NFL Target Analysis: Week 1

After months of speculation about offenses and roles, we finally have a week’s worth of data with which to evaluate the NFL’s pass catchers. In case you are new to this article, each week we will look at the NFL Targets leader board, as well as highlight noteworthy target totals from the previous week. While the main focus is targets, we are sure to watch the players in an attempt to value those targets. After all, 10 targets for Keenan Allen will look vastly different than 10 targets for Tarik Cohen .

Analysis

• We will get to some of the target leaders in a bit, but the most noteworthy target totals were the players who got fewer targets than expected. Tyler Lockett , Eric Ebron , Hunter Renfrow, Stefon Diggs , Jack Doyle , Anthony Miller , Dante Pettis , Adam Thielen , Will Fuller , Josh Gordon and Corey Davis all had three targets or fewer. I think we can split them into three different categories.
• Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen will be just fine. They were seventh and 10th in targets last season, and they don’t have a third wide receiver or a prominent tight end to steal targets. Even if Minnesota only throws the ball 500 times this season instead of 600, Diggs and Thielen will almost certainly top 100 targets.
• I’m a bit worried about Tyler Lockett , Josh Gordon and Will Fuller . All three have big play ability, and they all have a lot of competition for receptions. None should be dropped, but if you were hoping for more consistent play from any of these three, that hope has to be diminished after Week 1.
• I don’t think you have to drop Eric Ebron , Hunter Renfrow, Jack Doyle , Anthony Miller , Dante Pettis and Corey Davis , but you certainly can. I would probably look to hold onto Miller, Pettis and Davis, but for different reasons. I’m willing to forgive Miller because he sprained his ankle in training camp, and Green Bay’s defense looked awfully good. Corey Davis may get dropped outright for his teammate A.J. Brown, but Brown played about half as many snaps as Davis and only had one more target. Also, I’m awfully stubborn, which is probably the only reason to hold onto Pettis. I still think he’s a good player, but I suppose that doesn’t matter if his coach doesn’t feel that same way.
• On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Jamison Crowder led the league with 17 targets, catching 14 for 99 yards. Crowder looks like exactly the same player he was in Washington when healthy. Assuming Adam Gase doesn’t become more aggressive in his play-calling, Crowder should have a high floor in PPR leagues, but there is no reason to think we will get many big plays or touchdowns.
• Evan Engram had 14 targets, catching 11 for 116 yards and a touchdown. Engram averaged 7.8 targets per game with Odell Beckham Jr. out the last two years, and I think that should be closer to your expectations most weeks, especially when Golden Tate returns. That being said, Engram certainly looks like he belongs in the second tier of tight ends going forward.
• Drops may be the most overrated statistic in football. Want to know how I know? DeAndre Hopkins had three drops Monday after he went 15 games and 144 targets without a drop in 2018. So, did Hopkins’s hands get worse during the offseason? And even if they did, does it matter? Let’s say we knew for sure Hopkins’s would lead the league in drops. Michael Crabtree led the league in drops with 11 last season. If we give Hopkins eight drops the rest of the way, does that change the way the Texans use him? Almost certainly not. Maybe it would lower our projections for Hopkins’s production for the rest of the season, but not enough to take him out of obvious WR1, must-start territory. Even with the three drops, Hopkins finished fourth in fantasy points for the week, and no reasonable fantasy player will complain about the three drops.
• Just to show drops aren’t always overrated, John Ross had three of his own. Again, fantasy players won’t complain about the drops after he caught seven of 12 targets for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Ross looked awfully good aside from the drops, and there is reason to hope this is a sign of things to come in new head coach Zac Taylor’s offense. That being said, things may be different now that opposing defenses know they have to account for Ross. We also have no idea how the targets will be distributed when A.J. Green comes back.
• Jamison Crowder has gotten most of the attention, but you could argue Danny Amendola was even more impressive. Amendola had a 9.75 average depth of target compared to just 2.07 for Crowder. The Lions had an entire extra period to rack up stats, but 12 targets is still worth noticing. I doubt this offense is good enough to support even three pass catchers, and I doubt Amendola will surpass Kenny Golladay , Marvin Jones or T.J. Hockenson in the receiving pecking order, but I’ll keep an eye on him in Week 2.