Best Super Bowl Bets: Super Bowl 58 Picks Against the Spread

The time has finally come – it's Super Bowl Week! After a grueling 17-game regular season followed by consequent playoff games, the two teams that have yet to waver to this point are the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. They meet for all the marbles on Sunday, February 11.
We're sharing our best Super Bowl bets for the big game, but one of these always reigns supreme: the 49ers vs. Chiefs pick against the spread.
Best Super Bowl Bets: 49ers vs. Chiefs Spread Pick
Interestingly enough, favorites actually have a slight edge for Super Bowls in this particular betting market over the years, but how many of those faced a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs squad? Better yet, how many of those have faced THIS Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs squad?
The reason this gets brought into play is because KC seems to be a team on a mission this season, and the switch clearly flipped once playoff time came about. Including the postseason, the Chiefs are a solid 12-7-1 ATS in this campaign and have covered in 5 consecutive outings. Plus, Kansas City also comes into this game with a 3-0 mark ATS as the underdog this season.
Even with that being said, we have to look at the other side of the equation as well. The 49ers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL and have a chance to finally hoist the ever-elusive Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1994. Their offense is as high-octane as ever, anchored by an absolute beast in RB Christian McCaffrey. He should have a solid game against an average-at-best run defense for KC. So, how did our staff net out in their Super Bowl bets against the spread?
When it comes to a 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction regarding the spread, our staff was, for the most part, all on the same page.
49ers vs. Chiefs Pick Against the Spread
We just touched on how favorites have been more dominant in Super Bowls from years’ past, but San Francisco might not be able to continue that trend in this one. They’re a lackluster 9-10 ATS this season and haven’t covered since Week 17 of the regular season, coming against the Commanders.
The Chiefs are certainly not the Commanders. They’re a much more well-oiled machine that thrives in this type of situation. All in all, of the 18 Fantasy Alarm staff members that were asked to submit a pick, just 4 of them sided with the 49ers against the spread.
With 14 staff members choosing the Chiefs side of their 49ers vs. Chiefs pick against the spread, we're going to plant our flag with this strong majority and pick the reigning champs to cover.
Fantasy Alarm Super Bowl 58 ATS Pick: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl Picks Against The Spread: Staff Predictions
Our four leading NFL analysts - Howard Bender, Jim Bowden, Jon Impemba and Andrew Cooper - are all picking KC’s side of the spread for Super Bowl LVIII.
Here's how our entire staff picked:
- Howard Bender: Chiefs +2
- Jim Bowden: Chiefs +2
- Jon Impemba: Chiefs +2
- James Grande: 49ers -2
- Andrew Cooper: Chiefs +2
- Dan Malin: 49ers -2
- Matt Selz: Chiefs +2
- Colby Conway: 49ers -2
- Iggy Gilbert: Chiefs +2
- Joe Gallina: Chiefs +2
- Ryan Kirksey: Chiefs +2
- Ray Kuhn: Chiefs +2
- Josh Wagner: 49ers -2
- Kevin Tompkins: Chiefs +2
- JB Barry: Chiefs +2
- Mike Iannone: Chiefs +2
- Chris Morais: Chiefs +2
- Andrew Phelps: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl Picks Against the Spread: History
Against the spread, favorites have gone 28-26-2 all time in the Super Bowl. The winning team traditionally is the same team that covers, as only 7 winning Super Bowl teams failed to cover the spread. Although favorites have covered more often than underdogs all time, recently, underdogs own a 15-8 ATS record over the last 23 Super Bowls.
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Player News
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Chargers RB Najee Harris is expected to be back on the field “sooner rather than later.”
Speaking on The Insiders on NFL Network, Rapoport relayed words from Harris’ agent that backed up previous reports that said the eye injury sustained by the veteran running back were superficial, adding that Harris is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season and should be back on the field “sooner rather than later.” Rapoport also stated that Harris is not expected to miss significant time. Even so, any missed time in camp could widen the expected snap rate gap between he and rookie first-round selection Omarion Hampton to start the regular season, something fantasy managers will want to keep an attentive eye on as the following weeks play out.
Chargers placed WR Mike Williams on the PUP list.
Players placed on the PUP list ahead of camp can come off at any time. Williams was dealing with an unspecified injury before the start of camp and was believed to be on track toward playing once camp kicked off. Clearly needing more time to recover, Williams will join WR Jaylen Johnson, S Elijah Molden, LB Del’Shawn Phillips, and OT Savion Washington on the PUP list as they continue to ready themselves for camp.
Jets signed WR Garrett Wilson to a four-year, $130 million contract extension.
Wilson’s deal includes $90 million in guaranteed money and will keep him with the Jets through the 2030 season. The former No. 10 overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has churned out three-straight seasons of 1,000-plus yards to start his career and posted career-highs in receptions (101), yards, (1,104), and touchdowns (7) last season. Now reunited with former college teammate Justin Fields, Wilson hopes the Jets can put together his first winning season as a pro and the Jets’ first winning season since 2015. Wilson profiles as a fringe WR1/WR2, but will likely settle more in the WR2 range in 2025 due to the Jets’ emphasis on the run and Fields’ ability to take off and scramble on passing downs.
Raiders waived QB Carter Bradley.
Bradley joined the Raiders last offseason as a rookie UDFA and spent all of last season on the practice squad before being promoted to the 53-man roster in December. The former South Alabama Jaguar didn’t attempt a pass in his rookie season and will now look to catch on with another team ahead of training camp in hopes of battling for a roster spot. Bradley may be better suited for a spring football league where he would have an opportunity for more playing time.
The Athletic’s Chad Graff believes Stefon Diggs (knee) will “likely open camp by working on the side until he’s cleared from his injury.
Diggs suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 of last season, but surprised during spring practices when he took the field in a limited capacity with the team. While he’s yet to be cleared for full football activities, Graff believes the encouraging spring we saw from Diggs may lead to some limited work to the side in camp while leaving the door open for Diggs to eventually participate in full closer to the end of camp. While opening the season on the PUP list, which would require him to miss a minimum of four games, remains a possibility, Diggs’ involvement in camp will be worth monitoring as the Patriots aim to get their WR1 back on the field.
The Fort Lauderdale Police Department released a report detailing additional information regarding Quinshon Judkins’ arrest for domestic battery over the weekend.
The full report can be found at the link provided at the end of the blurb, but the details are quite disturbing. Arresting officer Steven Pohorence reported that the victim of Judkins’ alleged assault reported the incident the day after it occurred, alleging Judkins “punched her in the mouth/chin area with a closed fist” while adding he later struck her in the arm and thigh. The victim also showed pictures of her chin/lip area, with officer Pohorence noting in the report “the bruising was clearly evident.” Bruises could also be found on her arm and thigh. This situation is far from resolved and could have a direct impact on Judkins’ availability for training camp as he remains unsigned at this time.