Welcome to the Christmas Day Showdown Slate for NFL Week 16!
Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiated yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we are encouraged to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, lecture over. Let’s get to today’s action.
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
Spread: Steelers -7
O/U: 51
Weather: DOME
Notable Injuries
Vikings:
Alexander Mattison, RB (concussion – OUT)
Kyle Rudolph , TE (foot – OUT)
Eric Kendricks , LB (calf – OUT)
Jalyn Holmes, DE (groin – OUT)
Armon Watts, DT (ankle – Questionable)
Todd Davis , LB (ribs – doubtful)
Saints:
Tre'Quan Smith , WR (ankle – OUT)
Marcus Williams , S (ankle – OUT)
Nick Easton , C (concussion – OUT)
DVOA Defense Ranks
Vikings:
vs Pass: 12th
vs Run: 20th
Saints:
vs Pass: 3rd
vs Run: 2nd
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade. All players listed can be used as MVP/Captain
MVP/Captain
Alvin Kamara , RB – Second most expensive player on the slate but the man does it all and should continue to see a high number of targets in the passing game against this Vikings defense that struggles against opposing running backs and will be without key defensive players this afternoon.
Adam Thielen , WR – Thielen is actually pretty affordable here an while the Saints defense has been better lately, they still tend to have issues against slot wide receivers. Thielen may have had just two catches for 11 yards last week but he found the endzone for his 13th touchdown of the season. Good value here.
Emmanuel Sanders , WR - Sanders had four catches on five targets for 76 yards last week against the Chiefs. He may trail Alvin Kamara in targets, but he is still the WR1 on the depth chart with Michael Thomas and Tre’quan Smith on IR. The Vikings pass defense has been decent this year, but I expect a good amount of volume from Sanders in this game.
Mid-Tier
Justin Jefferson, WR – The rookie WR has been outstanding this year in replacing Stefon Diggs and his big play upside makes him a great showdown play. I’d consider him as a potential captain/mvp play but he is expensive so it may be easier to fit him into a mid-tier spot.
Dalvin Cook , RB - Cook is the highest priced player on the slate. He is going to see a ton of volume and is largely matchup proof given his overall production in both the run and passing attack. The cost is really the only reason he is not a captain/mvp option for me today but if you put him there, I wouldn’t blame you. Just know it’s a tough matchup against a strong Saints run defense.
Jared Cook , TE – Someone needs to catch passes or the Saints and while Kamara and Sanders will get their targets so will Cook. The price is solid for Cook in this matchup against a Vikings team that is missing some key players on their defense. Cook is also a sneaky dart throw for your captain/mvp spot as a touchdown or two at low ownership could put you above the field.
Drew Brees , QB – Brees did not look sharp against the Chiefs yet he still managed to throw three touchdowns. Again, the Vikings are missing some key defensive players and I expect Brees to be throwing a lot in this game.
Kirk Cousins , QB – Similar reasons for playing Brees I would consider playing Cousins here as well. If the Vikings find themselves trailing, then Cousins will be forced into throwing situations. While I don’t think he is a great quarterback the weapons around him are explosive which gives the potential for solid upside.
Saints D/ST – The Saints defense has been on point for most of the season and the Vikings offense has had its own troubles at times. If the Saints get up big on the Vikings and force Kirk Cousins to beat them there is a high chance for turnovers and sacks here.
Dart Throws
Wil Lutz /Dan Bailey – Both kickers fit into spend down spots for your lineups today. If you plan on using Kamara and Dalvin Cook you will need some cheap plays. Both present solid scoring upside given their big legs. If the offense stalls out we could see some decent points. It is worth noting that both kickers have had their issues however this season with accuracy.
Latavius Murray , RB - Murray hasn’t seen more than five carries in any of the last three weeks so that tells you all you need to know about his role right now but that also makes him a decent dart throw. He found the end zone last week via the passing game and is part of the team’s red zone offense with certain packages that sees both he and Kamara on the field together.
Irv Smith, TE – No Kyle Rudolph this week so Smith will start and see the majority of the snaps once again. He is averaging close to four targets a game and tends to make some big plays. He’s a dart throw due to volume and lack of consistency but could be a nice hit if he finds the end zone.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WR – Humphrey found the end zone last week on two catches over four targets. He is expected to take a bigger role this week with Smith out of the lineup. Very cheap dart throw that could actually have some ownership behind him this week.
Player News
CBS Sports’ Aditi Kinkhabwala says free agent QB Aaron Rodgers “is not going to play just for the sake of playing.”
Kinkhabwala has had conversations with Rodgers and executives around the league trying to sign him. Based on those conversations, she says, “it’s extremely clear Rodgers is not going to play just for the sake of playing.” He remains unsigned with the 2025 NFL Draft on the horizon and multiple teams needing quarterback help. The Steelers are the most likely fit, but it seems Rodgers won’t force it if he does not find a good fit. This explains why Rodgers has been interested in the Vikings and has not yet signed. The 41-year-old may be headed for retirement if a situation he prefers, like the Vikings, does not want him back. His options remain limited and Rodgers may call it a career if he still does not like his options later in the offseason.
Bears signed LB T.J. Edwards to a two-year, $20 million extension.
Edwards’ extension includes $16.6 million guaranteed. The Bears originally signed him to a three-year, $19.5 million contract two seasons ago and he has outplayed that salary. Edwards has four interceptions, 6.5 sacks, and 20 tackles for loss in two seasons starting for Chicago in the middle of the field. He gets a raise as the Bears lock up another important part of their defense after extending CB Kyler Gordon earlier in the week.
Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams visited the Falcons on Wednesday.
Williams posted on his Instagram that he visited the Falcons facility on what was the last day of pre-draft visits. The 20-year-old is a Georgia native, played at the University of Georgia, and is expected to be selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. The Falcons have a need for an edge rusher and hold the No. 15 pick. They may look to keep Williams in-state and add his skillset to their pass-rushing group. Williams tallied five sacks last season and has explosive production for any team looking to add an edge rusher in the first round.
Fox Sports’ Jordan Schultz reports Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart “won’t fall out of the first round.”
Schultz reports his sources are indicating that Dart will not fall out of the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He continues that the Giants are a candidate to trade up from pick No. 34 into the first round to take Dart if they do not take a quarterback at pick No. 3. The Saints are also an option with pick No. 9 or a trade up from pick No. 40. Dart is generally considered the third quarterback to come off the board after Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, so a team in need of a franchise quarterback may take a chance on him after Ward and Sanders are selected. Teams could look to gain a fifth-year option on Dart and trade into the first round if he is not taken earlier.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Raiders LT Kolton Miller is not participating in the voluntary offseason program and seeks an extension.
Miller was the Raiders’ first-round pick in 2018 and has started 107 games over seven seasons for the team. He is set to enter the final year of his current contract in 2025, making $12.25 million. Though he is not technically holding out yet since the offseason program is voluntary, Fowler notes Miller is seeking an extension. He finished last season with an 80.6 PFF grade, No. 14 among offensive tackles. Miller has been the Raiders’ franchise left tackle for seven years now and both sides will certainly discuss an extension as training camp nears.
Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten said he had a private workout with the Commanders’ running backs coach.
Tuten didn’t name him directly, but Anthony Lynn is currently the Commanders’ running backs coach and run game coordinator. The Commanders were hampered by injuries to both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler last year. Robinson Jr. missed three games and played through some of his injuries while Ekeler missed five contests and was limited to just 112 touches. Tuten crushed the combine with a 4.32 Forty at 5'9/206. He handled 200 touches in back-to-back seasons at Virginia Tech while topping 1,100 yards from scrimmage in both campaigns. He would offer the Washington backfield a good mix of durability and home run potential.