The first two weeks have gone great for the survivor picks, with all six selections winning. It will get difficult as the weeks go on, but avoiding the land mines early are important. There is only team favored by double-digits. The Broncos are at home favored by 10.5 points over the Jets. Four teams are favored by at least seven points.
Here are my top survivor picks for the week.
- Denver Broncos: The Broncos are the biggest favorite in Week 3 and will likely be a popular pick. They opened the season with road wins against the Giants and Jaguars. The Broncos always play well at home in September and have an excellent defense. Denver is 80-31-2 all-time at home in September. The Broncos are 18-3 in their last 21 home openers. The Jets have lost their first two games against the Panthers and Patriots. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson struggled last week against the Patriots, throwing four interceptions and was sacked four times in a 25-6 loss. The Broncos held Trevor Lawrence to 118 passing yards and intercepted him twice last week.
- Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens tend to beat up on bad teams. The Ravens opened the season with an overtime loss to the Raiders on the road and then came from behind to defeat the Chiefs, 36-35, on Sunday night in an emotional win. The Lions defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Lions have been competitive, but they want to run the ball and that's the strength of the Ravens defense. The Ravens have scored 63 points in the first two games and is averaging 443.5 yards per game. The Lions are allowing 38 points per game and it's difficult to see them slowing down the Ravens offense.
- Carolina Panthers: If you like to look ahead and find prime spots to use a team, there aren't many ideal ones for the Panthers. This might be the best option, despite being on the road on a Thursday night. The Texans have played better than expected, but it was mostly due to TyRod Taylor, who is out with a hamstring injury. Davis Mills will get the start without much practice. He replaced Taylor last week against the Browns and went 8-for-18 for 102 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per attempt. The Panthers defense has been excellent in the first two games with 10 sacks and is first in points, yards allowed and yards per play. Sam Darnold has played well with a lot of weapons to utilize. He has 584 passing yards and is completing 68.5 percent of his passes.
Player News
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.
Free agent CB Rasul Douglas is visiting the Seahawks on Tuesday.
It’s been a slow offseason for the veteran corner after a rough year with the Bills where he finished with just a 51.6 PFF coverage grade. The Dolphins have reportedly been in contact with Douglas, but this is the first known visit for him. He’d likely fit as a depth piece in Seattle, perhaps one that pushes Josh Jobe for a starting job outside in a best-case scenario.
Jets signed fourth-round WR Arian Smith to a four-year contract.
The good news for Smith is that he has a lot of depth chart runway. Garrett Wilson is the obvious No. 1, but neither Josh Reynolds nor Allen Lazard qualifies as a locked-in WR2 at this stage of their careers. Smith’s blazing speed has intrigued Aaron Glenn, who noted how fast he was in rookie minicamp over the weekend by simply noting “Arian has some juice.” The tough news is that as long as Justin Fields is the starter, it’s hard to believe he’ll be seeing many deep shots that aren’t schemed wide open. Still, Smith has some appeal in deeper leagues and could make an interesting dynasty stash.