play in both cash games and GPP, but if you feel the need to pair him up with someone, it's going to have to be Travis Kelce as even with JuJu back this week, he spreads the ball out a ton. We'll probably build a GPP lineup with a Chiefs stack, but keep in mind that the price is very high and building lineups around him will be difficult.

Three-straight games with fewer than 200 passing yards? What is that? This is not the Hurts who dominated our cash lineups earlier this season. Well, don't worry about that too much here as Hurts could find himself throwing the ball more should the Eagles struggle to stop Derrick Henry. The key for using Hurts is his rushing and after watching him run for 157 yards against Green Bay, we can get excited about his prospects against the Titans. Tennessee has been solid against the run and struggles against the pass, but will likely yield both to Hurts this week. You also have to figure Hurts is going to want to get his guy A.J. Brown some extra work against his former team. There isn't a huge price differential between Hurts and Mahomes, so I will likely lean Mahomes, but $200-300 can be pretty significant depending on how you build your lineup around him.

Make sure you see that Fields, to me, is strictly a GPP tournament play only. There is plenty of risk involved as he is dealing with a shoulder injury and all is takes is for one Packers defensive lineman to get a hold of him and drive him into the ground. I won't take that chance in cash, but perhaps that fear helps keep the ownership down for tournaments. The Bears are going nowhere this season so it does surprise me a little to see them play him, but if they are, it must mean that they have full confidence in his health. We just watched Jalen Hurts tear up the Packers defense, so expect to see a similar plan of attack for Chicago. Even without his top target Darnell Mooney, there are plenty of ways for him to abuse Green Bay's defense in this one.

As great as Mahomes and Hurts are (remember, I am only using Fields in GPP tournaments), Herbert just might be my favorite quarterback to use for cash games. The price-point is a lot friendlier for building quality, high-floor lineups and the match-up against the Raiders is first-rate. When they faced each other back in Week 1, Herbert threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns and we should see him, at the least, repeat those numbers. The Chargers run defense has been a mess, so we expect the Raiders to lead with Josh Jacobs which should then force the Chargers into a much more pass-heavy scheme. We were rock-solid with Herbert as our cash game QB last week and should be fine once again, especially with the Raiders ranking dead-last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game over the last three weeks. 

Last week wasn't exactly a huge week for Burrow, though the Bengals did grab a very important win. This week, Burrow is expecting to see his favorite target Ja'Marr Chase back on the field and this game could/should turn into a shootout at some point, as evidenced by 52.5 over/under. Yes, a potential return of Joe Mixon could put the ball in his hands a little more than what we saw last week with Samaje Perine, but not enough to keep Burrow from posting a strong effort through the air. The Chiefs are allowing 233.5 passing yards per game with a whopping 22 passing touchdowns allowed, but equally important is the fact that opposing quarterbacks are posting thee third-highest passer-rating (99.2) against them. 

Will there be rust? Maybe. But regardless of how you feel about Watson on a personal level, DFS is business and we are in the business of making money. We would be idiots if we didn't explore the possibilities of Watson facing his former team after all the bad blood between him and the organization. Obviously, it helps when Houston is a complete disaster on the field and rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass. I still feel like the Browns have to lean on Nick Chubb and I'll have more on that below, but that should only open things up more in the passing game and Watson should get comfortable shredding the secondary in the second half when there's no pressure or early-game jitters. The price on FanDuel is egregious considering Watson hasn't been on the field since 2020, but the DK price isn't terrible. 

As much as I love Herbert, Burrow and Mahomes, Lawrence could end up as my lock cash-game quarterback. First off, there's the level of popularity. Currently, the NFL DFS Ownership Forecaster has him just outside the top-five quarterbacks rostered, but with the way everyone is talking about him and how this game could become a track-meet, Lawrence is going to get some serious attention. And rightfully so, in my opinion, especially if you're in need of a pay-down at the position without losing too much in production. The Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, they're allowing almost 260 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns through the air this season and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 94.7 passer-rating against them which is the 10th-highest in the league. Vegas has this game as the second-highest expected total at 51.5, so I am going to need to be invested here – both cash and GPP.

I've said it all week long and I stand by the belief that if Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt don't feed the ball to Chubb at least 20 times, they're legitimately the biggest morons on the planet. I get that you have your shiny, new toy in Watson, but the guy hasn't been on the field since 2020, he's in a hostile environment and he's probably going to be a bit of an emotional basket case. I don't care how good he sounds in interviews – once he steps onto the field for the first time, the adrenaline is going to be pumping. The best way to alleviate that is to just have Chubb do all the work. Houston ranks 30th in DVOA against the run. They are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back position, the most rushing yards per game (168.8) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (15). I'd like to think that it's the biggest no-brainer on the slate and, frankly, it is. Let's just hope Stefanski and Van Pelt don't try to get cute.  

He's the No. 1 running back in standard and half-point PPR scoring formats and now he gets to face one of the worst run defenses just one week after posting more than 300 all-purpose yards in an epic performance against the Seahawks. The Chargers are allowing an average of 151.4 rushing yards per game on the season and, over the last three games, that number has jumped to 167.0. The only thing working against us right now is the calf injury that seemed to crop up late last week but that he managed to play through. There were reports that he re-aggravated the injury on that 86-yard overtime touchdown run and he was limited at practice throughout the week, but so far, all signs are pointing towards him being on the field Sunday. It's another late-afternoon game, so when you're building your lineups, have some pivots in mind, including Ameer Abdullah and/or Zamir White.

We just watched the Jets back-ups put up 152 rushing yards on the Bears this past week and they're now allowing an average of 143.9 rushing yards per game with a league-high 19 rushing touchdowns allowed. Now we get to watch Jones, who was completely removed from the injury report, have a crack at them. The reports on Aaron Rodgers have been positive and he is expected to be under center Sunday which only boosts the value of Jones even more. Not only does Rodgers like to keep him incorporated in the passing game, but the defense won't be able to stack the box either, now that the back-up who shall not be named is sitting on the bench again. 

How about pairing up Aaron Jones with Montgomery and just run-game stack this one? The Packers rank dead-last in DVOA against the run and they're allowing an average of 154.8 rushing yards per game with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. And if you take an even closer look, you'll see that Green Bay has actually allowed over 200 rushing yards per game over their last three. He's not sharing the workload with anyone in the backfield and it should be very interesting to see what kind of a game Fields plays this week. It's not that we think Fields won't run it himself, but just how much risk he endures is the question.

Nope. This is not a mistake. In fact, this just might be one of my favorite plays this week. I have Pierce marked as cash-game viable but I get people's fear of using him there. I don't think you need to be but if you are, just use him in GPP tournaments then. The Browns defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and the way you neat them and neutralize their edge-rushers is to run it right up the middle at them. Teams have done just that and Cleveland has allowed 131.5 rushing yards per game with 16 rushing touchdowns on the year. On top of that, the Browns have allowed 154 rushing yards per game over their last three, so clearly, they are not improving. Yes, Pierce has had 16 yards on 15 carries over the last two week, but he won't be held down like that. If he was, do you think, after these past two weeks, Vegas would have his rushing yard prop set at 71.5 yards? Exactly. I can give Vegas a pass on being wrong every now and again, but after these last two weeks, if he was that bad, we would see a number in the 40's. Ownership will be non-existent and that, my friends, is how a GPP tournament is won.

I never like to root for injuries, but if Antonio Gibson sits out this week with his foot injury, I am locking in Robinson as my pay-down at the position for cash games and will love every minute of it. The Giants are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season (138.9), that number has gone up to 143.3 over the last three weeks and they've allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. Robinson continues to develop and should be a featured asset for Washington this week. If Gibson plays, I do still like Robinson as he is the lead back who gets the early-down and goal-line work, but if he's out (along with J.D. McKissic), then the sky is the limit here.

I try to take off my pessimistic Jets fan hat when evaluating players from this team for DFS purposes, so that I give them a fair shake. I like Knight a lot as a player and his 100-yard effort on 17 carries last week were very encouraging. I do have to mention the fact that it came against the Bears and we still have Ty Johnson and, potentially, James Robinson, in the mix this week, but I know that Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur want to see what hey have in Knight for future purposes too. The Vikings defense ranks 16th in DVOA and they have allowed 114.3 rushing yards per game (123.7 over their last three) with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season, so this isn't a terrible match-up either. If he is going to get the rock, then we have another solid pay-down which might free up some more QB, WR and TE value, especially on FanDuel where I like to use a running back in the flex.

If you want to use Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill, by all means, go ahead and do that. When it comes to elite wideouts who transcend match-ups, I believe all of them are in-play. I try to narrow it down for you here in the Playbook and go with both talent, match-up and cost as my reasoning, so if you want to try and build lineups around them, that is your decision and not one I or anyone here at FA would frown upon. But as I'm building my lineups, I am looking for guys in plus-match-ups who I can afford. Adams is the third-most expensive guy on DK and the fourth-highest on FD. That's why he's here. Well, that and the fact that the Chargers have now allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game over the last three weeks and the last time Adams faced them in Week 1, he racked up 141 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches (17 targets). He's now averaged 14 targets per game over his last four and has three 100-yard efforts (over 120 in all of them) and five touchdowns over that span. I would very much like to see one of those games this week and believe we will.

The question we have to ask ourselves is whether or not we are willing to pay this kind of a price for a guy who is just coming back from a hip injury that has had him sidelined for the last four games which also included the Bengals bye week. If we can trust him then, obviously we want to use him in this match-up against the Chiefs. It's supposed to be a major shootout with Burrow vs Mahomes and Chase, Burrow's BFF, gets a matchup against a secondary that ranks 26th against the opposing WR1 and allows an average of 87 receiving yards per game to them. But we do have to keep in mind the extent of the injury and the risk involved. I look at it in the same way I look at using Justin Fields – GPP only. I think a lot of people are going to be afraid to use him which could give him to us at lower ownership than usual. And if you're wondering about pivoting to Tee Higgins for cash games then, the answer is no. If Chase is on the field, that's where Burrow is looking. I won't chance paying up for Higgins unless he is the clear No. 1 which he is not.

People are so funny when they hear analysts discuss the revenge-game narrative. I mentioned this one for Brown and tons of people messaged me about how it was a business decision by both Brown and the team so there was no parting animosity. Yes, thank you for that, but I am very well-aware. Unless we're talking about DeSean Jackson who specifically said years ago that he gets amped up to play a former team, you have to expect that most “revenge-game” talk is tongue-in-cheek. We're having some fun. But, there definitely could be some lingering feelings here as Tennessee was the team to draft Brown and there is always something special about the team that drafted you out of college. I'm not saying Brown is hellbent on showing them up, but considering how well things are going in Philadelphia, maybe Brown does want to show them a little something. Tennessee does rank 17th in DVOA against the pass, 19th against the opposing No. 1 receiver and they've allowed the second-most passing yards per game (266.7) with19 touchdowns through the air this season. That's a lot working in Brown's favor. 

He's averaging almost 10 targets per game over his last five, two 100-yard efforts in his last three and finally got back into the end zone last week. If that doesn't make you want to start him, how about the 51.5 game total for this match-up against the Jaguars? How about the Jaguars being 30th in DVOA against the pass, allowing 248.1 passing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns allowed on the year? All signs point to these teams battling back and forth with each other all game and while the Lions will run hard early on, they're doing it to set up the pass. St. Brown will not disappoint.

While I stand by the fact that Kevin Stafanski would have to be the biggest idiot on the planet if he didn't give Chubb a minimum of 20 carries in this game, I do expect the passing game to open up with Watson on the field. Might take a little time for him and Cooper to get on the same page, especially when Watson is rolling out and extending plays with his legs, but the two should be able to connect this week and start building their on-field rapport. Houston ranks 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1, in case you needed another reason to use Cooper this week.

This one might not even be fair. Allen against this Raiders secondary with Amik Robertson as the slot-corner? Come on. He's had two games to knock the rust off and is ready to springboard back into superstardom. Vegas ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass, they're allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (258.0) and they've allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns on the season (19). Allen should have no trouble beating coverage and dominating in this match-up.

This is your pivot, should you want that slice of the Chargers passing game but can't afford to use Allen. Palmer has averaged just over nine targets per game over the last five and his target share stays up with Mike Williams out. Chargers receivers against the Vegas secondary is a mismatch of epic proportions.

The Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They are giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the fifth most receiving touchdowns on the season. This game is expected to turn into a shootout with its 51.5 over/under. Or how about the fact that he is ready to make everyone forget about the Kirk who only had four catches for 46 yards and welcome back the guy who had nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns the game before? I'll have some stacks going on in this game and for every Detroit stack I build, Kirk should be the guy coming back if I can afford him.

Same as we just saw with Palmer up above. If you cannot afford Christian Kirk, then Jones is your alternative. He's seen 24 targets over the last two games and while he hasn't found the end zone since Week 3, he is going to be cash-game viable as he seems to be another one of those guys the DFS herd can't seem to avoid.

I should probably put a caveat on this play, so please keep in mind that I am most bullish about Aiyuk if Deebo Samuel is out this week. If he is in, I still like Aiyuk, but will probably only make him part of my GPP build. There are just a lot of mouths to feed in San Francisco, so we need some of them to sit or remain limited to get full value for DFS. If Deebo is out, Aiyuk becomes the No. 1 receiver and has plus-match-ups across the board against the Miami secondary. He should see a strong number of targets, especially if the backfield is banged-up as well. The mid-tier pricing certainly helps, so let's see what happens once the final round of injury reports come through. 

The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game this season with the fifth-most receiving touchdowns as well. They are also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, so with Pickens being Kenny Pickett's go-to guy, we have to keep him in mind for a pay-down with true WR1 upside. Now I'm not saying Pickens will have top-5 numbers this week, but at this price, he doesn't need to. We know he's going to see the targets and the red zone work, so that's not a concern at all. Now you've got a great match-up and a heavy target share at a discounted price. Let the lineup building begin.

Whether it's Mike White under center or not, Wilson has certainly shown the world that he is more than capable of being the No. 1 in this Jets passing attack. Last week, with White under center, Wilson saw eight targets which he turned into five catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns. The game before, he had just two grabs for 12 yards, but in the two right before the Jets Week 10 bye, Wilson took 16 targets and turned them into 14 catches for 207 yards. The Vikings pass defense has had its struggles as we watched Mac Jones pick them apart on Thanksgiving. If Wilson is getting the targets, he's going to have himself a day against this secndary. Patrick Peterson is the only cover guy worth his salt and he doesn't move off the left side of the field. Expect Wilson to work from everywhere.

Anyone who knows me, knows that I think Allen Lazard is the better wideout on this team, but he plays a very different role than Watson on this team and Aaron Rodgers' issues with his thumb and ribs are the reason I'm off Lazard (that really hurts to say) and onto Watson. Since these injuries have cropped up, Lazard's role has been cut up a little because Rodgers is struggling with his accuracy. When he was feeding Lazard, he was threading the needle on a number of throws. He can't do that as well anymore, so chucking the ball downfield has suddenly become his bread and butter. That's great news for Watson who has two 100-yard efforts and six touchdowns over his last three games. Romeo Doubs might be back this week, but I'm not sure that has much of an effect here as Watson has earned Rodgers' trust and will continue to see the targets he's getting. 

Keep an eye on the injury report as Slayton, along with a number of other NFL players, is dealing with the ol' “I spent Thanksgiving with friends and family and everyone's kids” illness. No one is saying Covid, but we all know that fiends and family members with kids are like little petri dishes, so it's probably more your run-of-the-mill flu. If Slayton is good to go, I am very interested in using him, especially at this pricing tier. He's the No. 1 in this passing attack and hasn't had fewer than three catches or 58 receiving yards over his last five games. Those numbers aren't exactly eye-popping, but he's got two touchdowns in that span and is facing a Washington secondary that sits in the middle of DVOA against the pass as well as yards and touchdowns allowed. He should have a high enough floor to lock into a cash game lineup.   

LATE ADD – We're going to add another bargain pay-down here in the hops of giving you another option for your cash lineups. The Texans may be terrible and we have a hard time trusting anyone associated with them, especially with Kyle Allen under center, but with Brandin Cooks officially out, Collins steps in as the Texans' No. 1 receiver this week against a struggling Cleveland secondary. Even with Cooks in the lineup last week, Collins saw nine targets, so we can expect some solid volume for him this week once again. The Browns rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 18th against the No. 1 receiver. With Collins' size, he can handle the vertical work inside the back of the end zone and he's got the speed to stretch the field and the defense as well.

The Bengals have decent numbers against tight ends this season, but Kelce is one of those guys who also transcends match-ups. With how trashy the position is, how do you not work your lineups to fit him in? He is routinely amazing and should be once again in this match-up. Last time they faced Kelce, the Bengals allowed him to grab 10 catches on 11 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, we'd like to see him surpass those numbers this week, but would be elated to see those as well.

I actually had someone on the seasonal fantasy side ask me about sitting Andrews this week because of his struggles over his last four games. How about we stop with the silliness and acknowledge the fact that playing through a knee injury was more the culprit than anything else? He is now off the injury report completely and has put in full practices throughout the week. Now you might be fearful of the Broncos defense, but after limiting the opposition to roughly 16 points per game over their first eight, Denver has now allowed more than 20 points in each of their last two. On top of that , we've watched them struggle against tight ends at times. If you can't afford Kelce, ANdrew is very much in-play here.

Interesting week for the 49ers as they are dealing with injuries to the backfield as well as a quad issue for Deebo Samuel and a knee issue for Jimmy Grapes. There seems to be less concern regarding Garoppolo's knee, but it does sound like Deebo could be a true game-time decision. If he is out, Kittle definitely gets a boost. Miami ranks 29th in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. If the ground game isn't humming, we could see a nice lean on Kittle in this one. 

If you listened to the Fantasy Alarm Show on Friday, you heard me discuss the Steelers in our Beat the Book segment. I have a very strong feeling that we are going to see some really good things from Kenny Pickett and the passing attack this week and that includes Freiermuth. The Falcons rank 14th in DVOA against the position but they are also allowing the seventh-most fantasy points and an average of 53 receiving yards per game to tight ends. If you are paying down then you don't need a whole lot to return value so a few catches for 50-odd yards would be fine. Obviously, you want the touchdown to come with it, but we don't want to get too greedy. Or do we…? 

Pretty tough to be eyeballing a guy who didn't see a single target last week, but since we are hearing that John Wolford is expected to start this game, I do feel better about using Higbee in this match-up. Seattle continues to struggle against the tight end, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to them, and with Allen Robinson now joining Cooper Kupp on the injured list, the targets need to land somewhere. If Higbee can land 6-to-8 targets this week, he should pay off this salary.

Quietly, the Giants have become one of the worst defenses in guarding against the tight end position. They rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and they are tied with Seattle for allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game. Thomas is only averaging four targets per game over the last four weeks, but we do like the three red zone targets he's seen in that span. A touchdown would certainly pay off the salary and then literally anything else is gravy. 

His production has slipped a little over the last three games, but only one of those games (Week 9 vs Las Vegas) saw a favorable spot for the tight end. Engram gets Detroit this week in a game labeled as a potential high-scoring affair. With the Lions giving up the third-most fantasy points per game and ranking 23rd in DVOA against the position, we should be able to look at Engram and expect a return to the six-target status he once had. I'm definitely looking at a Jaguars stack this week in GPP tournaments and Engram's price certainly helps.

Home team looking for redemption following a meltdown against the Jaguars last week facing the absolute worst offense in the league? Yes, please. In fact, last week's loss probably made this even more of a must-play as the Ravens will be crazy fired-up for this one. They rank third in takeaways and fourth in sacks while Denver, who is averaging just 14.3 points per game, has given up the fourth-most sacks this season and has 12 giveaways on the year.   

The Rams have the third-most giveaways this season and are packing it in for the year. Their offensive line is a hot mess, they are without their starting quarterback, top two receivers and really have never had a lead running back either. They have also given up the third-most sacks this season. Enter Seattle with the third-most takeaways and 28 sacks on the season and we've got a solid defense to use at a very respectable price.

We are still waiting to hear if Chase Young is going to play this week, but even if he doesn't, we are big fans of using the Commanders in DFS this week. They have 30 sacks on the season with 14 takeaways while the Giants sit with offensive line woes and 11 giveaways on the year. This game does not profile as a high-scoring affair either (40.5 over/under) so we should be able to retain some points on the points-against front.

This is probably the lowest I want to go for a defense this week as the Steelers have the fifth-most takeaways this season and the return of T.J. Watt has transformed this pass-rush to the point where they are finally climbing back up the sacks ladder. The Falcons have the fifth-most giveaways on the season and that number should climb against a very opportunistic Steelers defense.

LATE ADD – The pricing for defenses on FanDuel are making it extremely difficult to build strong cash game lineups, so we're going to add the Lions this week and hope that Dan Campbell has his guys ready to roll against a Jaguars team that has 14 giveaways on the season. I get that the over/under for this game is high and we could see the Jags put up some points, so we're going to have to get our points from them on the sacks and potential turnovers. The Lions blitz the second-most in the league and have 20 sacks to their credit. If Lawrence and the Jags aren't 100-percent on their game, this could work as a pay-down…specifically because you'll be able to get some better players at other positions to help bring your score up.