NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Picks for Monday Night Football

NFL Week 10 concludes tonight with a very interesting Monday Night Football game as Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos head to upstate New York to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. It’s an interesting match-up, especially with regard to betting the game, because these two teams have been trending in opposite directions and people’s confidence in the Bills, except for Bills Mafia of course, is waning. The Broncos have won their last two games, most recently against the Kansas City Chiefs, and are well-rested and well-prepared coming off a bye. The Bills have lost two of their last three and have had their struggles on both sides of the ball. Do we believe what we’ve seen or do we look at this game differently? The Bills are favored here at home and we know what the Monday Night Football betting trends against the spread and game total have been, so let’s make some game picks and find a few player props to turn ourselves a nice profit and finish the week strong.
NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
The Spread: Bills -7
There is so much talk about how the Bills have been struggling and how Denver has seemingly turned their world around. They’ve stifled Patrick Mahomes twice in their last three games and their defense has allowed an average of 15 points over that span. They’re rested from the bye and ready to take Buffalo by storm. The Bills, on the other hand, are struggling through this season having lost two of three and three of their last five. But the Broncos are 2-5-1 against the spread this season and the Bills are 3-6 so something has to give, right? While I haven’t tracked the public-money movement, the fact that only 60-percent are on the Bills minus the seven points tells me more people are buying into the narrative that the Broncos have a fighting chance in this one and, frankly, I just don’t see it. Allen is a big rebound guy, so coming off a loss to the Bengals, I see him putting this team on his back and leading them to victory. While I think they can cover the touchdown, I’ll take a bit more juice to ensure I get the win and turn to the alt spread in this one.
Pick: Bills -6.5 (-125 BetMGM)
The Total: 47.5
The under is 10-1 on Monday Night Football, 6-3 in Bills games and 4-4 in Broncos games, so it’s of no surprise that 86-percent of the public money is on the under. It actually might be a pretty safe bet to just go with the trend, especially because I think the Bills win this one pretty handily and Von Miller terrorizes his former team. A 28-17 game doesn’t seem so far-fetched here, does it? Maybe 31-14? Either way, I don’t feel the need to be too contrarian here.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-110 BetMGM/Caesars)
Favorite Monday Night Football Player Props:
- Dalton Kincaid over 52.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM))
- Josh Allen over 33.5 pass attempts (-145 Caesars)
- Courtland Sutton over 3.5 receptions (-115 Caesars)
- Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (+110 BetMGM)
- Josey Jewell over 6.5 tackles + assists (-140 BetMGM)
Player News
Free agent WR Chase Claypool revealed the severity of the toe injury he suffered in July 2024.
In a social media post, the 26-year-old receiver explains that he “tore a ligament and tendon” in his second toe on his left foot and has “been rehabbing, working out, and recovering everyday for the past year.” This explains his extended absence. Following the injury, Claypool was briefly placed on injured reserve in August 2024 before being released with an injury settlement. He is “back to being the strongest and fastest” he’s ever been and is “excited to step back out on the field.”
Free agent LB Jason Pierre-Paul hopes to sign with an NFL team, ideally the Giants, in “a full-circle moment.”
Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, “Pierre-Paul still believes he can help a team, that he can be a veteran closer.” The 36-year-old has continued training to remain NFL-ready despite failing to find a suitor for the 2024 season. He logged 22 defensive snaps, playing for both the Saints and Dolphins in 2023. His last sack occurred as a Raven, in a Wild Card Weekend loss to the Bengals in the prior season. Sitting at 94.5 career sacks, Pierre-Paul hopes to reach 100 as a part-time player in 2025.
The CFL’s Toronto Argonauts claimed Shedeur Sanders’ negotiating rights in case Sanders one day chooses to leave the NFL for the CFL.
There is no indication that Sanders is in contact with the Argonauts and we do not expect Sanders to leave the NFL for the CFL at this time. Every year in early July, just before NFL training camps begin, the CFL allows its teams to claim NFL players’ negotiating rights, on the off chance that the player is released or waived by his team and decides to pursue a career in Canada. Per the CFL’s Marshall Ferguson, “the CFL began releasing a few names here and there periodically, but now the full list is available for all to see from each of the nine teams.” Fans can rest assured that their high-profile, fifth-round rookie remains a Cleveland Brown.
Free agent CB Stephon Gilmore wants to play football in “the right situation” this season.
The 34-year-old veteran visited the Cowboys pre-draft but left without a contract. Gilmore is no longer an above-average starter, but he did force eight incompletions and record one interception last year. A playoff contender could benefit from signing Gilmore as an experienced option, but teams tend to not have high valuations on older cornerbacks.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport reports that Titans QB Cam Ward is adjusting to the NFL’s speed and field width while learning how to adjust protection against the blitz.
Ward is learning through trial and error, as many rookies do. The young quarterback is now aware that an open receiver in the NFL looks far different than it did in college, even when targeting a linebacker’s coverage. The NFL’s condensed field spacing has also reportedly required Ward to improve his awareness against the blitz. Per Davenport, Ward successfully showcased a lightbulb moment in this regard, which occurred “during team period when Ward recognized where the pressure was coming from and checked to a different protection to block it up.” Ward also notably signaled an audible to Calvin Ridley and connected with the veteran receiver for a touchdown. These are positive steps for a quarterback who currently profiles as a QB2 in re-draft formats.
Speaking to Rich Eisen about the Steelers’ contract talks with EDGE T.J. Watt, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said the “most likely” outcome is that the two sides agree to an extension that resets the market before the season opener.
Pelissero recently reported that the Steelers do not plan to trade Watt, and Watt’s record-setting goals are well known, so the most recent report makes sense. The team will do its best to ensure team-friendly outs exist later in the deal, but for now, Watt appears to be on track for a hefty payday sometime before September 7th. Pelissero states succinctly, Watt’s expected extension “is going to be north of Myles Garrett—it is going to be upwards of $40 million per year.”