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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10
O/U: 57
Money Line: Chiefs -500; Browns +400
Betting Trends:
Cleveland is 4-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last 12 games.
The total has hit the over in five of Cleveland's last seven games.
Kansas City is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games.
Kansas City is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Cleveland.
Weather:
Low 40s, partly cloudy w/ 9% chance of precipitation and winds blowing NW 13 mph
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Last 5 Match-Ups:
Chiefs lead series 4-1
Average Margin of Victory – 10.2
Last Match-Up – Chiefs beat the Browns 37-21 in Cleveland on 11/4/2018
Notable Injuries:
Browns:
- David Njoku , TE (hamstring – DNP Wednesday)
- Jack Conklin , RT (hamstring – DNP Thursday)
- Myles Garrett , DE (shoulder – limited Wednesday)
- Sheldon Richardson , DT (neck – limited Wednesday)
Chiefs:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (ankle – DNP Thursday)
- Sammy Watkins , WR (calf – DNP Thursday)
- Willie Gay, LB (ankle – DNP Wednesday)
Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):
Browns:
vs Pass: 25th
vs Run: 19th
Chiefs:
vs Pass: 16th
vs Run: 31st
Props We’re Watching:
Passing Yards:
Patrick Mahomes – 320.5 (over -118; under -106)
Baker Mayfield – 259.5 (over & under -112)
Rushing Yards:
Nick Chubb – 67.5 (over -121; under -104)
Kareem Hunt – 31.5 (over & under -118)
Receiving Yards:
Jarvis Landry – 58.5 (over & under -112)
Rashard Higgins – 46.5 (over & under -112)
Kareem Hunt – 15.5 (over -136; under +110)
Tyreek Hill – 81.5 (over & under -112)
Austin Hooper – 38.5 (over -125; under +101)
Travis Kelce – 86.5 (over -150; under +120)
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade.
Captain/MVP
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Patrick Mahomes , QB KC – If you’ve listened to me and Adam Ronis on the Ante Up Podcast this past week, you’ve heard us discuss the possibility of the Chiefs just unleashing an onslaught on the Browns defense this week after a season where many wondered if they could repeat. The more I think about it, the more I want to invest in all things Mahomes. Do you even need me to remind you that Ben Roethlisberger put up 500 yards on these Browns last week?
Tyreek Hill , WR KC – Even with Denzel Ward returning to action this week, there just isn’t a single cover guy on the Browns who can keep pace with the Cheetah. If the Chiefs are going to blow it out this week, Hill is posting big numbers.
Travis Kelce , TE KC – He’s the best in the game at his position and he’s leaned on heavily by his quarterback. The fact that the Browns rank28th in DVOA against the tight end is just an added bonus.
Nick Chubb , RB CLE – The only way the Browns come close to winning this one is if Kevin Stefanski rides Chubb like a pony all game long. He needs 20-plus carries to build up that momentum and he can tear up this Chiefs weak-ass run defense if given the opportunity. If you’re going the opposite way of a Chiefs onslaught, then Chubb as your Captain is going to be huge.
Mid-Tier
Baker Mayfield , QB CLE – The Browns are having him throw a little more than to my liking, but if Mahomes starts lighting up this Browns defense, then Mayfield is going to have to take it to the air. He’s got decent weapons over the middle and should be able to put up points which means having both QBs in your lineup could be the winner if you find the right pay-downs.
Kareem Hunt , RB CLE – Everyone can talk about the revenge-game narrative, but, more importantly, if the Browns fall behind, Hunt will see more snaps as the pass-catching back. He works well in tandem with Chubb, so if the Browns are winning, he’s a solid play. If they’re losing, well, more check-downs then which also makes him a solid play.
Jarvis Landry , WR CLE – He’s the No. 1 target for Mayfield and he’ll either be facing Antonio Hamilton or rookie L’Jarius Sneed in coverage. He’ll be leaned on in between the 20s and he’ll see his share of red zone looks as well.
Dart-Throws
Demarcus Robinson , WR KC – It sounds like the Chiefs could be without Sammy Watkins who hasn’t practiced due to an ankle injury. If he is out, then Robinson will step up to third in targets on the team. It’s always tough to figure who the KC dart-throw is, but while most flock to Mecole Hardman, we’ll take the better value with Robinson.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC – The Browns defensive weakness is in the secondary, but the Chiefs are likely to find some success on the ground even if they start running right at Myles Garrett who tends to over-commit and over-pursue at times. He’s strictly a dart-throw to differentiate yourself from the rest of the herd, as it seems unlikely that Andy Reid will put the shackles on the passing attack. And if he's out, by the way, easy pivot to Darrel Williams or maybe even Le'Veon Bell .
Austin Hooper , TE CLE – The Chiefs allow the third-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Hooper has entrenched himself as the No. 2 target in this Browns passing attack. Hunter Bryant could be interesting if you really need to save salary, but we still like what Hopper brings to the table more.
Be sure to check out the other Showdown slate articles for the rest of the weekend slate!
Player News
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports there are “multiple people in the league who believe the new regime is not so high on Travis Etienne.”
Fowler also noted Tank Bigsby’s fumbling issue but didn’t directly relate that to the feelings of the new brain trust in Jacksonville. The Jags clearly felt they were lacking at running back this offseason and addressed that opening via the draft with Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round and LeQuint Allen in the seventh. The pair of additions complicate an already-messy backfield by committee. Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is a long-shot to be brought back in 2026. The Jags could opt to move on early by trading him, clearing $6.1 million in cap space in the process. If the team does trade Etienne, Tuten would likely be the team’s top back in the long run, making him a high-upside bet in early fantasy drafts.
Broncos signed third-round pick WR Pat Bryant to a four-year contract.
The deal includes $1.4 million guaranteed and is worth $6.6 million in total. Sean Payton compared aspects of Bryant’s game to those of Michael Thomas in his post-draft press conference and there are at least a few similarities in their profiles. Bryant stands at 6'2/204 and ran a 4.61-second Forty at the combine. Thomas measured in at 6'3/212 and clocked a 4.57-second Forty. Though the two have similar physical characteristics, Thomas was known for his proficiency from the slot while Bryant primarily played on the outside as a field-stretcher at Illinois. Bryant’s transition to slot duties may take some time, but third-round draft capital makes him worth a shot in dynasty leagues.