Catch Me If You Can

I know it is still very early on in the season, but what is going on with running backs catching the ball at such a high volume so far?

Let me throw some numbers at you: Theo Riddick is currently on pace for 112 receptions; Alvin Kamara and Melvin Gordon , 120; Saquon Barkley , 128; Chris Thompson , 152; and Christian McCaffrey , a whopping 160. Both McCaffrey and Thompson are on pace to set the NFL single season receptions record by nearly a 20 catch margin, while every other name on this list is on pace to set the receptions record for the running back position outright.

Look, I understand, it has only been two games so far, but the fact that so many running backs are sky high on the league leaders list for receptions is a bit out of the ordinary.

What do we make of it? Well, you can look at it in one of two ways… Either A) this will be an odd year/is the new norm for the NFL and several running backs will set receiving records, or B) things will correct to the norm and these early season catch numbers will slow down. I’m inclined to believe the latter because as it stands, in the history of the NFL, only three guys have recorded 100 receptions or more in a single season from the running back position -- Larry Centers with 101 in 1995, LaDainian Tomlinson with 100 in 2003, and Matt Forte with 102 in 2014. It doesn’t happen often and is proven a hard feat to accomplish. Having said that, we have to look at some of the names on the list and the way their respective offenses are currently using them.

In regards to Chris Thompson and Christian McCaffrey , while they may be their team’s best back, there is no question that their primary trait is catching the football. In many instances, they are lined up in the slot, for crying out loud. The same can be said for Melvin Gordon , as despite his billing as a workhorse back, he has never averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in his career. His best asset is undoubtedly as a mismatch receiver out of the backfield. Two other names on the list are young phenoms Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley . While both offer excellent between-the-tackles ability, what separates them as elite talents is their equal billing as a jack-of-all-trades or swiss army knife. And do I really need to explain Theo Riddick ? Throughout his entire career, he has been regarded with PPR fantasy value only. He sees very few rushes per game, instead tying his entire skill-set to catching the football.  

So what am I getting at? Well, considering the multi-faceted skills of the names on this list, the fact that they are all amongst the league leaders in receptions so far doesn’t really surprise me. Sure, I don’t expect Saquon Barkley to catch 14 passes for the second consecutive week next Sunday, but I also don’t expect him to rush the ball 25 times either. He’s best utilized in open space and the best way to get him there is by throwing him the ball. The same goes for Melvin Gordon , Chris Thompson , Christian McCaffrey , Theo Riddick , and Alvin Kamara . This is a collection of young backs whose teams are intent and content with getting the ball in their hands by any means necessary.

You want a concrete verdict? I’ll go as far to say that at least one of these guys breaks Matt Forte ’s single season receptions record for the running back position (102 catches in 2014), however I would be thoroughly surprised if McCaffrey continues his pace of 10 catches per game!

Regardless, even through two weeks, it is clear that this season is different. Through shovel passes, dump offs, quick hits, banana patterns, and slot mismatches, running backs are catching the football more than ever before; RPO’s be damned!

Overreactions

To stick with our theme of overreacting to early season numbers... Raise your hand if during the preseason you predicted that something called Matt Breida would be leading the league in rushing up to this point. How bout, did you include Phillip Lindsay and James Conner ’s names when rounding out your top five rushers for 2018? Can’t say that I did either, but here we are.

While it seems scary now for those of you who invested early picks in the likes of Kareem Hunt , Jordan Howard , and David Johnson , I’m here to give you my best Aaron Rodgers impression… “R. E. L. A. X.”

Let’s take a ride in the way-back machine, to Week 3 of the 2016 season – almost two years ago to the day. Anyone remember some of the names littered across the rushing yards leaderboard? Let me fill you in, Rashad Jennings, Jalen Richard , Christine Michael , and Fozzy Whittaker of all people! At the same time, do you know who was struggling in that same category? Ezekeil Elliott, Jordan Howard , and LeSean McCoy . You know where they all finished? Allow me to fill you in: Rashad Jennings lost his starting job, Christine Michael also lost his starting job and was traded by the Seahawks for the second time in two years, Jalen Richard fell to third string, and Fozzy Whittaker would finish the season with a mere 265 rushing yards, despite racking up 100 on 16 carries in Week 2. Contrarily, Zeke, Howard, and Shady would finish 1st, 2nd, and 6th in the league in terms of rushing leaders, by the end of 2016.

Now, while this is just one example, understand that it is an excellent parable for navigating the unorthodox beginning to this season at the running back position.

Trust your instincts, people. There’s a reason that you did all of that fantasy football research during the offseason.

While Philip Lindsay and Matt Breida are fun to watch right now, let’s not sell the farm for them and give up on guys like David Johnson and Kareem Hunt .

Remember that circumstances matter. Despite the fact that David Johnson ’s offensive line sucks and that Kareem Hunt is in an offense that probably just threw another touchdown pass on the Steelers defense as I completed this sentence, they are both still proven commodities, entering or currently in the primes of their physical careers. On the other hand, Matt Breida is still considered by his coaching staff the “passing down only” back, while Philip Lindsay has to stave off a third round pick for early down work and a proven veteran for passing down work. Both Breida and Lindsay may end up being solid fantasy options going forward, don’t get me wrong, but let’s not overvalue them either.

It’s easy to get caught up in the numbers early on in the season; football is back and everything is so exciting and new again. I get it, I’m guilty of it myself (see Catch Me If You Can story above). As a community though, we have to practice discipline in these types of situations. If we don’t, consequences could be catastrophic… Imagine being the guy who traded Zeke for Fozzy Whittaker in Week 3 of 2016? Sheesh!

NostraDomUs Boldly Predicts

Each week – whether through a DFS or a season-long lens – your beloved prophet, NostraDomUs, will offer a few predictions for the week to come at the running back position. In each following edition, we will reflect upon the previous predictions and keep a running tally across the season, termed “prophetic percentage.” Now without further ado… I give you NostraDomUs!

How’d we do last week?

Prediction #1: Despite being priced as the 45th best back this week on DraftKings ($4,300) Royce Freeman will finish as a top-10 back for Week 2. Wrong

Prediction #2: James Conner repeats as a top-10 scorer but gains more receiving yards than rushing yards. Right

Prediction #3: Recently signed running back Jonathan Williams will receive more rushing attempts than Alvin Kamara this week. Wrong

As I think that I have made pretty clear, these are BOLD predictions, so it is going to be tough to hit on a high percentage. Having said that, I was pleasantly surprised to see that I absolutely nailed the James Conner prediction – he finished as the 8th scoring back back in Week 2 and he had 43 receiving yards to just 17 rushing yards. As for the other two predictions, Royce Freeman disappointed me and let’s not even acknowledge what Jonathan Williams did for me…

Season-Long Prophetic Percentage: (33%)

Right: 1

Wrong: 2

WEEK 3 BOLD PREDICTIONS

Prediction #1: Corey Clement repeats as a top-10 scorer for Week 3, despite being priced as the 48th most valuable back on DraftKings ($4,300).

I’ll lead you guys off with the prediction I feel least strongly about, but if you hear me out, you will understand the thought process…

Clement finished as the 9th highest scoring back last week on just 11 touches. This week he enters the game as basically the only healthy back on the Eagles roster and will benefit from the return of Carson Wentz . The Eagles are also at home (love running backs at home on good teams) and will be playing a bad defense in the Colts. Don’t give me this BS how the Colts are currently ranked 9th in total defense and 8th against the run, they haven’t played anyone good yet and have no real talent on that side of the ball.

Prediction #2: Sony Michel cracks the top-10 scorers this week, despite barely being ranked as a top-100 scorer so far this season.

I know that Matt Patricia knows the Patriots offensive scheme inside and out, and I know that Sony Michel hasn’t done squat this season, but last week I saw some signs. Michel led the team in carries and yards, and while 3.4 yards per carry is less than impressive, let’s take a look at his opponent this week.

In two weeks so far, the Lions have allowed the Jets to score 48 points and the Niners to score 30. In the process, they’ve allowed 102 yards rushing to Isaiah Crowell , 60 to Bilal Powell , 138 to Matt Breida , and 48 to Alfred Morris . That’s 348 yards allowed in just two weeks! Michel is a more than talented back and the Patriots are coming off of an embarassing loss last week. This one could get ugly.

Prediction #3: Kareem Hunt gets back on track this week and scores 20+ fantasy points for the first time this season.

Depending on who you ask, this may either be my most “out there” or most obvious prediction this week.

In this new look Chiefs offense, it is no secret that Patrick Mahomes and the deep passing game is the focal point of the game plan, but looking at their matchups so far this season, it was sort of an organic development rather than by design. Both the Chargers and the Steelers are far better competition for the Chiefs, offering more high-powered offenses and stronger defenses than the Niners can throw at them in Week 3.

In their home opener, the Chiefs should take an early lead and finally have an opponent that won’t match them in deep play ability. Because of this, they should be able to rely upon Kareem Hunt and the power running game for the first time this season, allowing them to burn the clock and take pressure off of their young quarterback.


-- If you like what you read, feel free to follow me on twitter (@Nostra_Dom_Us) and make sure to tune in next Wednesday for the newest edition of “The Running Back Workloads.” --