It’s either the final week of the regular season for your league or it’s the first week of the playoffs depending on league size and format. This is also the final week of bye weeks. I’ll be taking a bit of a different approach to this piece this week as well and giving the key things to look for and relevant factoids in a bullet form for each match-up to make it easier to peruse through each game.
Make sure to keep up-to-date with all of the latest in Covid-19 news ahead of lineup locks with the Fantasy Alarm Live Covid Blog.
As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Bye Weeks: Carolina and Tampa Bay
Match-Up Breakdowns
Cleveland (8-3) at Tennessee (8-3)
Cleveland ranks fifth in FPPG to the tight end position and gives up an average of 62.3 yards a game to them (fourth-most in the league)
Jarvis Landry has averaged 86.7 yards a game in three games against the AFC South and less than 45 a game in other match-ups.
Baker Mayfield against winning teams this year is 1-3 with a 4:5 TD:INT ratio.
Tennessee is giving up 158-plus yards a game on the ground and Nick Chubb has averaged over 5.5 YPC in seven straight games (longest streak in the NFL since 1970).
Derrick Henry could have a strong day with Cleveland allowing the most yards on the ground a game at 161.4.
Las Vegas (6-5) at New York (0-11)
In the two years that Josh Jacobs has been on the Raiders, they are 10-4 (5-0 this year) when he tops 75 yards rushing and 2-8 when he doesn’t. The Jets are allowing the 11th-fewest yards on the ground.
Derek Carr should be back on target (excuse the pun) this week as the Jets are allowing the highest completion rate for opposing QBs at 71.8-percent. Carr is at 69.8-percent for the season.
New York has scored 17 or fewer points in eight games this year, the most in the NFL and have allowed 30 or more points in all six non-divisional games this year (an NFL record for most since 1967).
Las Vegas has allowed a top-five fantasy RB twice in the last three weeks and Frank Gore ’s carries have increased each of the last three weeks.
Jacksonville (1-10) at Minnesota (5-6)
Kirk Cousins has been a completely different QB the last five games completing 72.4-percent of his passes with a 12:1 TD:INT ratio. Jacksonville is allowing the third-most points to QBs this year.
Jacksonville ranks last or next to last in several key defensive categories like DVOA, yards per game allowed, yards per play, and passing yards per play and have allowed top-six points to each position on average this year.
According to PFF, Adam Thielen , Justin Jefferson, and Chad Beebe all have top-five match-ups in their favor this week.
Minnesota has allowed 120.7 yards on the ground a week and 40.3 yards receiving to RBs so James Robinson could have a nice day ahead.
Cincinnati (2-8-1) at Miami (7-4)
The Dolphins have allowed fewer than 21 points in 8-of-11 games this year, the most in the NFL.
Cincinnati is 0-2 when allowing fewer than 20 points this year so they’re not even winning the low-scoring games.
The Bengals haven’t allowed a touchdown to a TE in four straight games but are still giving up the third-most points to the position on the season.
DeVante Parker is averaging .41 FP/RT (fantasy points per route) this year and Cincinnati ranks 26th and 28th respectively in passes to the left and right and Parker switches sides of the field throughout the game.
Indianapolis (7-4) at Houston (4-7)
Houston has allowed six 100-yard rushers this year, no other team in the league has allowed more than four.
T.Y. Hilton has a top-nine match-up according to PFF this week, but he’s not had a 100-yard receiving game since Andrew Luck retired (21-game drought).
Deshaun Watson hasn’t thrown a pick in six-straight games but the Colts defense has been tough this year allowing the third-fewest point to quarterbacks and just about 210 passing yards a game.
If the linebackers that missed last week’s game for the Colts aren’t back this week, the Texans' offense could be in a sneaky good spot just like the Titans were last week when they hung 40-plus points on the Colts. However, with Will Fuller out they need to find a way to move the ball to make that happen.
Detroit (4-7) at Chicago (5-6)
As bad as the Bears have been of late, they averaged 24.8 points a game with Mitch Trubisky under center and just 16.7 with Nick Foles , and Trubisky has 14 career TDs versus the Lions.
Teams tend to perform very well the week after firing their coach, like the Lions did this week, and have won at over 60-percent in the last several years.
Matthew Stafford has one or fewer touchdowns in five of his last seven games and the Bears are allowing the second-fewest points to opposing wideouts this year.
If there is a weakness to the Bears’ defense, it’s that they are giving up the sixth-most points to the TE this year and give up nearly 60 yards a game to the position.
Allen Robinson will test the Lions’ defense deep and Detroit has been quite beatable deep as they rank 29th in DVOA against both the deep left and deep right routes.
New Orleans (9-2) at Atlanta (4-7)
These two teams met two weeks ago and it was a blowout win for the Saints 24-9.
Since firing Dan Quinn, Atlanta is 4-2 while scoring 28.8 points a game and allowing just 20 with 11 takeaways and 15 sacks, all vastly better than the first games under Quinn.
Todd Gurley has 100 yards rushing just once in his last 27 games and the Saints haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 49 straight games.
The Saints offense has completely flipped in play-calling under Taysom Hill as they’ve run it 68.8-percent of the time the last two games compared to 39.6-percent under Brees.
If Julio Jones is playing Matt Ryan has a 101.0 passer rating and if he’s not on the field that drops to a 68.9 mark. Meanwhile, the Saints rank top-five in several defensive categories including total yards, rush yards, passing yards, and yards per play.
New York (4-7) at Seattle (8-3)
The Giants' offense will look different this week with Daniel Jones out and Colt McCoy under center but six of their last seven games have been decided by three points or less.
The Seahawks at home are undefeated at home this year and DK Metcalf has at least one receiving touchdown in six straight home games as well.
The defensive stats have gotten a lot better for Seattle in their last three games (though easier competition) allowing just 20.3 points per game with four sacks a game and nearly 140 fewer yards a game allowed.
David Moore might be a sneaky play this week as the match-up seems to favor him with the Giants being the worst team against wideouts that lineup on the right side.
The Giants will need to rely a bit more on Wayne Gallman with McCoy under center and the Seahawks are allowing less than 90 rushing yards a game.
Los Angeles (7-4) at Arizona (6-5)
Two six-game streaks are converging for the Rams this week as they’ve put up less than 30 points in six straight games (the longest of the McVay era) and they’ve gone 6-0 against Arizona under McVay’s tutelage as well.
The Rams defense has been one of the best at pressuring quarterbacks this year, really one of the best all-around units if you look at the table above, but Kyler Murray has been the least pressured quarterback in the league this year.
Murray’s shoulder issue has held DeAndre Hopkins to less than 60 yards and no touchdowns in two straight games for the first time since 2016 and now Jalen Ramsey figures to be locking him down.
Jared Goff has had 10 turnovers since Week 8, the most in the NFL in that time, and so this game likely comes down to the running games which both teams rank in the top-nine for rushing yards per game and percent of plays called as runs, though the Rams’ defense is top-four against the while Arizona is 22nd, giving up 123.4 yards a game.
New England (5-6) at Los Angeles (3-8)
Nearly every game for the Chargers this year has ended within one possession and all have been within 10 points.
Cam Newton is on pace to be the first QB in the Super Bowl era to have twice as many rushing touchdowns as passing touchdowns while Justin Herbert is the first rookie to average 300-plus yards passing per game and a better than 100 passer rating.
Austin Ekeler is a big add for this offense of Los Angeles as in the four full games he’s played this year he’s averaged 126.8 yards from scrimmage.
The Patriots have been middle of the road against wide receivers this year ranking 16th in FP allowed and Keenan Allen has at least a receiving touchdown in five straight games, though he’ll draw Stephon Gilmore in all likelihood.
The Chargers put up the second-most passing yards a game right now and the Patriots are allowing the second-most yards per pass on defense.
Philadelphia (3-7-1) at Green Bay (8-3)
The best team at home since 2019, with or without fans, has been the Packers at 11-2, though the only home loss last year was to Philadelphia in Week 4, though that was a different Eagles team.
The main weapon for Green Bay, Davante Adams , is doing something that no other Packer has done in the last 68 years, averaging over 100 YPG receiving but facing Darius Slay has been a rough time for WR1s this year based on DVOA.
Carson Wentz has had at least one turnover in 10 of 11 games this year while being sacked 46 times, he had just eight games last year with a turnover and the Packers have been pretty good at getting turnovers at opportune times.
While the Packers’ defense doesn’t rank quite as well as the Eagles’ it’s the Eagles’ offense that’s let them down with fewer than 17 points in three straight games for the first time since 2016 and that doesn’t bode well while facing one of the league’s best offenses.
Denver (4-7) at Kansas City (10-1)
The good news for Denver is they get at least a couple of QBs back for this game, just in time to face the defense giving up the most passing yards per game since Week 9 (316 YPG).
The bad news for Denver is that they are facing the white-hot Patrick Mahomes (30:2 TD:INT ratio), Tyreek Hill (9.3 RPG, 145.5 YPG, eight TDs in the last four games) and Travis Kelce who averages 81.6 YPG against DEN (the most by any TE in NFL history against DEN).
The Broncos’ defense is weak where the Chiefs are weak on offense, the rushing game, but rank seventh in the league in fewest yards allowed passing at 210.1 while the Chiefs have the number one passing game in the league at 314.5 yards per.
Kansas City needs to keep pace with Pittsburgh for a shot to have home-field advantage and it’s possible that playing in front of fans for the first time this year might cause issues for Denver.
Washington (4-7) at Pittsburgh (11-0)
This might look like a mismatch on paper just seeing the records and what is conjured up when saying WFT and Steelers historically. However, this match-up is very even.
They are the top-two defenses against the pass, both allowing less than 195 passing yards a game, they are also both top-five in DVOA, YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and Passing yards per attempt.
Ben Roethlisberger , in his career, has averaged just 175.8 yards passing per game against Washington, the fewest against any team and he hasn’t looked as crisp the last few weeks.
With Alex Smith at the helm, Washington is averaging 27.0 PPG (up from 19.0), 382.3 total yards per game (up from 292.7), and 264.3 passing yards per game (up from 192.6).
Washington is also still in a very tight battle for the division lead.
Buffalo (8-3) at San Francisco (5-6)
This is the first home game, aside from their London game, being played away from their home stadium since 1989. The game is being played in Arizona due to Covid restrictions.
The Bills are 1-8 on Monday Night Football since 2000 with the only win being over the Jets in 2014.
While San Fran has been riddled with injuries this year, their defense is still strong and while the Bills are averaging better than 370 yards per game on offense and are 10th in PPG, they are dealing with a key loss on offense in John Brown and can be a bit too dependent on Josh Allen from time to time in the rushing attack.
San Francisco can likely keep this game close with their top-10, in nearly every category, defense and with the Bills’ defense not being as stout there is room for fantasy upside here from their offense.
Dallas (3-8) at Baltimore (6-5)
The Cowboys are miraculously still just a game out of the NFC East lead and with Andy Dalton under center their offense is showing signs of life.
Baltimore is coming off a rough week and it’s still unclear what their full roster will look like for the game but an advantage they’ll have is that Dallas is allowing the most rushing yards per game (156.4) and Baltimore is still averaging the third-most yards on the ground per game (157.6).
On paper, if Baltimore is able to get a good week of practice, they shouldn’t have much trouble with the porous Dallas defense, but this game could also turn into a bit of a shootout as the Cowboys’ offense still has a ton of weapons at it’s dispersal to counter Baltimore’s rushing attack.