There are only a few weeks left in the Fantasy Football regular season for most of us but it’s still time to make moves toward the playoffs and picking the right match-ups to play against can be critical this time of the season.
Make sure to keep up-to-date with all of the latest in Covid-19 news ahead of lineup locks with the Fantasy Alarm Live Covid Blog.
As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Bye Weeks: Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, New York (Jets),
Match-Up Breakdowns
Indianapolis at Tennessee
This game is nearly a pick ‘em in Vegas books or has been fluctuating between one team favored by one or the other favored by one. It should be a defensive showing for the Colts after they shut down the Ravens to a degree last week. In terms of the Titans getting pressure on the Colts that might be tough as the Colts have only allowed seven sacks on Phillip Rivers this season. Rivers hasn’t been great through the air this year and it’s not like he’s got top-flight weapons at his disposal despite the fact that this is a good match-up fantasy-wise for opposing offenses against Tennessee. Derrick Henry has typically done well once the calendar flips to November as we mentioned last week but he had a paltry 67 yards on the ground last week and now gets a tough rushing defense this week who’s only allowing 83.6 yards a game to this point in Indianapolis.
Philadelphia at New York
The Eagles are now in sole possession of first place of the NFC East by a game and a half and are still under .500 on the season. The Eagles have won eight straight games against the Giants and they’re looking to extend that streak and NFC East lead some more. The Giants are averaging the second-fewest points per game this season ahead of only the Jets. The numbers have been rough for both teams this year on offense as injuries and poor play have really dropped the teams’ efficiency and production but now they are both seeming to get healthier each week, especially the Eagles. One interesting note is that Daniel Jones is averaging 8.0 yards per carry, the second-most in a season in the last 30 years only behind Michael Vick.
Jacksonville at Green Bay
This is the biggest line of the weekend and for good reason. The Jaguars aren’t good on defense as they allow top-six points in fantasy per game to Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Tight Ends. They rank 32nd in DVOA and 31st in Yards per Game and Yards per Play and Pass Yards per Attempt. The Packers offense is rolling right now in the passing game and the rushing game with Aaron Rodgers , Aaron Jones , and Davante Adams all being top options at their positions. Jake Luton got away with some terrible passes in last week’s game but that was a bad Texans’ defense and the Packers have been a better unit this year with the only real issue being against the run and that means James Robinson could be heavily used in an attempt to keep the Packers’ formidable offense off the field.
Washington at Lions
The Football Team as they’ve come to be known has turned back to Alex Smith at this point in the season as Dwayne Haskins is on the outs and Kyle Allen has now undergone surgery to repair a major ankle injury. Smith nearly brought the team back to a win last week against the Giants and now he gets the Lions’ only somewhat decent pass defense. Alex Smith is 5-0 in his career against the Lions but that was with better teams around him than he currently has in Washington, though they have an advantage in the running game as Antonio Gibson has posted double-digit points in six of his last seven games and the Detroit rush defense allows the most points to running backs this year. Stafford hasn’t been great of late, as he’s dealt with Covid and an unhealthy Kenny Golladay , and the Washington defense allows the fewest passing yards a game to this point.
Houston at Cleveland
The Browns have either scored 30 or more points or seven or fewer points in each game this year with no in between. Deshaun Watson currently has the highest QB rating in the Super Bowl Era for any quarterback on a losing team. Houston’s defense has been atrocious against the run this year allowing nearly 160 yards a game on the ground and the Browns rank fourth in percentage of run plays called, fifth in rush yards a game at 150, and fourth in yards per attempts at 5.0. This could be a game in which Cleveland plays keep away from Watson and Will Fuller who has caught at least one touchdown in six straight games.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
These two teams had differing weeks to be sure last week as the Bucs were trounced at home by the Saints in primetime and the Panthers gave the defending Super Bowl champs all they could handle. That came at cost for the Panthers though as they’ve lost Christian McCaffrey for at least this week. Tampa’s offense has struggled with the big plays of late as Brady is 3-for-28 on deep passes (20+ air yards) since Week 5 and all three completions came against Las Vegas. Not to mention that Ronald Jones has just 40 yards in each of the last three games as well. Carolina hasn’t allowed a top-10 fantasy QB in five straight games including shutting down (to a degree) the explosive Chiefs passing game last week. While Tampa has a good pass defense, the Panthers are the only team in the league with three wide receivers with at least 30 touches and 400 yards from scrimmage which could make it tough for Tampa corners to shutdown the passing game.
Los Angeles at Miami
We get a match-up everyone thought would be coming but wasn’t necessarily sure it would. Two first-round picks in the most recent draft who have already shown to be quite good between Tagovailoa and Herbert both have had good games with Herbert posting at least 21 fantasy points in five straight games, a record in the Super Bowl era. The Chargers pass defense hasn’t been great of late and that could help the Dolphins out who also lost Preston Williams this week and Isiah Ford at the trade deadline. It’s a game full of streaks with the Dolphins winning four straight for the first time since 2016 and are 4-1 against teams outside the division and the Chargers have not been great in games decided by one possession but one of those streaks is likely going to have to end soon.
Denver at Las Vegas
When these division rivals meet up it’s typically gone in the Broncos way in 12 of the last 17 meetings. The Raiders defense is not good, not by any means, allowing the seventh-most points to quarterbacks this year and Carr has been decent enough, although a lot of the yards come from deep plays. The Broncos on the other hand have allowed a top-10 fantasy QB in four of their last five games. If the big plays come, which have been coming from Henry Ruggs, who has posted 192 of his 220 receiving yards on just four receptions this season, the Raiders can flip the script on the 5-12 record in the last 17 games.
Buffalo at Arizona
Buffalo is coming off a big win last week over the Seahawks and the Cardinals likely should’ve won against the Dolphins. Even with the loss though, the Cardinals are still averaging over 28 points a game and their offense has been strong with top-12 passing and rushing attacks (rushing is second-ranked) and their the second team since the 1970 merger to average that many points, over 250 yards passing, and over 125 yards rushing a game. That will test the Bills defense which has been up-and-down this year to be sure and even in the win last week allowed 34 points. The two quarterbacks and two top wide receivers for each team are having remarkably similar statistical seasons with Stefon Diggs actually outperforming DeAndre Hopkins at the moment. Though Diggs might be held in check this week as among the 20 teams that Diggs has faced multiple times in his career, the Cardinals are the only one to keep him at less than 100 yards each time.
San Francisco at New Orleans
What’s been typically thought of as a high-level NFC playoff match-up or NFC Title game the last few years, is now a match-up between two teams on different paths in 2020. The 49ers are critically hobbled by injuries and to prove just how taped together this offense is, five different players have led the Niners in scrimmage yards the last five weeks. The defense for the Niners hasn’t been great recently either allowing six total touchdowns to wide receivers in the last two games. Meanwhile, the Saints haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 46 straight games, the fifth longest such streak since 1950. Drew Brees and company are coming off a big win over the Buccaneers last week and just got their big wide receiver target back in Michael Thomas as well which gives the Niners already thinned out defense something else to worry about against a quarterback who has posted the highest passer rating allowed by the Niners of any quarterback in the NFL since 1950. One final thing here is that the Niners are 0-5 when allowing more than 24 points in a game and 4-0 when allowing fewer than 24 points a game.
Seattle at Los Angeles
This is the 10th time that a top-two scoring offense and top-two scoring defense has met in Week 10 or later since 2013 and in eight of the previous nine, the offense has won out. That would favor the Seahawks on the face of it. However, there are a few other things here to be mindful of with one being that the Seahawks defense isn’t nearly as good as they have been in the past as they’ve allowed more points and net passing yards in the first eight games this year than they did in all 16 games in their 2013 Super Bowl year. Jared Goff and the Rams are coming off a bye and in the last four times they’ve come off a bye Goff has thrown a total of one touchdown and four interceptions in those games after byes. Again though, these Seahawks aren’t the same and Cooper Kupp is in a great spot to keep his run of 11 or more fantasy points in six of the last seven games going as Seattle is allowing the most points to opposing wide receivers this year.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
This game got a whole lot more interesting earlier in the week when Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the Covid-19 list so it’s something we’re definitely going to want to watch. If it’s in fact Mason Rudolph at the helm, the numbers for the Steelers offense take a hit and the running game becomes more important which helps against a team like the Bengals who are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to that position so far. With Roethlisberger the last few seasons the Steelers have averaged 26.4 PPG and without him in the last few years they’ve averaged just over 18 points. While Joe Burrow has been lighting up opposing defense pretty well recently, the Steelers though are a far tougher match-up and the blitz and pressure are going to be a problem. The Steelers pressure quarterbacks more than any other team at nearly 45-percent and Burrow hasn’t thrown a touchdown against pressure this year. The Bengals also haven’t won a game the week following the bye week in the last four years.
Baltimore at New England
This has been one of the more interesting rivalries in the last few years as the Harbaugh-led Ravens and Belichick-led Patriots have often fought over playoff seeding or for wins in the playoffs. This year though, the Patriots are struggling quite a bit as Cam Newton just became the first Patriots quarterback to start four straight games without throwing a touchdown since Jim Plunkett in the mid-1970s. There are also a couple of streaks for the Ravens at stake here as they come in with 10 straight road wins and have scored 20 or more points in 31 straight games as well, an NFL record. The main match-up here is the Ravens averaging over 170 yards on the ground and the Patriots are allowing more than 130 yards on the ground on defense.
Minnesota at Chicago
Divisional rivalries in primetime can be electric, even when we’re talking about two teams who typically embody the three yards and a cloud of dust moniker. The Bears defense has been great this year allowing just one top-20 wideout performance and one individual 100-yard rusher. However, they are facing Dalvin Cook who’s been on fire the last few weeks and the Bears have allowed a touchdown in three straight games to tight ends and Irv Smith Jr. has posted 10 or more fantasy points in three of the last four games this year. While Kirk Cousins has not yet won a Monday Night Football game (0-9) and the Vikings are 4-16 on the road against the Bears since 2000, There’s still a shot that a strong running game from the Vikings can overcome the Allen Robinson upside facing the defense allowing the second-most points to WRs.