NFL Week 8 kicks off with a fantastic Thursday Night Football match-up. Josh Allen and the Bills are seeking redemption for their loss last week, and will play host to Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Despite some recent movement, this remains one of the largest spreads this week and with that always comes the fear of the back-door cover. The Bills are hungry, and maybe even a little bit desperate after last week’s loss, as they look to firm up their record and make that push to a playoff-friendly record while the Bucs find themselves fighting for the divisional title in the NFC South. There’s plenty riding on this game, so let’s see how we want to bet it against the spread and what player props look best for us.

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills

The Spread: Bills -9.5

This line opened at Bills minus-10 and, at one point, dropped down to minus-8.5. It has since gone back up, though it really hasn’t leveled off yet as money coming in keeps shifting that half-point down. As for particulars, the Bills are 3-4 against the spread this season and have failed to cover in each of its last three games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 3-3 ATS and have failed to cover in three of their last four, including their last wo games. So that clears up absolutely nothing, does it? Buffalo has been a tough team to watch this year as they failed to make any real strong improvements on offense from last year and they’ve been dealing with a number of injuries in their secondary. They are probably a better team than they’ve looked, but they are a tough team to trust even if you believe they’re going to redeem themselves from last week’s loss. The Bucs got off to a surprisingly strong start this season, but have recently come back to Earth with back-to-back losses in which they totaled just 19 points. I don’t see the Bills losing this one, but with their defensive issues, I’m having a tough time believing this game doesn’t either stay closer than we think or that the Bucs sneak in for a back-door cover. Pick: Buccaneers +9.5 (-110) 

The Total: 43.5

This is a tough number as I believe we are falling right into the area where this game finishes. Surprisingly, the over is 4-3 on Thursday Night Football but considering the strengths of Tampa Bay on defense – they rank 14th in DVOA against the pass and 11th against the run – and the struggles we’ve seen with the Buffalo offense, I think things can be contained. I’m also not enamored by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense and while the Bills defense has had its struggles, I don’t believe in the Tamp offense enough to say barn-burner. Back-door cover strength? Yes. High-scoring affair? Probably not. Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) 

Favorite Thursday Night Football Player Props:

**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM

 

 

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