Week 1 is simultaneously the week when we learn the most, but also the week when we have to be the most careful of drawing concrete conclusions. In Week 1 of 2019, John Ross and Danny Amendola were tied for seventh with 12 targets. Sammy Watkins had 11, three of which went for touchdowns. KeeSean Johnson and Donte Moncrief had 10 targets each.
That being said, there were several notable receivers who had a surprising number of targets in Week 1. Let’s take a look at some of the more notable target numbers from Week 1, with an eye towards what we expect going forward.
Of the 10 players who had 10+ targets Week 1, Odell Beckham Jr. was certainly the quietest. I still think he’s good, and he clearly has a better matchup this week against the Bengals, but in my mind, this is his last chance to prove he doesn’t belong in the WR3 morass.
Austin Ekeler only had one target Sunday, and while he will almost certainly get more targets in Week 2, I think the dreams of Ekeler averaging eight targets per game, like he did in the first five games in 2019, are not coming to fruition. I think the best we can hope for at this point is that Ekeler repeats his numbers from when Melvin Gordon was active in 2019, but even that might be too much to hope for while TyRod Taylor is the quarterback. Its too soon to panic, especially if you spent a high second-round pick on him, but I’m not optimistic.
JuJu Smith-Schuster made his fantasy week with two touchdowns, but Dionte Johnson led the team with 10 targets and matched JuJu with six receptions. Smith-Schuster is starting to prove he can be a viable fantasy starter without Antonio Brown on the other side of the field, but I still think Johnson has a chance to be the better fantasy play by the end of the season.
Laviska Shenault saw four targets, but that number looks better when you consider Gardner Minshew only threw the ball 20 times. I think the claims that Gardner Minshew would Blake Bortles this team to fantasy relevance had very little basis in reality but at the same time, even the most conservative offenses will throw the ball nearly 30 times per game. I’m not in a hurry to add Shenault, but he bears watching.
Parris Campbell saw nine targets Sunday, and while I think there is a decent chance Philip Rivers and this offense simply are not good, I also think there is a decent chance Campbell is the most valuable receiver on this team. I think we’ll learn a lot this week against a young (and probably not very good) Vikings secondary, but I would look to stash Campbell on my bench if he is still available in your league.
Corey Davis did not have a single game with eight targets, seven receptions or 100 yards last season; he reached all of those numbers in Week 1. Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries both had seven targets, and A.J. Brown had eight himself, but Davis’s performance is still noteworthy. This passing offense probably isn’t going to be good enough to support two receivers, but Davis wouldn’t be the first high draft pick to finally figure it out after three bad seasons. He probably belongs on your watch list at this point.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was second on the Packers in targets, receptions and yards. MVS had a couple of terrible drops, but you could do far worse for a bench option than Aaron Rodgers ’s deep threat.
Dallas Goedert led all tight ends in targets in Week 1 despite probably not being the best tight end on his own team. We haven’t had two fantasy starters at tight end on the same team since the Patriots of nearly a decade ago, but I think Goedert and Ertz are good enough to change that. The Eagles don’t have much at receiver with Alshon Jeffery out, and Goedert is a fantasy starter until further notice.
Logan Thomas led all Football Team players in targets with eight, and he caught Dwayne Haskins’s lone touchdown pass. Thomas is startable in deep leagues and DFS, and he bears watching in shallow leagues.
I never quite understood why it was just accepted that Stefon Diggs would be significantly worse for fantasy in Buffalo than he was in Minnesota. It seemed clear on Sunday that Josh Allen still is not a good passer, but it is not clear that he is significantly worse than Kirk Cousins . Diggs’s average depth of target Sunday was 10.33, down from 15.56 last season, but I’m not particularly concerned. Diggs is a WR2 at worst right now, while John Brown , who also had eight targets in Week 1, is a WR3.
Conspicuously absent from our target leaderboard is Tyler Higbee . Higbee’s supporters are clinging to his snap count to support starting him in Week 2, but I’m not sure it matters if he’s on the field if he’s only getting four targets. I think you probably have to hold onto Higbee, but I would try to add another tight end with some upside in case Higbee is in fact the player we saw last season before Gerald Everett got hurt.
Robbie Anderson was sixth in yards per reception among players with at least six targets in Week 1. He was inconsistent at best with the Jets, but its beginning to look like that was more about the Jets and less about Anderson. D.J. Moore still led the Panthers in targets, but Anderson looks like he has a chance to be just as good for fantasy.