NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Playbook Week 16: Top DraftKings and Top FanDuel Picks

It's a three game slate so rostership is going to be high on the core QB's. The matchup between the Dolphins and Packers has the highest game total on the board and it's moving up, opening at 46 and all the way up to 49. The Packers pass defense actually ranks 8th in DVOA but they haven't faced many teams that boast the talents of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. 

Brady has been much better at home than on the road this season but this is a matchup that I am willing to risk the trend with the Cardinals defense ranking 20th in DVOA against the pass and the fact that Arizona is forced to start Trace McSorley this week could lead to Tampa's defense forcing turnovers and quick possessions and therefore putting the ball back in Brady's hands. On a smaller slate you also don't need TB12 to put up a ceiling performance. Over the last five games he has at least two touchdowns in four of those games with at least 17 FP in those four games. That could be enough to get you in the money on this slate.

The Packers elite rushing attack has certainly limited the upside for Rodgers here this season but given the high game total and the fact that the Dolphins pass defense is not that good I do think we could get somewhere in the range of 250 yards and two touchdowns out of Rodgers on this slate. Playing in the warm Miami weather is also an added bonus. 

Dolphins run defense is solid but they have also allowed the 7th most receptions to the running back position this season and the most receiving TD's to the running back position this season. Jones dual threat ability makes him a big part of the Packers offense though the recent red zone work from AJ Dillon has certainly been frustrating for his fantasy managers. 

This was shaping up to be a green light matchup for Mostert with the Packers run defense ranking dead last in DVOA but then  Jeff Wilson Jr. started logging limited practices and could suit up on Sunday. The time share concerns are real as we saw Wilson take over the lead job before getting injured. I still think Mostert is worth the look because Wilson may be limited OR after last week it's possible that Mostert won back his full-time job but  on FanDuel he is not cheap.

You can hate on Leonard Fournette all you want but at the end of the day the guy is going to have double-digit fantasy points and when in the red zone he will get the opportunities to score touchdowns.  Sure, he hasn't looked as good this year as in year's past but the Buccaneers offensive line is in shambles.  On DraftKings we like Lenny because of his pass game involvement.  

While Jones tends to dominate the touches it has been Dillon scoring the touchdowns. He rushed for two scores last week against the Rams and has four touchdowns over the past three weeks.  He also catches passes, with three catches in each of the last three games. If he doesn't score the floor can be low but we've seen Dillon put some big performances up late in season because defenses are just too beat up.

So, interesting wrinkle here is the fact that Chase Edmonds has been activated from the IR. In my opinion Edmonds is only there to fill the third back role and the lead touches will still go to Murray who is coming off his best game of the season which saw him torch the Cardinals last week. The matchup here is tougher on paper but we did see the Packers have little issues running the football last week against the Rams.

If you are down on Fournette then White is a decent mid-tier play. He very much has a role and it's a role similar to that of Fournette in the sense that he will get some carries as well as some work in the passing game. 

The lead back for the Rams. Akers has double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues in three straight weeks. Running against the Broncos is usually not the best plan of action but at least there won't be any real competition for his touches.

Hill has found the end zone in five of the last six games. He has double-digit targets in three straight. We are looking at the highest game total on the board and while the Packers have a decent pass defense there haven't been many teams that can keep Hill contained.

While Hill is the clear top dog in Miami it's no shade being thrown at Waddle who has 62 catches for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns this season himself. With the defensive focus worrying about Hill beating them downfield we've seen Waddle make a living in the middle of the defense and making plays after the catch.

Godwin has been the Buccaneers best receiver this season when healthy. He was forced to miss a few games earlier in the year due to a hamstring issue but through 12 games he has 81 catches for 785 yards and three touchdowns. He leads the team in targets still despite the fact he has missed time.

Right behind Godwin with a bit more boom-or-bust potential is Mike Evans. We are use to seeing Brady and Evans hook up on touchdowns but this season there have been some dropped opportunities and penalties that have called back the scores. That being said, Evans still gets a good amount of targets and Brady is not shy about taking shots down field to Evans.

Speaking of shots down field. Watson is a problem for most defenses because of his size and elite speed. He still has some rookie mistakes as evidenced by last week's blown play where he likely would have scored a touchdown had he run the correct route. Given the high game total and close spread here it feels likely that Rodgers gives Watson his opportunities to put up points.

Courtland Sutton is expected back but so is Russell Wilson. Jeudy could have his work cut out for him should he draw Jalen Ramsey but he has really been on a heater of late as the Broncos top receiver.

12 targets last week and had a bit of a fluke touchdown but the targets are nice and should be there once again with Julio Jones unlikely to play. Brady is throwing the ball nearly 50 times a game so plenty of opportunities. 

No Ben Skowronek for the Rams which makes their already weak WR room even weaker. Van Jefferson only had two targets last week and he will have a really tough matchup but Baker has to throw to somebody. 

With the lack of option for the Rams we maybe see Tyler Higbee featured more in this passing game. Right now he does tend to block a lot but with five targets last week and a touchdown the Rams may look to use Higbee much in the way he was during the middle of the year when he was a fantasy relevant tight end.

Tight end position sucks so we just want someone that is out there running routes and that is what we have here with Dulcich. He plays a lot of snaps and runs a lot of routes which means he has opportunities to get targets and make plays.

Pick your poison. We all want Cade Otton to just be the guy and for Cameron Brate to go away but instead they both split time. This is the best matchup for tight ends in fantasy. Brady does look to his tight ends and Otton has had some big games this season.

Brate had five targets last week. When in the red zone he is always a possible target for Brady. This is the best matchup for tight ends this season.

Baker Mayfield is a trash QB. The Broncos defense is still pretty good both in the secondary and with their pass rush. You can count on at least one turnover from Mayfield and likely a few sacks.

Chalk defense right here. Even with Tampa's defense not putting up a ton of fantasy points of late the fact that Trace McSorely is the QB they are up against here will lead towards higher rostership.

Russell Wilson coming back from injury. The Rams defense can still get after the QB and cause turnovers. They have the benefit of being at home as well.