As is the case each week, we’ll break down each match-up with 33 different stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Stats
- PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
- T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
- Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
- Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
- Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
- Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
- Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
- Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
- Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
- Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Stats
- Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
- Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
- Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
- Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
- Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
- Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
- Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
- Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
- Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
- Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Advanced Stats
- Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
- Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
- Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
- RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
- RZ% Allowed - Percentage of Opponent Red Zone Trips Resulting In A Touchdown (1-least allowed, 32-most allowed)
- Total DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
- Pass DVOA - DVOA Against Just Pass Plays Negative Numbers Are Better (1-best, 32-worst)
- Rush DVOA - DVOA Against Just Rush Plays Negative Numbers Are Better (1-best, 32-worst)
- DVOA vs Pos - DVOA against those specific skill positions (1-best, 32-worst)
Player News
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports there are “multiple people in the league who believe the new regime is not so high on Travis Etienne.”
Fowler also noted Tank Bigsby’s fumbling issue but didn’t directly relate that to the feelings of the new brain trust in Jacksonville. The Jags clearly felt they were lacking at running back this offseason and addressed that opening via the draft with Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round and LeQuint Allen in the seventh. The pair of additions complicate an already-messy backfield by committee. Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is a long-shot to be brought back in 2026. The Jags could opt to move on early by trading him, clearing $6.1 million in cap space in the process. If the team does trade Etienne, Tuten would likely be the team’s top back in the long run, making him a high-upside bet in early fantasy drafts.
Broncos signed third-round pick WR Pat Bryant to a four-year contract.
The deal includes $1.4 million guaranteed and is worth $6.6 million in total. Sean Payton compared aspects of Bryant’s game to those of Michael Thomas in his post-draft press conference and there are at least a few similarities in their profiles. Bryant stands at 6'2/204 and ran a 4.61-second Forty at the combine. Thomas measured in at 6'3/212 and clocked a 4.57-second Forty. Though the two have similar physical characteristics, Thomas was known for his proficiency from the slot while Bryant primarily played on the outside as a field-stretcher at Illinois. Bryant’s transition to slot duties may take some time, but third-round draft capital makes him worth a shot in dynasty leagues.
Colts EDGE Samson Ebukam (Achilles) said he is expected to be cleared for training camp.
Ebukam suffered a torn Achilles in training camp last year and did not play in the 2024 season. He broke out in 2023 with a career-high 9.5 sacks in his first season with the Colts. He now has one year left on his deal and will be looking for a rebound season as he stares down free agency in 2026
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports the Steelers are “counting on” a 2025 jump for WR Roman Wilson.
Wilson, per Fowler, “looks like a different player than from his injury riddled rookie campaign.” Steelers general manager Omar Khan said in February that the team has “a lot of confidence” in Wilson, the 84th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft who played just five offensive snaps as a rookie after suffering a serious hamstring injury in October. Wilson, entering his age-24 season, had 789 yards and 12 touchdowns on 49 catches in his final season at Michigan. He was 19th among all college wideouts in yards per route run in 2023. An injury-free offseason could position Wilson as the clear No. 2 receiver behind DK Metcalf in 2025.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports the Steelers “remain in contact with Aaron Rodgers and are hopeful that he’ll be a Steeler.”
Things have been quiet on the Rodgers front since the NFL Draft, though he remains a factor for the QB-needy Steelers, who on Wednesday traded George Pickens to Dallas in exchange for draft picks. That leaves DK Metcalf and perhaps Roman Wilson as the Steelers’ top two receivers. Metcalf’s fantasy fortunes would get a bit of a bump if Rodgers lands with the Steelers. The team’s commitment to a massively run-heavy approach should limit Metcalf’s upside, however. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio suggested Rodgers is waiting to sign with Pittsburgh until after the NFL’s schedule release “so that the league can’t saddle the Steelers with extra prime-time and/or short-week games.” We’ll continue to monitor the never-ending Rodgers saga.