You probably heard me scream on Sunday around 4:15 pm ET when the Jets did what the Jets do and lost to the Raiders. You also heard a lot of other people breathe a sigh of relief when Dan Bailey hit the field goal in OT to give the Vikings their victory. Two of the most highly chosen teams in Week 13 almost decimated most survivor pools. Coupled with the Seahawks loss, very few would have survived.

So, there are still many of us moving on and to win, there are some things to consider. Do you continue to make the “safe” pick and be happy with moving on or do you go out on a limb and hope there’s an upset of one of the favored teams but put yourself at risk? In the upcoming weeks, I’ll try to lay out a path to follow for both scenarios. Some pools also make you pick two teams each week towards the end of the season, so we’ll go there as well.

Week 14 has one overwhelming favorite and will be highly owned this week despite their loss to the Giants. Seattle is 13 ½ point home favorites over the Jets. Can the Jets finally win a game? They have had their chances against New England, Las Vegas, and the Chargers but always come up short. This game shouldn’t be that close, but the Seahawks were supposed to beat the Giants too. The NY teams are going in very different directions and that will be the difference. Seattle takes this one and you shouldn’t be sweating it out at the end.

The other four teams that are 7+ point favorites are all on the road and three of them are teams that most have used already but we’ll go over all four.

Green Bay visits Detroit who won their first game after the Matt Patricia firing. Expect a big game from Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams as the Lions’ run defense is terrible. Pair that with the domination of Davante Adams and Green Bay drives home the victory in the Motor City and makes the 7 ½ point spread seem small.

Kansas City visits the Dolphins in warm Miami and are 7 ½ point favorites. Travis Kelce continues to make his case for MVP in both reality and fantasy. The Chiefs struggled in the first half against the Broncos but did enough to win. Miami took care of the Bengals who have not been able to muster any offense after the Joe Burrow injury. The Dolphins welcomed back Myles Gaskin who ran for 90 yds and had a strong game from Mike Gesicki . The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC and should win, but the Dolphins have a chance to make this close. If you have other options, I’d probably go there.

Another team that most have taken, but if you haven’t, this is a game to consider is New Orleans. They are seven-point favorites over the Eagles in the City of Brotherly Love. Will Jalen Hurts be able to turn the Eagles recent struggles around? The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and should have no problems with the Eagles.

The Titans were taken to town by Baker Mayfield and the Browns in Week 13. They go to Week 14 as 7 ½ point road favorites over Jacksonville. As I said last week, the Jaguars keep it close and will give you angst if you pick against them. Expect the same this week. Tennessee has to get its act together and win to stay in the playoff hunt and they should. With their poor performance last week and the Jaguars seemingly trying to win, the Titans will probably be picked less than they should be. This could be the contrarian way to go if you want to take a lesser picked team.

If you are at the point where you have to take two teams or you don’t have any of the four teams above to choose from I’d look at Atlanta over the Chargers and Dallas over the Bengals. Atlanta has played very well after the firing of Dan Quinn and the Chargers have seemingly gone backward recently. Dallas has also played better recently but this is more a pick against the Bengals than for the Cowboys.

Here’s a list of my picks so far:  Buffalo, Arizona, Chargers (L), Rams, Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Giants, and Las Vegas.

Pick of the Week: Seattle

Out of the five bigger favorites, I had Seattle and Tennessee to choose from.  Seattle is the biggest favorite of the week and should get you to Week 15. It comes down to your risk tolerance and how your pool is run. If there are a lot of people left, then using Tennessee (or Green Bay or New Orleans if you still have them available) may be the way you want to go so that you increase your chances of winning if they win. Seattle will probably be picked by 50% of the participants and the others below 15%. This gives you Seattle for later in the season if you need them and a huge advantage if somehow, they get upset by the Jets. For those who can pick the same team more than once, Seattle, Green Bay, and New Orleans would be my top picks.

Good luck and hope to see you back for Week 15!