Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3.5

O/U: 51.5

Money Line: Packers -180; Buccaneers +155

Betting Trends:

  • Tampa Bay is 10-8 against the spread (ATS) this season.
  • The total has hit the over in 10 of Tampa Bay's 18 games.
  • Green Bay is 11-6 ATS this season.
  • The total has hit the over in 10 of Green Bay's 17 games.

Weather: Low 30s, cloudy w/ snow showers in the AM and winds blowing SW 5mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Packers lead series 3-2

Average Margin of Victory – 14

Last Match-Up – Bucs beat the Packers 38-10 in Tampa Bay during Week 6 of this season

Notable Injuries:

Packers:

Buccaneers:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Packers:

vs Pass: 15th 

vs Run: 18th

Buccaneers:

vs Pass: 5th 

vs Run: 1st

Props We’re Watching:

Passing Yards:

Tom Brady – 289.5 (over & under -112)

Aaron Rodgers – 279.5 (over -124, under +100)

Rushing Yards:

Leonard Fournette – 42.5 (over & under -112)

Ronald Jones – 35.5 (over & under -112)

Aaron Jones – 62.5 (over & under -112)

Jamaal Williams – 20.5 (over -118, under -106)

Receiving Yards:

Chris Godwin – 63.5 (over -124, under +100)

Mike Evans – 63.5 (over & under -112)

Rob Gronkowski –28.5 (over & under -112)

Cameron Brate – 27.5 (over -167, under +133)

Davante Adams – 87.5 (over & under -112)

Allen Lazard – 45.5 (over -118, under -103)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 29.5 (over -124, under +100)

Robert Tonyan – 34.5 (over & under -112)

**Remember – just because you don’t see a player listed below, doesn’t mean he is a complete fade.

Captain/MVP

Aaron Rodgers , QB GB – He’s a man on a mission and that mission doesn’t end until he’s standing there with the Vince Lombardi Trophy in one hand and the Pete Rozelle Trophy in the other. He played one of his worst games of the season the last time these teams met in Week 6 and retribution is all he has on his mind. Over his last six games, he’s averaged just 250 passing yards per game, but that comes with a 17:1 TD:INT and three rushing touchdowns.

Tom Brady , QB TB – Tough to call Brady a contrarian play at the Captain Spot, but he is for me. Nothing wrong with it, but I do believe the Bucs try a run-heavy scheme to start and hope that it opens the passing attack more. He is certainly capable of blowing up, but let’s remember that his 343 passing yards per game average over his last five games have been inflated by match-ups with Atlanta (twice), Detroit and Washington.

Davante Adams , WR GB – The Bucs are going to try their best to contain, but it’s a near impossibility. When they played back in Week 6 and Carlton Davis held Adams to just 61 yards on six catches, but he was at the top of his game. The second half of the season saw Davis suffering from chronic groin and knee issues. He’s listed as healthy, but the play has slipped dramatically and Rodgers will do everything he can to feed his top target.

Mid-Tier

Ronald Jones , RB TB – Most will go to Fournette who gets an honorable mention for his recent work, but Jones is the fresh legs here and the guy who should see ample touches. When he is running hot, Arians likes to have him on the field and we’ve seen Brady audible to him when he spots a weakness in the defensive scheme. Let’s also remember that while his stat line read 13 carries for 62 yards, he would have eclipsed the 100-yard mark but had two chunk-yardage runs called back due to penalties, one of which went for over 40.

Chris Godwin , WR TB – Been waffling back and forth all week between Godwin and Mike Evans , but am going to stay with Godwin even though we hear Jaire Alexander won’t be shadowing Evans. The last time these teams squared off, Godwin only had five grabs for 58 yards, but Brady kept attacking the middle of the field. We should see something very similar this week and when the Bucs go into three-receiver sets, it’s likely Godwin who will work the slot. I think he dominates in targets and receiving yards for a Bucs team that is still expected to spread the ball around.

Robert Tonyan , TE GB – Tonyan has done the impossible this year. He helped show the world that Rodgers does indeed throw to his tight end. How? Simple. He spent time with his quarterback and simply asked of him what he needed from him to become a reliable target. It’s worked out very nicely as you watch when Rodgers rolls out and sees Tonyan exactly where he needs to be. Add to that – the Bucs have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position this season, but they also rank 25th in DVOA, allowing an average of 53.5 receiving yards per game to them.

Dart-Throws

Tyler Johnson, WR TB – For most, it’s a veritable toss-up between Johnson and Scotty Miller who does get an honorable mention as a deep dart-throw, but I’ll still lean Johnson here as the guy who saw more snaps last week in the second half when Antonio Brown was on the sidelines and twice the snaps of Miller here in the playoffs. With Brown out this week, Johnson should see the extra snaps on the outside while moving Godwin to the slot and that puts him up against Kevin King who is going to be playing at less than 100-percent.  

Marquez Valdes-Scantling , WR GB – The herd will go with Allen Lazard because of his performance last week which tilts me over to MVS this time around. I’m actually a big fan of Lazard, but this is where game theory needs to be linked into your Showdown lineup construction. If playing multiple lineups, I don’t mind seeing a share of Lazard, but if everyone is going to be doing it, then you need to differentiate yourself. Both are capable of catching long touchdowns, so it’s time to zig when everyone else zags.

Cameron Brate , TE TB – Similar to the MVS vs Lazard debate, most are going to lock into Rob Gronkowski in this game because he’s got the name recognition and the history with Brady. But Gronk has done a lot more blocking in recent weeks and Brate has eight grabs on 11 targets for 130 yards in two playoff games this season. He’s also got two red zone targets in the last three games, so while Gronk may get more looks inside the end zone, Brate is not ignored and also racks up better yardage totals.

Honorable Mentions: Jamaal Williams , Leonard Fournette , Scotty Miller

 

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