After a crazy Week 12, we’ve arrived at a pivotal Week 13 as this is either the last shot to seal a playoff seed or the first shot at going for a title in earnest. Let’s look back at what transpired in Week 12 inside the 20 and see if there’s any potentially playoff changing information that we can glean from those performances.
Red Zone Passing
Mitchell Trubisky CHI - Welcome back to the lineup Mr. Trubisky. After several weeks on the sideline he was back on the field to face the Packers and while the on field product wasn’t great, it did lead to him having 13 red zone pass attempts. Eight of those came inside the 10-yard line with three touchdowns and a red zone rush. It appears that Trubisky is back to being the starting quarterback for Chicago so they can aptly see what he has left to prove before the season ends. The Bears are heading into a game this weekend against the Lions whose defense is really facing injuries right now and so we could be in for a second strong week from Trubisky in Week 13.
Matt Ryan ATL - Ryan has been up and down this year but Week 12 against one of the worst pass defenses in the league was an up week. He posted 11 attempts, which is the most all season for Ryan, besting the previous season-high, set in Week 1, by two. Speaking of two, that’s how many passing touchdowns Ryan threw inside the 20 against Vegas and the 11 targets were spread out to fewer than five different receiving threats. The issue with Ryan to watch for is that his passer rating is 101 with Julio Jones on the field and 68.9 when he’s not this year and it certainly frees up Calvin Ridley to be more effective, especially in the red zone.
Alex Smith WAS - The Washington offense has really taken strides forward since Smith took over the starting QB role a few weeks ago and Week 12 was the second time in three weeks that he passed seven times inside the red zone. That may not sound like that much for some other quarterbacks but both of those showings are team-highs for this year and him being in the lineup has added nearly 100 yards a game on offense and about eight points a game on the scoreboard. Part of that is his ability to work well in short yardage like the red zone. Pittsburgh could be a tough test in Week 13 but they are giving up a touchdown on nearly 63-percent of trips to the red zone this year.
Kirk Cousins MIN - We’ve seen a whole different Cousins the last four or five games this year and the red zone attempts have also come back too. The seven attempts he had in Week 12 was the second-best mark of his season only behind the eight he posted in Week 6 and three of those seven went for scores. Each week since the Vikings’ bye week in Week 7 his red zone attempts have increased and the 19 he’s had the last five games account for nearly half of his season total of 40. The offense is starting to get rolling consistently now and they face Jacksonville’s terrible defense in Week 13 which should lead to a higher red zone total for Cousins.
Red Zone Rushing
DeAndre Washington RB MIA - The Miami backfield has been a revolving door all season and in Week 12 five different running backs saw snaps against the Jets. Washington saw the most work and saw the most carries in the red zone as well. His six rushes inside the 20 is the most since Salvon Ahmed two weeks ago and is the fourth such game for Miami this year between all of their backs. Now he didn’t do much with those chances and only two of them were inside the 10, plus he’s now got a hamstring issue he’s battling, but if he can go, he may get the lion’s share of the work inside the 20 again in Week 13.
Latavius Murray RB NO - Murray has been a guy that kind of splits time with Alvin Kamara but doesn’t really produce enough consistently to be played unless Kamara is hurt, well that wasn’t the case in Week 12. Since Taysom Hill has taken over at quarterback, Kamara’s share in the offense has decreased but in Week 12 he was majorly overshadowed inside the 20 by Murray who registered six rushes and a score. As long as HIll is running the offense, Murray seems like a guy who’s got flex appeal and is showing to get the work in the red zone as he has 23 carries inside the 20 on the year compared to Kamara’s 29.
Ito Smith RB ATL - It was supposed to be Brian Hill getting the work in the Falcons’ backfield with Todd Gurley ruled out but instead the work inside the 20 went to Ito Smith both in the rushing and receiving department. He carried it four times, the most for an Atlanta back since Gurley’s six in Week 8, and caught it three times as well which is the most all season for a Falcons back. We’re uncertain on what’s up with Gurley’s knee and how long he’ll be out for but Smith seems like the back they may turn to if Gurley is out another week.
Nick Chubb RB CLE - Chubb has been very good since his return from injury and has posted at least 100 yards rushing in each game. His four red zone rushes in Week 12 were the most for him in a game since the five he posted in Week 3 and he turned one into a score. The thought that Kareem Hunt would significantly harm Chubb’s workload has been proven not to be correct when both are healthy and so he remains a lock and load play each week going forward, and he out performed Hunt in the red zone this past week too.
Austin Ekeler RB LAC - Ekeler was back in full for the Chargers last week, a big boost to their offense as he’s accounted for an average of nearly 130 yards from scrimmage in the four full games he’s played this year. The three red zone carries he had in Week 12 were the most in a game for him since his three in Week 1 and it tied him with Joshua Kelley on the day too though Ekeler got in the endzone and Kelley didn’t. When Ekeler is healthy he is clearly a key weapon for the Chargers all over the field but in the red zone his split use is a big help to Justin Herbert as well.
Red Zone Receiving
Allen Robinson WR CHI - Where did this week come from for Robinson? Coming into the week he had seven red zone targets on the year and he left with 12. He caught most of the targets as well as putting two in the endzone for one of, if not, the best game of the year for the stud wideout who is known as a target monster inside the 20 and all over the field. Given the Bears remaining schedule and the connection he and Trubisky could have, Robinson could be in a spot to go on a run that wins a fantasy football title for someone.
Justin Jefferson WR MIN - The rookie wideout for Minnesota has been phenomenal this season and now in Week 12 he really showed what he could do near the endzone. He saw four targets his way against Carolina and caught two of them, both for scores. The four targets brings his season total up to six and that still has him top two on the team behind fellow wideout Adam Thielen . Jefferson is also seeing 17.2-percent of the targets inside the 20 which is a healthy second behind Thielen as well, but solidly ahead of either tight end. Expect another strong week from Jefferson in Week 13.
Calvin Ridley WR ATL - With a big week from Ryan came a big wek from Ridley as you have to go back to weeks 7-8 combined to see Ridley targeted as much as he was on Sunday. The three targets against the Raiders tie for his season-high set back in Week 1 and resulted in two catches and a score. He’s up to 15 targets on the season which is top-five in the NFL and is nearly as many as Julio Jones and Russell Gage have combined at this point. He should remain the favorite target inside the 20 as the fantasy playoffs get going as well.
Logan Thomas TE WAS - Thomas has been a revelation at the TE spot this year and with Week 12’s showing, he’s now the sixth-most targeted tight end in the red zone this year, and ahead of some bigger names. Evan Engram , T.J. Hockenson , Mark Andrews , Mike Gesicki , and Hayden Hurst are all bigger names that are below Thomas in the target list. Not only that but he’s fourth in the entire NFL in target share in the red zone at a whopping 34.3-percent and his four targets on Thanksgiving accounted for more than half of Alex Smith ’s total. He caught four of them including one for the only red zone touchdown scored through the air for Washington. He’s got a tough match-up on Monday against Pittsburgh but putting him into the slot more often should help him get more looks.
Eric Ebron TE PIT - Ebron is fifth in the NFL in red zone targets for tight ends and one of only three at the position to have at least one target in each game since Week 8 and has had at least one target in each game since Week 6. The three he saw on Wednesday was tied for the most he’s seen in a game this season and while he didn’t catch any, he was tied with JuJu Smith-Schuster for the most on the team against Baltimore. Even with a full complement of healthy wideouts, Ebron is still seeing a fair number of targets go his way too.
Red Zone Defense
New York Giants - For all of the stuff going on in New York this year, for both teams, it’s gotten overlooked that the Giants have the seventh-best red zone defense in the league based on red zone scoring rate. They’ve allowed 55.3-percent of opponent trips to the 20 to result in scores and tied for ninth in fewest red zone touchdowns allowed. They are playing the offense with the number-one red zone scoring rate in the league, Seattle at 75-percent, this week but they have been pretty good at stifling the top targets throughout the year. It should be an interesting match-up to watch and a key to the game as the Giants’ offense will need all the help they can get from the defense this week.
Cleveland Browns - Nearly half the league has allowed 40 trips to the red zone by their opponents so far this year, and right now, the Browns have the third-lowest touchdown allowed rate of that group and the eighth-best on the year at 59.1-percent. Tennessee has been a top-five offense in the red zone this year so the Browns stopping their multi-weapon attack will be key to allowing the Browns’ offense to do what they want in the game and not have to play from behind.