The first stress-free recommendation in a few weeks with the Steelers taking care of the Jaguars. On the other hand, the Vikings knocked a few people out so if you’re still alive, you are closer to victory. Now if the Jets would’ve taken care of the Chargers, and they were about 40 yards short, the pools would have shrunk by a lot. Our plan of saving the Vikings for week 12 sure looks good now but with their performance at home against the Cowboys, can we trust them?
There are no teams on bye in week 12 so everyone is available which helps as we get deeper into the season and only Tampa and Carolina are on bye in week 13. One of the games with a point spread of 7 or more points is Green Bay over Chicago in the land of the frozen tundra (This game is currently off the board at Westgate but is 8 ½ at most books). Green Bay’s defense laid an egg in the second half against the Colts, but the offense didn’t help either keeping the defense on the field. On the flip side, the Bears offense is horrendous and we’ll have to check on the status of Nick Foles after he was carted off the field in their last game. Foles is not reminding anyone of Dan Marino this year, and it may not even matter if he’s back. Chicago’s defense is what gives this game the remote possibility of being close. The Packers will be a popular pick if you have them available or if you can take any team each week.
Miami travels to New Jersey to face the Jets as 7 point favorites. A week ago you would have thought that this was a slam dunk. The Jets have stepped up their game a bit, and if they had the semblance of an NFL secondary on Sunday, they may have beaten the Chargers. Miami went to Denver and allowed the pathetic Broncos offense to come back to life. Tua also struggled and was lifted for Fitzmagic, but he did was Fitz does late in the season and threw an interception thwarting a Dolphins comeback. The Jets are getting closer to winning a game. Will the potential return of Sam Darnold help or hurt the cause? If Darnold plays I’ll lean more towards the Dolphins but this is no slam dunk game for Miami.
Cleveland travels to Jacksonville and is favored on the road by 6 ½. They beat the Eagles at home in the pouring rain, which the way Philly was playing wasn’t that hard. The return of Nick Chubb and offensive lineman Wyatt Teller has allowed Cleveland to lessen the load on Baker Mayfield and this has led to fewer mistakes. Myles Garrett will miss his second straight due to a Covid 19 designation. Jacksonville was awful against the Steelers and this was a combination of the Steelers’ stellar defense and the struggles of Jake Luton. Gardner Minshew is making some progress in his attempt to return from his thumb injury, but he needs another week so the Jags will be starting Mike Glennon . This is the week to take the Browns if there ever was one.
In L.A. the Rams host the 49ers and are favored by 7. Jared Goff led the charge against a Tampa defense that is fading with each week on Monday night. The Rams are on a roll and find themselves in first place. The Niners come off their bye after losing three straight. It remains to be seen who will suit up for them at running back. McKinnon is the only healthy back, but Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert may return. Jeff Wilson was also designated for return to practice but it appears he may need another week before being activated. Deebo Samuel has also begun to practice and may also see the field on Sunday. This is going to be a tough one to read as the Rams are hot and we haven’t seen the Niners in two weeks. The potential return of some offensive weapons may help San Francisco keep this one close.
As I mentioned earlier the Vikings were a team that I was targeting for this week. After losing to the dreadful Cowboys they face the Panthers as 4 ½ point favorites and have become harder to rely on. The Panthers blanked the Lions and PJ Walker filled in admirably for the injured Teddy Bridgewater . If you’re still alive you probably still have the Vikings to choose from. It may be wise to save them for another week but they will be an option.
There are a few other games that intrigue me despite their lower point spreads and one may be where I go this week for my pick. Houston travels to Detroit on Thanksgiving and are 2 ½ point favorites. Detroit has been terrible and this point spread just seems low. Houston could be a contrarian option for you.
The Giants travel to the now Joe Burrow-less Bengals and are 5 ½ point favorites. They have played well recently and come off their bye. They are dealing with some Covid issues, but it doesn’t appear to have gotten too out of hand. The Bungles should be back and the Giants will also need to be closely looked at as an option.
The Saints are 6 point favorites at Denver and didn’t skip a beat with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The only ones complaining were the Alvin Kamara owners who saw him get shut out on the reception front. If you have them, they could also be a team to look at.
Buffalo is a 5 ½ point home favorite over the Chargers. The Chargers find a way to lose and almost did so against the Jets. There is a chance the Austin Ekeler returns and this would help L.A. as Buffalo would have to account for him. The Bills aren’t the biggest favorite of the week but have one of the highest win probabilities.
Lastly, on Monday, Seattle goes into Philadelphia as 5 ½ point favorites coming off their road win in Arizona. The Eagles are just awful right now. They may have some motivation on Monday as there will be at least one, and maybe two teams with 4 wins in the pathetic NFC (L)East. Russell Wilson should shred the Eagles secondary and the expected return of Chris Carson could help keep the pass rush at bay just a bit. Seattle is a strong play.
So there are a lot of options this week but no team, based on the point spreads, is a slam dunk. Your choice this week will depend on who you have left to choose from and what you see going forward. A few of the teams I have mentioned can’t be my choice as I’ve chosen them already this year such as the Rams, Saints, Dolphins, Bills, and Packers.
Here’s a list of my picks so far: Buffalo, Arizona, Chargers (L), Rams, Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh.
Pick of the Week: New York Giants
I may be going out on a limb here. The Giants have been playing well and with the injury to Joe Burrow and the IR designation of Joe Mixon , the Bengals offense is in trouble. The game is on the road, but without many fans, this hasn’t been much of a detriment this year. Daniel Jones is developing into a run threat (or is it just against the Eagles?) and the Bengals defense will have to be wary of him. The Giants’ secondary has improved and Brandon Allen , who will start after being activated from the practice squad, could easily struggle. The Giants have no value the rest of the season and this allows you to save teams like Minnesota (week 13 vs. Jax), Seattle (week 14 vs. Jets), and others for upcoming weeks. If you’re worried about taking the Giants I would probably lean towards the Packers/Bills/Vikings/Rams if you have them available. If you take the Vikings this week, the Raiders would be in play next week against the Jets.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving. I am thankful obviously for my family, but also for the opportunity to be part of this #FAmily. Hope to see you back next week!
Player News
Broncos signed third-round pick WR Pat Bryant to a four-year contract.
The deal includes $1.4 million guaranteed and is worth $6.6 million in total. Sean Payton compared aspects of Bryant’s game to those of Michael Thomas in his post-draft press conference and there are at least a few similarities in their profiles. Bryant stands at 6'2/204 and ran a 4.61-second Forty at the combine. Thomas measured in at 6'3/212 and clocked a 4.57-second Forty. Though the two have similar physical characteristics, Thomas was known for his proficiency from the slot while Bryant primarily played on the outside as a field-stretcher at Illinois. Bryant’s transition to slot duties may take some time, but third-round draft capital makes him worth a shot in dynasty leagues.
Colts EDGE Samson Ebukam (Achilles) said he is expected to be cleared for training camp.
Ebukam suffered a torn Achilles in training camp last year and did not play in the 2024 season. He broke out in 2023 with a career-high 9.5 sacks in his first season with the Colts. He now has one year left on his deal and will be looking for a rebound season as he stares down free agency in 2026
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports the Steelers are “counting on” a 2025 jump for WR Roman Wilson.
Wilson, per Fowler, “looks like a different player than from his injury riddled rookie campaign.” Steelers general manager Omar Khan said in February that the team has “a lot of confidence” in Wilson, the 84th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft who played just five offensive snaps as a rookie after suffering a serious hamstring injury in October. Wilson, entering his age-24 season, had 789 yards and 12 touchdowns on 49 catches in his final season at Michigan. He was 19th among all college wideouts in yards per route run in 2023. An injury-free offseason could position Wilson as the clear No. 2 receiver behind DK Metcalf in 2025.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports the Steelers “remain in contact with Aaron Rodgers and are hopeful that he’ll be a Steeler.”
Things have been quiet on the Rodgers front since the NFL Draft, though he remains a factor for the QB-needy Steelers, who on Wednesday traded George Pickens to Dallas in exchange for draft picks. That leaves DK Metcalf and perhaps Roman Wilson as the Steelers’ top two receivers. Metcalf’s fantasy fortunes would get a bit of a bump if Rodgers lands with the Steelers. The team’s commitment to a massively run-heavy approach should limit Metcalf’s upside, however. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio suggested Rodgers is waiting to sign with Pittsburgh until after the NFL’s schedule release “so that the league can’t saddle the Steelers with extra prime-time and/or short-week games.” We’ll continue to monitor the never-ending Rodgers saga.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports the Cowboys’ plan is for George Pickens “to play out his rookie deal.”
It looks like we won’t see any sort of long-term contract struck between Pickens and the Cowboys after the mercurial wideout was traded from the Steelers to Dallas in exchange for a 2026 third round draft pick and a 2027 fifth rounder. Dallas coaches and Jerry Jones likely want to see how Pickens, 24, acclimates to his new team after alienating coaches and teammates in Pittsburgh last season. Pickens, who has 2,841 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over three NFL seasons, will immediately become the team’s No. 2 option behind CeeDee Lamb and a much-needed deep ball target for Dak Prescott.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane reports TE Dallas Goedert will remain with the Eagles in 2025.
Goedert agreed to a $4 million salary cut for the upcoming season, per NFL insider Jordan Schultz. He will make $10 million in 2025 and be a free agent next offseason. It’s quite the turnabout after Eagles coaches and front office officials strongly implied for months that Goedert had played his last snap with the team. Goedert, 30, has missed 15 games over the past three seasons and was widely expected to be dealt during the NFL Draft. Goedert will be a solid top-12 fantasy option, well behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in the team’s target pecking order. He averaged 4.2 catches and 49.6 receiving yards per game in 2024 and had the ninth highest EPA per target among tight ends.