Thanksgiving games are here this week and the all-important fantasy football Week 12. For some, this is the last week of the regular season and for others, this is the penultimate week ahead of the playoffs. Either way, there are no bye weeks and with every team playing it’s a great chance to look to gain an unexpected edge in match-ups for DFS or seasonal.
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As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Bye Weeks: None
Match-Up Breakdowns
Houston (3-7) at Detroit (4-6)
Thanksgiving is starting off with some fireworks in this one. Two high-powered passing attacks facing two pass defenses who rank in the bottom third of the league in yards allowed and yards per play. According to PFF, there are three WR/CB matchups in the top-11 in terms of positive advantage for the wideout and that’s without Kenny Golladay taken into account as he may or may not play as he was listed as a non-participant in Tuesday’s practice report. The tastiest match-up that we’re awaiting in this game, is the potential return of D’Andre Swift to the Lions backfield against the worst rush defense in the league and the team that’s given up the second-most fantasy points to the position so far.
Washington (3-7) at Dallas (3-7)
This will be the 122nd meeting in this great NFC East rivalry and this time it happens on Thanksgiving which will be the 10th on Turkey Day. Dallas has won all but one of those previous Thanksgiving meetings and has 73 wins against Washington all-time. That doesn’t mean it’s all Dallas this time as both teams are struggling through 2020 and aren’t with their original starting quarterbacks, yet both are vying for a share of first place in the NFC East with a win. Andy Dalton was solid in his return last week but this is a far tougher defense than he faced last week as the Washington unit is best against the pass in terms of yards per game. While Washington has the fourth best pass defense based on DVOA, against number-one wideouts they are only 26th-best and so look for potentially Cooper or Lamb, whoever Dalton favors in this match-up, to be a sneaky productive play. Meanwhile Alex Smith has been putting up a bunch of yardage in his starts and Terry McLaurin gets a very tasty match-up this week against a soft Cowboys secondary.
Miami (6-4) at New York (0-10)
Miami comes to Metlife just a game out of the AFC East lead with a very tasty match-up against a divisional foe who our Justin Fensterman likes to call the Planes right now, until they get a win. While the Jets did hang 28 on the Chargers last week, the Dolphins' defense has been better than L.A.’s for a while now and is producing turnovers and stifling offenses very well. No matter who’s been under center for the Jets they’ve ranked dead last in nearly every category offensively this year and the only two bright spots for them have been the rush defense and their red zone defense which ranks fourth in the league. Tua Tagovailoa was benched last week for struggling and if he has the same issues this week we could see Ryan Fitzpatrick come in to try and boost the offense but either way the Dolphins defense and offensive players should be safe plays and look for Mike Gesicki to have a nice day as the Jets, sorry Planes, have struggled against tight ends this year.
Arizona (6-4) at New England (4-6)
Two teams on two interesting paths this season as the Cardinals have been quite electric on offense and have been in quite a few shootouts, while the Patriots have been doing it with timely defense and rushing this year. While the record for New England looks rough, four of the six losses are by one possession and now that Cam Newton has turned things around the last two games with a 106.1 passer rating in that span (77.6 in the seven prior) we could be in line for a shootout in Foxboro. The Cardinals have allowed 28 points or more in the last four games and Kyler Murray is the only offensive player with at least two touchdowns in each game this season in the NFL. The tricky part of this match-up is DeAndre Hopkins who has been alternating 100-yard games every other week, and is due this week, but his facing Stephon Gilmore who’s given up just one 100-yard receiving game in his career, Week 17 last year.
Carolina (4-7) at Minnesota (4-6)
The Vikings have been bolstered the last few weeks by improved play from Kirk Cousins who has posted a 9:1 TD:INT ratio since Week 8 with a 128.1 passer rating and of course Dalvin Cook has had some monster games. Carolina meanwhile is expected to have Teddy Bridgewater back under center for this game, though since 2000, QBs that have played for Minnesota are 0-3 in revenge games. There are some sneaky upside plays in this game as Carolina has given up a top-10 quarterback performance four times this year and Minnesota is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts with Curtis Samuel coming in with 17 or more points in four of the last five games.
Cleveland (7-3) at Jacksonville (1-9)
There is a ton going on with this game this week. It was last month when Baker Mayfield threw his last passing touchdown as he’s not had one in three straight games. Nick Chubb is back in the fold again for the Browns and his effect on their offense can’t be understated as they are 5-1 with nearly 200 yards rushing a game with 10 rushing touchdowns with him compared to 2-2 without him and less than 100 yards a game and no rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars are coming in on the longest streak in their history of allowing 24 or more points on defense at nine games while the Jaguars rushing game also bears mentioning. James Robinson is arguably an RB1 at this point as he’s posted 10 or more points in each of his 10 games this season, one of only two backs to achieve that. Cleveland’s defense has held their last three opponents (Raiders, Texans, Eagles) to 13.3 PPG which is second-fewest in that span and now Jacksonville has a new quarterback. Oh yeah there’s this too:
Here's the craziest part: Mike Glennon got benched in 2017 for Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky , who got benched this year for Nick Foles , who got benched last year for Gardner Minshew, who got replaced by Luton, who is now benched in favor of Glennon
— Mark Long (@APMarkLong) November 25, 2020
Tennessee (7-3) at Indianapolis (7-3)
A battle for first place in the AFC South is happening in Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. In order for Tennessee to get the upper-hand in the divisional race though, they’ll have to do something they’ve failed to do since 1992, that’s beat the Colts in Indy in back-to-back meetings. Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry have been a very tough combo to stop for opposing defenses this year as Tannehill is having equally as good a year as he had in his 10 games last year but Indianapolis’ defense is perhaps the unit that can do just that as they did just two games ago. The Colts won 34-17 back on November 12th. This game is a contrarian GPP stack dream as having played so recently means we can expect a few new wrinkles in the offenses that break some plays for big gains.
New York (3-7) at Cincinnati (2-7-1)
There are some major questions for both teams coming into this game. Obviously, the biggest being that Joe Burrow isn’t under center for the Bengals and instead it’s Brandon Allen . The next biggest being can the Giants hold a lead? They’ve had a lead of 10 or more points in each of the last six games but have only won three of them. The Bengals defense is ripe for the picking and has allowed four top-12 wideouts in the last three games combined which fits well with Daniel Jones hont having turned the ball over in the last two games.
Los Angeles (3-7) at Buffalo (7-3)
The Bills are coming off their bye week and that’s boded well for them the last three years as the Bills are 3-0 under Sean McDermott in such games. Both teams have quarterbacks with nearly identical stats this year but the advantage for Buffalo is that Josh Allen is the leading rushing touchdown scorer for the team with five. The Chargers haven’t been great at putting pressure on quarterbacks either as they have the lowest blitz rate in the NFL at 15.2-percent. They’ve also given up a top-15 fantasy RB eight times this year and Zack Moss has 10 or more points in three of his last four games. Kalen Ballage has been quite good the last few weeks and the Bills are allowing 135 yards a game on the ground this year.
Las Vegas (6-4) at Atlanta (3-7)
Can we say track meet? This game has the makings of an absolute aerial assault. Both teams allow a ton of yardage through the air and the Falcons have allowed a top-four fantasy QB in two straight games while the Raiders are allowing the fifth-most passing yards a game on their own. Derek Carr is coming off perhaps his best game of the season against Kansas City last weekend and he currently is one of three quarterbacks to rank in the top-five of completion percentage and passer rating. Nelson Agholor could be a sneaky play this week with five deep touchdowns this year, tied for most in the league, and Atlanta is one of the worst teams on deep balls based on DVOA.
Baltimore (6-4) at Pittsburgh (10-0)
This game was moved from Thanksgiving night to Sunday afternoon. This comes in as one of the more defensive games on paper as both teams are top-seven in DVOA and top-10 in fewest yards allowed. Pittsburgh has turned into a pass heavy offense the last several weeks as they just haven’t been rushing it very well and only 40.2-percent of their plays are runs but that may change this week as Baltimore is allowing 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground and hasn’t been able to practice in person this week due to Covid. The Baltimore rushing attack is the staple of its offense with a sometimes four-headed monster in the backfield with Lamar Jackson , Mark Ingram , J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards involved but now that Ingram and Dobbins are positive for Covid, at least as of this writing, the game plan may fall more on the shoulder of Jackson than the legs of the four members of the backfield. Baltimore also needs a win to stay in contact with the AFC playoff picture while Pittsburgh winning would give them a big lead in the division and would hold the number-one seed. Diontae Johnson could be in line for a big game as the Ravens rank 25th in DVOA against the number-two wide receiver this year though Baltimore has given up just five total touchdowns to wideouts this year.
San Francisco (4-6) at Los Angeles (7-3)
Depending on who’s on the field for the Niners this game could have a completely different feel and flow to it. There are reports that some key players are starting to come back this week like Arik Armstead and Hroniss Grasu plus Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuels may or may not be back. The Rams defense has continued to go under the radar but is a top-five unit across the board but interestingly it has come down to what opposing defenses have done to Jared Goff that’s most determined their winning chances. If the opponent has pressured at less than 20-percent of the time, the Rams are 3-0 but just 4-3 when they pressure over 20-percent. This will likely be a defensive showdown again but there are some interesting streaks to pay attention to in that San Fran is 1-12 since 2014 with nine or more days of rest before a game but they are 4-3 against Los Angeles since 2017, the only team who’s beaten them more than twice.
New Orleans (8-1) at Denver (4-6)
This is an interesting game from a match-up standpoint as New Orleans historically hasn’t done well outside of domes when Drew Brees at QB but Taysom Hill is at the helm now so that may change that. What else changed for New Orleans last week was a drop in target share for Alvin Kamara as he was targeted on 10-percent of routes last week compared to the mid-30s in weeks 1-10. This game is likely more about the Saints defense against the struggling Broncos offense than anything else as the Broncos have turned the ball over 23 times so far, the most in the NFL, while the Saints in the last five games have averaged 2.0 turnovers a game while holding teams to 14.4 PPG.
Kansas City (9-1) at Tampa Bay (7-4)
A potential preview of the Super Bowl, at least that’s how the betting before the season was shaping up, and certainly the match-up with the most juice leading into it. There is clearly a ton of firepower taking the field on offense on both sides and both teams are in the top-five passing offenses in the league, however this may just come down to who can make the most big plays and that should favor the Chiefs as Tom Brady is 0-19 with three picks on passes with at least 20 air yards in the last four weeks and the Chiefs are a top-two defense against deep passes according to DVOA. However some things in Tampa’s favor is that Brady is 4-0 in his career when facing the reigning Super Bowl champions including in the playoffs and the Buccaneers have gotten things done close to the goal line with eight of Mike Evans ’ nine touchdowns this year coming inside the 10-yard line.
Chicago (5-5) at Green Bay (7-3)
At this point, you may have noticed that the Bears are the only team in the league this week at a perfect .500 record. They get the Sunday Night draw against their long-time rivals in Green Bay which is surprisingly a game against the teams calling the most and 20th-most passing plays a game and the most belongs to Chicago. That’s not to say it’s a been an effective offense for the Bears as they average the second-fewest yards per game and second-fewest points per game so far. While the Bears defense has been good this year and has only allowed one individual 100-yard rusher, Aaron Rodgers has had the Bears number going 9-2 against them since 2014 and is coming in hot with 70-percent completion rate and 300-plus yards a game in three straight games. While the Packers haven’t been great against the rush this year, the Chicago rushing game’s longest rush in the last two games came from Barkevious Mingo on a fake punt for 11 yards.
Seattle (7-3) at Philadelphia (3-6-1)
On paper, this looks like one of the bigger mismatches of the week as the Eagles have struggled quite a lot this year, at least on offense, while the Seahawks only real trouble has been stopping people on defense, though they’ve gotten better of late. Some key match-ups here are the fact that Carson Wentz has been sacked the most in the league and the Seahawks have posted 13 sacks since acquiring Carlos Dunlap and Seattle ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in points allowed to tight ends while Wentz throws to the position 10.2 times a game which is the most in the NFL. Philadelphia, with a win, would still be in first place in the NFC East no matter what happens between Washington and Dallas and whether or not the Giants beat the Bengals and while Russell Wilson has only lost once to a team with three or fewer wins after Week 10 since 2014, Seattle is 2-3 on the road this year and both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have failed to hit 90 yards receiving in the last two games and Philadelphia is solid against the pass with 209.3 yards allowed a game, ranking sixth-best in the league.