Welcome to the Thursday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 11!

Well now this is fixing to be one heck of a game, right? Arizona and Seattle are both 6-3 atop the NFC West and both offenses are high-octane, as evidenced by the 56.5 total on tonight’s action. The question tonight is the expected game flow. Weather may be a factor and the Seahawks, normally a run-first team, are going to want to slow the pace down and keep Kyler Murray off the field. The are expected to be without Chris Carson , but Carlos Hyde will be active and the plodding journeyman could play an integral role.

Seattle’s defense remains banged-up, particularly in the secondary, so you know Kliff Kingsbury is going to want to take advantage. Despite the potential of having both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds active, I could still see Kingsbury telling Murray to sling the rock and jump out to a big lead to force the shootout. If he can strike early, then he forces Seattle to possibly abandon the run and then we’ve got our back-and forth to push towards that 56.5 total.

Which side will be most successful early? Let’s find out.

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -3

O/U: 56.5

Betting Facts:

Money line: Seahawks -152, Cardinals +133

Cardinals are 3-0 against the spread as underdogs this season

Since the start of the 2019 season, the Cardinals are 7-1-2 ATS as road underdogs

The Seahawks are 5-4 ATS this season

The Seahawks are 4-0 at home this season

Weather:

High 40s with a few showers (35% chance for precipitation)  and winds blowing South at 9mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Seahawks lead 3-2 but Cardinals have won the last two-straight

Average margin of victory of all games: 8.0

Last Match-Up: Cardinals beat the Seahawks 37-34 in Arizona on 10/25/20

Notable Injuries:

Cardinals:

Maxx Williams , TE (ankle – questionable)

Darrell Daniels , TE (ankle – questionable)

Jordan Phillips , DE (hamstring – out)

Seahawks:

Chris Carson , RB (foot – questionable but unlikely to play)

Travis Homer, RB (knee/wrist -- doubtful)

Tyler Lockett , WR (knee – questionable but expected to play)

Ethan Pocic , C (concussion – out)

Shaquill Griffin , DB (hamstring – out)

Quinton Dunbar , DB (knee – out)

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Cardinals:

vs Pass: 13th    

vs Run: 11th

Seahawks:

vs Pass: 26th   

vs Run: 9th   

Prop Bets to Watch:

The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders, Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.

  • Russell Wilson Passing Yards: 315.5 (over & under -112); TD Passes: 2.5 (over +110, under -139); Rushing Yards: 30.5 (over -125, under +101)
  • Kyler Murray Passing Yards: 280.5 (over & under -112); TD Passes: 1.5 (over -182; under +145); Rushing Yards: 57.5 (over -124, under +100)
  • Kenyan Drake Rushing Yards: 47.5 (over -118, under -106); Receiving Yards: 7.5 (over +110, under -137)
  • Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards: 23.5 (over -125, under +101); Receiving Yards: 19.5 (over -134, under +108)
  • DK Metcalf Receiving Yards: 79.5 (over & under -112)
  • DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards: 86.5 (over -118, under -106)
  • Larry Fitzgerald Receiving Yards: 35.5 (over & under -112)
  • Christian Kirk Receiving Yards: 48.5 (over & under -112)
  • Andy Isabella Receiving Yards: 16.5 (over & under -112)
  • Greg Olsen Receiving Yards: 24.5 (over -106, under -118)

MVP/Captain

Kyler Murray , QB ARI – Why wouldn’t you use him in the Captain’s seat? He’s slinging the rock beautifully and facing one of the absolute worst pass defenses that is also playing short-handed. He’s also averaging roughly 67 rushing yards per game and has 10 rushing touchdowns of his own. In fact, when these teams met earlier, Murray threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 67 yards and another score. He’ll be super-chalky, but likely worth it.

Russell Wilson , QB SEA – Well, if you’re not going to use Murray, then you should probably look to Wilson for the top spot. The shortcomings on defense have Wilson throwing pretty heavily and he’s also doing a little more running than usual. The Seahawks may try attacking on the ground early, but this game, if the weather isn’t too bad, profiles as a shootout. Remember, he threw for 388 yards and three touchdowns when these teams squared off earlier this season. Three picks, yes, but that’s not scaring anyone off.

DK Metcalf, WR SEA – While Murray has an array of targets he likes to hit, Wilson has one primary in Metcalf and he should feed him often in this game. Tyler Lockett should play even though he’s been hobbled all week with a knee issue, so he should help draw coverage away enough to free Metcalf. Is there anything we really need to say about this guy’s talent? The guy is a beast and a likely late first-round pick in fantasy next season.

Mid-Tier

DeAndre Hopkins , WR ARI – He’s coming off a spectacular game against the Bills that culminated with his Hail Mary catch to win it in the final seconds. The banged-up Seattle secondary is going to have a ton of trouble with him, just like last time when he torched them for 103 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches. You’ll need some bargain plays to help fit his salary, but you know he’ll be worth the effort.

Christian Kirk , WR ARI – The last time he faced the Seahawks, the yardage was weak – just 37 yards on five catches – but he found his way into the end zone twice. He’ll be a popular play being cheaper than Hopkins or Metcalf, but not cheap enough that he’s saving you anything in salary. You could use him as your Captain if you want to save something, though.

Carlos Hyde , RB SEA – He’s expected to be active tonight and is the better player compared to Alex Colllins or DeeJay Dallas. I think the Seahawks try to open the game returning to their roots as a run-first team. Pete Carroll hasn’t said anything about limiting his workload, so if you want a reasonably priced guy to help fit the big boys, he could be an interesting option.

Chase Edmonds , RB ARI – I prefer Edmonds to Drake, but funny enough, I prefer to use Edmonds when Drake is in the lineup. That usually pushes Edmonds to the pass-catching work and the outside zone runs which is where he is most effective. Even just a cursory glance at his game log will show you how he performs with and without Drake in the lineup so let’s root for Drake’s return and get Edmonds into our lineups. He’s also priced down from Drake which makes it even more helpful.

Dart Throws

Andy Isabella , WR ARI – He’s a cheap alternative inside Arizona’s passing game, so if you’re looking to save some salary, he’s got a nice match-up coming out of the slot. It’s got risk attached as he doesn’t see the snaps that Hopkins or Kirk gets, but he’s also that low-owned guy who could pop in such a favorable match-up.

Greg Olsen , TE SEA – Arizona is allowing roughly nine catches for 50 yards per game to the tight end position and we’ve seen Olsen get those red zone looks. He’s not what he once was, but with Lockett banged-up and maybe not at 100% we could see some end zone dancing from Olsen this week. It’s definitely more of a contrarian play

Freddie Swain, WR SEA – Some will pivot to David Moore who also serves as a cheaper alternative within the passing game, but Swain is really priced down and the rookie is starting to see targets. Wilson looked his way four times last week while the Rams were clamping down on Metcalf and Lockett, and he caught three for 37 yards. If Lockett’s knee acts up, Swain could see an increase in snaps this week.