Best Super Bowl Bets: Super Bowl 58 Picks Against the Spread

The time has finally come – it's Super Bowl Week! After a grueling 17-game regular season followed by consequent playoff games, the two teams that have yet to waver to this point are the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. They meet for all the marbles on Sunday, February 11.
We're sharing our best Super Bowl bets for the big game, but one of these always reigns supreme: the 49ers vs. Chiefs pick against the spread.
Best Super Bowl Bets: 49ers vs. Chiefs Spread Pick
Interestingly enough, favorites actually have a slight edge for Super Bowls in this particular betting market over the years, but how many of those faced a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs squad? Better yet, how many of those have faced THIS Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs squad?
The reason this gets brought into play is because KC seems to be a team on a mission this season, and the switch clearly flipped once playoff time came about. Including the postseason, the Chiefs are a solid 12-7-1 ATS in this campaign and have covered in 5 consecutive outings. Plus, Kansas City also comes into this game with a 3-0 mark ATS as the underdog this season.
Even with that being said, we have to look at the other side of the equation as well. The 49ers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL and have a chance to finally hoist the ever-elusive Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1994. Their offense is as high-octane as ever, anchored by an absolute beast in RB Christian McCaffrey. He should have a solid game against an average-at-best run defense for KC. So, how did our staff net out in their Super Bowl bets against the spread?
When it comes to a 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction regarding the spread, our staff was, for the most part, all on the same page.
49ers vs. Chiefs Pick Against the Spread
We just touched on how favorites have been more dominant in Super Bowls from years’ past, but San Francisco might not be able to continue that trend in this one. They’re a lackluster 9-10 ATS this season and haven’t covered since Week 17 of the regular season, coming against the Commanders.
The Chiefs are certainly not the Commanders. They’re a much more well-oiled machine that thrives in this type of situation. All in all, of the 18 Fantasy Alarm staff members that were asked to submit a pick, just 4 of them sided with the 49ers against the spread.
With 14 staff members choosing the Chiefs side of their 49ers vs. Chiefs pick against the spread, we're going to plant our flag with this strong majority and pick the reigning champs to cover.
Fantasy Alarm Super Bowl 58 ATS Pick: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl Picks Against The Spread: Staff Predictions
Our four leading NFL analysts - Howard Bender, Jim Bowden, Jon Impemba and Andrew Cooper - are all picking KC’s side of the spread for Super Bowl LVIII.
Here's how our entire staff picked:
- Howard Bender: Chiefs +2
- Jim Bowden: Chiefs +2
- Jon Impemba: Chiefs +2
- James Grande: 49ers -2
- Andrew Cooper: Chiefs +2
- Dan Malin: 49ers -2
- Matt Selz: Chiefs +2
- Colby Conway: 49ers -2
- Iggy Gilbert: Chiefs +2
- Joe Gallina: Chiefs +2
- Ryan Kirksey: Chiefs +2
- Ray Kuhn: Chiefs +2
- Josh Wagner: 49ers -2
- Kevin Tompkins: Chiefs +2
- JB Barry: Chiefs +2
- Mike Iannone: Chiefs +2
- Chris Morais: Chiefs +2
- Andrew Phelps: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl Picks Against the Spread: History
Against the spread, favorites have gone 28-26-2 all time in the Super Bowl. The winning team traditionally is the same team that covers, as only 7 winning Super Bowl teams failed to cover the spread. Although favorites have covered more often than underdogs all time, recently, underdogs own a 15-8 ATS record over the last 23 Super Bowls.
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Player News
Free agent WR Chase Claypool revealed the severity of the toe injury he suffered in July 2024.
In a social media post, the 26-year-old receiver explains that he “tore a ligament and tendon” in his second toe on his left foot and has “been rehabbing, working out, and recovering everyday for the past year.” This explains his extended absence. Following the injury, Claypool was briefly placed on injured reserve in August 2024 before being released with an injury settlement. He is “back to being the strongest and fastest” he’s ever been and is “excited to step back out on the field.”
Free agent LB Jason Pierre-Paul hopes to sign with an NFL team, ideally the Giants, in “a full-circle moment.”
Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, “Pierre-Paul still believes he can help a team, that he can be a veteran closer.” The 36-year-old has continued training to remain NFL-ready despite failing to find a suitor for the 2024 season. He logged 22 defensive snaps, playing for both the Saints and Dolphins in 2023. His last sack occurred as a Raven, in a Wild Card Weekend loss to the Bengals in the prior season. Sitting at 94.5 career sacks, Pierre-Paul hopes to reach 100 as a part-time player in 2025.
The CFL’s Toronto Argonauts claimed Shedeur Sanders’ negotiating rights in case Sanders one day chooses to leave the NFL for the CFL.
There is no indication that Sanders is in contact with the Argonauts and we do not expect Sanders to leave the NFL for the CFL at this time. Every year in early July, just before NFL training camps begin, the CFL allows its teams to claim NFL players’ negotiating rights, on the off chance that the player is released or waived by his team and decides to pursue a career in Canada. Per the CFL’s Marshall Ferguson, “the CFL began releasing a few names here and there periodically, but now the full list is available for all to see from each of the nine teams.” Fans can rest assured that their high-profile, fifth-round rookie remains a Cleveland Brown.
Free agent CB Stephon Gilmore wants to play football in “the right situation” this season.
The 34-year-old veteran visited the Cowboys pre-draft but left without a contract. Gilmore is no longer an above-average starter, but he did force eight incompletions and record one interception last year. A playoff contender could benefit from signing Gilmore as an experienced option, but teams tend to not have high valuations on older cornerbacks.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport reports that Titans QB Cam Ward is adjusting to the NFL’s speed and field width while learning how to adjust protection against the blitz.
Ward is learning through trial and error, as many rookies do. The young quarterback is now aware that an open receiver in the NFL looks far different than it did in college, even when targeting a linebacker’s coverage. The NFL’s condensed field spacing has also reportedly required Ward to improve his awareness against the blitz. Per Davenport, Ward successfully showcased a lightbulb moment in this regard, which occurred “during team period when Ward recognized where the pressure was coming from and checked to a different protection to block it up.” Ward also notably signaled an audible to Calvin Ridley and connected with the veteran receiver for a touchdown. These are positive steps for a quarterback who currently profiles as a QB2 in re-draft formats.
Speaking to Rich Eisen about the Steelers’ contract talks with EDGE T.J. Watt, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said the “most likely” outcome is that the two sides agree to an extension that resets the market before the season opener.
Pelissero recently reported that the Steelers do not plan to trade Watt, and Watt’s record-setting goals are well known, so the most recent report makes sense. The team will do its best to ensure team-friendly outs exist later in the deal, but for now, Watt appears to be on track for a hefty payday sometime before September 7th. Pelissero states succinctly, Watt’s expected extension “is going to be north of Myles Garrett—it is going to be upwards of $40 million per year.”