NFL DFS Week 12 Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks

While some may scoff at Allen's great performance last week because it came against the Jets, you have to give him props. He threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns against the fifth-best pass defense in the league and he looked good while doing it. The switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator should continue to resonate with Allen in a positive manner and this match-up against an Eagles defense that ranks 19th in DVOA against the pass and allows the fifth-most passing yards per game should allow him to continue on tis upward trajectory. The Eagles have also allowed 21 passing touchdowns, which is the third-most in the league. One note – let's keep an eye on the weather in this one. Recent reports indicate some rain. It is expected to be light, but if there is a chance it increases further into the game, we may want to look elsewhere.

Again, we'll monitor the weather here, but should the rain be light, we should be able to lock Hurts in as a cash-game favorite. The rushing yards and the tush-push touchdowns obviously raise the floor significantly, but with the Bills secondary issues, Hurts should be able to sling the rock against them pretty well. The overall numbers against the Bills aren't eye-popping, but they do rank 18th in DVOA against the pass and they've really struggled against opposing No. 1 receivers since Tre'Davious White landed on IR for the season, so look for Hurts to have a high enough floor to lock him in.

While I'm always ready to lock Mahomes in as my cash game quarterback, I think he makes for a better GPP play this week as the majority of people are going to be off him after the Chiefs lost to the Eagles. Most people will just see a mid-level stat line and the loss, but those of us who actually watched the game know that a series of drops by multiple pass-catchers is what truly led to the loss. But that's ok by me that people will be off him because getting Mahomes at low-ownership when he's playing the Raiders is where you want to be for your GPP tournaments. The last time Mahomes faced the Raiders, he played about half the game and threw for 202 yards and a touchdown for a 105.0 passer-rating. In the five games prior, he averaged 328.8 passing yards with a 15:2 TD:INT. After the loss to the Eagles last week, I could easily see Mahomes taking matters into his own hands this week, especially with Maxx Crosby not active for the game. Dude's just gonna sit in the pocket and pick apart the coverage.

We've now seen Murray in two games since his return and while the passing numbers aren't much to look at, the 84 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns let us know that the knee is fine, there are no restrictions and the floor is raised enough to have us interested in all contest formats. That jibes well with the fact that the Rams are allowing the 11th-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. If you're not spending all the way up and don't want to pay all the way down, Murray slots perfectly right in the middle.

Yes, we would obviously like the Week 9 version of Stroud, or even the guy who threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns in the first half of last week, but please do not give us the Week 11 second-half Stroud who couldn't help but throw a handful of picks and little else. It's another home start which is very encouraging and it comes against a Jaguars team that is stout against the run and soft against the pass. The Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game, they've allowed 16 touchdowns through the air and they've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If the Jags can build off last week's momentum, this one could turn into a second-half track meet.

Last week when Dan Malin and I were discussing roster construction and he was sharing some past lineups that hit for him, a key component was when QB Coach and notorious Baker Mayfield hater Jon Impemba starts talking up the Bucs quarterback, we have to pay attention. Well, guess who is in th QB Value Tiers? Yup. 100-percent. We know the Colts are a pass funnel defense and we know the struggles they've had in their secondary, but now add to it the recent release of Shaq Leonard who has been the heart and soul of this defense for years and now this defensive unit is even worse for the wear.

While I've never been a big Minshew guy, this match-up against the Bucs is one that can turn my head a little more than usual. Tampa Bay's secondary has been terrible lately and they are now giving up the second-most passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns through the air on the season. Brock Purdy had a perfect passer-rating against them last week and save for one game where Will Levis tanked, the Bucs have coughed up a ton of yards and touchdowns over the last six weeks. Their run defense remains top-notch, so look for Minshew to take it to the air a lot more often this week.

Allow me to reiterate – he was on the cover of the Watch List for a reason. We love to target against the Texans with our running backs and while James Conner didn't exactly light it up this past week, we know the versatile Jaguars running back is explosive. Houston is only allowing 96.5 rushing yards per game but they've allowed 12 rushing touchdowns on the season and they rank 27th in DVOA against running back pass plays. He hasn't found the end zone since the Jags had their bye week (2 weeks ago), so in the spirit of just having some fun, I'll say – he's due! No, seriously, he is and I expect a very strong performance from him this week.

We'll continue to look for any indication that the Rams will limit his snaps and/or touches, but head coach Sean McVay said he is good to go for this week. Williams spent the last four weeks on IR with a high-ankle sprain but should be getting back to business this week with a soft match-up against Arizona. The Cardinals are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position and have coughed up 15 rushing touchdowns which is second-most in the league. If Williams is on the field with no restrictions, you can feel comfortable locking him into your lineup.

While I don't like this Titans offensive line, I like this Carolina run defense even less. Henry should see heavy volume in this one as Mike Vrabel needs/wants to get back to the basics of what helped this team win in the past. Will Levis has struggled mightily over the last couple of weeks, so in a game we know Vrabel wants, we expect him to lean on his main guy. The Panthers are allowing almost 130 rushing yards per game and have coughed up 16 rushing touchdowns on the season. Maybe I lock Henry into GPP lineups only, but depending on some of my builds, I might trust him in cash too.

We can discuss the fact that Mixon is averaging 18 touches per game over the last four weeks and has found the end zone in each one of those games, but we know the focal point here is on the loss of Joe Burrow and how the Bengals are going to have to lean on Mixon now that Jake Browning is under center. We aren't saying that Browning is bereft of talent, but we do believe the lean on the ground game is going to be necessary as the Bengals battle with the Steelers and try to advance themselves further into the playoff picture. They're 5-5 so they aren't out of it and a strong showing against a Steelers team this week could be a huge step forward for them. Pittsburgh is allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game with six rushing touchdowns allowed, so expect to see a heavy dose of Mixon early on in this one.

While the Bills are allowing just 110.5 rushing yards per game with six rushing touchdowns allowed, the key here is Swift's work in the passing game and the fact that Buffalo ranks 16th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and are allowing nearly 50 receiving yards per game to them. Whether there is rain in the forecast or not, we expect to see a strong lean on Swift who continues to see double-digit carries each week with a handful of targets and receptions. The Eagles offensive line is likely to dominate in this match-up and that will only further our cause.

RE-ADDED: We originally removed White from the Playbook because he showed up on the injury report late on Friday. However, an even more recent report from Adam Schefter said that White was fine and the Bucs were just trying to avoid any incidents with the league regarding injury reporting and that White is “fine,” so we are re-adding him to the player pool. In addition to the Colts allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs and 15 rushing touchdowns this season, they.ve also allowed close to 40 receiving yards per game to running back pass-plays. He's a little on the pricey side, but should provide a strong return value with this match-up.

Some people might be a little nervous that the Steelers have fired Matt Canada and current running backs coach and interim OC is a big fan of Najee Harris, Warren should retain his role as the lead back in this offense. His versatility adds another dimension to the offense and Mike Tomlin gave his stamp of approval for the demotion of Harris anyway. Both could actually eat in this game as the Bengals run defense is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game and ranks 30th in DVOA. I love this price over on DraftKings, so make a note of him as we hunt for pay-downs at the position which seems to be a strong way to go based on past optimal lineups.

Here's another outstanding price for a pay-down running back and with the Patriots still up in the air regarding who will be the starting quarterback, we are expecting a heavy lean on the rushing attack. Stevenson did have a bit of a back issue and left Sunday's game for a bit, but he returned to finish the day with 20 carries and tests have come back negative for him. He's good to go and I love him facing the Giants, a team that is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns. During the NFL DFS Show, Impemba did give me pause with his mention of Ezekiel Elliott being a “Giants-killer” and cited Zeke's red zone touches, but I still think we get strong enough volume here to warrant Stevenson as a solid pay-down. 

Ford may have split carries evenly with Kareem Hunt last week against the Steelers, but he saw three red-zone rushes to Hunt's one and he found the end zone for his third touchdown on the season. We also love the fact that he is active in the passing game. He saw five targets to three for Hunt and while the production through the air was minimal, he still produced a solid floor for his DFS owners. Fo whatever reason, FanDuel still has him priced up as if he's not sharing the backfield, but this price on DK makes him a terrific spend down as his work in the passing game helps keep that floor up n a full-point PPR scoring format.

He's probably been the most consistent producer in this offense not named Mahomes and with the Raiders ranking 21st in DVOA against the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game and 10 rushing touchdowns on the year, Pacheco should be heavily featured in this match-up. Andy Reid has nurtured Pacheco's development since he was drafted in 2022 and that has helped him become the every-down back we know Reid loves to utilize. If I'm going to use Mahomes as my GPP darling this week, I'll likely be using Pacheco in my cash lineups.

Yes, we need to monitor the weather, but, more importantly, we need to forget about how bad last week was for Brown. He is still the No. 1 receiver in this offense and while L'Jarius Snead and the Chiefs worked him over pretty well last week, the Bills just don't have the coverage personnel to do the same without totally selling out. If they do, they'll get torn up by DeVonta Smith which will then cause them to shift their coverage and that will open Brown right back up. The price tag might be a little tough for cash, but this game has the highest implied total on the slate so we're expecting some big things from the marquee talent. 

Fortunately for you, Diggs doesn't drop passes like the receivers from Kansas City which keeps him in a great spot against the Eagles this week. We addressed the softness of the Eagles secondary up above in the Josh Allen section, so no real reason to repeat myself. What I love most is that Joe Brady continues to move Diggs all around the field which prevents teams from being able to zero in on him unless they designate a specific shadow. The Eagles could do that with Darius Slay or James Bradberry but neither of those two are going to be able to hang with Diggs the entire time. So the Bills get to play match-ups and Diggs should thrive against these corners. Again, keep tabs on the weather here.

I'll leave him in for both cash games and GPP tournaments, but with the return of Cooper Kupp, it might be best to limit to GPP lineups. The Arizona secondary ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass and the Rams receiving tandem is going to give them fits all day. The real question to ask ourselves, though, is whether or not Kupp is going to just be a decoy for the most part or if he truly is a full-go. We'll find ways to gain exposure to this passing attack, though. It's just a matter of which lineups fit Puka best.

On paper, the match-up seems to favor Chris Godwin, but we all know that Evans is Baker Mayfield's favorite target. Against this Colts secondary, we're ready to lock Evans into some lineups, for sure. They rank 18th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are giving up an average of 78.5 receiving yards per game to them. Given how Tampa's secondary has struggled recently, we could see a bit of a back-and-forth between these teams. Nothing crazy, but enough to give Evans some added value.

Yes, yes. We all love Tank Dell. No doubt about it. While Nico Collins is technically the WR1 in this offense, Dell is garnering a huge amount of CJ Stroud's attention and with the fact that they move him around the field as often as they do, he is exposing a lot of holes in a lot of secondaries. Again, the Jags are allowing the fourth-most passing yards and the way you have to beat them is through the air. Expect Stroud to do some gunslinging and get Dell into your lineups to reap the benefits. One final add-on: If I am stacking Texans for GPP tournaments, I may actually fade Dell and use the cheaper alternatives in Collins and Robert Woods. Dell will likely still be featured, but he took close to a 25-percent snap reduction last week with the return of Woods and I'm not sure anyone was really paying attention to that. Not that he won't see targets, but if the Texans are affording more opportunities to Collins and Woods in two-receiver sets, that's something to which you should be paying attention.

Pretty much everything I discussed in the Gardner Minshew section and even the Mike Evans section plays here for Pittman. The Colts are coming off the bye and we expect them to take it to the air this week against the Bucs. Tampa's run defense kind of dictates that, but so does their struggling secondary. Pittman should garner plenty of targets and opportunities to score. Oh yeah, and did we notice he was on the cover of this Playbook. You know that's a major indication from me as to who is likely to be locked into all my lineups this week.

This Titans secondary continues to struggle and once they start beating down Carolina with Derrick Henry and , maybe, Tyjae Spears, the Panthers are likely to take it to the air in full-on catch-up mode. The Titans give up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, so you can bank on Thielen to get the bulk of that production.

I probably like him a little more with Jameis Winston under center than Derek Carr, but Olave is the top dog in this passing game and with Michael Thomas landing on IR, the Saints are going to have to lean on him a little more to get the job done. The Falcons do have solid corners in A.J. Terrell and Jeffrey Okudah, but those corners have also been beaten deep on several occasions. If the Falcons can't get it together and produce longer, more sustained drives, the defense is going to tire out quickly and Olave is going to burn them on the outside. And while he isn't specifically listed here in the Playbook, keep a watchful eye on Rashid Shaheed. With Michael Thomas out, he saw a nice increase in both snaps and targets. If you're thinking about stacking Saints in a GPP tournament, he could be the guy to attach to your build.

He's Will Levis' favorite target and rightfully so, as Hopkins has proven to be the most reliable pass-catcher on this team. Once the Titans run all over the Panthers, the passing game will open up more and Hopkins will expose a defense that ranks 26th against the opposing WR1 and allows them an average of just over 70 receiving yards per game. Yes, please!

We are not chasing last week's points here so don't even start with me. In fact, I was the only one who told you all to use Ridley and Trevor Lawrence last week, so take your point-chasing accusations and stuff 'em in a sack. Houston ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass and they give up the eighth-most passing yards per game this season. But where this is most special is that the Texans are sitting in zone coverage almost 83-percent of the time (according to our friends over at PFF) and that is where Ridley thrives the most. You want Christian Kirk against man-coverage and Ridley against zone. Follow that formula and everything else will be cream cheese.

If you caught the NFL DFS Show on Friday, then you know exactly why I am digging on Shakir. If you haven't watched yet, please do, but in the meantime, I'll say this – he fits Joe Brady's system perfectly. There weren't any sweeping changes to the scheme going from Ken Dorsey to Brady, but it was very noticeable that the ONLY receiver who didn't see a change in snaps or target-share was Shakir. Brady loves to use slants and the underneath crossing routes which allow Allen to hit his receivers in stride and allow them to pick up yards after the catch. Shakir's target share may not be different, but the quality of targets is and that was what enabled him to rack up 115 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last game. He's a fantastic pay-down and given the Eagles struggles against slot receivers (they rank 24th in DVOA and allow an average of 66.5 receiving yards to them), we have a great pay-down to fit bigger names into all of our lineups. 

You can all thank Jon Impemba for bringing up Dortch during the DFS show as it forced me to really look at the snaps and targets here with Michael Wilson out. Wilson missed last week and Dortch saw a 75-percent snap share and led the team with eight targets. This match-up against the Rams should keep the door wide open for Dortch to repeat his production and potentially even improve on it. He and Shakir are going to make lineup-building fin this week so keep him on your radar. 

OK, we can leave the Taylor Swuft talk out and just focus on what is happening on the field. Last week, Kelce totaled just 44 receiving yards but he did find his way into the end zone. However, keep in mind that a series of drops throughout this game, a rarity for Kelce, cost him close to 40 extra yards. In his last game against the Raiders, he only played half and was still targeted seven times by Mahomes and the game prior to that, he only had 25 receiving yards, but he also have four touchdowns that game. Yeah, four. The Raiders rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end so expect a very strong performance here. 

Is there any reason not to use McBride? OK, the price on FD is a bummer, but under $5K on DK? Sign me up. The Rams rank 30th in DVOA against the tight end and they allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to them. With the target share McBride sees, we are going to definitely want to stay invested. 

While Travis Kelce only racked up 44 yards this past week against the Eagles, he did find the end zone and he had like three drops that probably cost him another 30-plus yards. Like Andrew Cooper with me and the TE Whisperer moniker, Kincaid is looking to have the baton passed to him by Kelce as the top receiving tight end. And you know what…? He could be in line for it. Th Eagles rank dead last in DVOA against the position and allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to them. With the target share he sees regularly, Kincaid could be in for a huge day.

Very few people will look to use Njoku this week because no one likes his quarterback. I, on the other hand, love the fact that a rookie QB loves to lean on the tight end and we just witnessed it first-hand when DTR targeted him 15 times against the Steelers. The two will continue to work on their on-field rapport and that should set us up to be in a great spot against a Denver team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the position and allows the most fantasy points per game to them.

While yes, I've sworn off the Falcons in the betting market, I have to continue keeping an open mind here in DFS and that means I have to keep tabs on Pitts this week. We've been targeting against Alontae Taylor all season and while that technically should put us on Van Jefferson, Pitts lines up in the slot and out wide for the majority of his snaps while Jonnu Smith lines up as the Falcons tight end. With that being the case, the mismatch against Taylor might be too tough to pass up this week. I can certainly understand your hesitancy to use him in cash games, but this week we may just have to make an exception.

The Colts may rank ninth in DVOA against the tight end, but they're allowing an average of 61 receiving yards per game to the position and double-digit fantasy points per game to them as well. Otton plays roughly 95-percent of the snaps in Tampa's offense and he's seen six red zone targets over the last three games. With Shaq Leonard out of the picture, the middle of the field could be problematic for the Colts and that puts us right onto Otton.

While there wasn't much of anything for Freiermuth last week – just one target all day – things are potentially looking up in the Steel City with the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. We'll see how the offense adjusts and what new OC Eric Faulkner have in mind, but this match-up against the Bengals looks pretty tasty. Cincinnati ranks 28th in DVOA against the tight end, they allow an average of almost 60 receiving yards per game to them and the Bengals are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Nothing would make Steelers fans happier than to be screaming “MUUUUUUUTH!” when he finds the end zone this week.

Myles Garrett is a beast and is already garnering MVP votes for his performance this season. He has helped lead the Browns to 15 takeaways on the season and the eighth-most sacks (33) this season. Facing the Broncos, a team that may be on the rise but still has issues of their own, could be where you want to be if you are paying up for a defense.

With 28 sacks and 19 takeaways, the Steelers defense, even here on the road, looks like it is in a great spot this week facing Jake Browning. The Bengals may lean heavily on Mixon, but they're going to have to pass the ball at some point and this pass-rush is going to make things extremely difficult for him.

The Chiefs rank fifth in the league in sacks (36) and they have 14 takeaways on the season so far. The Raiders will likely try to hit them with a lot of Josh Jacobs, but if Steve Spagnuolo is ready for that, they'll do enough to force Aidan O'Connell to take it to the air. Once that happens, you can expect an opportunistic Chiefs defense will be ready to pounce.

Even though the personnel is less-than-stellar, you have to figure Bill Belichick is going to have his defense ready for Tommy Cutlets. The defensive stats for this unit aren't really worth writing home about, but the Giants are so bad that you have to think the Patriots should score some turnover points in this one, not to mention, keeping the score down.

Why wouldn't we look at an underpriced Eagles defense against Josh Allen who continues to turn the ball over. He's good for an interception or two every week and if there is rain, we could see some sloppiness. Again, as I said last week, we're all just chasing defensive touchdowns each week, so just use a defense that fits your build.