While we don’t get another Monday night doubleheader, we do get a fantastic match-up between the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs with a great chance to win some money with our NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football.

Under the guidance of Klint Kubiak, the Saints have been an offensive juggernaut and will be a true test for the Chiefs run defense and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They have incredible firepower both on the ground and through the air. But you never want to count out Patrick Mahomes.

 

 

 

While he is dealing with the loss of Rashee Rice, he still has Travis Kelce and upstart rookie Xavier Worthy at his disposal. Game flow is going to be important as we line up our NFL predictions, as will some of the recent against-the-spread data we’ll explore before making our NFL picks and finalizing our card for the NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Monday Night Football, 10/7

Another interconference match-up means limited head-to-head data for us to dissect and use for our NFL picks. These teams haven’t played each other since 2020, so the Chiefs having won the last three doesn’t give us as much of an impact. The Chiefs are predominantly the same, but the Saints are a vastly different team from what they once were, from the coaches to the personnel on the field. Considering their transformation, that matters a lot. 

This season, the 4-0 Chiefs are 2-1-1 against the spread and 1-1 ATS at home. They do happen to be 0-1-1 when favored by more than three points this season and 0-1 at home when favored by more than three. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-2 straight-up but happen to be 3-1 against the spread and are 1-1 ATS on the road. 

They are, however, 2-0 against the spread as an underdog, so the fact that the Chiefs have struggled to cover larger spreads at home might be something we’ll incorporate with our NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football. Before we finalize that, let’s set up our NFL predictions with some game-flow breakdown.

 

 

 

Monday Night Football Prediction: Monday, October 7th  

As we look to make our NFL predictions and finalize our NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football, we need to look at what we expect both teams to do. We know Klint Kubiak is going to want to lead with Alvin Kamara and the Saints rushing attack, but it’s certainly worth noting the Chiefs rank second in DVOA against the run and are allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and have allowed just two touchdowns on the ground this season. 

Chris Jones and George Karlaftis are intimidating forces on the defensive line, but Kubiak is likely to incorporate a lot more outside-zone plays and try to utilize the speed to push the ball outside and up.

The Chiefs rank 19th in DVOA against the pass and we’ve seen some weaknesses exposed when the opposition is throwing away from Trent McDuffie. The short, high-percentage passes Derek Carr has been using to locate Chirs Olave might go to the backburner as a result which could open up some bigger plays downfield. 

Deep shots to Rashid Shaheed are certainly in order, but to move the chains, we may see more targets go towards Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. If Carr can get on the same page as his alternate pass-catchers, the Saints should keep this one close and maybe even turn it into an upset.

The Chiefs are going to have to attack early and find a way to jump out to a quick lead. They need to take the running game away from the Saints and to do that, game-flowing the rushing attack out is needed. How they do that is going to be the question. 

On the ground, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is likely to get real creative with Kareem Hunt. The Saints rank eighth in DVOA against the run, seventh in rushing yards per game allowed and sixth against running back pass-plays. If they struggle to move the ball on the ground, you can expect Mahomes to take over.

The biggest weakness of the Saints pass-coverage just happens to be the biggest strength for the Chiefs. They rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end, allow an average of 51.3 receiving yards per game to the position and are dealing with linebacker injuries to Willie Gay (out) and Pete Werner (questionable). With no Rashee Rice, expect a very heavy lean on Travis Kelce, like we saw last week.

But Kelce is not going to be able to do it on his own. Given the shortcomings on defense for New Orleans, we can probably expect Noah Gray more involved as well. But while rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy has and will do his part, we need to see something out of JuJu Smith-Schuster and/or Justin Watson. If the Chiefs can get more out of their fringe pass-catchers, then they can come out on top. 

But can they cover the 5.5-point spread? Let’s make our NFL picks and finalize our NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Monday, October 7th  

Two great teams, two high-level offenses and two great defenses – that’s what we’re looking at here. Everything about this game profiles it as a close contest. 

Road dogs on Monday night are 3-3 against the spread, but while the Vegas odds seem to think the Chiefs have a significantly bigger edge, I’m happy to take the points. 

The over is 3-1 in Saints games this season and 2-2 in Chiefs games. You would think, with such strong defensive units and the usual curse of prime-time games that we would tilt towards the under, but this game opened at 46 and has subsequently dropped all the way down to 43. 

I get the rationale, but given the strengths of both offenses, the total just seems a little too low.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/7

**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

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