NFL DFS Week 12 Playbook: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks

While it's nice that JuJu Smith-Schuster is making his way back this week, it doesn't matter who his receivers are, Mahomes is going to Mahomes each and every week and we are 100-percent here for that, especially in this match-up against a Rams defense that has turned out to be as much of a disappointment as its offense. The Rams rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed an average of 242.3 passing yards per game over their last three while also giving up 14 passing touchdowns on the year. Add to that how opposing quarterbacks have posted a 96.7 passer rating (sixth-highest) against the Rams and you've got Mahomes locked in as a no-brainer for this week.

Burrow finally broke out of his “Chase-less Coma” last week and tossed four touchdown passes while racking up 355 yards against the Steelers. Now he gets another AFC rival in Tennessee, a team whose secondary has been getting peppered by opposing quarterbacks throughout the year. The Titans will come out hard with Derrick Henry and likely control much of the first half which will put the rest of the game on Burrow's shoulders, especially now that Joe Mixon is out. Yes, Swaggy Joe will have support in Samaje Perine and Chris Evans, but the onus will still fall on him to lead this team on each and every drive. The Titans are allowing 266.3 passing yards per game and have given up 18 touchdowns through the air. Jon Impemba made a nice point about the Titans pass defense over the past few weeks, but I still chalk it up to inferior opponents. Keeping up with Burrow, even without Ja'Marr Chase, is not as easy a task.

We just watched Jimmy Garoppolo pick apart the Arizona secondary without even breaking a sweat, so imagine what Herbert could do to them. He won't have Mike Williams, but he'll still have Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer and even Gerald Everett, so it's weapons galore here. Opposing quarterbacks have a 100.0 passer rating against Arizona (third-highest in the league), a team that has allowed 245.5 passing yards with a league-high 21 passing touchdowns on the season. I'm also over the moon on his Fanduel price tag. 

If the reports are accurate and Murray is under center, he definitely deserves a look for GPP contests. Few people will play him, so we should be good on ownership and his primary weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, is ready to roll this week against a middling Chargers pass defense. While the Chargers are only allowing 220.6 passing yards per game, they have given up 16 touchdowns through the air and opposing quarterbacks have posted a very respectable 94.3 passer rating against them. Add that to Murray's rushing ability and potential to run a touchdown in by himself, this should be a nice play for upside in GPP tournaments.  

How bad are the Raiders? So bad. And while some box score surfers will point to their victory last week over woeful Denver, we know their true colors and will happily target against them in our DFS contests. Smith is a little more than I would like on FanDuel, but we just might be locking him into our Draft Kings lineups this week. The Raiders rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and are allowing 247.6 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns through the air. Even better is the efficiency with which opposing quarterbacks are playing against them, posting a league-high 106.3 passer rating. There is some rain in the forecast, so we'll have to keep tabs on the weather report over the next 36 hours, but I think Geno stays in-play no matter what.

I'm not going to lie – trusting in Carr makes me nervous. It should make you nervous as well considering the number of times he's let us down, but this week, we are going to have to put all (or at least most) of that aside. Carr has averaged 271.3 passing yards and two touchdowns per game over the last three weeks and now gets a Seattle defense that ranks 17th in DVOA against the pass, allows almost 230 passing yards per game, has coughed up 15 touchdowns through the air and is allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 94.0 passer rating against them. There is a call for some rain in the forecast, so keep a watchful eye on that, but even with inclement weather, he should post strong totals. 

Forget about the Saints overall pass defense numbers because they don't tell the recent story of what is happening in New Orleans. First and foremost, their run defense is in shambles so a run-first team like the 49ers should have no issues. But you cannot expect the 49ers to just run the ball every play and while Garoppolo may not be throwing 40 times in a game, he can be incredibly efficient as we witnessed last week against the Cardinals when he threw for four touchdowns and just 228 yards. The run will et up the pass and Garoppolo has weapons everywhere, including a pair of pass-catching running backs who are now facing a team that ranks 21st in DVOA against running back pass plays. Between the dump-offs to his running backs and the receivers facing a depleted and soft secondary, Garoppolo should be able to pay off his salary with ease and provide you with the salary relief you need.

If you're going to pay up to the elite tier for running backs, then I'm locking down Ekeler. Christian McCaffrey shares the workload with Elijah Mitchell and while I'm a big fan of Derrick Henry in this match-up against the Bengals, I like Ekeler more in what should be a potential shootout. His rushing yards have been mediocre, at best, but he's averaging one rushing touchdown per game over his last seven games. In addition to that, he's averaged 10 targets per game over his last five and has turned that into almost six catches per game with two more touchdowns. His floor is crazy-high and these Cardinals have now given up an average of 114.9 rushing yards per game (127.7 over their last three) with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. 

I had added Jacobs to the Watch List on Wednesday and was happy to do so as Seattle's run defense not only ranks poorly in DVOA (17th), but they also give up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (140.9) along with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. Jacobs is already on-pace to crush his career-best numbers and while Davante Adams gets all the accolades, Jacobs is truly the straw that stirs the drink for the Raiders. However, not only are we dealing with some potential weather issues, we are also now dealing with a late-add to the injury report which is never a good thing. It's also a calf injury, so that has us even more cautious. Watch for practice reports Saturday and keep your ear to the ground on Sunday. The Raiders play at 4pm ET so if you are looking to use him, you are going to have to have a solid pivot in your lineups, i.e. Kenneth Walker, Austin Ekeler or even James Conner. The last thing you want to do is lock him into a cash lineup and have him limited.

The more I dug into this game, the more excited I was about this being the game we want to be invested in this week. The 47.5 over/under is the second-highest on the slate and I'm locking down the over unless the weather turns really bad and we are focused solely on the ground attack. Walker has been an absolute beast since taking over the backfield and has two 100-yard efforts in his last four games and has seven touchdowns over his last six. The Raiders rank 22nd in DVOA against the run and allow 122.9 rushing yards per game with 11 rushing touchdowns given up on the season. Given the potential weather and now Jacobs popping up on the injury report, I think we're going to see higher ownership on Walker, but deservedly so as he should smash with the volume he will get. And if you are still looking at Jacobs, obviously, Walker is your late-game pivot which could allow you to get a more high-end receiver in there.

We've been targeting against the Chargers run defense for weeks now and it has proven very successful. Isiah Pacheco just ran for over 100 yards against them last week, they rank 30th in DVOA against the run and have gone from allowing 148.4 rushing yards per game for the season to 173.7 over the last three weeks. Let's hope the Arizona offensive line gets healthy, but we know Conner gets the volume and the red zone touches out of this backfield.

Welcome to the chalk, everyone. Remember, when the field hands you a free square, especially one with such a crazy bargain price like Wilson has on DK, you grab it and don't look back. We talk about good chalk vs bad chalk, but this is most definitely good chalk. First off, Raheem Mostert is doubtful for this week which means Wilson will be the bell-cow. Now take that bell-cow and put him against Houston, a team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and has allowed almost 180 rushing yards per game with 14 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season and you've got an “oh baby” back for your cash-game lineups. You can even slide him into your GPP lineups for salary savings as well.

How about some extra chalk and another free square for your cash lineups? Everyone and their grandmother is in on White this week, especially after the news that Leonard Fournette is considered doubtful and not expected to play this week. The Browns actually rank dead-last in DVOA against the run and everyone knows the best way to neutralize their pass-rush is to run it right up the gut. Tampa Bay will do just that and, not to worry, Tom Brady, who normally hates rookies but was heard praising White just a few weeks ago, will keep him active in the passing game as well, especially if there is some rain in the forecast. Lock him in, folks. Everyone is and, just like Wilson, this should be some good chalk. 

Last week we tried going with Brian Robinson over Gibson and would not be averse to giving him a second go-around here against the Falcons, but we're going to stick with Gibson to protect us from the possibility that Atlanta somehow gets out to a lead and the Commanders are left in a heavier passing scheme than usual. Gibson handles that work and while he's averaged just three targets per game over the last three, we've watched him receive a few more than that per week over the course of the season. It also helps that, in a split-backfield, he is still averaging 12 carries per game over his last five. The Falcons have allowed 161 rushing yards per game over their last three and 123.1 per game on the season. Couple that with them allowing 15 rushing touchdowns on the year, and we've got a solid mid-tier play on FD and a good, alternative pay-down on DK.

LATE ADD – I've gone through the DFS Ownership Forecaster and listened to what many of you have said, so I am adding Hill to the Playbook. You can probably pivot to Jaylen Waddle if you like. But keep in mind, neither receiver was in the Playbook because I do not believe you need to use them in order to finish in the money. First off, the game script points towards more rushing for the Dolphins. Yes, losing Raheem Mostert may alter their game plan, but Mike McDaniel is too smart a coach to not know that, to be the Texans, you just need to successfully run the ball. That's why we're all so into Jeff Wilson today. But because of that, I am not building any cash lineups with Hill or Waddle. If McDaniel goes run heavy, they are too pricey and will hamstring your lineups. If you want to take a shot on them in GPP tournaments, by all means. You shouldn't need me to tell you it's okay to use elite-level talent in a GPP. I can only bring you so far with the Playbook. I get that you want to use him because he is so explosive, but this is where game script and analysis take over for me and my lineups.

Throughout the season, we've discussed how the Seahawks have been strong against the wide receiver position and don't give up much in the way of fantasy points per game to them. However, that has changed over the course of the season and the coverage has gotten softer as the season has progressed. Couple that with Adams locking down three-straight 100-yard games with five touchdowns in that span and you've got the recipe for fantasy deliciousness right here. It's no coincidence that Carr's three-game stretch of strong performances comes right alongside these great games for Adams, so expect the momentum to continue.   

Since his return from suspension, Hopkins has averaged nearly 12 targets per game regardless of who is under center, but it's no secret that he is better with Murray than he was with McCoy or even Trace McSorely. The Chargers pass defense has been middle of the road in coverage and while they rank well in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver, we still have massive confidence in Hopkins' abilities. Working in his favor is the potential return of Marquise Brown. Should Hollywood be on the field, he'll draw some coverage away which will, in the long-run, help Hopkins tremendously.

A little rain? No big deal. A strong ground game and high expectations for Rachaad White? It's only going to help us along the way. With Greg Newsome out for the Browns, Martin Emerson will be tasked with covering Evans, a battle he loses 99 times out of 100. Evans has both a size and sped advantage and serves as one of Brady's go-to- guys, especially for end zone work and long touchdowns down the sidelines. He always seems to go low-owned and that will probably be the case again as he hasn't found the end zone since Week 4. I don't want to throw down the “he's due” analysis here, but, he kinda is…

Look who's back, baby! After a painfully long absence, Allen made his return last week against the Chiefs and immediately saw eight targets which he turned into five catches for 94 yards. This match-up against the Cardinals should allow him to continue this upward trajectory and I'll say this…if the Cardinals think Isaiah Simmons is going to be able to cover Allen in the slot, they are sorely mistaken. The size advantage doesn't mean anything as a savvy veteran like Allen will be able to gain separation and position regularly on the hybrid LB/CB and should put together an absolutely outstanding effort.

If you cannot afford Allen, then Palmer makes for a fantastic pivot with Mike Williams out. Whether it's Trayvon Mullen, Marco Wilson or Antonio Hamilton, it doesn't matter to me. This game has all the earmarks of being a shootout and Palmer has been outstanding when tasked with carrying the load for Williams. If you need additional analysis, read what I wrote about Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. 

The Atlanta secondary is not good and that's actually being nice. They rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and they're giving up an average of 266.3 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns allowed through the air. Teams have been running on them a lot more lately, but it's going to be very difficult for Taylor Heinicke to not chuck the ball downfield when he sees McLaurin in tons of mismatched coverage. He hasn't found the end zone in his last four games but he does have two 100-yard efforts in that span. So long as he's getting the targets, the touchdowns will follow.

While Metcalf has only played the second-most snaps among wide receivers, he is the targets leader and should be treated as the No. 1 receiver on this team. Lockett can be the 1A. The Raiders are allowing an average of 258.6 receiving yards per game and they've allowed 17 passing touchdowns on the season. The Raiders already lost their best cover-corner in Nate Hobbs and this group of Rock Ya-Sin, Amik Robertson and Sidney Jones will not be able to contain Metcalf or much of this Seattle passing attack. The only concern is the weather, so stay on top of reports leading up to this game. It's at 4pm ET but there are plenty of legitimate late-game pivots, so build the lineup with Metcalf and then take a look at some of the other late pivots to work out the rest.

There's really not much else to say as far as analysis goes for Lockett. He's a little more expensive on FanDuel than Metcalf, so you can use him as a play over there if you have the budget, but the preference is still Metcalf. If you can't afford Metcalf without blowing up your lineup on DK, then just pivot to Lockett. Both receivers should be featured.

I thought about the price-pivot and having both Deebo Samuel in here alongside Aiyuk, but with Deebo's hamstring acting up, I think it's just a safer play to lean on Aiyuk. The 49ers could be using a heavy ground attack given how bad the Saints have been against the run over these last few games, but with Marshon Lattimore still questionable and the ineptitude of both Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor in coverage, the confidence level in Aiyuk being able to produce with a high enough floor is still pretty high. You could pivot to Deebo if you're thinking contrarian, but leave that to the GPPs. 

I was all set to omit the Bengals receivers from the Playbook with word that Ja'Marr Chase was going to play, but now that he's been ruled out, we have to come back and explore the Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd side of things. As much as I love Higgins and respect the 13-target game he just enjoyed, I'm still tilting towards Boyd in this match-up. The Titans rank 32nd and 24th against the opposing WR2 and slot receiver respectively and that's exactly where Boyd will be in two and three-receiver sets. He's averaged roughly seven targets per game over these last four and has two touchdowns in that span. With so much focus on Higgins as the team's No. 1, Boyd is going to fly under the radar this week.

If he's healthy, which the latest reports says he is, I'm in. I think. The Chiefs are a heavy favorite (-15.5 points) but the over/under is just 41.5 right now with word that Bryce Perkins is under center for Los Angeles. If you remember what happened in the Chiefs/Jags game a few weeks ago, I told you how the under routinely hits in Chiefs games at Arrowhead during the Andy Reid era and how it's even more prevalent in games where Kansas City is the home favorite by more than 7.5 points. So either this game is Chiefs 31 Rams 10 and JuJu has a solid return or this game is 26-14 and we don't get the fantasy points we want from the home team. We still get a good game from JuJu, so cash games, for sure, but there is risk on the upside for a GPP tournament.

LATE ADD – I had London in the Watch List all week and while he just missed the cur for the first edition of the Playbook, I am bringing him back. First off, the salary is too delicious not use, especially as the No. 1 receiver in this offense. No, the Falcons don't throw the ball a lot, but when they do, London is the guys seeing the targets. Washington is allowing an average of 76.7 receiving yards per game to the opposing WR1 and while the coverage match-up looks better for the Falcons secondary receivers, you have to go with the guy who has the most talent on the field.  

So in two games back from injured reserve, Burks has taken his 14 targets and turned them into 10 catches for 135 yards. He hasn't found the end zone yet, but with the Tennessee ground game killing it, things could open up nicely for Burks, especially if Burrow is slinging the rock well and the Bengals jump out to any sot of a lead. The Cincinnati secondary has had its fair share of injuries, so they've struggled plenty in coverage. If Burks can take advantage, he could provide you with strong totals at a nice, bargain price.

First and foremost, if you're sitting here wondering why Hinton is in the Playbook and not just relegated to Dart Board material, it means you either didn't listen to the NFL Week 12 DFS Podcast or you think Jon Impemba is taking crazy pills. But there's a reason Jon is as respected as he is both here at Fantasy Alarm and throughout the industry, and his ability to dig up these Impemba Specials has a pretty sweet track record. The long of the short of it is that Hinton really doesn't need to do much to reach value. With both Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler out over these last two games, Hinton has played well over 90-percent of the snaps and has turned his eight targets into seven catches for 119 yards. We'd like to see him find the end zone, but even if he doesn't, for this price, especially on DK, he should return value. Yes, I still believe these Broncos are trash and trusting their offense is next to impossible, but with how we are going to use him in our lineups, this play just might work! Let's get it, JI. You've convinced me.

There is really no analysis needed for Kelce because it doesn't matter what the defense looks like or who the match-up is against. He is Mahomes' No. 1 target and should be locked into all of your lineups. Too difficult because of the price tag? Well, we've fixed that for you with regard to cash-game lineup construction. Lock Kelce in as your tight end and then use another tight end in your flex. There are a couple of tight ends we trust and their price tags are going to give you the salary relief you need. OK, there is one in particular in Gerald Everett. I was going to save it for the Example Lineups, but why bother? Let's get started right now. By locking Kelce in and using Everett, the TE facing the absolute worst team in guarding the TE, you're basically adding a second high end WR to your cash-game build while maintaining a high floor at the “tight end” position. Try building a few lineups like this and see what you think. I'm pretty happy with the ones I've built.

If you're not going to lock Kelce into all of your lineups, then Andrews obviously makes the most sense as the pivot. He's another week healthier and while he and Lamar Jackson haven't been the Mahomes/Kelce comp over the last few weeks, they're about to be again. The Jaguars rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they're allowing 51.7 receiving yards per game to them. Along with a ton of touchdown catches too!

Well, I've already ruined the big lineup surprise of the week by revealing the Week 12 cheat code, but let's get everyone in on it and get an early start on our lineup builds. Arizona has been decimated by tight ends all season long, most recently, by George Kittle, and the list grows on and on. Hell, the Cardinals are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end and they rank 31st in DVOA against the position. Justin Herbert sure could use his ol' red zone target buddy back and now gets him for sure as Everett was removed from the injury report altogether. If you can't/won't pay for the big boys, Everett is definitely my third choice for this week. But again, I like him in the flex alongside Kelce this week.

The lean for this passing attack is on the receivers as we've seen Davante Adams and Mack Hollins dominate the targets, but even though Moreau has only seen seven targets over the last two games, we'd be foolish not to explore his usage against a team that ranks 29th in DVOA and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. His lack of targets and catches has him as a GPP-only for me, but he also makes for a strong stack option if Jacobs is out and you want to save a little salary because you're using Adams. 

Fant has gradually taken over the tight end snap lead over the past two weeks and runs the most routes of any Seahawks tight end. He has also seen 10 targets over the last two weeks to just six for Wil Dissly and five for Colby Parkinson. Las Vegas allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and they rank 21st in DVOA against the position. If you're looking to stack this game and are having trouble fitting in some of the higher salaries, give Fant a look as a budget guy. Tough to predict a touchdowns, but he got a red zone look last week and might be in line for more this week.    

Welp, the Cardinals are going to have to try and fight back somehow, so maybe this is the game we all want/need from McBride, The Chargers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points peer game to the tight end and they rank 24th in DVOA against the position. Derwin James is always tough to deal with, but the numbers don't lie. He is not the be-all, end-all who body-slammed Travis Kelce earlier this season. He is just as susceptible to being beaten in coverage as anyone else.

If you can afford the salary, then this seems like a relative no-brainer. The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest points on the season (173), they have the fourth-most sacks this season (32), and the Saints are tied for the most giveaways this season. New Orleans offensive line is banged up and Andy Dalton still has a 2:1 TD:INT rate for the season. They should have no trouble paying off this salary.

I am absolutely perplexed as to the price disparity between the two DFS sites. The Chiefs are the second-most expensive defense on FanDuel, but they are one of the cheapest on DK. Obviously, FD got the memo that Matthew Stafford was back in concussion protocol but the news never hit the DK guys. That's ok. We'll happily take this discount. The Rams offensive line is still struggling, their ground game is weak and Bryce Perkins is not a very good quarterback. We'll lock the Chiefs in to our DK lineups, but may need to pay down on FD. 

There are some who believe the Jags could upset the Ravens this week and while I won't thumb my nose at a +160 money line for Jacksonville, I do think this Ravens defense is fierce enough to win this game on their own. The Ravens, who only recently added a major component in Roquan Smith just a couple of weeks ago, have the fifth-most sacks this season and the third-most takeaways. As much as I love the feelgood story that is Jacksonville, they have the fifth-most giveaways on the season and can be prone to mistakes. 

You want to know how good the Denver defense is? If the Broncos scored 18 points per game this season they would be 9-1 on the year. Let that sink in for a moment. The problem with Denver is not their defense. It is that crap-swallowing offense and horrendous play-calling that is holding them back. Defensively, they are sound. They are right in the middle of the league with 26 sacks, they have 10 takeaways on the year and have allowed the fewest points in the league. Given that Carolina is starting Sam Darnold, we expect this defense to thrive this week. 

That's right! You guessed it! If you aren't paying up for Denver, then you can feel good about using the Panthers. Did you not just read what I said about their offense? Just go up and re-read. I'll wait. You good? Yeah, me too. The Broncos putrid offense has 10 giveaways as well and while Carolina hasn't been very opportunistic with the turnovers, we expect them to shine against this B-league offense. With 22 sacks on the year and with the number of sacks Russell Wilson takes, the Panthers D/ST should earn value this week.