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You probably heard me scream on Sunday around 4:15 pm ET when the Jets did what the Jets do and lost to the Raiders. You also heard a lot of other people breathe a sigh of relief when Dan Bailey hit the field goal in OT to give the Vikings their victory. Two of the most highly chosen teams in Week 13 almost decimated most survivor pools. Coupled with the Seahawks loss, very few would have survived.
So, there are still many of us moving on and to win, there are some things to consider. Do you continue to make the “safe” pick and be happy with moving on or do you go out on a limb and hope there’s an upset of one of the favored teams but put yourself at risk? In the upcoming weeks, I’ll try to lay out a path to follow for both scenarios. Some pools also make you pick two teams each week towards the end of the season, so we’ll go there as well.
Week 14 has one overwhelming favorite and will be highly owned this week despite their loss to the Giants. Seattle is 13 ½ point home favorites over the Jets. Can the Jets finally win a game? They have had their chances against New England, Las Vegas, and the Chargers but always come up short. This game shouldn’t be that close, but the Seahawks were supposed to beat the Giants too. The NY teams are going in very different directions and that will be the difference. Seattle takes this one and you shouldn’t be sweating it out at the end.
The other four teams that are 7+ point favorites are all on the road and three of them are teams that most have used already but we’ll go over all four.
Green Bay visits Detroit who won their first game after the Matt Patricia firing. Expect a big game from Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams as the Lions’ run defense is terrible. Pair that with the domination of Davante Adams and Green Bay drives home the victory in the Motor City and makes the 7 ½ point spread seem small.
Kansas City visits the Dolphins in warm Miami and are 7 ½ point favorites. Travis Kelce continues to make his case for MVP in both reality and fantasy. The Chiefs struggled in the first half against the Broncos but did enough to win. Miami took care of the Bengals who have not been able to muster any offense after the Joe Burrow injury. The Dolphins welcomed back Myles Gaskin who ran for 90 yds and had a strong game from Mike Gesicki . The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC and should win, but the Dolphins have a chance to make this close. If you have other options, I’d probably go there.
Another team that most have taken, but if you haven’t, this is a game to consider is New Orleans. They are seven-point favorites over the Eagles in the City of Brotherly Love. Will Jalen Hurts be able to turn the Eagles recent struggles around? The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and should have no problems with the Eagles.
The Titans were taken to town by Baker Mayfield and the Browns in Week 13. They go to Week 14 as 7 ½ point road favorites over Jacksonville. As I said last week, the Jaguars keep it close and will give you angst if you pick against them. Expect the same this week. Tennessee has to get its act together and win to stay in the playoff hunt and they should. With their poor performance last week and the Jaguars seemingly trying to win, the Titans will probably be picked less than they should be. This could be the contrarian way to go if you want to take a lesser picked team.
If you are at the point where you have to take two teams or you don’t have any of the four teams above to choose from I’d look at Atlanta over the Chargers and Dallas over the Bengals. Atlanta has played very well after the firing of Dan Quinn and the Chargers have seemingly gone backward recently. Dallas has also played better recently but this is more a pick against the Bengals than for the Cowboys.
Here’s a list of my picks so far: Buffalo, Arizona, Chargers (L), Rams, Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Giants, and Las Vegas.
Pick of the Week: Seattle
Out of the five bigger favorites, I had Seattle and Tennessee to choose from. Seattle is the biggest favorite of the week and should get you to Week 15. It comes down to your risk tolerance and how your pool is run. If there are a lot of people left, then using Tennessee (or Green Bay or New Orleans if you still have them available) may be the way you want to go so that you increase your chances of winning if they win. Seattle will probably be picked by 50% of the participants and the others below 15%. This gives you Seattle for later in the season if you need them and a huge advantage if somehow, they get upset by the Jets. For those who can pick the same team more than once, Seattle, Green Bay, and New Orleans would be my top picks.
Good luck and hope to see you back for Week 15!
Player News
CBS Sports’ Aditi Kinkhabwala says free agent QB Aaron Rodgers “is not going to play just for the sake of playing.”
Kinkhabwala has had conversations with Rodgers and executives around the league trying to sign him. Based on those conversations, she says, “it’s extremely clear Rodgers is not going to play just for the sake of playing.” He remains unsigned with the 2025 NFL Draft on the horizon and multiple teams needing quarterback help. The Steelers are the most likely fit, but it seems Rodgers won’t force it if he does not find a good fit. This explains why Rodgers has been interested in the Vikings and has not yet signed. The 41-year-old may be headed for retirement if a situation he prefers, like the Vikings, does not want him back. His options remain limited and Rodgers may call it a career if he still does not like his options later in the offseason.
Bears signed LB T.J. Edwards to a two-year, $20 million extension.
Edwards’ extension includes $16.6 million guaranteed. The Bears originally signed him to a three-year, $19.5 million contract two seasons ago and he has outplayed that salary. Edwards has four interceptions, 6.5 sacks, and 20 tackles for loss in two seasons starting for Chicago in the middle of the field. He gets a raise as the Bears lock up another important part of their defense after extending CB Kyler Gordon earlier in the week.
Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams visited the Falcons on Wednesday.
Williams posted on his Instagram that he visited the Falcons facility on what was the last day of pre-draft visits. The 20-year-old is a Georgia native, played at the University of Georgia, and is expected to be selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. The Falcons have a need for an edge rusher and hold the No. 15 pick. They may look to keep Williams in-state and add his skillset to their pass-rushing group. Williams tallied five sacks last season and has explosive production for any team looking to add an edge rusher in the first round.
Fox Sports’ Jordan Schultz reports Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart “won’t fall out of the first round.”
Schultz reports his sources are indicating that Dart will not fall out of the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He continues that the Giants are a candidate to trade up from pick No. 34 into the first round to take Dart if they do not take a quarterback at pick No. 3. The Saints are also an option with pick No. 9 or a trade up from pick No. 40. Dart is generally considered the third quarterback to come off the board after Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, so a team in need of a franchise quarterback may take a chance on him after Ward and Sanders are selected. Teams could look to gain a fifth-year option on Dart and trade into the first round if he is not taken earlier.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Raiders LT Kolton Miller is not participating in the voluntary offseason program and seeks an extension.
Miller was the Raiders’ first-round pick in 2018 and has started 107 games over seven seasons for the team. He is set to enter the final year of his current contract in 2025, making $12.25 million. Though he is not technically holding out yet since the offseason program is voluntary, Fowler notes Miller is seeking an extension. He finished last season with an 80.6 PFF grade, No. 14 among offensive tackles. Miller has been the Raiders’ franchise left tackle for seven years now and both sides will certainly discuss an extension as training camp nears.
Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten said he had a private workout with the Commanders’ running backs coach.
Tuten didn’t name him directly, but Anthony Lynn is currently the Commanders’ running backs coach and run game coordinator. The Commanders were hampered by injuries to both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler last year. Robinson Jr. missed three games and played through some of his injuries while Ekeler missed five contests and was limited to just 112 touches. Tuten crushed the combine with a 4.32 Forty at 5'9/206. He handled 200 touches in back-to-back seasons at Virginia Tech while topping 1,100 yards from scrimmage in both campaigns. He would offer the Washington backfield a good mix of durability and home run potential.