Welcome to the Monday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 10!

Right off the bat, I will tell you that I feel the same way about this game as I did last Thursday with the Colts and the Titans. I took the Bears +2.5 in the Westgate Supercontest and while the line is now 3.5, I still see the game the same way. We all know what the Vikings are going to do. Just like Tennessee did with Derrick Henry , they will run the ball heavily with Dalvin Cook . And just like the Colts defense, the Bears will be ready for it. Yes, Henry managed 100 yards in the game, but he failed to find the end zone and did you see how many bone-crushing hits he took behind the line of scrimmage? Cook is in for a bruising night in the cold of Chicago and I am all-in on the Bears defense.

On the offensive front for Chicago, there are a lot of moving parts – gross-looking moving parts. The backfield will be a three-headed monster with Lamar Miller coming off the practice squad to join Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall while a questionable Allen Robinson , who is expected to play, could yield some targets to guys like Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller . Selecting players for tonight’s showdown, at least on the Bears side, could be a roll of the dice.

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Spread: Vikings -3.5

O/U: 43.5

Betting Facts:

Line opened at Chicago -2 but quickly flipped to Vikings -2.5

Money Line: Vikings -186; Bears +160

Vikings are 5-3 against the spread this season

Vikings are 4-16 in Chicago since 2000

Kirk Cousins is 0-9 on Monday Night Football

The UNDER has hit in six of the Bears nine games this season

Weather: Low 40s, partly cloudy with 5% chance of precipitation and winds WNW at 10 mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Bears lead series 4-1 with wins in the last four-straight

Average Margin of Victory – 8.8

Last Match-Up – Bears beat the Vikings 21-19 in Minnesota on 12/29/2019

Notable Injuries:

Vikings:

Bears:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Vikings:

vs Pass: 13th

vs Run: 19th   

Bears:

vs Pass: 4th

vs Run: 7th

Prop Bets to Watch:

The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders, Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.

  • Kirk Cousins Passing Yards: 222.5 (over +100, under -124); TD Passes: 1.5 (over -104, under -121)
  • Nick Foles Passing Yards: 270.5 (over +110, under -137); TD Passes: 1.5 (over -137, under +110)
  • Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards: 86.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 16.5 (over -137, under +110)
  • Adam Thielen Receiving Yards: 59.5 (over -106, under -118)
  • Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards: 53.5 (over -118, under -106)
  • Chad Beebe Receiving Yards: 11.5 (over & under -112)
  • Allen Robinson Receiving Yards: 67.5 (over -148, under +118)
  • Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards: 42.5 (over -125, under +100)
  • Kyle Rudolph Receiving Yards: 29.5 (over & under -112)
  • Jimmy Graham Receiving Yards: 35.5 (over & under -112)

MVP/Captain

Chicago Bears Defense – The Bears defense gives up an average of 116.7 rushing yards per game but they have only allowed six rushing touchdowns on the season. With the struggles of Kirk Cousins both in Chicago and on Monday Night Football, they should focus more heavily on Dalvin Cook and force Cousins to beat them through the air. With 20 sacks, five interceptions and four forced-fumble recoveries, they should be able to rack up some big points for you.

Dalvin Cook , RB MIN – Is there really anything we need to say about Cook and his abilities? If you don’t agree with me that this game could go in the same direction as the Colts/Titans game, then make the investment in Cook for your top spot.

Allen Robinson , WR CHI – There is some risk as Robinson has been limited all week with a knee injury. But the Vikings corners are an absolute mess due to injuries and they just don’t have the ability to cover Robinson even if he’s at like 80-percent health. We are also assuming Bill Lazor gets ARob much more involved in the early parts of the game, something Matt Nagy always failed to do.

Mid-Tier

Nick Foles , QB CHI – With such a decrepit backfield, the onus will be on Foles to win this game for the Bears. Hopefully, he and Lazor have spent enough time talking game plan to get this figured out. If so, we could see a much more vibrant offense which will focus on abusing a bad Vikings secondary.

Darnell Mooney, WR CHI – The Vikings lost rookie DB Cameron Dantzler to a concussion which means Kris Boyd and Chris Jones are likely to be the outside corners. There is a chance they pull Jeff Gladney off the slot and have him focus on Robinson, but either way, Mooney is in a nice spot to see a boatload of targets. Not sure you want both him and ARob in the same lineup, so if you fade Robinson, be sure to use Mooney.

Justin Jefferson, WR MIN – The big weakness for the Bears secondary is their slot corner, Buster Skrine . Jefferson has actually run routes out of the slot 41-percent of the time this season, so he should be moved there a little more often tonight than Adam Thielen . Between that and facing Jaylon Johnson on the outside, Jefferson could be in for the majority of targets on the Minnesota side.

Dart Throws

Cordarrelle Patterson , RB/WR CHI – Who doesn’t live a good revenge-game narrative, amirite? OK, maybe not, but it’s very difficult to imagine Lamar Miller is going to see a boatload of carries during his first action of the season. Patterson should see carries and targets throughout this game and if he does have a chip on his shoulder, I want him in my lineups.

Chad Beebe , WR MIN – Like I said, the big weakness of the Bears secondary is Skrine. If the Vikings do struggle in this one like the Titans did against the Colts, then why not give a look at their primary slot receiver? Beebe doesn’t get a lot of work in this offense usually, but if the Bears sell out to stop the run, the Vikings could land in more three-receiver sets.

Lamar Miller , RB CHI – He’s crazy cheap on the slate and the Bears will give him a look. At his price you can get an awful lot of top talent into your lineup. Expect him to be chalky as the masses flock to the “shiny new toy” even those he’s older and broken.