Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -6.5

O/U: 45.5

Money Line: Packers -315; Rams +270

Betting Trends:

Green Bay is 5-1 straight up in its last six games against the Rams.

Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.

The Rams are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games.

The total has hit the under in four of the Rams' last five games.

Weather:

Mid 30s, possible flurries/snow showers w/ 24% chance of precipitation & winds blowing NNW at 13 mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Packers lead series 4-1

Average Margin of Victory – 13.2

Last Match-Up – Rams beat the Packers 29-27 in Los Angeles on 10/28/2018

Notable Injuries:

Rams:

Packers:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Rams:

vs Pass: 4th 

vs Run: 3rd

Packers:

vs Pass: 15th 

vs Run: 18th   

Props We’re Watching:

Passing Yards:

Aaron Rodgers – 259.5 (over -108; under -115)

Jared Goff – 209.5 (over & under -112)

Rushing Yards:

Aaron Jones – 68.5 (over -125; under +105)

Cam Akers – 70.5 (over -130; under +105)

Receiving Yards:

Davante Adams – 75.5 (over & under -112)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 23.5 (over & under -112)

Aaron Jones – 23.5 (over -118; under -106)

Robert Woods – 54.5 (over & under -112)

Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade.

Captain/MVP

Aaron Rodgers , QB GB – Not only is he on a quest to earn the season’s MVP award, but he wants the Super Bowl and that MVP award too. It’s a tough match-up, so expecting 300 yards and three touchdowns might be unrealistic, but Rodgers will do whatever it takes to come away with the victory and that’s worth its weight in gold.

Davante Adams , WR GB – He’ll likely see the heavy Jalen Ramsey shadow, but he’s a true professional and transcends match-ups. You may not get that 100-yard effort out of him, but there is no other player on this slate who will fetch you better numbers. Besides, didn’t DK Metcalf score twice last week with Ramsey climbing all over him?

Cam Akers, RB LAR – The Packers run defense has been their defensive Achilles heel all season, so that, coupled with Jared Goff ’s thumb issues, should lock Akers into the lion’s share of carries throughout the game. Green Bay may have added Snacks Harrison to the fold in Week 17, but they’re still allowing an average of 126.3 rushing yards per game over their last three.

Mid-Tier

Cooper Kupp , WR LAR – We’ll have to continue watching the health of his knee, but with Jaire Alexander likely crawling all over Woods, Kupp should see more targets. If he can pick up yards after the catch and get his usual allotment of red-zone targets, he should be a solid play this week.

Robert Woods , WR LAR – Sean McVay is going to try and get creative so his top receiving threat isn’t blanketed by Alexander all game. Not a fan of how low his prop total for receiving yards is, but the money line on the over/under says it can go either way.

Aaron Jones , RB GB – With the Rams defense allowing just 93 rushing yards per game this season, using Jones is going to be all about how much passing work you think he gets. The short, quick screens could be the Packers bread and butter given the match-ups in the secondary, so if Jones gets involved, we like him for DFS contests. He’s seen the bulk of targets for the running backs in recent weeks, so hopefully that continues.

Dart-Throws

Marquez Valdes-Scantling , WR GB – While Troy Hill has had a fantastic season for himself, MVS does have the speed to get behind him in coverage and blow up for a long touchdown from Rodgers. His receiving yards prop is pretty low and given the match-ups, I am inclined to take the over. Because of that, I’ll use him in my showdown lineup.

Los Angeles Rams D/ST – Their defense has been outstanding throughout the season and they were on-point last week when they took down the Seahawks. Can they contain the Packers? We’ll see, but they’ve got a killer defensive line and some serious ball-hawks in the secondary.

Green Bay Packers D/ST – If the Packers sell out to stuff the run and everything falls on Jared Goff ’s shoulders, then the Packers defense could be a huge play this week. Goff is certainly not at 100% and if he should struggle or get hurt, the Rams are left with Blake Bortles which should have the Packers salivating.

Be sure to check out the other Showdown slate articles for the rest of the weekend slate!

Ravens vs. Bills

Browns vs. Chiefs

Buccaneers vs. Saints