Best Super Bowl Bets: Super Bowl 58 Picks Against the Spread
The time has finally come – it's Super Bowl Week! After a grueling 17-game regular season followed by consequent playoff games, the two teams that have yet to waver to this point are the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. They meet for all the marbles on Sunday, February 11.
We're sharing our best Super Bowl bets for the big game, but one of these always reigns supreme: the 49ers vs. Chiefs pick against the spread.
Best Super Bowl Bets: 49ers vs. Chiefs Spread Pick
Interestingly enough, favorites actually have a slight edge for Super Bowls in this particular betting market over the years, but how many of those faced a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs squad? Better yet, how many of those have faced THIS Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs squad?
The reason this gets brought into play is because KC seems to be a team on a mission this season, and the switch clearly flipped once playoff time came about. Including the postseason, the Chiefs are a solid 12-7-1 ATS in this campaign and have covered in 5 consecutive outings. Plus, Kansas City also comes into this game with a 3-0 mark ATS as the underdog this season.
Even with that being said, we have to look at the other side of the equation as well. The 49ers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL and have a chance to finally hoist the ever-elusive Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1994. Their offense is as high-octane as ever, anchored by an absolute beast in RB Christian McCaffrey. He should have a solid game against an average-at-best run defense for KC. So, how did our staff net out in their Super Bowl bets against the spread?
When it comes to a 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction regarding the spread, our staff was, for the most part, all on the same page.
49ers vs. Chiefs Pick Against the Spread
We just touched on how favorites have been more dominant in Super Bowls from years’ past, but San Francisco might not be able to continue that trend in this one. They’re a lackluster 9-10 ATS this season and haven’t covered since Week 17 of the regular season, coming against the Commanders.
The Chiefs are certainly not the Commanders. They’re a much more well-oiled machine that thrives in this type of situation. All in all, of the 18 Fantasy Alarm staff members that were asked to submit a pick, just 4 of them sided with the 49ers against the spread.
With 14 staff members choosing the Chiefs side of their 49ers vs. Chiefs pick against the spread, we're going to plant our flag with this strong majority and pick the reigning champs to cover.
Fantasy Alarm Super Bowl 58 ATS Pick: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl Picks Against The Spread: Staff Predictions
Our four leading NFL analysts - Howard Bender, Jim Bowden, Jon Impemba and Andrew Cooper - are all picking KC’s side of the spread for Super Bowl LVIII.
Here's how our entire staff picked:
- Howard Bender: Chiefs +2
- Jim Bowden: Chiefs +2
- Jon Impemba: Chiefs +2
- James Grande: 49ers -2
- Andrew Cooper: Chiefs +2
- Dan Malin: 49ers -2
- Matt Selz: Chiefs +2
- Colby Conway: 49ers -2
- Iggy Gilbert: Chiefs +2
- Joe Gallina: Chiefs +2
- Ryan Kirksey: Chiefs +2
- Ray Kuhn: Chiefs +2
- Josh Wagner: 49ers -2
- Kevin Tompkins: Chiefs +2
- JB Barry: Chiefs +2
- Mike Iannone: Chiefs +2
- Chris Morais: Chiefs +2
- Andrew Phelps: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl Picks Against the Spread: History
Against the spread, favorites have gone 28-26-2 all time in the Super Bowl. The winning team traditionally is the same team that covers, as only 7 winning Super Bowl teams failed to cover the spread. Although favorites have covered more often than underdogs all time, recently, underdogs own a 15-8 ATS record over the last 23 Super Bowls.
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Player News
49ers signed No. 11 pick EDGE Mykel Williams to a four-year contract.
The deal is worth $24.9 million and is fully guaranteed. As is the case with all first-round picks, his contract includes a fifth-year option. The 49ers shed hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts this offseason and the bulk of those savings came on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive end was an obvious position of need and Williams was widely regarded as the best pass-rusher on the board when 49ers GM John Lynch was on the clock. Williams totaled five sacks in 2024 and left Georgia with 14 sacks across three seasons as a starter.
Vikings signed No. 24 pick OG Donovan Jackson to a four-year contract.
It’s a fully guaranteed deal worth $17.2 million with a fifth-year team option. Minnesota taking Jackson with the 24th-overall pick came as a bit of a surprise on draft night, but the Vikings needed offensive line help and Jackson was considered worthy of a first-round pick by some draftniks. He was primarily a left guard at Ohio State but successfully kicked out to tackle for the bulk of his senior season. Jackson is likely fated for guard duties in Minnesota, but the positional versatility remains a plus.
Titans claimed Anfernee Orji off waivers from the Saints.
Orji played primarily on special teams in New Orleans but was credited with two starts across 16 appearances. He totaled 30 combined tackles and a pair of TFLs. Orji will need to continue seeing work on special teams to make the Titans’ roster.
Patriots signed RB Trayveon Williams, formerly of the Bengals.
Henderson was passed on the Cincinnati depth chart by Chase Brown last year and the team even traded for Khalil Herbert midseason. Despite having no role on offense, Williams was active for all 17 games as a special teamer. He will likely hold a similar role in New England if he cracks the team’s 53-man roster.
Free agent RB Jordan Mims worked out for the Patriots.
The Pats also worked out former Bengals running back Trayveon Williams. Mims ran 20 times for 70 yards in 2024 while adding 12 catches for 71 yards through the air. He also got some run on special teams. The Patriots are looking for some extra depth at running back, but there isn’t room for another fantasy-relevant option behind Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson.
Jaguars signed TE Quintin Morris, formerly of the Bills, to a one-year contract.
Morris is purely a blocking tight end. He caught just 15 passes during his three years with the Bills, though he did manage to find the end zone three times. Morris will back up Brenton Strange in Jacksonville.