Welcome to the Sunday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 14!
Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -2
O/U: 48.5
Weather: High 30’s, partly cloudy but no precipitation; winds 9mph
Notable Injuries
Steelers:
Joe Hayden, CB (concussion – OUT)
Bills:
Jaquan Johnson, S (ankle – OUT)
DVOA Defense Ranks
Steelers:
vs Pass: 1st
vs Run: 3rd
Bills:
vs Pass: 14th
vs Run: 18th
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade. All players listed can be used as MVP/Captain.
MVP/Captain
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT – The man is a target monster that has seen double-digit targets in every game he has played from start-to-finish this season. Against Washington in Week 13 he finished with eight catches on 12 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. The Bills secondary has given up big plays plenty of times this season.
Ben Roethlisberger , QB PIT – This game has a 48.5 game total and better trends are leaning towards the over which means points will be scored. The Steelers running game has been lackluster lately which means the scoring has come from the arm of Big Ben. I don’t generally like using the QB as the captain, but I can see three or more touchdowns coming from Roethlisberger today.
Gabriel Davis, WR BUF KC – Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley get a lot of the love with John Brown out of the lineup but Davis plays a ton of snaps and has home run upside. He found the end zone in three of the last four weeks while notching at least 68 yards in all three of those contests. I can see Josh Allen taking some deep shots down field today with Davis being the target.
Mid-Tier
Josh Allen , QB BUF – The Steelers have a real strong defensive line that tends to cause problems for QB’s which is why I am not keen on Allen has my captain tonight but I also know that the Steelers will give up some points and Allen’s ability to extend the play with his legs and add some rushing touchdown upside makes him an appealing showdown play.
Eric Ebron , TE PIT – Drops have been an issue for Ebron in recent weeks, but he is seeing a ton of volume and now gets a Bills team that really struggles to defend the tight end position. Ebron has seen 11 targets back-to-back games and only twice all year has he been targeted less than five times.
Cole Beasley , WR BUF – Again, Stefon Diggs is an obvious play tonight but he is also very expensive and will get most of the Steelers defensive focus so while I’m not saying don’t play Diggs, I do think Beasley at a cheaper cost offers similar upside. In two of the last three games Beasley has seen at least 11 targets and with John Brown out he finds himself more involved in the team’s offense.
Steelers D/ST – This is a tough test for the Steelers defense no doubt about it but they also get after the quarterback a ton and Josh Allen is no stranger to making mistakes with the football. There will likely be very low ownership on this play with most thinking Buffalo puts up points.
JuJu Smith-Schuster , WR PIT – Since Week 7 there has been just one game where JuJu has seen less than seven targets. The Bills have struggled to cover slot receivers this season which is where JuJu largely lines up on this offense.
James Conner , RB PIT – Conner bounced back a bit against the Jaguars in Week 11 but has since missed time due to Covid-19. He is active and ready to play in tonight’s game but what can we expect? Fortunately, the Bills run defense hasn’t been that great and if we expect Pittsburgh to move the ball then there is some touchdown upside here for Conner. I also like that he is used in the passing attack to add some value.
Dart Throws
Dawson Knox , TE BUF – The tight end position actually gives the Steelers defense some trouble this season as evidenced by Logan Thomas lighting them up last week. Knox has touchdowns in two straight weeks and generally averages about three targets per game.
James Washington , WR PIT – We had him as a dart throw last week against the Washington Football Team and he came through with a big touchdown catch. He has that type of upside so why not use him as a dart throw again tonight? Sure, Johnson, Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool are more appealing options but all it takes is one play for Washington to break the slate.
Isaiah McKenzie , WR BUF – If you are making 20 lineups tonight you will want at least a couple plays of Isaiah McKenzie . Sure, he usually doesn’t see more than two targets in a game but he has found the endzone four times already this season. Basically, if he is catching the football, he is doing so for a touchdown nearly 1/5th of the time.
Player News
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports there are “multiple people in the league who believe the new regime is not so high on Travis Etienne.”
Fowler also noted Tank Bigsby’s fumbling issue but didn’t directly relate that to the feelings of the new brain trust in Jacksonville. The Jags clearly felt they were lacking at running back this offseason and addressed that opening via the draft with Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round and LeQuint Allen in the seventh. The pair of additions complicate an already-messy backfield by committee. Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is a long-shot to be brought back in 2026. The Jags could opt to move on early by trading him, clearing $6.1 million in cap space in the process. If the team does trade Etienne, Tuten would likely be the team’s top back in the long run, making him a high-upside bet in early fantasy drafts.
Broncos signed third-round pick WR Pat Bryant to a four-year contract.
The deal includes $1.4 million guaranteed and is worth $6.6 million in total. Sean Payton compared aspects of Bryant’s game to those of Michael Thomas in his post-draft press conference and there are at least a few similarities in their profiles. Bryant stands at 6'2/204 and ran a 4.61-second Forty at the combine. Thomas measured in at 6'3/212 and clocked a 4.57-second Forty. Though the two have similar physical characteristics, Thomas was known for his proficiency from the slot while Bryant primarily played on the outside as a field-stretcher at Illinois. Bryant’s transition to slot duties may take some time, but third-round draft capital makes him worth a shot in dynasty leagues.
Colts EDGE Samson Ebukam (Achilles) said he is expected to be cleared for training camp.
Ebukam suffered a torn Achilles in training camp last year and did not play in the 2024 season. He broke out in 2023 with a career-high 9.5 sacks in his first season with the Colts. He now has one year left on his deal and will be looking for a rebound season as he stares down free agency in 2026