NFL Snap Counts Breakdown: Week 16

Week 16 is in the books – hopefully you won your championships in your real leagues and are at least still in the hunt in whatever weird leagues you may have left where Week 17 matters.  I know we like to joke about the importance (or lack-there-of) of Week 17 but there are some of us who do have two week championships, play daily fantasy, or simply enjoy the strategy of trying to work around players being rested so we’re here to do what we’ve done all year – break down some snap counts and give you our best bet at what you can expect for this week. 

As teams will sometimes sit players Week 17 if the week doesn’t affect their playoff seeding, we have included an extra note for playoff teams to let you know whether you are at risk of having guys sit and the risk level.  This will be reflected in the “locked in” vs “risky” designations as well.

For those of you who have tagged along for the snap count articles, thanks again for following and we look forward to helping you win your leagues again next year.  Happy Holidays!

49ers

*Playoff team* – no risk as they will be battling the Seahawks for the division Sunday night*

• Locked In: George Kittle , Emmanuel Sanders , Deebo Samuel
• Risky: Raheem Mostert

Bears

• Locked In: Allen Robinson , Anthony Miller
• Risky: David Montgomery , Tarik Cohen (once again, another potentially negative game script game could see more Tarik Cohen and less David Montgomery )

Bengals

• Locked In: Joe Mixon , Tyler Boyd , John Ross
• Risky: Tyler Eifert

Bills

*Playoff Team* - moderate risk to high risk as the Bills are locked in to the fifth seed and cannot improve their standing with a win.  Reports are that the starters will all play but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will play the whole game.

• Locked In:(all players at risk of sitting second half)
• Risky:John Brown , Cole Beasley , Devin Singletary , Dawson Knox

Broncos

• Locked In: Courtland Sutton
• Risky: Noah Fant (three weeks in a row now around 50% of the snaps has him listed as risky but he’s still a big part of the offense, much like the timeshare RBs so could be worth a play), Phillip Lindsay (worth noting Lindsay needs 42 yards to hit the coveted 1,000 yard mark), Royce Freeman

Browns

• Locked In: Odell Beckham Jr (needs 46 yards to reach 1,000 yard mark so we can imagine he will campaign the coaching staff to reach the milestone), Jarvis Landry
• Risky: Nick Chubb , Kareem Hunt (in what will likely be a positive game script game this week, Nick Chubb could see additional work though, with no playoff implications, the Browns may also continue to “try out” Kareem Hunt to see if they want to re-sign him or not.  Clearly both will play so both carry risk.)

Buccaneers

• Locked In: Breshad Perriman , Justin Watson , O.J. Howard
• Risky: Ronald Jones , Dare Ogunbawale, (hard to trust any RB in this offense but Barber hardly played last week so Jones could be an interesting play as they continue to kick the tires on him in a lost year) Cameron Brate

Cardinals

• Locked In: Christian Kirk , Larry Fitzgerald , Kenyan Drake
• Risky: David Johnson (see no reason for them to use David Johnson with him under contract for two more years and Drake on an expiring deal)

Chargers

• Locked In: Keenan Allen , Hunter Henry , Mike Williams
• Risky: Melvin Gordon , Austin Ekeler (the usage was split practically down the middle this week with each getting seven carries and five catches)

Chiefs

*Playoff Team* - minimal risk – the Chiefs not only could move up to the two seed with a win and a Patriots loss but they could fall to the four seed with a loss and a Texans win.  If they go up big however then players could ride the pine in the fourth.

• Locked In:Travis Kelce , Tyreek Hill
• Risky:Damien Williams (with McCoy inactive last week he saw a lot of work and Spencer Ware has a banged up shoulder), Sammy Watkins

Colts

• Locked In:Jack Doyle , Marlon Mack , Zach Pascal , T.Y. Hilton
• Risky:Marcus Johnson

Cowboys

*Playoff Team* -No Risk.The Cowboys need to beat the Redskins and they also need the Eagles to lose to the Giants.  Those games are both on the same afternoon slate so the Cowboys won’t be holding anything back.

• Locked In:Ezekiel Elliott , Amari Cooper , Michael Gallup , Jason Witten
• Risky: Randall Cobb

Dolphins

• Locked In:DeVante Parker , Mike Gesicki
• Risky:Patrick Laird (the team clearly has some interest in seeing what they have in Myles Gaskin)

Eagles

*Playoff Team* - No Risk.The Eagles need to beat the Giants to make the playoffs (or could back door their way in via a Cowboys loss though both games will be simultaneous)

• Locked In:Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert , (Ertz has broken ribs.  He may try to tough it out but, if the Eagles are winning easily or they get word that the Cowboys are getting blown out, there is no way he plays a heavy snap share).
• Risky:Zach Ertz , JJ Arcega-Whiteside (he’s dealt with a foot injury that he played with but inevitably ended up back in the locker room. With limited options, he’ll likely give it a go again).

Falcons

• Locked In:Julio Jones , Austin Hooper , Devonta Freeman
• Risky:Christian Blake , Russell Gage

Giants

• Locked In:Saquon Barkley , Sterling Shepard , Darius Slayton, Golden Tate , Kaden Smith
• Risky:None (consolidated snap share)

Jaguars

• Locked In:Leonard Fournette , D.J. Chark , Chris Conley , Dede Westbrook
• Risky:Keelan Cole (only plays in four wide which they do run often compared to some teams)

Jets

• Locked In:LeVeon Bell, Robby Anderson , Jamison Crowder
• Risky:Vyncint Smith (as long asDemaryius Thomas is out, he will play a large snap share), Daniel Brown

Lions

• Locked In:Kenny Golladay , Danny Amendola
• Risky:Kerryon Johnson (returned last week but touches were split better four backs)

Packers

*Playoff Team* No Risk. The Packers need to beat the Lions this week to ensure they have a bye week.  If they win and the Saints lose they could even move to the one seed. They will be playing to win.

• Locked In:Davante Adams , Aaron Jones (again, putting him here by rushing volume and goal line touches, though he still cedes snaps to Jamaal Williams )
• Risky:Jamaal Williams , Allen Lazard , Geronimo Allison , Jimmy Graham

Panthers

• Locked In:Christian McCaffrey , Curtis Samuel
• Risky:Ian Thomas (Olsen returned but, with nothing on the line, not reason to push Olsen) Greg Olsen , Chris Hogan (D.J. Moore left with a concussion last week – again, no reason to push these guys when you are eliminated and your opponent has the division locked up), Jarius Wright

Patriots

*Playoff Team* - No risk. The Patriots need to beat the Dolphins to secure the two seed – they will be playing for keeps

• Locked In: Julian Edelman , Mohamed Sanu
• Risky:N’Keal Harry, Sony Michel , James White

Raiders

*Playoff Team* -No Risk.  The Raiders need a number of different unlikely scenarios to make the playoffs but they can’t make it if they don’t win so they will give it their best shot. 

• Locked In:Darren Waller , Tyrell Williams ,
• Risky:Zay Jones (plays a large snap share but does little with it), DeAndre Washington , Jalen Richard , Josh Jacobs (Raiders said they won’t rush Jacobs back if he’s not ready so I wouldn’t bank on him)

Rams

• Locked In:Robert Woods , Todd Gurley , Tyler Higbee
• Risky:Cooper Kupp , Brandin Cooks (the Rams have been using blocking tight end Johnny Mundt more often than usual in two tight end sets, usually to the detriment of one of these two guys)

Ravens

*Playoff Team* - High Risk.  The Ravens have the first seed locked up and they have already announced that Lamar Jackson , Mark Ingram , and Marshal Yanda won’t play on the offense.  On a team that notoriously spreads the snaps out already, there is risk that everyone you normally count on will see limited snaps.

• Locked In:(no one is a lock)
• Risky: Hayden Hurst (Andrews has battled injuries so we would not be surprised to see Hayden Hurst get an extended look), Myles Boykin, Justice Hill (now is the time for the young players to get extra snaps so they are ready in case the team needs them)

Redskins

• Locked In: Terry McLaurin , Kelvin Harmon
• Risky: Adrian Peterson , Chris Thompson (another time share between the running down back and passing down back. 

Saints

*Playoff Team* No Risk.  If the Saints win and the Seahawks beat the 49ers, they would get the second seed and the bye.  The Seahawks game was flexed to the night game so they won’t know their fate until after they play.

• ALocked In:Michael Thomas , Alvin Kamara , Jared Cook
• Risky:Tre’quan Smith

Seahawks

*Playoff Team* - No Risk.  The Seahawks can win the NFC West and move to the two seed with a win.  With a loss they are the fifth wild card seed.  With those implications, they won’t be holding anything back.

• Locked In: Tyler Lockett , D.K. Metcalf
• Risky: Marshawn Lynch (with Chris Carson , Rashaad Penny , and C.J. Prosise out they signed him off the street to play.  How effective he will be is hard to say), Jacob Hollister (Luke Willson ’s return hurts some of his snaps)

Steelers

*Playoff Team* No Risk.  To make the playoffs they need to win and they need the Texans to beat the Titans.  Full steam ahead.

• Locked In: Vance McDonald , JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Risky: James Washington , Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Samuels (with James Conner banged up once again, it will likely be the Jaylen Samuels show)

Texans

*Playoff Team* - Moderate to High. The Texans could move from the four seed to the three seed which would be a minor improvement but they would need the Chiefs to lose to do that.  The Chiefs actually play before them so, if they win, expect the Texans to sit anyone important.  Even if they do have that opportunity to move up, I would not be surprised to sit injury prone guys like Will Fuller to be safe. 

• Locked In:No one.
• Risky: DeAndre Hopkins , Carlos Hyde , Duke Johnson

Titans

*Playoff Team* - No Risk.  If the Titans win they are in the playoffs.  If they lose they have a chance to be out. They likely rested Derrick Henry last week specifically so he would be healthy for weeks like this and the playoffs. 

• Locked In: A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry
• Risky: Corey Davis , Jonnu Smith

Vikings

*Playoff Team* - High Risk.  The loss to the Packers last week locks the Vikings into the number six seed which makes this a meaningless game for them.  Dalvin Cook absolutely won’t play but I wouldn’t be surprised if other guys saw limited snaps as well.

• Locked In:No one.
• Risky: Irv Smith, Bisi Johnson (teams will let the young guys get reps to make sure they are ready.  This could be that opportunity for these two), Ameer Abdullah (more effective last week, clearly).