NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Picks for Monday Night Football

NFL Week 10 concludes tonight with a very interesting Monday Night Football game as Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos head to upstate New York to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. It’s an interesting match-up, especially with regard to betting the game, because these two teams have been trending in opposite directions and people’s confidence in the Bills, except for Bills Mafia of course, is waning. The Broncos have won their last two games, most recently against the Kansas City Chiefs, and are well-rested and well-prepared coming off a bye. The Bills have lost two of their last three and have had their struggles on both sides of the ball. Do we believe what we’ve seen or do we look at this game differently? The Bills are favored here at home and we know what the Monday Night Football betting trends against the spread and game total have been, so let’s make some game picks and find a few player props to turn ourselves a nice profit and finish the week strong.
NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
The Spread: Bills -7
There is so much talk about how the Bills have been struggling and how Denver has seemingly turned their world around. They’ve stifled Patrick Mahomes twice in their last three games and their defense has allowed an average of 15 points over that span. They’re rested from the bye and ready to take Buffalo by storm. The Bills, on the other hand, are struggling through this season having lost two of three and three of their last five. But the Broncos are 2-5-1 against the spread this season and the Bills are 3-6 so something has to give, right? While I haven’t tracked the public-money movement, the fact that only 60-percent are on the Bills minus the seven points tells me more people are buying into the narrative that the Broncos have a fighting chance in this one and, frankly, I just don’t see it. Allen is a big rebound guy, so coming off a loss to the Bengals, I see him putting this team on his back and leading them to victory. While I think they can cover the touchdown, I’ll take a bit more juice to ensure I get the win and turn to the alt spread in this one.
Pick: Bills -6.5 (-125 BetMGM)
The Total: 47.5
The under is 10-1 on Monday Night Football, 6-3 in Bills games and 4-4 in Broncos games, so it’s of no surprise that 86-percent of the public money is on the under. It actually might be a pretty safe bet to just go with the trend, especially because I think the Bills win this one pretty handily and Von Miller terrorizes his former team. A 28-17 game doesn’t seem so far-fetched here, does it? Maybe 31-14? Either way, I don’t feel the need to be too contrarian here.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-110 BetMGM/Caesars)
Favorite Monday Night Football Player Props:
- Dalton Kincaid over 52.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM))
- Josh Allen over 33.5 pass attempts (-145 Caesars)
- Courtland Sutton over 3.5 receptions (-115 Caesars)
- Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (+110 BetMGM)
- Josey Jewell over 6.5 tackles + assists (-140 BetMGM)
Player News
The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reports that Kyren Williams’ contract extension “could be worked out by the end of training camp,” but notes that “the Rams will not pay top-market money for a running back.”
Rodrigue believes that the two sides’ continued contract talk “is a good sign” for an early extension. “Williams is a team leader and one of the more productive at his position,” but “he doesn’t hit ‘home run’ explosives,” which hurts his negotiating power, particularly at a position considered low-value by some. Still, Williams’ overall productivity works in his favor. Rodrigue notes, “training camp is the usual timeline for such deals under this era of Rams leadership,” giving fantasy managers an expected timeline to follow.
Patriots LB Jahlani Tavai stayed in New England following June’s mandatory minicamp to rehab his calf injury “in hopes of being ready for the start of training camp.”
The Patriots’ first training camp practice is scheduled for July 23rd. This report fails to provide clarity on Tavai’s expected participation status, though ESPN’s Mike Reiss does list LBs Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens as Tavai’s “projected top competition” for the No. 2 inside linebacker job. Free agent signee, LB Robert Spillane, is locked into the No. 1 spot.
The NFLPA released a statement in support of Executive Director Lloyd Howell.
Howell came under scrutiny after it was revealed last week that he worked part-time as a paid consultant for The Carlyle Group, which is a private equity firm. On Sunday, the NFLPA released a statement that it rejects “attempts to mischaracterize the committee’s views or divide membership” regarding this news, while adding any reports of the NFLPA calling for Howell to step down are false. It would appear Howell, who was appointed to his position in 2023, will remain in his role for the upcoming season.
Browns RB Quinshon Judkins was charged with misdemeanor domestic battery in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Details around Judkins’ arrest continue to emerge. On Sunday, Sergeant David Soika of the shared that upon arriving at the scene where the reported crime took place, officers determined after speaking to the victim that a battery occurred, which led to the arrest of Judkins soon after. The rookie second-rounder remained in police custody overnight and is scheduled to have an initial hearing on Sunday. As ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio points out, Judkins is sure to face scrutiny from the NFL under the league’s Personal Conduct Policy, while Florio also notes that “the baseline punishment for a battery is six games,” which can vary based on other factors. Judkins has not yet signed his rookie deal, and will likely take less guaranteed money than he hoped for following his arrest, which could cause a trickle-down effect for the 29 other rookie second-rounders who have yet to sign their deal. Judkins was expected to compete for the Browns’ RB1 spot in training camp, and while he will still get a chance to do so, fantasy managers should remain open to the possibility of a suspension being handed down at some point this season. In any case, Jerome Ford rookie Dylan Sampson would both see slight boosts to their fantasy stocks if Judkins were to miss any time.
Browns RB Quinshon Judkins has been arrested and held on domestic violence charges in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Judkins was booked on Saturday and remains in custody as of this evening. ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi reports Judkins’ initial court appearance will come Sunday morning. The Browns have said they are “aware and gathering more details.” Judkins’ arrest comes on the eve of training camp, and gets his professional career off to the worst possible start. A lengthy stay on the commissioner’s exempt list would be all but guaranteed if the charges stick. A suspension would then follow if he were convicted or admitted guilt. The situation should be updated on Sunday.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Chargers second-round WR Tre Harris did not report with fellow rookies.
That effectively makes Harris a holdout, something that has become common practice for second-round players amidst ongoing negotiations regarding guaranteed money. 30 of the 32 second-round selections from the 2025 NFL Draft have yet to sign their rookie contracts, with Harris now the first official holdout after the Chargers’ rookie report date came and went. This appears to be nothing more than “just business,” but fantasy managers will want to track the ongoing behind-the-scenes saga unfolding this year.