NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Picks for Monday Night Football
NFL Week 10 concludes tonight with a very interesting Monday Night Football game as Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos head to upstate New York to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. It’s an interesting match-up, especially with regard to betting the game, because these two teams have been trending in opposite directions and people’s confidence in the Bills, except for Bills Mafia of course, is waning. The Broncos have won their last two games, most recently against the Kansas City Chiefs, and are well-rested and well-prepared coming off a bye. The Bills have lost two of their last three and have had their struggles on both sides of the ball. Do we believe what we’ve seen or do we look at this game differently? The Bills are favored here at home and we know what the Monday Night Football betting trends against the spread and game total have been, so let’s make some game picks and find a few player props to turn ourselves a nice profit and finish the week strong.
NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
The Spread: Bills -7
There is so much talk about how the Bills have been struggling and how Denver has seemingly turned their world around. They’ve stifled Patrick Mahomes twice in their last three games and their defense has allowed an average of 15 points over that span. They’re rested from the bye and ready to take Buffalo by storm. The Bills, on the other hand, are struggling through this season having lost two of three and three of their last five. But the Broncos are 2-5-1 against the spread this season and the Bills are 3-6 so something has to give, right? While I haven’t tracked the public-money movement, the fact that only 60-percent are on the Bills minus the seven points tells me more people are buying into the narrative that the Broncos have a fighting chance in this one and, frankly, I just don’t see it. Allen is a big rebound guy, so coming off a loss to the Bengals, I see him putting this team on his back and leading them to victory. While I think they can cover the touchdown, I’ll take a bit more juice to ensure I get the win and turn to the alt spread in this one.
Pick: Bills -6.5 (-125 BetMGM)
The Total: 47.5
The under is 10-1 on Monday Night Football, 6-3 in Bills games and 4-4 in Broncos games, so it’s of no surprise that 86-percent of the public money is on the under. It actually might be a pretty safe bet to just go with the trend, especially because I think the Bills win this one pretty handily and Von Miller terrorizes his former team. A 28-17 game doesn’t seem so far-fetched here, does it? Maybe 31-14? Either way, I don’t feel the need to be too contrarian here.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-110 BetMGM/Caesars)
Favorite Monday Night Football Player Props:
- Dalton Kincaid over 52.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM))
- Josh Allen over 33.5 pass attempts (-145 Caesars)
- Courtland Sutton over 3.5 receptions (-115 Caesars)
- Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (+110 BetMGM)
- Josey Jewell over 6.5 tackles + assists (-140 BetMGM)
Player News
Chiefs released TE Anthony Firkser.
Firkser joined the Chiefs’ practice squad halfway through the 2024 season after he was released by the Jets. He appeared in three games for the Chiefs and four for the Jets, not seeing a target and primarily playing special teams last season. The 30-year-old veteran last caught a pass in the NFL for the Falcons in 2022 and was a productive rotational tight end for the Titans from 2018-2021. Now a free agent, Firkser will look to support a team’s tight end depth in 2025.
Bills signed WR Elijah Moore, formerly of the Browns, to a one-year contract.
Cleveland placed the rarely-used free agent tender on Moore earlier this week, allowing the Browns to potentially net a compensatory pick if he signed elsewhere. Moore’s visit with the Bills proved fruitful and he will now play for “up to” $5 million. Moore struggled to find his footing after the Jets traded him to Cleveland and he went for a measly 538 yards in 2024. He will now get another chance to reset things in Buffalo, but Moore is far from a guarantee for playing time with the Bills.
Patriots did not exercise the OL Cole Strange’s fifth-year team option for 2026.
The move, or lack thereof, doesn’t come as a surprise. Strange was a stunning first-round selection by Bill Belichick in 2022, with Sean McVay saying he thought the Rams would have a shot at landing Strange with the 104th pick. Strange suffered a torn patellar tendon late in the 2023 season that cost him most of 2024. A left guard by trade, Strange made two starts at center last year. A replacement-level player at best, Strange enters his contract year in need of a breakout season.
Cowboys waived RB Malik Davis.
Clearing roster space for their rookie class, the Cowboys also parted ways with OG Jack Anderson, LB Brock Mogensen, and OT Earl Bostick Jr. Davis spent 2024 on the Cowboys’ practice squad and signed a reserve/futures contract with them at the end of the season. He is a long-shot to make an NFL roster this year.
Jets QB Jordan Travis retired from the NFL after one season.
Travis suffered a catastrophic ankle injury late in his final season at Florida State in 2023. The Jets took a shot on him in the fifth round of the draft, but Travis suffered a setback in his recovery and did not play as a rookie. In his statement via the team, Travis said his leg never responded the way he had hoped and the medical staff advised him to return. It’s a sad ending for a player who had a future in the NFL before his tragic injury.
Packers have exercised DT Devonte Wyatt’s fifth-year team option for 2026.
The 27-year-old, who was the 28th overall pick in 2022, has played in 47 games in three seasons with the Packers, recording 12.5 sacks, including five in 2024. Wyatt, who will make $13.9 million in 2026 (per OverTheCap), was the Packers’ highest-graded defensive lineman last season, per PFF.