Welcome to the Thursday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 14!

We’ve got ourselves a real interesting match-up and no, it’s not because the last time these two teams faced was in Super Bowl LIII. It’s because both teams have been wildly inconsistent this season despite being coached by two of the best in the league. Obviously the Patriots are also a wildly different team, at least offensively, from what they were in that Super Bowl meeting, but the Rams, who have very similar personnel and an outstanding defense, have struggled against teams they should have beaten handily.

Will the same Patriots team who just throttled the Chargers 45-0 show up tonight? Can Sean McVay keep Jared Goff on the right track? Will this game, at least be more exciting than that 13-3 Super Bowl game? We shall see.

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -4.5

O/U: 44

Money Line: Rams -225, Patriots +193

Betting Trends:

New England is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five road games.

The total has hit the under in six of New England's last eight games.

The Rams are 8-4 straight up in their last 12 games.

The total has hit the under in seven of the Rams' last eight games.

Weather: High 50’s, partly cloudy with 5% chance of precipitation; winds S 2-4mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Patriots lead series 5-0

Average Margin of Victory – 17.8

Last Match-Up – Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII on 2/3/2019

Notable Injuries:

Patriots:

  • Cam Newton , QB (abdomen – questionable)
  • Ryan Izzo , TE (neck – questionable)
  • Shaq Mason, RG (calf – questionable)
  • Nick Folk , PK (back – questionable)

Rams:

  • Matt Gay, PK (shoulder – questionable)

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Patriots:

vs Pass: 21st

vs Run: 27th

Rams:

vs Pass: 4th

vs Run: 9th

Please note that if a player is not listed that does not mean they are a full fade

MVP/Captain

Cam Newton , QB NE – No need to be alarmed by the questionable tag. Newton is fine and will be under center tonight. He’s thrown for fewer than 85 yards in back-to-back games, but he’s got three passing and three rushing touchdowns in his last four games. In fact, his 11 rushing touchdowns on the season should tell you all you need to know about putting him in the Captain’s seat.

Cooper Kupp , WR LAR – The Patriots may have shut down Keenan Allen last week, but they’ve given up quite a few touchdowns to slot receivers this season and with Jonathan Jones matching up against Kupp, the advantage goes to the receiver. He hasn’t found the end zone in eight games so that could keep ownership down, but with an average of just under nine targets per game and six red zone looks over his last four, he’s definitely someone to play.

Cam Akers, RB LAR – I feel like we’re riding a wave that’s just starting to swell as Akers now has touchdowns in back-to-back games and he just finished his first 20-carry game this season. I don’t expect that many this week, given the short turnaround, but he does seemed to be lined up as the goal-line back for now. If McVay continues to feed Akers the carries, he’s going to continue to produce, especially since the Patriots are allowing 118.1 rushing yards per game with 11 touchdowns on the ground.

Mid-Tier

Jared Goff , QB LAR – It’s not always necessary to have two QBs in your lineup, so don’t hold Goff as a must-use. However, he’s thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his last five games and four touchdowns in his last three. Yes, the interceptions are there, but he’s still had fantasy success against some tough defenses in recent weeks.

Darrell Henderson, RB LAR – He is still very much a part of this rushing attack and while he may not see as many touches as Akers, he is not being left out in the cold. He’s got two rushing touchdowns in his last four games and also has eight targets coming out of the backfield in that span.

Jakobi Meyers, WR NE – The targets have clearly diminished with the heavy run scheme, but Meyers has seen six targets in each of the last two games and will likely see a similar amount tonight. What I like most is he’s working out of the slot, so while Jalen Ramsey isn’t shadowing anyone, he still stays on the outside.

Dart Throws

Robert Woods , WR LAR – He’s going to be battling with Stephon Gillmore throughout the night and that should keep ownership fairly low. If you are looking for a contrarian play to everyone’s Kupp pick, then Woods is always a threat.

Damien Harris, RB NE – It’s tough to count on touchdowns from Harris, given how Newton continues to poach at the goal line, but he’s still seeing decent volume and if he can break one for 10 or 15 yards, maybe he does it inside the red zone. After all, he’s got 12 red zone carries in the last three games.

Nick Folk , PK NE – I’m leaning on the under in this game, so Folk is my favorite pay-down with Matt Gay second. I think both kickers have value in this game.