As predicted, Week 1 was unpredictable and hopefully, you avoided the landmines of Indianapolis and San Francisco. I noted last week that the Cardinals could give the 49ers a game, and they obviously did, but no one saw the Jaguars winning against the Colts. My pick of the Bills was a winner, as the pathetic Jets were even worse than advertised. Now that we have a one-week glimpse into these teams, let’s hope Week 2 is kinder to the masses in survivor pools.
Week 2 Possibilities
One of the biggest favorites this week are the Titans -8 ½ at home against the Jaguars. The Jaguars bounced about 23% out of most survivor pools, but are they for real? Many are going to hesitate to take Tennessee this week. The Titans played a close game on Monday against the Broncos but that was mainly due to Stephen Gostkowski leaving 10 points wide left. The Titans will pound the ball with Derrick Henry and take advantage of the Jaguars secondary with the resurgent Corey Davis (ok, let’s not exaggerate here).
Tampa and TB12 make their home debut as 9½ point favorites over Carolina. Old Tom looked a little rusty and is still feeling his way around his new offense. He faced a very tough Saints secondary and was hampered by not having Mike Evans at full speed. The Panthers were run over by Josh Jacobs and this could lead to Tampa using their running game more this week. Tampa’s defense played well despite the loss holding the Saints to under 200 yards in the air. If they can keep CMC in check, they should come out on top.
Pittsburgh had opened as 5-point favorites at home against the Broncos, but after Monday night the line rose to 7½. This puts the Steelers into our home favorites by seven or more category. Their defense was impressive as it shut down Saquon Barkley and put constant pressure on Daniel Jones. The Broncos may not have Philip Lindsay but may have Cortland Sutton return. Denver lost on a late field goal but this game was only close because Stephen Gostkowski was so bad. The Steelers are a likely winner but have a few weeks going forward that they will have more value.
The Cardinals, coming off their upset of San Francisco, are favored over the team from Washington by 6½ at home. Carson Wentz and the injured Eagles offensive line is probably responsible for this line being closer than it should be. The Washington defensive line was dominant, but it was over an Eagles line that was without four starters. Let’s not get caught up in the hype. The Eagles were up by 17 and were throwing the ball at will until Wentz delivered two interceptions and allowed Washington back in the game. Arizona should be able to run the ball better than the Eagles did and keep the Washington D-line in check. Kyler Murray will also be able to avoid the pass rush just a tad better than Wentz did.
For all three of these teams, it’s their highest predicted chance of winning this season. Other teams that will be popular picks are the 49ers, Chiefs, Saints, and Ravens.
The chalk this week will be the 49ers over the hapless Jets. Going against the Jets will be a week to week bonanza in survivor pools, but the 49ers have value in future weeks and there are enough pivots this week so you can save them. Tampa, Tennessee, and our pick of the week have less value going forward so they move ahead of San Fran in Week 2.
The Week 2 Pick
The pick this week is the Cardinals. I know everyone is all hyped up about the Washington defensive line, but I explained why they dominated against the Eagles. They will have a hard time containing Kyler Murray and outside of Landon Collins , their secondary is very suspect. The Eagles were able to contain the Washington running game, and the Cardinals should be able to do the same. Logan Thomas had a big game last week and we know the Cardinals gave up a ton to tight ends last year, but Washington doesn’t have enough to get the win on the road. The Cardinals also have very little survivor value going forward making this the week to take them.
If you want to go in a different direction I’d go with Tampa Bay or Tennessee. For the risky, off the beaten path pick, Cleveland will be low owned and have about a 70% chance to win.
Good luck with Week 2 and hopefully we’ll see you back next week!
Player News
Fox Sports’ Jordan Szhultz reports Packers signed LB/S Isaiah Simmons, formerly of the Giants.
The former first-round hybrid linebacker and safety has yet to live up to his No. 8 overall selection in the 2020 draft, but brings the unique ability to fill multiple positions over the middle of the field to a Packers defense that prefers to play a more inside-out style. There is upside in his athletic profile and versatility - perhaps another change of scenery will serve to unlock some of that potential.
Steelers signed WR Robert Woods, formerly of the Texans, to a one-year, $2 million contract.
The 33-year-old wide receiver has long since seen his days of 100-target seasons fall by the wayside, but he still adds a veteran presence to a relatively young wide receiver room in Pittsburgh. Woods played over 60% of the offensive snaps for the Texans just twice in 2024 after doing so 13 times in 2023, indicating a high likelihood he was brought in for his locker room presence and veteran savvy rather than as a consistent contributor to the offense. The low risk signing makes sense for both parties considering Woods’ age and the state of the Pittsburgh pass-catching corps.
KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson reports the Browns met with free agent WR Diontae Johnson.
Johnson had a forgettable 2024, to put it mildly. The former Steelers receiver saw himself traded to the Panthers last offseason only to later be traded to the Ravens, where his lack of playing time eventually led to his release. He then found his way to the wide receiver-needy Texans, who rostered him for just over three weeks. He was then claimed off waivers by the Ravens but was not eligible to play during the postseason. Now a free agent, Johnson, 28, has not enjoyed the market many expected him to see this time last year. He’s a productive receiver who has amassed 424 catches for 4,738 yards and 28 touchdowns in his six-year career, but it goes without saying that he’s likely in brand rebuilding mode as far as this offseason is concerned. It’s hard to imagine any team giving him a lucrative contract after last year’s disastrous campaign. That said, Johnson could still still provide help to plenty of needy teams and could prove to be a valuable contributor at a cost-efficient price. This is the first visit we’ve heard of for Johnson, who may meet with other teams before signing.
Commanders signed Louisville WR Ja’Corey Brooks.
Brooks (6’2/184) was a highly-regarded recruit coming out of high school and committed to Alabama with offers from Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, and Penn State among others. Brooks got on the map as a sophomore with 674 yards and eight touchdowns. He didn’t play much as a junior while dealing with a shoulder injury and transferred to Louisville for his senior season. Brooks returned to form in 2024 with a 61/1,013/9 receiving line as the Cardinals’ leading receiver. Louisville used Brooks to stretch the field with a 15.1 aDOT. Brooks doesn’t have a speedy top gear, meaning he was forced to win contested targets. Over a quarter of his looks were contested in his final season, but he did manage to reel in nearly 70 percent of those looks. Brooks also struggled with drops throughout his career and logged a 10 percent drop rate in 2024. Brooks needs to flesh out his route tree and clean up the drops to find a consistent role in the pros.
Giants signed South Carolina CB O’Donnell Fortune
Fortune (6’1/189) played five years with South Carolina, starting his final two years with the Gamecocks. His best season came in 2024, where he finished with 47 total tackles, a forced fumble, three interceptions, and three pass defections. Against the rush, Fortune posted a lackluster 54.0 run defense grade with 20.7% missed tackle rate. He is quick and has good vision, however there are times where he hesitates causing him to miss important tackle opportunities. Fortune blossomed on the outside though, posting a pristine 90.1 PFF coverage grade in 2024. He’s not as physical as he could be in contested catch situations and can be sluggish in his transitions. Despite his limitations versus the run, the potential is there for Fortune to become a regular on nickel packages as a coverage specialist.
Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald said Jalen Milroe “is a quarterback through and through.”
Macdonald’s comments come on the heels of him being asked if Milroe could be used in a “Taysom Hill role.” The second-year coach said Milroe is “going to be trained to play quarterback” and added that Milroe will be playing QB when he is on the field. Milroe is a hyper-athletic but raw prospect at the quarterback position and is expected to need a year or two of grooming to improve his abilities as a passer and decision-making. It would not be at all surprising if we saw him in some select packages this upcoming season, but it sounds like the team will not be using him in the hybrid role we’ve grown accustomed to seeing for Hill.