One of the things I have learned from writing this article over the years is that when the targets do not match the production, trust the targets. There are obviously exceptions, like when the targets are coming from Nick Foles , but in general guys receivers struggle to produce consistently on only a handful of targets per week. On the other hand, where the targets go, fantasy production usually follows. That is particularly important to keep in mind as we look at some of the stand out receiving performances from the past week.
Jerry Jeudy was second in targets for the week to Tyreek Hill , and he now has 24 targets in his last two games. Twelve of Jeudy’s 14 targets came in the second half after Denver was already trailing by two touchdowns, and Atlanta has been a great matchup for opposing receivers all season. That being said, its nice to see Jeudy getting the lion’s share of the targets even with K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick both healthy. I don’t want to rely on any Denver receiver for fantasy right now, but I think Jeudy needs to be rostered, and his recent play makes me feel a lot better about his career prospects, if nothing else.
We probably shouldn’t draw any conclusions about D.J. Chark ’s fantasy prospects with Jake Luton at quarterback, though Chark’s seven receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets were certainly encouraging. Houston’s defense certainly deserves some of the credit for that performance, and that might be the last time Jacksonville plays a below-average defense this season. All that being said, there is no reason to believe Luton is significantly worse than Gardner Minshew, and with his big arm, he might very well be an improvement. Chark is too good to bench for fantasy so long as he is getting somewhat competent quarterback play, and I think he’ll probably get that from Luton going forward.
Mike Williams caught five of seven targets for 81 yards Sunday, and the two balls he didn’t catch, while not technically drops, were in his hands in the end zone. The Chargers’ other end zone targets went to Huntry Henry and someone named Donald Parham, though none were caught. It was Williams’s fourth game with at least seven targets, and while he is as volatile as any WR3, I think his weekly ceiling is higher than many of the guys ranked around him most weeks.
It is too soon to worry about DeAndre Hopkins ? He is still sixth in fantasy points among wide receivers, but he has three receptions or fewer in two of his last three games. He’s obviously still a must-start, especially considering his upcoming schedule, but at this point I think we have to say he has a lower floor than guys like Tyreek Hill , Davante Adams , Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen . I think every WR1 is potentially a sell-high just given the nature of the position, but I think DeAndre Hopkins would be at the top of the list after Kyler Murray targeted him just three times Sunday.
I have seen some consternation that Terry McLaurin will suffer with Alex Smith at quarterback for Washington, but for at least one game, that wasn’t the case. I think McLaurin is even better than D.J. Chark , and since we have seen him produce for fantasy with three different quarterbacks this season, I am not at all worried about him going forward. McLaurin caught seven of eight targets for 115 yards and a touchdown Sunday, and if Alex Smith can return at all to his pre-injury form, I think there is a chance McLaurin is actually better off going forward.
D.J. Moore had just two receptions for the second consecutive game, this time on a season-low three targets. Curtis Samuel , meanwhile, had a season-high nine targets, catching all nine for 105 yards and a touchdown. On some level, I think D.J. Moore is too good to not be the WR2 on this team. I gave up on him about a month ago, and he rattled off 93 receiving yards in three consecutive games, with three touchdowns in that span. That being said, Curtis Samuel has at least five targets in four straight games. That combined with his 2.75 carries per game, gives Samuel a floor that Moore cannot match. Moore had season-highs in targets, receptions and yards against Tampa Bay in Week 2, so I don’t think I’m ready to bench him just yet.
Jacobi Meyers has 22 targets over the last two weeks, tied with Travis Kelce and Jerry Jeudy for fourth place. Meyers has been the Patriots’ only semi-competent receiver since the bye, and that has some fantasy value. I hate the matchup against Baltimore and I think there’s a chance Isaiah Ford eats into his playing time, but its hard to argue with Meyers as a low-end WR3, even if he is basically just a poor-man’s Jamison Crowder . On the one hand, we can blame his lack of involvement in the passing game on working his way back from injury. On the other hand, this was this first game Crowder, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman all played together, with the latter two combining for 17 targets. I think I would rather own both Perriman and Mims, though Crowder could still be usable following the Jets’ Week 10 bye.
Speaking of Crowder, he caught both of his targets in his return from a groin injury, but salvaged his fantasy day with his third touchdown of the season.
Nelson Agholor has five receiving touchdowns on the season, and the state of wide receivers dictates I cannot tell you not to roster or start him. He has at least 13.5 fantasy points in four of his last five games, and not many guys can make that claim. That being said, Agholor is 133rd in receiving targets, tied with Willie Snead , David Moore , Drew Sample and a handful of running backs. Even if we only take the previously mentioned five-game sample, he is 106th in targets. It is nearly impossible for a receiver to remain relevant for fantasy on so few targets, especially with a 68 percent catch rate. Anyone who has ever rooted for the Eagles or rostered him for fantasy knows how this ends.
I think Will Fuller is basically the good version of Nelson Agholor . Fuller has touchdowns in six consecutive games and while I think he is good, I also don’t necessarily expect it to continue. Fuller has always had what has seemed like an unsustainably high touchdown/game ratio, so maybe my skepticism is misplaced, but if I could get Top-10 WR value for Fuller, I think I would trade him.
I’ve been an Evan Engram apologist for a long time, going back to the days when he would be great for fantasy whenever Odell Beckham was hurt. Last season, Engram couldn’t stay on the field and this season, he can’t catch anything, though I think Daniel Jones deserves a lot of the blame for that. Engram is third among tight ends in targets and fifth in receptions but he is ninth in receiving yards and has just one touchdown. Engram has at least five receptions, nine targets and 46 yards in three straight games, making him a solid start in Week 10. Engram has actually been at his best when Sterling Shepard is active, which seems counterintuitive, but at the very least, we have to ride Engram’s current hot streak.
Hopefully you were able to sell high on Mark Andrews a few weeks ago. I was not, and now I’m looking at the prospect of benching him for Dallas Goedert . Andrews has always been touchdown dependent, and with Baltimore’s offense looking decidedly less scary than it was in 2019, Andrews’s fantasy production has suffered. Andrews is 14th in targets among tight ends and tied for second in touchdowns, so he definitely needs to be on rosters, and most teams probably need to start him. That being said, I might look to trade him if he scores once or twice against New England.
I tend to think receiver/cornerback matchups are vastly overstated. For every example where a cornerback shuts down a receiver, there are plenty of examples where the receiver is able to get open, either by getting matched up with someone else or beating zone coverage or actually beating the corner fantasy managers were afraid of. The one case where I think I would be willing the cornerback matchup is Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore . In each of the three games they’ve faced each other, Evans has zero catches on two targets. Evans still led the Bucs in receiving yards with 64 on four receptions (six targets), which illustrates my point. I don’t trust any Bucs receivers right now, though if Chris Godwin is healthy, you probably have to start him. Evans and Antonio Brown are more borderline, but I think they are both strong DFS plays. One or both of them is going to pop off for a huge game sooner than later.
Player News
Jaguars released WR Gabe Davis.
Davis, who secured $24 million in guarantees when he signed with Jacksonville last year, managed 20 catches for 239 yards and two touchdowns over ten games in his only year with the Jags. The Davis signing is yet another in a string of disastrous decisions by the former Jacksonville front office. With Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter in the fold, the Jaguars ended their experiment with Davis, 26. He should see interest from wideout-needy teams in the coming weeks, including perhaps the Lions. Davis will be locked into a strictly downfield role wherever he lands this spring or summer.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reports WR Allen Lazard is “in play” to sign with the Steelers.
Lazard has followed Aaron Rodgers from the Packers to the Jets, and now possibly to Pittsburgh if Rodgers decides to sign there and play again in 2025. Lazard had 29 catches over seven games with Rodgers under center for the Jets in 2024. He had been a healthy scratch for much of the 2023 season, which Rodgers missed with an Achilles injury. “The possibility hinges largely if not entirely on Rodgers signing with the Steelers,” Florio said. “While nothing with Rodgers is ever done until it’s done, the persistent thinking continues to be that it will happen.” Lazard would likely operate as the No. 2 wideout in Pittsburgh behind DK Metcalf. The team’s run heaviness and resulting dearth of targets would make it difficult for Lazard to be fantasy relevant in 2025.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Cowboys are finalizing a trade for Steelers WR George Pickens.
The move, which includes a 2026 third round pick and a 2027 fifth round pick sent to the Steelers, comes after another ESPN report saying Pickens, 24, wanted to remain in Pittsburgh. Acquiring Pickens — who has 2,841 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over three NFL seasons — addresses an area of acute need for the Cowboys, who have one of the league’s weakest wideout room behind CeeDee Lamb. Pickens and Lamb will make for one of the NFL’s best receiver duos, with Pickens functioning as a viable downfield threat for Dak Prescott, who last season ranked 15th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in deep ball accuracy. Pickens in 2024 was third in deep targets and second only to Alec Pierce in receiving yards on downfield receptions. Pickens will have far more upside in the Dallas offense than he did in Pittsburgh. DK Metcalf, meanwhile, will enter the 2025 season as the unquestioned No. 1 wideout for the run-heavy Steelers. His fantasy prospects look much brighter with Pickens in Dallas.
NFL Network’s Jane Slater reports Saints QB Derek Carr wants to “see if he can play through with this shoulder injury.”
Slater reports that Carr believes he injured his throwing shoulder in the same Week 14 game against the Giants that he injured his left wrist last season. The shoulder issue was apparently discovered as he ramped up throwing in the spring, not as the season wound down in 2024. Carr has already had surgery on that arm and wants to see if he can play through the injury. Slater adds that Carr made two trips to New Orleans to meet with the team doctor and a decision will be made “sooner rather than later” as the 34-year-old tries to make the best decision for his shoulder and the Saints aim to make the best decision for their franchise. It would be a surprise to see Carr return to start for the Saints, especially without having surgery. New Orleans has signaled an attempt to move on by selecting Tyler Shough in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Carr has two seasons left on his four-year, $150 million contract with the Saints and a decision on his future is looming.
9News’ Mike Klis reports free agent QB Desmond Ridder will get a veteran tryout at the Broncos’ rookie minicamp.
Ridder is a former third-round pick of the Falcons in 2022 and started 13 games for them in 2023. Atlanta moved on from Ridder after his 12-touchdown, 12-interception season; he joined the Raiders to play six games and start one in 2024. The 25-year-old is searching for backup jobs around the NFL after throwing for 5.4 yards per attempt and earning a 45.7 PFF grade last season, good for No. 69 out of 75 quarterbacks. The Broncos will bring him into rookie minicamp on a tryout basis, where Ridder looks to earn the chance to compete with Sam Ehlinger for the third-string quarterback spot in Denver.
Bengals DT B.J. Hill was seen in a protective boot at Tuesday’s voluntary workout.
Hill was seen in a protective walking boot for his left foot at the Bengals’ voluntary workout session on Tuesday. It seems to be a new injury for the veteran, though it is not yet clear what the injury is. The Bengals just signed Hill to a three-year, $33 million contract in the offseason and will be hoping one of the investments into their defense gets healthy for the start of the regular season.